投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘海外金银价格的纷纷冲高回落，白银高位下挫近 10%。我们认为这是短期市场累 计较大涨幅后，由资 ...

1月26日，黄金和白银价格再创新高。伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度突破5100美元／盎司，年内涨幅超 18%；伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破110美元／盎司，年内涨幅超50%。今年以来，贵金属价格震荡 走高，笔者认为，核心驱动来自贸易冲突、全球央行购金、地缘风险三方面。 首先，贸易冲突再次升级，美欧关税风波又起。美国总统特朗普1月17日表示，除非美国获准购买格陵 兰岛，否则将自2月1日起对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、荷兰、芬兰和英国的商品加征10%额外进 口关税。虽然之后特朗普宣称暂时停止加征关税，但贸易摩擦概率陡然上升。另外，欧盟可能考虑采取 反制措施，整体环境仍对美元不利。整体来看，贸易冲突对美元构成负面影响。投资者权衡美欧贸易紧 张局势重燃以及美国最高法院可能就关税合法性作出裁决的潜在影响，以及市场担忧美欧贸易战可能造 成破坏性影响，一定程度上有利于贵金属的避险溢价。 其次，全球央行购金刺激需求，美债遭抛售利空美元。丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension近日表示，将 在月底前出售其持有的所有国债，理由是特朗普总统任内的信用风险上升。该基金首席投资官表示，美 国总体上信用状况不佳，从长远来看，美国政府的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market reached a milestone on January 26, 2026, as both spot gold and COMEX gold futures prices surpassed the psychological threshold of $5,000 per ounce, marking the highest record in financial history. This breakout has led to aggressive buying in the options market, indicating strong consensus among market players for a "bull market second half" in gold [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On the day of the price surge, gold prices increased by 2.5%, surpassing the $5,100 mark, which also boosted the entire metal sector. This rally is partly attributed to the resumption of "fiat currency devaluation trades," as investors shift from sovereign bonds and currencies to hard assets like gold and silver for safety [1]. - The breakthrough of the $5,000 level triggered a rare "gamma squeeze" effect in the options market, forcing many volatility sellers to cover their positions in both spot and futures markets, further driving up gold prices [4]. - The implied volatility of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange has reached its highest level since the onset of the global pandemic in March 2020, with significant activity in call spreads indicating bullish sentiment among traders [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are actively buying call spreads on SPDR Gold Shares, including approximately 70,000 contracts for the September 590/595 spread and 37,000 contracts for the March 510/515 spread, indicating a low-cost strategy to position for further price increases in the coming months [5]. - According to analysts, if the ETF price rises by 10.1%, the potential return on the March position could reach 420% [5]. Group 3: Institutional Inflows - In January, the U.S. listed gold ETF sector saw a total inflow of $4.7 billion, with over half directed towards SPDR Gold Shares, reflecting strong institutional inflows and proactive long positions by market makers in anticipation of the $5,000 breakthrough [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of dollar depreciation are driving demand for gold, as institutional investors increase their allocation to gold in their asset portfolios to historical highs [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major Wall Street banks have quickly raised their price targets for gold in 2026, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the $5,000 breakthrough signifies a "sovereign value revaluation" phase, raising its year-end target to $5,400. Bank of America is even more optimistic, predicting that gold could reach $6,000 if geopolitical tensions do not ease [9]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, analysts caution that entering the "vacuum zone" above $5,000 may lead to increased volatility, necessitating vigilance against potential high-level fluctuations driven by momentum trading [9].

1月26日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价升至一周多以来的最高点，因为市场重新关注需求强 劲和供应中断的预期，而锡价在触及纪录高点后回落，因中国出台持仓限额相关政策。 伦敦时间1月26日17:00(北京时间1月27日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨84美元，或0.64%，收报每吨 13,199.0美元，盘中曾触及13,311美元，为1月14日以来最高。 | | 1月26日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 茶跌 | 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 13,199.00 ↑ | +84.00 ↑ +0.64% | | | 三个月期铝 | 3,188.50 1 | +19.50 ↑ +0.62% | | | 三个月期锌 | 3,342.50 ↑ | +82.00 ↑ +2.51% | | | 三个月期铅 | 2,038.00 1 | +12.00 ↑ +0.59% | | | 三个月期镇 | 18,522.00 | -234.00 -1.25% | | | 三个月期锡 | | 54,232.00 -2,584.00 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant role of non-ferrous metals in modern society, highlighting their importance in various applications from electronics to renewable energy [1][3] - Recent price surges in metals like gold and copper indicate a unique phase in the economic cycle, driven by structural forces rather than traditional market dynamics [2][4] Group 1: Gold - Gold has seen a remarkable increase, starting from $1,614 per ounce in September 2022 to over $5,000, marking a more than 200% increase [4] - Factors such as geopolitical instability, the U.S. debt crisis, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influencing gold prices, but the extent of the price increase suggests deeper structural changes [7][10] - The trend of "de-dollarization" and rising global uncertainties are leading to a renewed interest in gold as a non-sovereign store of value [7][10][13] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices have risen by 43% over the past year, currently hovering around 100,000 yuan per ton, driven by demand from energy transition, AI, and large-scale grid investments [14][17] - Supply constraints, including declining ore grades and limited new capacity, are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance for copper [17][18] - Aluminum prices have reached a four-year high due to production caps and changing demand dynamics, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [19][21] Group 3: Strategic Resources - Rare earth metals are increasingly important in the context of U.S.-China trade tensions, with China holding a complete supply chain advantage [22][24] - Tungsten has seen a nearly 200% price increase, driven by its critical role in high-end manufacturing and defense industries [24][26] - Other metals like tin, lithium, and cobalt are also gaining attention due to their connections to AI, energy transitions, and national security considerations [26] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should consider diversified exposure to the non-ferrous metals sector through ETFs, rather than attempting to predict individual metal price movements [27][33] - The Zhongzheng Segmented Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index offers a systematic approach to investing in this sector, covering 50 listed companies related to non-ferrous metals [28][35] - This index allocates approximately 45% to industrial metals, 13% to gold, and the remainder to strategic resources, providing a balanced investment perspective [35][37]

Group 1 - The North Exchange's new share subscription has frozen 1.0588 trillion yuan, setting a record, attracting significant cash due to its cash subscription model, which differs from the lottery-based model of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [3] - The recent volatility in precious metals, with gold briefly rising to $5,110 before falling below $5,000 and silver experiencing a 14% surge followed by a decline, is seen as normal short-term fluctuation, with long-term trends remaining intact [4] - The U.S. government's investment of $1.6 billion in domestic rare earth companies, acquiring a 10% stake, highlights the strategic value of rare earths, reinforcing the importance of companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth in the global market [4] Group 2 - The recent surge in active equity funds, with a notable 7 billion yuan in new subscriptions, indicates a shift in market sentiment, suggesting renewed confidence in fund managers' stock-picking abilities [5] - The acquisition of overseas gold assets by Zijin Mining for 28 billion yuan signals a bullish outlook on gold prices, reflecting confidence in the long-term value of the gold sector [6] - The focus on "resource products + high technology" as key investment themes suggests that investors should concentrate on sectors like rare earths and humanoid robotics for future opportunities [6]

原油周报：风险偏好增强，地缘影响持续 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周原油走势相对平稳，市场情绪好转，交易仍然主要围绕着地缘波动。包括总统特朗普软对伊朗的表态，在格 陵兰问题上的博弈，以及乌克兰-俄罗斯和平谈判的可能。叠加其余如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田短暂中断的扰动以及 欧美寒潮的支撑，增加了油价的波动，总体盘面偏平稳。后期来看，地缘扰动可能进一步走强，军事集结本身就 是最大的不确定性，为油价提供了间歇性的、事件驱动型的上涨动力。 【策略】 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 单边：震荡偏强。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 ...

当地时间1月26日，美股三大指数在波动中集体收涨，道琼斯指数上涨313.69点，涨幅0.64%，报49412.40点；标普500指数涨0.50%，报6950.23点；纳斯达克 指数涨0.43%，报23601.36点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 49412.40 | 23601.36 | 6950.1 | | +313.69 +0.64% +100.12 +0.43% +34.62 + | | | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500 | | 7828.96 | 25883.50 | 6979 ! | | -49.42 -0.63% +35.00 +0.14% | | -1.75 | | 美国国债 | | | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年前 | | 3.635 | 4.215 | 3.59 | | -0.52bp | 0.00bp | +0.64b | | 5年美债期货 | 10年美债期货 | 2年美债! | | 108'242 | 111'255 | 104'04 | | -0.02 -0.02% | -0.03 -0.03% ...

【头条要闻】 贵金属惊天逆转！黄金白银刷新历史新高后巨震，全球资金在躲什么？ 黄金与白银在刷新历史高点后大幅回调，现货白银在创下117.74美元/盎司的历史新高后一路回调，此前 一度涨近14%。现货黄金一度向下跌破5000美元/盎司，此前曾上涨2.5%，盘中最高突破5110美元/盎 司。 大有期货表示，贵金属市场延续强势，主要受到多重因素共同驱动，短期需警惕技术性回调风险，长期 前景仍与全球宏观政策及去美元化趋势紧密相连。申万宏源证券认为，短期来看，金价因地缘因素快速 走高，该因素缓和后并未明显回落，反而创新高，反映出短期较强的势头。中长期视角来看，黄金已逐 渐从"避险资产"转型为"全球资产配置核心工具"，央行购金、去美元化、美债信用风险三重逻辑未变， 中长期配置价值仍存。 证券时报头条评论：以差异化披露推动"龙虎榜"高质量发展 据新华社报道，印度东部西孟加拉邦近期出现尼帕病毒感染病例，目前已报告5例确诊病例，其中一名 患者病情危重。泰国、尼泊尔等国已在机场和边境口岸加强防疫检测。 报道称，近100人被要求居家隔离，感染者正在该邦首府加尔各答及周边医院接受治疗，其中一名患者 病情危重。据世界卫生组织（WHO） ...

当地时间1月26日，美股三大股指集体收涨，道指涨0.64%，标普500指数涨0.5%，纳指涨0.43%。美股芯片股多数下跌，芯片巨头英特尔跌逾5%，超威半 导体跌逾3%，美光科技跌逾2%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘跌0.63%，百度集团跌超3%，小鹏汽车跌超2%。 贵金属方面，现货黄金与现货白银在刷新历史高点后大幅回调。 美股大型科技股多数上涨 东证期货表示，美国经济数据维持韧性，美联储短期降息可能不大，预计1月继续按兵不动。同时，新任美联储主席人选迟迟未公布，市场对美联储独立 性的担忧也在不断发酵，导致美元资产吸引力降低。展望后市，随着1月议息会议与科技巨头财报季的双重压力临近，预计市场情绪保持谨慎，美股延续 高位震荡，波动率或进一步加大。 Wind数据显示，截至当地时间1月26日收盘，道指涨0.64%报49412.4点，标普500指数涨0.5%报6950.23点，纳指涨0.43%报23601.36点。 万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.71%。其中，苹果涨近3%，META涨逾2%，谷歌涨逾1%，微软小幅上涨，亚马逊、英伟达小幅下跌，特斯拉跌逾3%。 美股芯片股多数下跌，费城半导体指数跌0.39%，英特尔跌逾5%， ...