1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: As of July 9, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with polysilicon up over 5%, coking coal up nearly 4%, and several other commodities up over 1% or 2%. Some contracts like international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel declined over 1%. Stock index futures mostly fell slightly, while treasury bond futures were mixed [7]. - **Commodity - Specific**: - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is strong, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and coking enterprises have a price - increase expectation. However, the supply - demand surplus situation has not been reversed, and the upside space is expected to be limited, with short - term trading likely to be volatile and slightly strong [3]. - **Copper**: The US copper tariff has been finalized, but the implementation time is uncertain. The supply shortage expectation may improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Under the current market sentiment of expecting price drops, caution is advised when short - selling [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and deviates from the fundamentals. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. If the demand recovers as expected, the price may be boosted [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has significantly decreased, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention. OPEC + plans to increase production, and the oil price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July, with attention to oil refinery ship purchases and imported soybean arrivals [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the US biodiesel policy [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, the inventory may accumulate, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the improvement of the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. Although the demand is weak, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with attention to export policies [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot - Spot Varieties - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is affected by imports and domestic production, and the demand is affected by downstream profits and production. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. - **Copper**: The US plans to impose tariffs on imported copper, affecting the price. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Caution is advised when short - selling [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened low and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, OPEC + plans to increase production, and the price is expected to trade in a range [11][12]. 3.2 Other Commodities - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by funds and weather, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [27].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a notable recovery in market risk appetite, approaching the 3500-point mark, supported by a low interest rate environment and expectations of policy stimulus [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a broad-based rally, with over 4200 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect and increased trading volume [3]. - The market's upward movement is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, reflecting a desensitization to tariff impacts [1]. - Key sectors leading the gains include telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, and construction materials, while banking and utilities experienced declines [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trajectory due to low interest rates and a recovering risk appetite, particularly in high-risk sectors like non-bank finance, media, and military industry [1]. - July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with potential high-low sector rotations, particularly in consumer goods and robotics, as well as semiconductor localization trends [2]. - The innovation drug sector is projected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2].

当地时间8日，德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔在德国联邦议院提交德国财政预算案时谈及目前欧盟和 美国的关税谈判。克林拜尔表示，欧盟希望能够与美国达成关税协议，但是这份协议必须是公平的，否 则欧盟将会对美国采取反制措施。德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔8日称，美国加征关税危及大西洋两 岸的就业，这场贸易冲突对所有人都有害，必须尽快结束。欧盟只有团结一致才能应对全球性挑战。 (央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The article discusses India's unexpected assertiveness against the United States, contrasting its previous cooperative stance [1][8] - The U.S. has issued a final ultimatum to 165 countries regarding tariffs, with a deadline for new agreements set for July 9 [3][5] - The tension in tariff negotiations has escalated, with India firmly stating that agriculture and dairy products are "red lines" that cannot be crossed [7][10] Group 2 - India's agricultural sector, which contributes 16% to its GDP and supports 580 million rural inhabitants, is a critical area of resistance against U.S. demands [10][12] - The U.S. has been pushing for zero tariffs on various agricultural products, but India has firmly rejected these demands, emphasizing the cultural significance of its agricultural practices [15][21] - India's large population and agricultural base provide it with strategic depth to withstand external pressures [22][25] Group 3 - The article highlights India's realization that it is not alone in resisting U.S. pressure, as other nations like Japan and the EU are also hesitant to compromise [25][29] - India's response to the U.S. is influenced by China's successful negotiation with the U.S., inspiring India to assert its own position [27][29] - The Indian government is shifting towards a more independent foreign policy, seeking true strategic autonomy rather than being a pawn in U.S. strategies [33][35]

Market Overview - The latest tariff threats from the Trump administration have led to a sell-off in risk assets, causing declines in U.S. stock index futures and European stock indices [1] - The U.S. plans to impose export restrictions on AI chips, resulting in a broad decline in European chip stocks [1] - Safe-haven assets like gold saw a price increase of nearly $20, while oil prices fell due to recent production increase news [1] U.S. Stock Futures - On July 4, the U.S. stock and bond markets were closed for Independence Day, but prior to the holiday, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.69%, Dow futures dropped by 0.61%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.71% [3][4] European Stock Indices - The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.48%, with a weekly decline of 0.46% [5] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 1.02%, accumulating a weekly drop of 0.69% [6] - The German DAX 30 index decreased by 0.61%, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [7] - The French CAC 40 index fell by 0.75%, with a slight weekly increase of 0.06% [7] - The UK FTSE 100 index remained flat, closing at 8822.91 points, with a weekly increase of 0.27% [8] Sector Performance - European chip stocks experienced a broad decline, with ASML Holdings dropping approximately 2.6% [9] - Following the announcement of anti-dumping duties on EU brandy by China's Ministry of Commerce, Remy Cointreau's stock fell by 7.2% before recovering to close up by 2% [9] Bond Market - The U.S. bond market was closed on July 4, but European bond markets showed strength on the preceding Friday [9] - The German 10-year bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK 10-year bond yield rose by 1.3 basis points [13] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.33%, closing at $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92% [21] - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down by 0.76%, closing at $66.49 per barrel [16]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has threatened to impose a 17% tariff on EU agricultural exports, escalating trade tensions ahead of a deadline for a trade agreement [1] Group 1: Trade Conflict - The U.S. has made a last-minute demand for a trade agreement with the EU, threatening a 20% tariff on all EU goods if no agreement is reached [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic received the U.S. demand during a meeting in Washington and communicated it to the ambassadors of the 27 member states [1] - EU Commission President von der Leyen expressed hope for a "principle agreement" to allow continued negotiations before a final deal is reached [1]

Market Overview - Increased tariff threats from Trump ahead of the July 9 negotiation deadline have heightened market tensions, leading to declines in U.S. stock futures and European stocks, particularly in the mining and automotive sectors [1][6] - Asian stock markets experienced fluctuations before closing flat, while cryptocurrencies and the U.S. dollar index weakened. Safe-haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold saw slight increases [1] Stock Performance - U.S. stock futures for the three major indices fell over 0.5% [1] - European stocks declined, with the German DAX down approximately 0.7%, the UK FTSE down over 0.3%, and the French CAC down over 0.9% [1][6] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.1%, while the South Korean composite index fell by 2% [1] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the euro rose by about 0.2% and the Korean won increased by over 0.2%. The yen appreciated by approximately 0.4%, and the Swiss franc rose by over 0.2% [2][8] Commodity Prices - Spot gold saw a slight increase of about 0.3%, while spot silver rose by approximately 0.2% [3][13] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 0.8% [4] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin declined by about 0.6%, and Ethereum dropped by approximately 1.5% [5] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that a significant trade outcome would be necessary to counteract recent positive news, as institutional investors remain cautious despite stock market highs [5] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicated that the recent rise in the S&P 500 is nearing a "sell signal," advising investors to consider reducing positions if the index exceeds 6300 points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of tariff threats by Trump ahead of the negotiation deadline on July 9 has heightened market tensions, leading to declines in U.S. stock futures, European stocks, and fluctuations in Asian markets, while safe-haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold saw slight increases [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock futures for the three major indices fell over 0.3% [1][7]. - European stocks experienced widespread declines, with the German DAX and UK FTSE both down over 0.2%, and the French CAC down over 0.7% [1][8]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.1%, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index fell by 0.04%, and the South Korean Composite Index dropped by 2% [1]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the British pound and euro increased by over 0.1%, and the South Korean won rose by over 0.4% [2]. - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.4%, and the Swiss franc rose by over 0.2% [2][13]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold saw a slight increase of about 0.3%, while spot silver declined by approximately 0.2% [3][16]. - U.S. crude oil prices fell by over 0.3%, and Brent crude oil dropped by over 0.5% [4]. Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 0.4%, and Ethereum fell by approximately 1.5% [5]. Investor Sentiment - Some investors are adopting a cautious approach, holding more cash in their portfolios due to concerns about market optimism among other fund managers, leading to reduced equity positions [6].

Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar has experienced a decline of over 2% this week, reaching a low of 96.99, marking its worst first half performance since 1986 with five consecutive months of decline [1] - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, rising 0.05% to 1.1705, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, the best since May 19 [8] - The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.5% to 1.37 CAD against the US dollar amid trade tensions [3] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump abruptly halted trade talks with Canada, accusing it of imposing new taxes on US tech companies, which he termed a "blatant attack" [3] - Canada plans to impose a digital services tax on US tech companies starting June 30, prompting Trump's strong opposition and a potential increase in tariffs on Canadian goods [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders anticipating a reduction of 65 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points a week prior [6] - Fed Chairman Powell's recent testimony has been interpreted as dovish, suggesting potential rate cuts if inflation does not rise as expected [5][6] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Trump's strong stance against Iran, including the possibility of military action if uranium enrichment reaches concerning levels, has heightened geopolitical risks [4] Group 5: Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data shows a surprising decline in consumer spending and an increase in unemployment claims, indicating a weakening economy [5]

科技股是本轮反弹中的绝对主角。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数自4月8日以来上涨近32%，远超大盘 表现，而纳斯达克综合指数也在周五收涨0.52%，收报20,273.46点，为2024年12月16日以来首次创出收盘 新高。 相比之下，道琼斯工业平均指数表现相对滞后。该指数周五上涨432.43点，涨幅1%，收报43,819.27点，自 4月以来累计涨幅约16%，仍较历史高点低约2.7%。以价值股、传统行业为主的道指未能跟上科技股驱动 的强势节奏。 Zacks Investment Management的客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示，"所有我们原本担忧的负面因素，尤 其是关税带来的冲击并未真正发生，经济数据的韧性也超过预期，这令市场重新恢复理性并走回正 轨。"他指出，目前市场已经回到了2月末的水平，而彼时的波动还未真正开始。 不过，尽管当前市场表现令人振奋，未来的上行动力仍有待观察。Granite Bay Wealth Management的首席 投资官Paul Stanley指出，市场目前正寻找新的催化剂来进一步推动股指上行。随着中东局势暂时缓和，投 资者的注意力逐渐回到美国国内政策的走向， ...