甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/1 2 801 2437 2395 2560 2625 2510 2705 257 332 187 160 -880 2025/05/1 3 801 2460 2415 2565 2635 2515 2705 260 340 174 160 -899 2025/05/1 4 801 2525 2470 2575 2645 2515 2738 266 340 191 155 -1002 2025/05/1 5 801 2425 2418 2580 2645 2515 2738 262 332 132 155 -899 2025/05/1 6 801 2397 2375 2560 2645 2515 2730 261 332 107 60 -859 日度变化 0 -28 -43 -20 0 0 -8 -1 0 -25 -95 40 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5 ...

直纺短纤负荷(周) 显拉升,聚酯工厂的去库接近两周,下游出现 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 集中的补库,聚酯的库存已经转好。 涤纶短纤产销 58. 00% 64.00% 6. 00% (目万得资计 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 ■T325加工费(右轴) T325年深刻价格 会短坝金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 200 10000 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 202 4-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2023-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]

观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5月计入盛虹停车和进口正常 假设，库存将累积，但4月底低库存仍将交易，05若存在预期外供应 缺口，库存将维持低位，预计为做多提供安全边际。 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/12 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/04/3 0 | 801 | 2453 | 2415 | 2650 | 2660 | 2720 | 2755 | 258 | 340 | 218 | 170 | -812 | | 2025/05/0 6 | 801 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - PTA: Due to intensive PX maintenance, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. With domestic PTA device maintenance, PTA basis has strengthened, and some traders' concentrated restocking has caused market tightness. Due to the contraction of PTA and PX supply, the market's positive spread has emerged. It is rumored that mainstream factories are considering canceling warehouse receipts for contract supply. PTA month - spread has widened, polyester factories' inventory reduction is close to two weeks, and downstream has a round of concentrated restocking. Polyester inventory has improved. According to the balance sheet, PTA inventory will be significantly reduced in May, and port inventory will continue to decline. If polyester inventory remains strong, PTA inventory may continue to decrease in June. Polyester factories are less likely to cut production [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Trump's tariff policy has disrupted global trade, but the impact of ethane seems to have been minimized. East China MEG port inventory remains at over 700,000 tons. The load increase of coal - based MEG devices has pressured the market, but coal prices have rebounded. The profit of coal - based devices has been compressed, and mainstream MEG device load is about to be under maintenance, leading MEG to enter the inventory reduction stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Comparison - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 458.9 yuan/barrel on May 6, 2025, to 468.2 yuan/barrel on May 7, 2025, with an increase of 9.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1027.1 yuan/ton to 1063.5 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3080 to 1.3126. PTA spot price increased from 4480 yuan/ton to 4565 yuan/ton, and the main - contract price rose from 4362 yuan/ton to 4466 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 403.7 yuan/ton to 385.1 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 295.7 yuan/ton to 291.1 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis decreased from 123 to 108, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 102,622 to 98,978 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract price rose from 4130 yuan/ton to 4199 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha increased from (117.35) yuan/ton to (101.54) yuan/ton, MEG domestic price increased from 4190 yuan/ton to 4255 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased from 40 to 55 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 748 to 768, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 202 to 213 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price increased from 6420 to 6490, POY cash flow decreased from (64) to (89); FDY150D/96F price increased from 6610 to 6630, FDY cash flow decreased from (374) to (449); DTY150D/48F price increased from 7695 to 7715, DTY cash flow decreased from 11 to (64). The filament sales rate increased from 30% to 60%. In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price increased from 6385 to 6405, staple fiber cash flow decreased from 251 to 176, and the staple fiber sales rate increased from 73% to 125%. In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 to 5620, chip cash flow decreased from (44) to (59), and the chip sales rate increased from 37% to 70% [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 78.18%, PTA operating rate decreased from 73.93% to 71.03%, MEG operating rate remained at 58.80%, and polyester load remained at 89.96% [2]. c. Device Maintenance Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to conduct routine maintenance on its Huizhou PTA - 2 device starting from April 28, 2025, with a production capacity of 2.5 million tons, and plans to start routine maintenance on its Dalian PTA - 2 device around May 10, 2025, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In the expansion cycle, the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and they are in a callback and consolidation phase. Suggest a long - term view of supply surplus and a short - term view of narrow - range oscillations with a rebound - biased short position. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [1][3][4]. - **LPG**: It follows the cost side for oscillatory adjustments. In the long - term, it is bearish, and in the short - term, it is oscillatory. Suggest selling bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [1][8][9]. - **L**: The spot price is falling, with abundant supply and a weak oscillatory trend. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][12]. - **PP**: The basis is weakening, and the market is in a weak oscillatory state during the off - season. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][15]. - **PVC**: The market is in a contango structure, with limited upward momentum in the fundamentals and a weakening oscillatory trend. Short - term observation is recommended. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [1][17]. - **PX**: There is a supply - demand contraction, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to widen the px - sc spread is recommended. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [1][19]. - **PTA/P - R**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, but the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the ta - eg spread is recommended. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - side pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [1][25]. - **Glass**: The domestic loose monetary policy has limited impact on demand, and the market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [1][29]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is abundant, and the growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down. The market is bearish in the medium - term. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [1][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [1][32]. - **Urea**: Although the supply pressure is large, the fertilizer export growth is fast, and there is a bottom - support at the cost side. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1860 - 1920] [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to have a short - term rebound. BU is expected to be in the range of [3390 - 3450] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 1.81% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: OPEC+ started to increase production in April, and the increase rate exceeded expectations. The EIA estimated the global oil demand in 2025 to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 200 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 60 million barrels [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, the supply is in surplus, and the oil price fluctuates between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 7, the PG main contract closed at 4450 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **基本逻辑**: The upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and LPG's own fundamentals have few contradictions. The port inventory has increased, and the PDH operating rate has risen [8]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish. In the short - term, it is oscillatory. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - **行情回顾**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply is abundant. The agricultural film is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the export of products is under pressure. The basis is weakening, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been added, and the supply is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the export is stable. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. - **策略推荐**: Observe in the short - term, and V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is weakening, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to seize opportunities to widen the PX - SC spread. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [19]. - **策略推荐**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is relatively good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to seize opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the TA - EG spread. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [22]. - **策略推荐**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: Devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The to - port volume is high, and the demand side is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [25]. - **策略推荐**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation was stable, and the market was in a weak state. The basis in Shahe weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: The central bank's policies have limited impact on demand. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is improving slowly. The market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [29]. - **策略推荐**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, and the market was under pressure. The main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **基本逻辑**: Some soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may contract. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. - **策略推荐**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton [32]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has increased, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [32]. - **策略推荐**: MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [33].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2650 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2660 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2660 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2435 2380 2615 2660 2605 2705 258 340 185 175 -762 2025/05/0 7 801 2432 2388 2565 2650 2585 2695 258 340 185 170 -788 日度变化 0 -3 8 -50 -10 -20 -10 0 0 0 -5 -26 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iran's low methanol shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low by the end of April. If there is an unexpected supply gap in May, low inventory levels will provide a safety margin for long - positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: Overall polyethylene inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Polypropylene inventory has increased in upstream and mid - stream. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The PVC basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2440 to 2445, with a daily decrease of -8 on May 6. The import profit remained at 218, and the main contract basis increased from 30 to 175 [1]. - **Viewpoint**: Due to low shipments from Iran, inventory is expected to reach a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory may accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of North China LL decreased from 7330 to 7230, with a daily decrease of -70 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7150 to 6987, and the basis increased from 190 to 260 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of East China PP decreased from 7180 to 7125, with a daily decrease of -30 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7097 to 6995, and the basis increased from 70 to 110 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of calcium carbide method in East China decreased from 4850 to 4740, with a daily decrease of -60 on May 6. The basis increased from -180 to -170 [8][9]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/5/6 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/29 | 2025/4/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 483.6 | 471. 1 | -12. 50 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情上涨,去库存利好延续,现货基差上 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 925.6 | 1010. 5 | 84. 84 | 涨,抵消了原油偏弱带来的利空影响。节前业者观望 为主,公开成交不多。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2634 | 1. 2952 | 0. 0318 | | | | CFR中国PX | 756 | 748 | -8 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 178 | 190 | 12 | | | | PTA ...