Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Bitumen**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - **Aluminum**: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Manganese Ore**: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - **Silicon - Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - **Pig**: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - **Egg**: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - **Cotton**: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - **Methanol**: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].

消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结 论， 认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡 ，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 早盘WTI 原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 摩根大通预测，若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120— 130美元区间。 （→ 美国打击伊朗核设施，卫星图曝光！原油大涨，黄金高开 ） 申万宏源认为，短期A股风险偏好回落，自上而下的叙事有所弱化，短期有休整需要，但跌不 深是一致预期，对应短期防御类资产有绝对收益。 国泰海通证券表示，全球地缘政治格局加速演变，外贸有望打开军工行业新的增长极，推荐 产品或业务与出口密切相关企业。分析认为，在大国博弈加剧的背景下，加大国防投入是当 今时代的必选项，内需和外贸有望驱动军工行业高景气度，保持发展趋势长期向好。 信达证券认为，市场在6—7月可能还会有震荡回撤，不过幅度可控。三季度后期或四季度， 盈利、政策和居民资金三个因素中，只要有一个往乐观方向转变，市场有望回归牛市状态。 现货黄金失守3 3 6 0美元/盎司 6月23日，A股指数低开，三大股指一度飘红。截至10:40，约3500股上涨。 板块上，油气、航运、军工涨幅居前 ...

上周五，由于中东战事的不确定性及其可能对全球经济造成的影响，美元指数创逾一个月最大周线涨幅。 虽然地缘政治风险上升为金价带来支撑，但美国通胀预期的上升和美联储的谨慎立场影响了市场对美联储今年降 息次数的预期，现货黄金上周五走势持稳。受美国空袭伊朗三大核设施、特朗普反问伊朗政权为何不能进行更迭 等因素影响，现货黄金周一高开。 WTI原油上周五开盘冲高回落，最终近乎回吐日内全部涨幅，收涨0.2%，报73.96美元/桶；受中东局势升级影 响，原油周一高开。 1.美国总统特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施伊朗！伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡 周末，美国总统特朗普下令空袭伊朗核设施，国防部长赫格塞思表示美国基本摧毁了伊朗的核项目。 作为回应，伊朗议会通过一项提案，批准在必要时关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会 手中。 2.德黑兰爆发大规模反美反以抗议 当地时间6月22日下午，伊朗首都德黑兰市中心爆发大规模抗议活动，大批民众走上街头，谴责美国和以色列对伊 朗核设施发动袭击。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬也现身活动现场，表达对抗议民众的声援与支持。 3.美国国务卿：美国准备23日与伊朗对话 美国国务卿鲁比奥当地时间22日在接受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IEA and EIA have lowered their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to weak demand from the US and China, while geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - IEA predicts a loose supply-demand balance in 2025, but geopolitical risks are prominent [1] - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below planned levels, indicating limited actual production capacity [1] - China's "three oil giants" maintain high capital expenditures, with a planned oil and gas production growth of 1.3% to 5.9% by 2025, reinforcing energy security [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The escalation of the US's involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified the situation, leading to fluctuations in Brent and WTI crude oil prices [1] - The risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, with a potential closure impacting 34% of global maritime oil exports, resulting in a 72% weekly increase in BDTI shipping rates [1] - The valuation of oil shipping is expected to rise due to these geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The medium to long-term outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains positive, with recovering chemical demand and capacity clearing benefiting leading refining and coal chemical companies' profitability [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1] - The index focuses on the oil and natural gas industry, exhibiting high industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, effectively representing the overall market trends of the oil and gas industry chain [1]

Market Overview - The Middle East situation continues to impact global markets, with A-shares declining and the bond market strengthening. The conflict in Iran has created tension, leading to a drop in A-share performance, with only 716 companies rising, marking a recent low [2][4] - On Friday, Trump's statement regarding a decision on attacking Iran within two weeks eased market nerves, resulting in improved performance for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Bond Market - The bond market remains strong due to a loose funding environment, despite a slight liquidity withdrawal by the central bank. Weak economic data supports the bond market, making it favorable as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks [2][8] Commodity Market - Gold prices experienced a weekly decline of over 2% due to a strengthening dollar, while oil prices fluctuated significantly amid geopolitical tensions [3][37] Stock Market - As the second quarter approaches its end, attention on corporate earnings is increasing. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has decreased significantly, indicating a recalibration of market expectations [6][15] - The market is expected to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in technology sectors with improving fundamentals and those benefiting from domestic demand policies [7] Industry Performance - In the past week, the banking, communication, and electronics sectors performed well, with respective gains of +2.63%, +1.58%, and +0.95%. Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of -4.35% [21][25] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 6.4% for May, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7%. Real estate investment remains under pressure with a cumulative decline of -10.7% [33]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas industry, logistics, and various sectors including aviation, express delivery, and chemicals [1][2][4][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Oil and Gas Industry - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20% of global oil liquid consumption, approximately 20 million barrels per day [1][2][3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel, leading to energy inflation and significant impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation [1][2][5]. - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have increased dramatically from 22,000 yuan to over 50,000 yuan, indicating that freight performance has outpaced stock price movements for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][4]. Aviation Sector - A potential rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would significantly affect airline stocks, as fuel surcharges may not fully cover increased costs, potentially suppressing demand [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that airline stock prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary spikes in fuel prices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in investment [6]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a reduction in price wars, with companies like YTO Express raising prices, indicating a stabilization in pricing pressures [7]. - The application of unmanned vehicles in last-mile delivery is advancing, reducing costs by 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per parcel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. Chemical Industry - The chemical products price index has risen to 4,210 points, driven by increasing oil prices, although demand seasonality limits the ability to pass on costs, leading to heightened cost pressures [9][10]. - The polyester POY price has increased by 3.6%, but the profit margins are narrowing due to seasonal demand constraints [10]. Fertilizer and Agricultural Chemicals - The price of potassium fertilizer has surged due to supply constraints from Israel, with domestic prices rising by 80 yuan to 3,040 yuan, indicating further potential for price increases [12]. - The pesticide sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for chlorantraniliprole, which has risen by 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply chain disruptions [11]. Metals Market - Gold prices have continued to decline, but the risk premium may rise due to the severity of the conflict, with potential for prices to reach around $3,400 per ounce [16]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise following the extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds a significant share of global cobalt production [17]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with a decline in demand but potential for increased utilization in coal chemical processes due to high oil prices [19][20]. - Recent price increases in coal, particularly in the power sector, suggest a potential rebound in demand as electricity consumption rises [22]. Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production adjustments, will significantly influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [25][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields and those positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices, such as coal and energy firms [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their implications across various industries.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently facing fundamental pressures, with May export growth unexpectedly declining, and the pace of policy implementation likely slowing down. It is expected that fundamental pressures may ease around mid to late July [1][2] - Structural pressures exist in the A-share mid-year report performance, particularly for high-earning expectations in new consumer sectors and thematic stocks, which may face valuation adjustment risks [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Iran nuclear conflict, are suppressing market sentiment and increasing uncertainty [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The A-share market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a potential for stabilization only by mid to late July if positive fundamental and policy factors emerge [2][3] - **Key Factors for Weakness**: 1. **Fundamental Pressure**: Export growth is anticipated to continue declining from June to August, increasing economic growth pressure [3] 2. **Mid-Year Report Performance**: While overall performance is stable, certain sectors may face significant structural pressures [3] 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to further suppress market sentiment [4] Important Policies and Measures - Recent policies from the Lujiazui Forum have positively impacted market sentiment, including measures from the central bank related to foreign exchange and the introduction of more favorable conditions for technology innovation companies to list [6] - The introduction of new listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market is expected to facilitate the entry of more innovative companies into the capital market, although the immediate impact on the market's weak state is limited [8] Macro Environment Impact - The current macro environment is characterized by weak economic recovery and declining exports, which historically correlates with weak A-share performance [7][10] - The liquidity environment is neutral to slightly positive, but potential dollar rebounds and geopolitical tensions could impact global liquidity negatively [9] Industry Allocation Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on defensive sectors and high-potential technology sub-sectors, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks in banking, construction, transportation, and electricity [11][13] - High-performing sectors historically during weak economic phases include high-growth industries and defensive sectors, such as low-valuation blue-chip stocks [12] Investment Opportunities - From a value investment perspective, sectors with low historical PE percentiles, such as non-bank financials, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, are highlighted as attractive for short-term allocation [14] - Short-term investment strategies should include a balanced mix of growth and blue-chip stocks, with a focus on undervalued sectors and those that have undergone significant adjustments [15]

Group 1 - International oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 2.48% and WTI by 2.7%, both showing over 20% gains since June, primarily driven by the Israel-Iran conflict [3][5] - The oil and gas resource ETF (159309) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with over 7 million shares net subscribed and a total of over 64 million yuan raised in the past 10 days [1][3] - Major stocks within the oil and gas ETF have experienced significant price increases, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 10% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) showing a slight increase of 0.90% [3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, have escalated risks in the region, with potential implications for oil supply and prices [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has indicated that while they do not foresee major supply disruptions, the risks of supply decline and price increases have risen, predicting Brent crude could reach around 90 USD per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [6][7] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted, as approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through it, including significant percentages of oil and gas exports [8]

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it include any related construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on fund performance, asset flows, and market observations without delving into quantitative finance methodologies.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensification of the Middle - East tension has led to a decline in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth in May was generally stable, but short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the Iranian parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz. Global risk aversion increased, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite declined. Domestic: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, but the short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. For assets, the stock index will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the national debt will fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, the black metals will fluctuate at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals will have increased volatility, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as oil and gas development, short - drama games, and precious metals. The fundamentals showed that China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. The market focused on the Middle - East risk, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market had a high - level oscillating correction. The Fed's June meeting maintained the interest rate and made hawkish remarks. The Israel - Iran conflict escalated, and the US military directly attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it may impact the global capital market [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the domestic steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and the trading volume remained low. The "national subsidy" for home appliances continued. The Fed's hawkish signal and the rebound of the US dollar index suppressed commodity prices. The demand had some resilience, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 16.08 tons week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply increased by 9.68 tons week - on - week, mainly contributed by building materials. The steel market will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, the iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. The daily output of molten iron increased slightly, and the steel mills' profits were still good. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 157 tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 224 tons week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 101 tons. The short - term fundamentals were strong, but the rebound of coking coal prices had a certain inhibitory effect. The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short term. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions were stable. The supply of silicon manganese in the south was low, and the cost was inverted. The supply of silicon iron might increase. The market will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term, and if energy prices continue to strengthen, short - term rebound opportunities can be concerned [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Fed's June meeting was more hawkish. The central government will allocate 138 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters. The copper production is at a high level, the demand has a marginal weakening risk, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has stimulated copper to flow into the US, overdrawing future import demand. It is necessary to wait for the right time to short, and pay attention to the negotiation results and tariff policies [8]. Aluminum - 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters. The aluminum price increased mainly due to the external market. The downstream demand has a weakening risk, the inventory reduction of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased. The "trade - in" policy has some uncertainties [8]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season of demand, and the manufacturing orders have grown weakly. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 46.84%. The demand is in the off - season, and the orders have decreased. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [10]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran retaliates, the geopolitical situation will be at high risk, and the oil price will rise. The short - term fundamentals have limited influence, and the seasonal inventory reduction supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see the geopolitical development [11]. Asphalt - The oil price oscillates at a high level, and the asphalt price has a slight upward breakthrough. The shipment has improved, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the spot price lags behind. It will follow the oil price to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11]. PX - The upstream cost has increased due to the geopolitical risk, and the demand has increased due to the slight increase in PTA's operation rate. The tight supply situation will continue, and it will follow the oil price to oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The oil price drives up the absolute price, and the port inventory is low. The downstream will cut production, and the 6 - month contract will release some pressure. It will follow the oil price to rise [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The impact of Iranian facilities is expected in August, and the domestic and foreign facilities' operation rates may recover. The inventory reduction has slowed down, and the follow - up increase may be limited [12]. Short - fiber - The oil price increase drives up the polyester price, and the short - fiber will follow the polyester sector to oscillate strongly. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester price to rise [12]. Methanol - The supply may decrease significantly, and the upward driving force is strong. But the continuous price increase squeezes the downstream profit, and there is a risk of MTO/MTP shutdown [12]. PP - The production is increasing, the downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and the oil price increase drives up the PP price. It is necessary to pay attention to the Israel - Iran conflict [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, the downstream demand has little change, and the oil - based cost support is strengthening. The market sentiment has improved, and the price will continue to strengthen with increased short - term fluctuations [13]. Urea - The supply is high, the agricultural demand has not increased significantly, and the compound fertilizer operation rate has decreased. Although the port collection demand is planned to increase, the fundamentals are weak. But the geopolitical conflict drives up the price, and the downward space is limited [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The rainfall in the production area has alleviated the drought. The EPA's RVO policy for 2026 - 2027 is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil. The 2025/26 US soybeans are expected to have low inventory, and the fund's net long - position holdings are increasing [14]. Corn - The arrival volume of Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low, and the purchase price supports the Northeast corn. The wheat substitution and the release of old corn may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn in the short term [15]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - The oil mills' high - operation rate makes the soybean meal supply and demand loose, and the domestic basis is expected to be stable. The rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market. It is necessary to pay attention to the China - Canada trade policy [16]. Oils and Fats - The international oils and fats have a market premium due to the energy - related risk. The short - term long - market situation will continue, but the external market changes have a direct impact, and the risk is high. It is advisable to participate cautiously [16]. Live Pigs - The group's weight - reduction efforts are small, the benchmark - area spot market is stable, and the slaughter volume has decreased in the off - season. The pig price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The range - bound market will be stable but may have stronger fluctuations [17].