Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD), influenced by commodity price fluctuations and changing market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 20, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6698, showing a slight decline of 0.16% from the previous trading day, with fluctuations between 0.6685 and 0.6702 [1]. - The AUD has been under pressure since reaching a high of 0.68 on January 7, currently trapped in a consolidation range of 0.6650 to 0.6750 [1]. - The recent price action reflects a balance of bullish and bearish forces, with the AUD showing signs of hesitation [1]. Group 2: Commodity Price Influence - The AUD's performance is significantly influenced by the divergent trends in commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper [1]. - Iron ore prices remain above $130 per ton, supported by temporary demand from Chinese infrastructure projects, but are expected to decline by 4% by 2026 due to a sluggish real estate market in China [1]. - Conversely, copper prices are projected to rise by 1% by 2026, driven by demand from renewable energy technologies and AI infrastructure, providing some support for the AUD [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations regarding RBA policy have shifted from a focus on rate hikes to anticipations of early rate cuts, influenced by recent inflation data [2]. - The probability of a rate hike in February has decreased from 36% to 22% following a lower-than-expected CPI increase of 3.4% year-on-year [2]. - Some institutions are betting on a rate cut cycle, with JPMorgan predicting potential cuts as early as mid-2026 if core inflation falls below 3% [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for the AUD/USD shows increasing downward pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6745 and 0.6768, while support levels are at 0.6665 and 0.6650, with a potential test of the 0.6610-0.6595 range if the 0.6650 support is breached [2]. Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional views on the AUD's trajectory, with some predicting short-term volatility and others maintaining a bullish outlook for the medium term [3]. - JPMorgan forecasts a trading range of 0.66-0.68 for the AUD in the short term, while Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, projecting a rise to 0.69 by the third quarter [3]. - The overall outlook for 2026 suggests a strengthening AUD, with a projected average exchange rate of 0.69, although falling iron ore prices may limit appreciation [3]. Group 6: Risk Factors - Key risk factors that could disrupt the current trading range include upcoming inflation data from the RBA, developments in China's real estate policies, and fluctuations in the USD index [3]. - Monitoring the 0.6650 support level is crucial for assessing the potential for further short-term adjustments in the AUD [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. - For different sectors and varieties, the short - term judgments are mainly "oscillatory", with some showing "oscillatory upward" or "oscillatory downward" trends [16][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures price was 4728.6, with a daily increase of 0.17, a weekly increase of 0.11, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.8. The SSE 50 futures price was 3077.6, with a daily decrease of 0.08, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.74. The CSI 500 futures price was 8266, with a daily increase of 1.11, a weekly increase of 0.68, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.27. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8186.6, with a daily increase of 0.49, a weekly increase of 0.09, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.09 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price was 102.4, with no daily change, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.05. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures price was 105.785, with a daily decrease of 0.03, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.02. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures price was 108.04, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.17. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures price was 110.92, with a daily decrease of 0.23, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.44 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.3691, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.23, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.12. The US dollar mid - price was 6.9703 pips, with a daily increase of 32, a weekly decrease of 80, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 187 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.443 bp, with a daily decrease of 5.94, a weekly decrease of 2.97, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 53.91. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.8424 bp, with a daily decrease of 1.2, a weekly decrease of 3.58, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.49. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.24 bp, with a daily increase of 7 [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - Industries such as national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and consumer services had relatively high daily and weekly increases, while industries like computer, telecommunications, and non - banking finance had declines [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 59.22, with a daily increase of 0.08, a weekly increase of 0.75, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.15. ICE Brent crude oil price was 64.2, with a daily increase of 0.69, a weekly increase of 1.87, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.4. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.109, with a daily decrease of 1.11, a weekly decrease of 1.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 16.22. ICE UK natural gas price was 98.39, with a daily increase of 13.42, a weekly increase of 33.88, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 31.87 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 4601.1, with a daily decrease of 0.49, a weekly increase of 1.83, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.21. COMEX silver price was 89.945, with a daily decrease of 2.6, a weekly increase of 12.73, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 26.72 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 12803, with a daily decrease of 2.31, a weekly decrease of 1.5, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.45. LME aluminum price was 3134, with a daily decrease of 1.06, a weekly decrease of 0.06, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.57. LME zinc price was 3209, with a daily decrease of 3.18, a weekly increase of 1.76, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.66 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean price was 1056.25, with a daily increase of 0.31, a weekly decrease of 0.61, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.86. CBOT soybean oil price was 52.51, with a daily decrease of 0.87, no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.24, and a quarterly and annual increase of 8.16 [8]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 439.25, with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.22 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.47. Fuel oil price was 2526.6, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.38 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.11 [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper price was 101196.42, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.32 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.94. Aluminum price was affected by the potential shutdown of Mozal aluminum plant, with the price oscillating at a high level [12]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends, with rebar price decreasing and hot - rolled coil price having a certain increase in some periods. Iron ore price increased slightly, and coke and coking coal prices also had their own trends [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Prices of products such as soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil had different degrees of fluctuations [12]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The first half - week was driven by factors such as the weakening of the Fed's independence and better - than - expected US inflation data, while the second half - week was dragged down by factors such as the alleviation of concerns about key mineral tariffs, the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to initial jobless claims data [15]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, consumer spending showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation was postponed to June [15]. - **Domestic Macro**: Policy support focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, social financing data showed strong corporate loan and bond financing, and inflation improvement clues were clear [15]. - **Asset Views**: The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to oscillate upward, stock index options to oscillate, and Treasury bond futures to oscillate [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate upward [16]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Black Building Materials**: Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory upward trends [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory downward trends [18]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show different trends, with some oscillating upward, some oscillating downward, and most oscillating [18].

格隆汇1月20日｜上周澳大利亚消费者信心大幅下降，因消费者正在权衡下月初加息的可能性。根据澳 新银行(ANZ Bank)和民调机构Roy Morgan的一项调查，澳大利亚消费者信心在上周下降5.2点，至79.3 点，为18个月来的最低水平。货币市场行情已反映出澳大利亚央行下月加息的概率为30%，但如果本月 底公布的第四季度通胀数据显示通胀前景进一步恶化，这一概率可能会上升。澳大利亚央行已发出信 号，表示不会再进一步降息，同时还强调了近期通胀率已偏离2.5%的目标水平并呈上升趋势。澳新银 行经济学家Sophia Angala说："虽然我们预计澳大利亚央行将在2026年长期维持利率不变，但我们认为 今年上半年加息的风险已经上升。" ...

重点关注 1 月 23 日早上 8 ： 30 公布的日本制造业 PMI 、中午 ~ 下午公布的日央行政策决议、下午 17 ： 00 公布的欧元区制造业 PMI 、晚上 22:45 公布的标 普美国制造业 PMI 。 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人：夏雪（微信SuperSummerSnow） 美国：多项数据超预期 ，包括新房销售、成屋销售；零售销售环比；纽约联储制造业 PMI 和费城联储制造业景气指数；工业生产环比。 通胀则基本符合预期， 包括 CPI 和 PPI 。 欧元区 ： 欧元区去年 11 月工业生产环比和 1 月 Sentix 投资者信心指数超预期；法、意、德 12 月通胀终值均符合预期。 核心观点 日本 ： 经常账户差额超预期； PPI 同比符合预期。 1）美国上周多项经济数据超预期 ，包括新房销售、成屋销售；零售销售环比；纽约联储制造业PMI和费城联储制造业景气指数；工业生产环比；初请和续请失业 金人数。 通胀则基本符合预期 ， 包括CPI和PPI。2）重点关注1月23日发布的1月美欧日标普全球制造业PMI初值。 （二）未来一周重要经济数据及事件 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the new chair of the Federal Reserve has intensified with the emergence of Rick Rieder as a potential dark horse candidate, alongside established contenders Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [2][3]. Candidate Overview - Rick Rieder, currently the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, has reportedly performed well in interviews with President Trump, increasing his odds of nomination significantly [4]. - Rieder's background is notable as he lacks a traditional economics PhD, similar to current chair Jerome Powell, which may signal a shift in the profile of Fed leadership [4]. Monetary Policy Stance - Rieder advocates for lowering interest rates to around 3% as the "neutral level" and has a more lenient view on government deficits and inflation, suggesting that slightly higher inflation could be acceptable if it stabilizes debt dynamics and supports employment [5]. Market Predictions - Current betting markets indicate that Kevin Warsh remains the frontrunner for nomination, with Rieder's odds rising sharply to second place, followed by Christopher Waller [6]. Political Context - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted that Trump plans to announce the nominee around the Davos Forum to reduce market uncertainty. Hassett's potential continuation in his current role may narrow the competition to Rieder, Warsh, and Waller [8]. - The political environment is tense, with recent scrutiny of the Fed's renovation project leading to increased challenges for any nominee, but Rieder is viewed as a safer option due to his market-oriented background [8]. Confirmation Process - Mnuchin expressed confidence that the Senate will not block Trump's eventual nominee, indicating a belief in a smooth confirmation process [9].

Core Viewpoint - Turkey has recently waived visa requirements for Chinese tourists, leading to a surge in travel interest and related searches, but the cost of living and travel expenses in Turkey have significantly increased, making it less affordable than before [5][7][75]. Group 1: Travel Interest and Search Trends - Following the announcement of visa-free travel for Chinese citizens, travel-related searches surged, with Qunar seeing a 3.2 times increase and Tongcheng experiencing a 235% rise compared to the previous day [7]. - Many travelers have shifted their plans from traditional family visits during the Spring Festival to exploring attractions like Cappadocia and Istanbul [8]. Group 2: Cost of Living and Travel Expenses - Prices in Turkey have escalated dramatically, with a can of Coca-Cola priced at 210 Turkish Lira (approximately 33.9 RMB) and a simple salad costing around 500 RMB [12][41]. - The cost of dining out has also increased, with meals at fast-food chains like McDonald's reaching 210 Lira and Starbucks drinks costing around 203 Lira [23][25]. - The overall cost of tourism in Turkey has risen by 100% in less than six months, with significant price hikes in entrance fees to popular attractions [75][81]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The Turkish Lira has depreciated significantly, with the exchange rate changing from 7.4 Lira per USD in early 2021 to 43 Lira per USD currently, leading to increased prices for tourists [88]. - Many businesses have started quoting prices in Euros or USD to mitigate currency risk, making travel expenses comparable to those in major European cities [92]. Group 4: Tourism Industry Impact - The tourism sector is crucial for Turkey's economy, projected to contribute approximately 5.2 trillion Lira (around 12% of GDP) by 2025, supporting over 3.3 million jobs [123][124]. - Despite rising costs, Turkey remains an attractive destination due to its unique cultural and natural offerings, which continue to draw tourists [128][130].

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show strong overall performance with a projected real GDP annual growth rate of 5.3% by Q4 2025, driven by service consumption, intellectual property investment, and exports [2] - The CPI inflation rate for December 2025 is reported at 2.7%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI inflation is slightly lower at 2.6%, indicating a trend towards inflation differentiation [2] - The labor market is stabilizing, with initial jobless claims at 198,000, suggesting that the unemployment cycle may have peaked [3] Group 2: Financial Markets - US Treasury yields are expected to face short-term pressure due to potential tariff increases by Trump, but the long-term trend remains downward as the interest rate cycle continues [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, primarily due to persistent inflation concerns impacting high-valuation tech stocks [3] - The dollar is in a mixed state, supported by resilient employment and retail data, but facing potential credit concerns due to renewed tariff threats [4] Group 3: Chinese Economic Insights - Domestic housing transactions remain low, with new home sales down 41.5% and second-hand home sales down 18.6% in major cities [7] - Export activity shows signs of recovery, with a 3.1% increase in cargo throughput and a 5.5% rebound in container throughput, indicating a positive trend in mechanical and automotive exports [7] - Corporate financing is improving, with a year-on-year increase of 580 billion in corporate loans, contributing to a stable credit growth rate of 6.4% [8] Group 4: Policy and Market Strategies - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption through various initiatives, including a new round of subsidies for consumer goods [9] - The bond market is experiencing slight recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.84%, and expectations of continued support from monetary policy [10] - The A-share market is expected to slow down after a significant rally, with a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors as key growth drivers [11]

2026.01.19 本文字数：2251，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 葛唯尔 当地时间2026年1月19日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了2026年首份《世界经济展望》（WEO）更 新报告。这份题为《全球经济：在分歧的力量中保持平稳》的报告指出，尽管面临贸易政策剧烈波动、 地缘政治紧张以及财政压力等多重逆风，全球经济依然展现出适应能力与韧性。 报告显示，全球经济在看似平稳的增长预测下，正经历着深刻的内部结构分化：贸易政策转向带来 的"阻力"正被人工智能（AI）驱动的投资热潮、各国财政与货币政策的支持以及私营部门的灵活性所产 生的"助力"所抵消。 全球增长预期上修 根据最新预测，全球经济增长在2026年预计将保持在3.3%，较2015年10月的预测值上调0.2个百分点； 预计2027年增速略微放缓至3.2%，与预测前值持平。 这种增长势头的上修，在很大程度上归功于主要经济体超预期的表现及其内部动能的切换。 在发达经济体内部，增长动能出现了明显分化与重构。IMF预计发达经济体2026年将增长1.8%，较去年 10月的预测上调了0.2个百分点，2027年增长1.7%，与预测前值持平。 | | | | | ...

今日开盘，现货黄金价格急剧上涨近100美元，再度刷新历史高点，最高触及4689.39美元，目前在4669美元附近徘徊。此外，现货白银也日内暴涨逾 4%，最高触及94.070美元，目前在93.430美元附近徘徊。 上周五，美股三大股指小幅收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.17%，标普500指数跌0.06%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.06%。 关税大棒指向欧洲！ 消息面上，下一任美联储主席人选突生变数。 关于下一任美联储主席的提名人选，可能将在本周迎来结果。据报道，虽然候选名单曾包括贝莱德高管里克·里德和现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，但这两人 因与特朗普关系不够紧密，未能通过"忠诚度测试"。市场普遍预计，最终的选择会在凯文·哈塞特与凯文·沃什之间展开。 目前的迹象表明，凯文·哈塞特已接近出局。尽管他对特朗普极度忠诚，但特朗普上周五对哈塞特直言："我其实想把你留在这个位置上（白宫经济顾 问）。" 当地时间1月17日，美国总统特朗普在"真实社交"平台发布一张个人黑白照片，并自诩为"关税之王"。 同日，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关 ...

Inflation and Economic Indicators - December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations; core CPI at 2.6% year-on-year is the lowest since March 2021, better than the expected 2.7%[6] - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2026 is at 54.0, showing a rebound for two consecutive months, indicating improved consumer satisfaction regarding inflation[6] Market Performance - S&P 500 index decreased by 0.4% for the week but is up 1.4% year-to-date; Nasdaq index fell by 0.7% weekly and is up 1.2% year-to-date; Russell 2000 index rose by 2.2% weekly and is up 7.7% year-to-date[20] - The market sentiment has shifted to a "greed" zone, with the VIX closing at 15.86, below the critical value of 20[14] Earnings Reports - In the first week of Q4 earnings, 35 S&P 500 companies reported, with 67% exceeding revenue expectations and 79% surpassing EPS expectations, overall EPS exceeded expectations by 5.8%[22] - Financial and consumer discretionary sectors saw earnings upgrades, while energy and healthcare sectors experienced significant downgrades[22] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its slow decline, with retail sales showing strength; the probability of a rate cut in January is less than 5%[22] - The market is pricing in the first rate cut of 2026 after the new Federal Reserve chair is appointed, likely in June[22] Sector Performance - Among 36 sectors, 19 showed gains, with the top five performers being Coal II (+9.1%), Defense (+5.7%), Non-ferrous Metals (+5.2%), Electrical Equipment (+4.8%), and Consumer Staples (+4.8%)[22]