Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel market maintains a volatile state, lacking a clear price - rebound driver. The cost - collapse narrative of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has increased. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited. It is recommended that industrial customers participate in hedging [6][7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the steel tender prices have been finalized, and the prices are temporarily stable. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - In the iron ore market, the basis has rapidly shrunk. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products showed different changes in prices, increases, and decreases. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated on Monday, and spot prices varied. The transaction volume rebounded to over 100,000 tons. The cost collapse of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a futures - at - discount - to - spot structure, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventory. Pay attention to short - term spreads for arbitrage on the futures market [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has exceeded 90%. The prices of some coking coal varieties have rebounded, and the prices of Mongolian coal in some regions have changed. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is priced at 1140 (-10), and the coking coal price index is 937.6 (-1.2) [6]. - **Futures Market**: The black chain index continued to oscillate strongly. The coking coal price closed above the 800 mark, mainly affected by strict safety inspections in the main producing areas. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Industrial customers are recommended to actively participate in hedging [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Tender Prices**: The new round of ferrosilicon tender price of a North China steel mill is 5500 yuan/ton (tax - included, ex - factory acceptance), a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 290 tons. The June silicomanganese alloy tender price of a large North China steel mill is 5650 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price and a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the May price, with a purchase quantity of 1700 tons, a 100 - ton increase compared to the previous month [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, but market confidence has slightly stabilized. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a long position in ferrosilicon and a short position in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading with options [7]. Iron Ore - **Basis and Transportation**: The basis has rapidly shrunk to 20 on Monday, and the optimal deliverable is brbf. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage [7]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price has fallen to narrow the basis. The molten iron output has slightly increased, and the steel mill inventory has significantly rebounded. Although the downstream steel demand in the off - season is better than expected, if the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping industry futures on June 24, 2025. They cover aspects such as price differences, basis, yields, exchange rates, and fundamental data, providing investors with a multi - dimensional view of market conditions [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the price differences of various contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures price differences, inter - period price differences, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 60.50, with a change of 12.54 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also shows the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these price differences, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented. For instance, the TS basis is 1.8674, with a change of - 0.0681 compared to the previous day, and the IRR percentile is 43.20% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Price Differences**: Inter - period price differences and cross - variety price differences are also provided, such as the TS inter - period price difference between the next quarter and the current quarter is - 0.2380 [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver are reported. For example, the AU2508 contract closed at 781.30 yuan/gram on June 23, with a gain of 0.35% [5]. - **Yields and Exchange Rates**: The yields of US Treasury bonds and exchange rates such as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are also included, which can affect the prices of precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are provided, along with the changes in shipping rates. For example, the MAERSK shipping rate decreased by 3.31% from June 23 to June 24 [8]. - **Index and Futures Prices**: The settlement price indices of shipping routes and the prices of shipping futures contracts are reported, as well as the basis of the main contract [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container运力 supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, which can help analyze the fundamentals of the shipping industry [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: Economic indicators such as the US first - quarter current account and June consumer confidence index are provided [11]. - **Domestic Data**: Economic indicators and events related to black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities in the domestic market are reported, such as port inventories of iron ore and manganese ore [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated. Crude oil prices rose significantly. High - sulfur fuel oil with a large proportion of Iranian supply performed well in terms of oil product profits. The 380 - cst monthly spread fluctuated, with the 8 - 9 month spread at $7.5. The basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between the near and far months of the FU inside - outside market. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 - cst crack spread in Singapore declined, and the monthly spread fluctuated [5]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, low - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's inventory decreased, floating storage inventory fluctuated, and the US inventory decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and the shipments were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15% - 20% of Singapore's high - sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia - Pacific region and not being able to participate in the physical delivery of the futures market. It is expected that Iran's future shipments will decline, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact scale will increase. Recently, high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the external market is running strongly, the near - month contracts of the FU inside - outside market are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply interruption on the far - month contracts, while the inside - outside valuation of the LU is high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$4.35 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$1.35 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.68 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$14.62 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$15.97 | | LGO - Brent M1 | +$4.09 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$5.70 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | -$6.99 | | 180cst M1 | -$6.02 | | VLSFO M1 | -$3.46 | | Gasoil M1 | -$2.85 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.71 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$17.63 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$3.22 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.88 | | 380 Basis | +$0.95 | | High - sulfur Inside - outside Spread | +$0.8 | | Low - sulfur Inside - outside Spread | +$2.6 | [4] Domestic FU Futures Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +28 | | FU 05 | +21 | | FU 09 | +22 | | FU 01 - 05 | +7 | | FU 05 - 09 | -1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -6 | [4] Domestic LU Futures Data | Item | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +49 | | LU 05 | +14 | | LU 09 | +51 | | LU 01 - 05 | +35 | | LU 05 - 09 | -37 | | LU 09 - 01 | +2 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, but there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - For MEG, the supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: The PTA futures rebounded after a decline yesterday. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere, with slightly increased spot offers and a loosened basis. The mainstream suppliers offered forward cargoes. The June cargo was mainly traded at 09+260~270, and the price negotiation range was around 5220~5300. The July negotiation was scarce. The mainstream spot basis today is 09+264 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5247, and the 09 contract basis is 302, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 days, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Main Position: The net long position decreased, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Expectation: Although PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Monday, the ethylene glycol price opened higher and then declined, with fair market negotiations. Affected by the news of the potential restart of Iranian plants, the ethylene glycol futures continued to decline. The afternoon trading was weak [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4570, and the 09 contract basis is 79, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.28 tons, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net short position increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply-Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply-Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - **Price and Margin Data**: Includes the prices and margins of various products such as naphtha, PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester fibers [12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers [40]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [51]. - **Profit Analysis**: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers [59].

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, Iran accounted for a large proportion of high-sulfur supply, and it performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, the 8-9 spread was $7.5, the basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between near and far months of FU at home and abroad. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 cracking in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated [4]. - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15%-20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is operating strongly, the near months of FU at home and abroad are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Pay attention to the impact of supply disruptions in the far months. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high [4][5]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$16.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -$9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.66 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$36.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$26.62 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$6.60 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$1.14 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.19 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$2.55 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$6.20 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.44 | | 380 Basis | -$1.95 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | +$0.8 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -$4.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -2 | | FU 05 | +11 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -13 | | FU 05 - 09 | +17 | | FU 09 - 01 | -4 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -21 | | LU 05 | +13 | | LU 09 | -31 | | LU 01 - 05 | -34 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of oscillation, with different sub - sectors showing varying trends. There is no strong driving force for a significant rebound in the black metal sector in the short - term, and investors should adopt a cautious and wait - and - see approach, making specific trading decisions based on different varieties [5][62][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Tends to be bearish. Long - process steel mills have profit, and short - process profit is unstable. Overall production is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely without administrative requirements [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. There is a slight improvement in demand, and exports remain strong. However, the market is worried about the weakening of demand expectations, and the upward price drive is not strong [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The total inventory level is low, and the seasonal inventory reduction is slowing down. The industry is in an active de - stocking state [5] - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is stable, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 58, an increase of 7 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process production has profit, while short - process production profit is unstable, and the production cut amplitude has increased slightly [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are thin profits in the industrial chain, with relatively low relative valuation and room for compression in absolute valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The real estate market has declined further, and the market has low expectations for incremental policies [5] - **Investment View**: Wait - and - see. There is no strong driving force for a rebound in the black metal sector in the off - season, and the basis structure of futures at a discount to spot can be used as a reference for basis trading [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conduct rolling hedging and manage positions, and consider appropriate inventory rotation; for arbitrage, short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel; for basis trading, consider short - term basis trading [5] 3.2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has shown resilience, and the daily average hot - metal production has slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills is fair, and the hot - metal production has strong resilience in the off - season [62] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Domestic coal mines are in a state of mixed shutdown and resumption. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a medium - low level, and the shipping coal market sentiment has slightly improved [62] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has continued to decline, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall profits of coke enterprises are still good considering by - product revenues [62] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream enterprises continue to maintain low inventory levels, and there are differences in coal mine data. As the end of the month approaches, the short - term supply disturbances may subside [62] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The fourth round of coke price cuts has been initiated, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, leading to an increase in basis trading [62] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have good profitability, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall situation of coke enterprises is still acceptable [62] - **Summary**: Bearish. Affected by the Israel - Palestine conflict and improved industrial data, the black metal sector has been strong, but the divergence between the futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke is large. It is recommended that industrial customers conduct hedging, and ordinary investors wait and see [62] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively conduct basis hedging; for arbitrage, long the spread between the September and January contracts of coking coal [62] 3.3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bearish. Iron ore shipments are seasonally increasing, and the arrival pressure will gradually materialize. The marginal increase in supply will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [111] - **Demand**: Bearish. Steel mill hot - metal production has slightly increased and remains at a relatively high level. Steel demand has shown resilience in the off - season, but the market is still waiting for a decline in downstream steel demand [111] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Port inventory has slightly decreased this period, but the subsequent inventory of ports and ships at anchor will continue to increase [111] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still high, and hot - metal production can remain at a high level in the short - term [111] - **Valuation**: Neutral. Hot - metal production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [111] - **Summary**: Neutral. The slight decline in hot - metal production has led to a transition from slight inventory reduction to slight inventory accumulation in port inventory. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, steel mill production cuts are necessary [111] - **Investment View**: Oscillation [111] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see [111]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on various futures products, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt. The basis of crude oil is related to the spot price of China Shengli and the futures closing price of INE crude oil; the basis of fuel oil is related to the FOB Singapore spot price and the futures closing price of fuel oil [6][7][9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 256 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2536 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of rebar was 78.0 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month), iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of copper was 500 yuan/ton [23] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On June 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 274.99 [30] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 179 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 13 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of CSI 300 was 73.04 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for different periods (such as next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) are given [48]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月23日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | F期现价差 | -73.04 | -70.35 | 1.60% | 2.40% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -32.00 | 1.60% | -38.32 | 0.60% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -51.11 | -52.08 | 17.60% | 18.80% | IM期到价差 | 1.20% | -211.79 | -213.97 | 5.00% | | -44.80 | 5.80% | 次月-景月 | -2.80 | 0.40% | -75.60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will be boosted, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical factors have significantly escalated, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, and cautious operation is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis Information - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4630. The PG futures price has increased, with the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 6 to 97. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The PG futures price has strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks. The 07 contract basis has weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads have weakened significantly, with 07 - 08 at 10 and 07 - 09 at 195 [1] Price Changes - From June 1 to June 20, 2025, the daily changes in prices include: South China LPG -10, East China LPG 7, Shandong LPG 80, Shandong ether - post - carbon - four 1, Shandong alkylated oil -5, etc. [1] Market Conditions - The CFR prices of propane in South China and East China are basically flat. The outer - market prices have continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio has increased [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread has strengthened, FEI - MB has strengthened slightly, FEI - CP and MB - CP have weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount has weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount has dropped significantly to 12 US dollars. Freight has increased slightly [1] Downstream Profits - The PDH spot profit has improved due to the increase in drawing prices. The profit of producing PP with FEI has decreased, while the profit of producing with CP has increased. The profits of alkylation and MTBE have decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has shifted downward [1] Fundamental Information - Due to delayed arrivals and a slight increase in chemical demand, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, while factory inventories have remained basically flat, and external sales have remained basically unchanged [1] - Chemical demand has support, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing, and the alkylation rate remaining basically flat. Subsequently, many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads, driving up the PDH operating rate [1] Warehouse Receipt Information - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 at Jinneng Chemical and 377 at Shanghai Yuchi [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the domestic chemical coal market has shown a range - bound trend, and the cost of coal - to - methanol has stabilized. Due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, there are concerns about a reduction in methanol imports. With high and stable methanol - to - olefin operating rates, good demand, low port inventories, and high basis, and driven by a sharp rise in crude oil, methanol prices have rebounded significantly. However, after methanol prices reach a high level, there is an expectation of increased domestic production, and downstream profits have deteriorated, putting pressure on downstream demand. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate strongly. The recommended strategy is to operate within a range and sell straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly. Port methanol inventory is expected to increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the unloading speed of foreign vessels [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. The estimated arrival plan of imported methanol samples is 26.31 tons, and the domestic trade volume is estimated to be around 2.5 - 3.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: With the ongoing maintenance of olefin plants in Zhongmei Mengda and the expected load reduction of olefin enterprises in East China, the operating rate of the olefin industry has continued to decline passively. The operating rates of dimethyl ether, chlorides, and acetic acid have increased, while the operating rate of formaldehyde has decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The import profit is inverted at - 29 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia has increased to 174 yuan/ton, while downstream profits are in large losses. The loss of MTO profit in East China has expanded to - 1934 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Recently, due to rising temperatures, coal prices have stabilized and are showing an upward trend. However, due to abundant supply of imported and domestic coal, high - level inventories, the weakening of thermal power demand due to the substitution effect of clean energy, and the slower - than - expected terminal inventory reduction speed, coal prices are still under pressure [7]. 3.2 Weekly View and Strategy - **MA Unilateral Strategy**: Short MA509. As of June 19, the price of MA509 was 2543 yuan/ton. The cost side has stabilized, inventory accumulation is less than expected, the conflict between Iran and Israel has worsened, and there are concerns about a reduction in imports. The recommended operation is to operate within a range [10]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of June 19, the spread of the September contract was - 355 yuan/ton. The pressure of new PP production capacity is greater than that of methanol, and MTO profits are under pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rallies and wait and see for the time being [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of June 19, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2765 yuan/ton, and the basis relative to the September contract was 222 yuan/ton [15]. - **Domestic Spreads and Freight**: Relevant data on the spreads between Taicang and Inner Mongolia and between Inner Mongolia and Dongying, as well as freight rates, are presented in the form of charts [16]. - **International Methanol and Natural Gas Prices**: The international prices of methanol and natural gas are presented in the form of charts [20]. - **Inter - contract Spreads**: The spreads between different methanol contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9) are presented in the form of charts [22][24]. - **Related Product Ratios**: The ratios of methanol to urea and methanol to liquefied gas are presented in the form of charts [31]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Profits - **Import Profit and Trade Gross Margin**: The import profit is inverted, and the trade gross margin from Inner Mongolia to East China is presented in the form of charts [34]. - **Coal - to - Methanol Production Profit**: The production profits of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi are presented in the form of charts [39]. - **Natural Gas and Coke Oven Gas - to - Methanol Production Profit**: The production profits of natural gas - to - methanol in Chongqing and coke oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei are presented in the form of charts [42]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Profit**: The production profits of methanol - to - olefin in East China and Shandong, as well as the disk MTO profit, are presented in the form of charts [46]. - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Profits**: The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,190 tons, and the plant capacity utilization was 88.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [64]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of June 18, 2025, the port inventory data shows that the weekly arrival volume of methanol in China was 25.7 tons. The import volume in May was 1.2943 million tons, and the import volume in June 2025 is expected to be around 1.3 - 1.35 million tons [69]. - **New Methanol Production Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 8.6 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Most of the new plants are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO. Overseas, the new methanol production capacity is expected to be 5.05 million tons [71][73]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Methanol Apparent Consumption**: From January to April, the apparent consumption of methanol was 26.58 million tons, an increase of 4.5% [77]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 88.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%. Due to planned maintenance in Zhongmei Mengda and a slight reduction in the load of enterprises in East China, the weekly average operating rate of the olefin industry has decreased [81]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether are presented in the form of charts [82][85]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: The purchasing volumes of methanol - to - olefin manufacturers and traditional downstream manufacturers are presented in the form of charts [89]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of June 18, 2025, the pending orders of sample enterprises were 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 9.37% [96]. - **New Downstream Production Capacity of Methanol**: In 2024, there was only one new olefin downstream plant. In 2025, new methanol downstream production capacity is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an expected new olefin production capacity of 2.36 million tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 6.6 million tons. For traditional downstream products, new production capacity is mainly in acetic acid, MTBE, etc., with a theoretical new methanol demand of 5.87 million tons [98]. 3.7 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.10% [102]. - **Port Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 10.09%. The port inventory has decreased as expected [105]. - **Port Floating Storage**: The floating storage in East China and South China ports is presented in the form of charts [108].