Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has recently experienced significant volatility, with a notable rebound after initially breaking below the critical support level of 146.20, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market [1]. Market Analysis - The current focus is on the key resistance area between 147.40 and 148.00, which has previously served as a pivotal point for multiple highs, particularly the round number of 148, acting as a potential dividing line for market sentiment [1]. - A breakthrough above this resistance could lead to targets near the 200-day moving average and the monthly high around 149, although current momentum indicators like MACD and RSI suggest that upward momentum may need to build further before a sustained rally occurs [1]. Support Levels - The support zone between 146.00 and 146.20 has proven to be reliable following a previous false breakout, but a drop below 146 could lead to further declines towards 145.50 or even 145.00 [3]. Economic Context - Recent economic data from Japan has been disappointing, with July's core machinery orders declining by 4.6% month-on-month, raising concerns about the economic outlook [3]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, its hawkish stance has provided some support for the USD, while market attention is increasingly on the Bank of Japan's potential policy actions amid rising inflation and a tightening labor market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months since December of the previous year, aligning with market expectations [1][1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The 25 basis point rate cut was anticipated by the market due to weakening employment and moderate inflation, leading the Fed to shift its risk balance towards employment [1][1]. - The Fed's statement emphasized that this rate cut is a risk management measure, with future policy decisions dependent on incoming data [1][1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, with the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields initially declining before rebounding, while U.S. stocks experienced a brief rise followed by volatility [1][1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the focus of the Fed's monetary policy decisions has shifted from inflation to employment, with a high probability of another rate cut in October due to confirmed risks in the job market [1][1]. - By December, the Fed may decide on further rate cuts based on employment performance [1][1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut restricts the decline of copper prices. The signals given by the Fed are mixed, causing major assets to fluctuate. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,560, with a daily decline of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 79,880, with a decline of 0.84%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,974, with a decline of 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 61,934, a decrease of 8,713 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 179,082, an increase of 4,068. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 27,540, an increase of 10,725, and the open interest was 293,000, an increase of 982 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 33,291, a decrease of 401, and the LME Copper inventory was 149,775, a decrease of 1,175. The LME Copper cancellation warrant ratio was 9.65%, a decrease of 0.82% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 71.13, a decrease of 11.87 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 74,000, a decrease of 200 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, admitted the weakening of the labor market, and mentioned rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year. Powell said the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut at this meeting was not high [1]. - **Industry News**: Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons. In the first seven months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 1.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down for rescue operations. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year. China's copper production increased slightly in August and is expected to decline in September [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜程鹏 兰素英 当地时间9月17日下午，北京时间今天（9月18日）凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息，预计年内还将降息两次。联邦公开市场委员会以11比1的投票结果通过降息25个基点 的决定。刚刚就职的美联储理事、目前仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的斯蒂芬·米兰是唯一持不同意见者，他主张降息50个基点。在今年7月货币政策会 议上不同意维持利率不变的两位理事米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒对本次会议批准的降息幅度表示满意。 美联储主席鲍威尔当天在回答记者提问时，再次强调了美联储的独立性。美国总统特朗普自今年1月上任以来持续施压美联储降息，并提名白宫经济顾问 委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事。鲍威尔还证实，美联储正在推行10%的减员计划，涵盖理事会及所有储备银行——完成后美联储雇员规模将基 本回归十年前水平。 国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）表示，9月的降息决策是一个政治与经济的双面镜，25个基点显得有点 少，50个基 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策例会后的记者会上表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，美联储需 要平衡"双重使命的两端"。被问及有新的理事成员加入，鲍威尔强调美联储将坚定致力于保持其独立 性。对于25个基点的降息幅度，他认为市场已经提前消化了预期，但此次降息非常重要，是对劳动力市 场的支持。 声明称，最近的指标表明美国上半年经济活动有所放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于低 位。通胀率有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济 前景不确定性仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并判断就业形势的下行风险已经上 升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4% 至4.25%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平 衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投票反对此次利率决策，主张将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调50个基点。 当天，美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，与6月时相比，美联储将今年的GDP增速预期中值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 is crucial as it influences not only U.S. interest rates but also global capital flows and economic policies of other countries [1][7]. Meeting Schedule - FOMC holds eight meetings annually, with four key meetings in March, June, September, and December, where economic projections and the "dot plot" are released, serving as indicators for future monetary policy [2][3]. Meeting Process - The FOMC meeting consists of several steps: economic data presentations, policy discussions, voting on the federal funds rate, and the release of a statement that is closely analyzed by the market [3][4][5][6]. Impact on Interest Rates - FOMC decisions directly affect U.S. dollar interest rates, influencing mortgage rates, corporate financing costs, and savings returns, which are critical for American households [7]. Key Focus Areas - The September meeting is particularly noteworthy due to the potential for a shift in monetary policy, with market speculation about a possible 25 basis point rate cut, which could signal a move towards easing [9][10]. Core Highlights - The meeting will focus on whether to cut rates, the release of the economic projections and dot plot, and the press conference by Chairman Powell, which will address the Fed's independence amid political pressures [10].

可以说，美联储最新利率决议的最大的意外是：只有一票反对。美联储主席鲍威尔在不利局面下，依然 成功促成了本周货币政策会议上几乎一致的共识，新任理事米兰是唯一一个投票反对降息25个基点的 人。米兰是特朗普的亲密盟友，他刚在周二宣誓就任临时美联储理事。他反对的理由是支持更大幅度的 降息——这正是特朗普几个月来一直要求的。不过，理事沃勒和鲍曼在七月份曾提出过鸽派异议，但这 次并未再如此表态。毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示："很明显，鲍威尔成功把'猫赶到了一起'(把 意见不和的人都拢到一起）。"（格隆汇） ...

Stocks turned in a lackluster performance throughout much of the session on Wednesday before seeing substantial volatility in afternoon trading following the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated monetary policy announcement.The major averages showed wild swings back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing mixed. While the Dow climbed 260.42 points or 0.6 percent to 46,018.32, the S&P 500 edged down 6.41 points or 0.1 percent to 6,600.35 and the Nasdaq fell 72.63 points or 0.3 percent ...

特朗普发动关税战以来，美国金融市场屡受重创，象征美国经济标志的美联储正迎来一次关键性的大变革。 9月17日，美联储就要召开联邦公开市场委员会会议了，该会议也被称为FOMC会议。 FOMC隶属于联邦储备系统，主要任务是决定美国货币政策，通过货币调控，达到经济增长，及物价稳定，可以说，这种会议对美国的影响是巨大的。 会议召开前夕，一组来自劳动力市场的数据彻底改变了市场对美联储货币政策的预期调整计划。 美国劳工部于9月12日公布的非农就业年度修正数据显示，2025年3月，基期的非农就业总数被大幅下修91.1万人，是自1979年以来最大的一次年度修正。 配合此前发布的数据，这一数据直接推动市场对美联储9月降息的预期达到了板上钉钉的程度。联邦基金期货市场已定价，9月将降息25个基点，全年来看， 市场押注降息总次数达2.81次（约70.3个基点）。 更重要的是，特朗普派理事加入会议，美联储独立性受到了重创。 事情是这样的，9月10日，美国参议院银行委员会批准了特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰，他将于9月16日接受参议院全体投票。由于共和党控制多数席 位，其通过没有任何悬念。 这意味着，米兰或将参与9月17日的FOMC会议， ...

Group 1: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.19% to 839.74 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.41% to 10,043.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.13% to 3,729.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.01% to 42.92 US dollars/ounce [1] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.04%, and the US dollar index was reported at 96.65 [1] - For precious metals, prices and trading volume data for various contracts such as Au(T+D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF, Ag(T+D), London Silver, SLV Silver ETF, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3] - Detailed data on gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other aspects of COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., were provided, along with changes and historical quantiles [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - The key retail data released yesterday exceeded market expectations, suppressing the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The month-on-month value of US retail sales in August was 0.6%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%. After the data was released, precious metal prices declined in the short term [1] - The most important event currently influencing the Fed's monetary policy is the Fed's interest rate meeting early tomorrow morning. The strong retail data will reduce the probability of an overseas recession in the medium term. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be a "preventive interest rate cut" rather than a "recessionary interest rate cut," which is a more significant positive factor for silver with strong industrial attributes [1] Group 3: Historical Performance and Current Situation - Historically, gold has benefited from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver price increases have been driven by expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy [2] - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting has marked the beginning of a new round of interest rate cut cycles by the Fed. The possibility of Hassett becoming the Fed Chairman means a fundamental change in the nature of the Fed's monetary policy, shifting from a decision based on employment and inflation data to a policy tool of the US President. Both in terms of expectations and reality, the current macro - background is favorable for the price increase of precious metals, especially silver [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 816 - 860 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9,710 - 10,800 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 5: Graphical Analysis - Multiple graphs were presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, actual interest rates; the relationship between Shanghai Gold price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai Gold; the relationship between COMEX silver price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai Silver; the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices; the total positions of gold and silver ETFs; and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [7][9][11]