摘要今日周三（11月26日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4160美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4160.70美元/盎司，涨幅0.75%，最高上探至4169.20美元/盎司，最低触及4129.07美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 针对美国24日将委"太阳集团"列为"外国恐怖组织"（指其由马杜罗及政府高层领导），委外长希尔驳斥 称该组织不存在，谴责美方借此抹黑。近期，美国以"缉毒"为名在委附近加勒比海域部署多艘军舰；9 月初至今，美军在加勒比海和东太平洋击沉超20艘所谓"贩毒船"，致80余人死亡。但美国缉毒署近年报 告显示，委并非流入美毒品主要来源地。 委政府多次指责，美国意图通过军事威胁策动其政权更迭，并在拉美推进军事扩张。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 经济不确定性、地缘动荡与市场对美联储持续宽松的预期，仍将在短期支撑金价。尽管金价在4200美 元/盎司下方盘整，交易员们仍在等待新的催化剂，但黄金价格仍呈现上涨趋势。相对强弱指数(RSI)虽 然持平，但仍高于50的阈值，表明买方占据主导地位。 金价第一个关键阻力位是4200美元/盎司，其次是11月13日的高点4245美元/盎司。如果突破后者 ...

肥料占据玉米生产成本的35%（照片为美国伊利诺伊州，reuters） 肥料价格创三年来新高 含有磷和氮的磷酸二铵（DAP）的国际价格8月达到每吨795美元，创下三年来的高点。9月价格小幅回 落至每吨780美元，尽管如此，仍比年初上涨了34%。 肥料价格受地缘政治风险左右。2022年，因俄乌冲突，肥料价格曾急速上涨。原因是来自全球最大肥料 出口国俄罗斯的供应不确定性上升。 肥料的原料磷矿石的全球总产量中，中国占46%。中国、摩洛哥、美国、俄罗斯这四个国家的磷矿石产 量合计占到全球的70%以上。中国于10月中旬暂停出口尿素等肥料，动摇了全球供应链…… 国际肥料价格正再度攀升。背后的原因是肥料生产地集中于中国、俄罗斯等国家，而地缘政治紧张导致 供应不稳定。中国于10月中旬暂停出口尿素等肥料，动摇了全球供应链。肥料农业生产不可或缺的物 资，其价格高涨及供应受限可能会对食品价格形成上涨压力。 与稀土管制相似 中国10月中旬暂停了氮肥尿素及磷酸二铵的出口。2024年，中国氮肥出口量比上年减少90%以上，尽管 今年春季以后似乎曾出现扩大出口的动向，但如今又再度转向实施出口管制。这种做法与中国将稀土当 作武器进行出口管制的做 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Five Minerals Futures Morning Report | Non-ferrous Metals [1][31][78] - Date: November 26, 2025 Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to dovish Fed statements, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand [5] - Aluminum prices are likely to strengthen after adjustment as global visible inventory is low and supply disruptions are expected, despite the approaching off - season [8] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and rising inventory [10] - Zinc prices are predicted to be weak in the short term as the zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and recent financial assets are performing weakly [12] - Tin prices are expected to be in a tight - balance state in the short term and may fluctuate, with support from emerging demand and potential supply increases [14] - Nickel prices are likely to be under pressure in the short term due to supply increases and weak demand [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have significant market differences, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on first - quarter cell production and equity market sentiment [21] - Alumina prices are suggested to be observed in the short term as the industry has over - capacity and potential supply - side changes [24] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate as the market has a mixed situation of price increases and weak demand [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to be volatile in the short term with strong cost support and average demand [30] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: Offshore RMB strengthened, oil prices were pressured, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and import losses widened [4] - **策略观点**: With a high probability of Fed rate cut in December and eased geopolitical risks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The reference range for SHFE copper is 85,800 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,700 - 10,900 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic futures positions and warehouse receipts decreased. Spot premiums declined, and market activity decreased [7] - **策略观点**: Global visible inventory is low, and supply disruptions are expected. Aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,830 dollars/ton [8] Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices declined. Domestic and overseas inventories changed, and the basis and spreads showed certain trends [9] - **策略观点**: Supply is increasing, domestic demand is stable, and inventory is rising. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined slightly. Zinc ore supply is tight due to winter stockpiling, and zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly [11] - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices rose. Supply is affected by raw material shortages, and demand from emerging fields provides support. Inventory increased slightly, and there are geopolitical risks in Congo (Kinshasa) [13] - **策略观点**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for domestic SHFE tin is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices declined [16] - **策略观点**: Nickel supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The spot index and futures prices increased [20] - **策略观点**: There are differences in the market regarding short - term demand and future supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract is 92,200 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined slightly. The basis, overseas prices, and inventory showed certain trends [23] - **策略观点**: Overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the industry has over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Spot prices increased, and inventory decreased slightly [26] - **策略观点**: Spot prices increased, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded slightly. The contract price, inventory, and basis changed [29] - **策略观点**: Cost support is strong, and supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have stabilized below $4150, reaching a new high in over a week, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with an implied probability of about 80% according to the CME Group FedWatch tool [3][4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Price Movements - Gold has reached a one-and-a-half-week high but has struggled to maintain upward momentum, with slight increases observed during the European session [3]. - The dollar index remains near multi-month highs, which has limited the upside for gold prices despite the dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve [3]. Technical Analysis - ICMarkets indicates that strong overnight gains have validated multiple support levels, including an upward trend line extending from late October and the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart [6]. - There is a significant possibility for gold prices to push towards the $4177-$4178 range and challenge the $4200 psychological level [6]. - If gold prices fall below the $4132-$4130 range, it may present a buying opportunity, with strong support expected around $4110-$4100 [6].

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张斯文 于娜 北京报道 近日，无锡药明康德新药开发股份有限公司（下称"药明康德"，603259.SH）披露了2025年第三季度报 告，前三季度实现营业收入328.57亿元，同比增长18.61%；归属于上市公司股东净利润120.76亿元，同 比大增84.84%。 （数据来源：Wind） 但细究业绩结构，可以看到，公司存在非经常性收益贡献显著，国内业务增长停滞、部分板块疲软、研 发投入收缩等问题。 非经常性收益拉高利润 报告显示，前三季度公司非经常性损益达25.53亿元，主要来自出售联营企业WuXi XDC Cayman Inc.部 分股票的收益（32.23亿元）。扣除该部分后，归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益净利润为95.22 亿元，同比增长率下降至42.51%，显著低于净利润增速。 对此，山东隆湶律师事务所主任、高级合伙人李富民对《华夏时报》记者表示，利润结构的健康度要 看"可持续性"。84%的净利润里，超过四成来自非经常性收益，扣非增速落后同行20个百分点，说明主 业溢价能力在收窄。CXO板块普遍把闲置资金做理财或跟投客户股权，但把公允价值变动当"主营味 道 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in gold prices, attributed to expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with a significant probability of a rate cut in December [1][2] - The New York Fed President John Williams indicated that a rate cut would not threaten the Fed's inflation targets, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller supported the conditions for a 25 basis point cut due to a weak labor market [2] - The futures market shows an 80% probability for a rate cut to the range of 3.50%-3.75% in December, which has suppressed the recent rebound of the US dollar [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent Russian attacks on Ukraine, are contributing to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as ongoing conflicts create uncertainty in the market [3] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales, which may influence the dollar's performance and provide short-term trading opportunities for gold [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have confirmed support in the $4030-$4040 range, with potential upward movement towards $4177-$4178 and possibly testing the monthly high of $4244.96 [4]

周生生、老庙、周大福、六福、老凤祥的足金首饰报价在11月21日前后出现小调整，有的下调12元，有的微幅下挫或持平，零售端的波动被细碎地 传递出去； 事情起因之一是美国劳工部在11月20日发布的滞后就业数据，显示9月失业率升至4.4%，9月非农就业增加11.9万人，远超预估，这个数据被市场当 作既能喂鹰派也能喂鸽派的"双刃剑"； 道明证券的分析师把这份报告说成让双方都能回到各自阵营的话，市场于是开始赌美联储的节奏，美元走强成为短期金价承压的直接因素； 同日COMEX报4044.9美元，差不多是那个节奏，先跌后稳，像是被人拉扯了一把； 国内市场也没逃过波及，11月21日收盘上海金Au99.99报924.44元，跌了0.59%，金店的价签也跟着动了； | 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | 1305 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | 1298 | -0.31% | | 周六福 | | 1266 | -0.55% | | 周生生 | | 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

有色金属日报 2025-11-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美领导人通电话，市场情绪回暖，铜价震荡略升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约微涨 0.03%至 10781 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 86040 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 725 至 155750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the gold market will depend on several key factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December and upcoming economic data, particularly the November CPI report scheduled for release on December 18 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 24, the dollar index slightly retreated, trading around 100.120, while gold prices were at $4066.81 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.05% [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $4076.69 and a low of $4039.72 during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. employment data showed a "strong but weak" trend, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly above the expected 50,000, but with downward revisions of 33,000 for July and August [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with probabilities swinging between 40% and 74% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace process and developments in the Middle East are influencing market sentiment. The U.S. proposed a "28-point peace plan" for Ukraine, which has led to a decrease in geopolitical risk [3][4]. - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly following discussions on a ceasefire involving Hamas and the death of a Hezbollah leader, has provided support for gold prices due to increased geopolitical risks [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is at a critical juncture, with $4148 acting as a significant support/resistance level. A stable position above this level could lead to testing above $4200, while a drop below $4040 may trigger a decline towards $4000 or lower [7]. - The demand for physical gold in major Asian markets remains weak, and fluctuations in interest rates are hindering potential buyers, which may limit upward movement in gold prices [7].