Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report from AVIC Futures dated August 22, 2025 [2] - The main view is that this week, the asphalt fundamentals continued the characteristics of weak supply and demand. The supply - side weekly output and operating rate decreased, and the demand - side shipment volume decreased slightly. The refinery inventory still showed a slight accumulation, while the social inventory decreased. The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the asphalt price is dominated by crude oil fluctuations. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes [6][62] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the BU2510 contract [6] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include low refinery inventory and marginal macro - improvement [9] - Bearish factors include lower - than - expected demand and insufficient upward drive on the cost side [9] Macroeconomic Analysis - The results of the meetings between the US and Russia, and the US and European countries basically met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. However, the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations still needs to be tracked [10] - The risk of "secondary tariffs" has subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for the time being, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [11] Data Analysis Supply - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 548,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from last week. Some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil, and some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns [12] - As of August 20, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly [22] Demand - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 391,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week. The demand weakened due to rainfall [23] - As of August 22, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 16.99%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from last week. Except for Southwest and South China, the capacity utilization rates in other regions remained stable [26] Import and Export - In July, domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [31] - In July, domestic asphalt exports were 55,700 tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [36] Inventory - As of August 22, the refinery inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 716,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The refinery shipments were poor due to the impact of rainfall on demand [46] - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The decrease was due to weak downstream demand and reduced refinery output [53] Spread - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt processing diluted weekly profit was - 474.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 20, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.97, and as of August 21, the asphalt basis was 255 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread remained stable [60]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation, not continuing the previous weak trend, and the price fluctuation range decreased compared with last week. The results of the meetings between the US President and the Russian President, as well as European leaders, met market expectations, reducing concerns about increased supply. The unexpected decline in US EIA crude oil inventories and seasonal improvement in demand supported oil prices. The market's consensus on shale oil cost support strongly supported WTI crude oil around $60 per barrel. After short - term negative factors materialized, geopolitical risks weakened, and the market focused on the crude oil fundamentals. With the unexpected decline in IEA crude oil inventories, strong demand, and cost support, the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Report Abstract - The results of the US - Russia and US - Europe meetings met market expectations, and the Fed's meeting minutes showed increased divergence among the Federal Open Market Committee on the monetary policy path. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. Key data included a 6.014 - million - barrel decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15, a 0.419 - million - barrel increase in EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, and a 0.223 - million - barrel increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory [7]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, and shale oil cost provided support [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The expectation of the consumption peak season faded, and the relationship between the US and Russia eased [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - **US - Russia and US - Europe meetings**: The meetings between the US and Russia, as well as the US and Europe, met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. The results were neutral, neither intensifying the situation nor reaching a comprehensive agreement. Continued tracking of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress was needed [12]. - **Fed's meeting minutes**: The Fed's meeting minutes in July showed increased divergence among Federal Reserve officials. The minutes had limited impact on the market, and the market focused on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [13]. - **"Secondary tariff" risk**: The risk of "secondary tariffs" subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for now, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [14]. 4. Data Analysis - **Supply**: OPEC's production increased month - on - month in July but was still lower than the production increase plan. The daily output increased by 263,000 barrels to 27.54 million barrels. The main contributors to the increase were Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while Iran's production decreased. US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, increasing the supply pressure. The number of US oil rigs increased by 1 [15][17][19]. - **Demand**: US crude oil consumption demand and gasoline demand increased month - on - month. The US refinery utilization rate remained high, with limited room for further increase. China's state - owned refinery utilization rate might have reached its peak, while the independent refinery utilization rate was in a climbing cycle. The profit of state - owned refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of independent refineries increased slightly [25][26][31]. - **Inventory**: US EIA crude oil inventory decreased month - on - month, while the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate. The Cushing area's crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the gasoline inventory decreased. It was expected that the gasoline inventory would enter a destocking cycle [41][45]. - **Crack spread**: The US crude oil crack spread increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year, indicating the continued recovery of US refined oil consumption [46]. 5.后市研判 - The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [49].

Group 1 - India and Russia announced an expansion of bilateral trade cooperation, indicating that U.S. tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil are unlikely to disrupt their partnership [1] - The bilateral trade volume between India and Russia is projected to reach a record $68.7 billion by March 2025, with India facing a trade deficit of $59 billion due to increased oil imports [1] - India aims to increase exports of pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and textiles to Russia to address the current trade imbalance [1] Group 2 - India has become the second-largest buyer of Russian oil, importing an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from 50,000 barrels per day in 2020 [2] - The geopolitical dynamics suggest that U.S. tariffs may serve as leverage for trade negotiations rather than solely targeting Russian oil revenue [3] - The ongoing energy cooperation between India and Russia is seen as a strategic alliance amidst global geopolitical tensions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in China's exports to Russia, which fell by 8.5% to $56.24 billion in the first seven months of 2025, particularly noting a 62% drop in automobile exports due to tightened import policies in Russia [2][5][18] - The upcoming visit of President Putin to China is seen as a strategic necessity for Russia to address economic pressures and to discuss bilateral trade and geopolitical dynamics [1][3][11] - Russia's economic growth is struggling, with a mere 1.4% year-on-year growth rate in Q1 2025, marking a two-year low, compounded by high inflation rates that affect consumer demand for imports [5][7][9] Group 2 - Despite the trade fluctuations, Russia remains heavily dependent on China, especially in energy exports, with Russia becoming China's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 13.5% of total imports in 2024 [9][11] - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with Russia needing to diversify its markets after losing access to European energy markets, making China increasingly vital for its economic stability [9][11][20] - The relationship between China and Russia is characterized by mutual benefits, with China needing energy resources and Russia requiring market access and technological support from China [15][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: All the futures varieties in the report are expected to show an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [1][3]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to rebound. The current Russia - Ukraine meeting still has certain uncertainties, and oil prices are slowly recovering from a pessimistic sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization, and supply reduction in September may support the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and demand in the north is relatively stable while that in the east is expected to recover. The market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range [3]. - **Polyester**: PX supply and demand continue to recover, and PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Ethylene glycol supply recovers well, and downstream demand is gradually improving [5]. - **Rubber**: Rubber raw materials are firm, tire demand and production are recovering, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic device maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments are stable. Port inventory is expected to increase, and methanol prices will oscillate narrowly [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and with the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream demand is expected to increase. Overall, it will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up. With the intervention of industrial hedging, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI October contract rose $0.81/barrel to $63.52/barrel, a 1.29% increase. Brent October contract rose $0.83/barrel to $67.67/barrel, a 1.24% increase. SC2510 contract closed at 492.9 yuan/barrel at night, a 1.27% increase. There are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and some oil fields have restarted production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil both rose. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories decreased. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by supply reduction in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.72%, EG2601 fell 0.09%. Some PTA devices are under planned - out maintenance, and downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber futures rose. The operating loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices in different regions were reported. Domestic device maintenance led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments were stable. Port inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the prices of polyolefin products changed. Supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak season [7][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that the result of the Russia - Ukraine issue would be known in about two weeks, and the US might adopt other strategies. The Trump administration is expected to double the tariffs on India on August 27 [12]. - Two oil tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude oil arrived in US waters on Thursday, which was the first import of Venezuelan oil after Chevron obtained a new license from the US government [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][17][20]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [31][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., including 01 - 05, 09 - 01 spreads [46][48][51]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio charts of some varieties [62][66][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [73][76][78]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research and many honors [80]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many awards [81]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis ability and many honors [82]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [83].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting fates of two AI companies, HeyGen and Manus, highlighting how regulatory compliance and strategic decisions have led to HeyGen's success and Manus's struggles amid U.S. scrutiny [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Backgrounds - HeyGen, founded by Chinese entrepreneurs, is an AI video generation platform that allows users to create professional videos quickly, supporting 175 languages and serving 85,000 global clients [3][4][26]. - Manus, also founded by Chinese entrepreneurs, operates in the AI space but has faced challenges due to U.S. regulatory investigations, particularly the Reverse CFIUS inquiry [1][2][22]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions and Compliance - HeyGen successfully relocated its headquarters from Shenzhen to Los Angeles in 2022 and completely divested from Chinese investors by 2023, effectively distancing itself from potential regulatory issues [20][23]. - Manus, in contrast, has retained its Chinese corporate structure and investors, which has drawn increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators, especially after its recent high-profile marketing efforts [25][28][29]. Group 3: Financial Trajectories - HeyGen raised approximately $9 million in seed funding from notable investors like Sequoia China and IDG Capital, followed by a $5.6 million round in 2023, leading to a valuation of $500 million [15][19][20]. - Manus's financial activities have been less clear, with its recent fundraising efforts occurring under the shadow of regulatory concerns, potentially limiting its growth prospects [25][28]. Group 4: Market Positioning and Risks - HeyGen has positioned itself as a "low-profile leader" in the AI video generation market, focusing on marketing and education applications, which appear to be less sensitive to regulatory scrutiny [26][27]. - Manus's high-profile marketing and attempts to enter the Chinese market have raised alarms among U.S. regulators, complicating its operational landscape and leading to mixed perceptions in both the U.S. and China [29][30]. Group 5: Lessons and Future Considerations - The experiences of HeyGen and Manus illustrate the importance of strategic positioning in the face of geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for companies to choose between markets rather than attempting to operate in both simultaneously [30][31]. - The article suggests that future AI entrepreneurs must carefully consider their corporate structures and compliance strategies to navigate the evolving regulatory landscape [36][37].

Group 1 - The relationship between India and the US has deteriorated rapidly, with Trump imposing significant tariffs on Indian goods, leading to economic turmoil in India [1][2] - India's exports to the US, particularly in jewelry, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, are facing severe crises, with 60% of jewelry, 80% of generic drugs, and 50% of textiles at risk of being destroyed [2][4] - The Bombay Stock Exchange lost $120 billion in market value within three days, and foreign direct investment in India plummeted to $3.5 million in July, a 99% decrease month-on-month [2] Group 2 - India's pharmaceutical companies, which supply 40% of the world's generic drugs, are at risk of facing billions in compensation claims due to potential supply disruptions caused by tariffs [4] - The Indian jewelry industry is struggling, with unsold inventory piling up, and workers resorting to bartering for basic necessities [4] - Trump aims to open India's agricultural market by demanding a reduction in tariffs on agricultural products, which poses a threat to India's small farmers [4][6] Group 3 - Modi is preparing to negotiate with the US by offering military procurement deals worth $3 billion and increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas while maintaining Russian oil purchases [6] - The US is leveraging geopolitical pressures, asking India to purchase energy resources from the EU and Japan and to take a stronger stance against China [6] - Modi's strategy has shifted towards engaging with China and other regions, including initiating free trade talks with Gulf countries and ASEAN, in response to US pressure [7][9]

Core Insights - Tungsten has emerged as a critical resource in military industrial applications, with a melting point of 3400°C and hardness second only to diamond, making it essential for armor-piercing ammunition, missile engine components, and advanced chip manufacturing [1][7]. Resource Comparison - Global tungsten reserves are approximately 4.6 million tons, with China holding 2.4 million tons (52.17%), Russia at 450,000 tons, and the U.S. at only 140,000 tons [3]. - In China, the Jiangxi Gannan region hosts significant tungsten deposits, with the Zhu Xi tungsten mine and Wu Ning Da Hu Tang tungsten mine holding reserves of 2.86 million tons and 1.06 million tons, respectively, surpassing the combined reserves of the U.S. and Russia [3]. U.S. and Russian Challenges - The U.S. has ceased commercial tungsten mining since 2015, relying on imports for 58% of its tungsten alloy needs, primarily from China [5]. - Russia's tungsten mining is hindered by extreme environmental conditions and high transportation costs, limiting its production capacity to 3,000 tons per year, which is only one-twentieth of China's output [5]. Military Applications - Tungsten's military value is highlighted in the Ukraine conflict, where tungsten alloy armor-piercing shells can penetrate thick armor due to their high density [7]. - The U.S. military consumes over 6,000 tons of tungsten annually, and any disruption in the supply chain could cripple half of its weapon production lines [7]. Supply Chain Control - China controls the entire tungsten supply chain, from mining to high-end processing, implementing annual quotas and monopolizing deep processing technologies, which increases costs for Western companies by 30% [9]. - Export restrictions on tungsten products starting in 2025 have already led to a 25% drop in export volumes, pushing international tungsten prices close to historical highs [9]. Historical Context - The competition for tungsten resources dates back to the 1930s, with significant historical events involving tungsten trade impacting military capabilities during World War II and the Cold War [12][14]. - The ongoing "tungsten war" reflects the geopolitical struggle for resource control, with China transitioning from a resource exporter to a technology price setter [16]. Future Implications - The strategic importance of tungsten is underscored by its applications in advanced technologies, such as nano tungsten wires for chip etching and tungsten-molybdenum alloys for hypersonic missiles [16]. - The potential for a supply disruption from China is recognized as a top-tier risk for the U.S. military, with significant implications for various industries, including aerospace and semiconductors [16].

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical and economic dynamics of a "three-nation shadow war" involving China, India, and Russia, highlighting China's significant role in the evolving global energy landscape [1][6]. Group 1: India's Oil Procurement Strategy - India has reduced its oil imports from Russia due to concerns over potential punitive tariffs from the U.S., which could reach up to 50%, significantly increasing costs for Indian exporters [1][4]. - As a result, Indian refineries are seeking alternative high-priced oil sources from the U.S., Brazil, and the Middle East, even if it means paying an additional $8 per barrel [1][4]. Group 2: Russia's Response to India's Withdrawal - With India being a major buyer of Russian oil, its exit has created a need for Russia to find new markets, leading to attractive offers for Chinese refiners, such as a $1 per barrel discount on Urals crude for October delivery [1][3]. - Russia's oil exports are heavily reliant on China, with 34% of its export revenue now depending on Chinese purchases following India's withdrawal [4][6]. Group 3: China's Strategic Moves - Chinese refiners quickly secured 15 batches of Russian oil, totaling around 10 million barrels, capitalizing on the lower prices, which could save them tens of millions of dollars [3][4]. - The Chinese refining sector is well-equipped to process high-sulfur Urals crude, and this procurement aligns with China's strategy to enhance energy security while reducing dependence on other oil sources [5][6]. Group 4: The Broader Implications - The shift in oil procurement dynamics has strengthened the energy ties between China and Russia, with predictions indicating a 43% increase in Russian oil exports to China by Q1 2025 [8]. - The article suggests that the geopolitical maneuvering has inadvertently benefited Russia, pushing it closer to China while complicating India's energy strategy amid U.S. pressures [6][8].