关于中方究竟是否会"解禁"稀土出口这个问题，商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，鉴于美方根据中美经贸高层会谈共识， 撤销暂停或调整有关对华加征关税，中方相应调整有关关税和非关税对美反制措施。不过，中方在近期依然在就稀土出 口进行合理管控。比如就在9日，中方在深圳举办了打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动现场会；12号，中方在长沙举办了加 强战略矿产出口全链条管控工作部署会。显然，中方对稀土出口的管控有可能在近期不会出现太大的变化，那么这又是 为什么呢？ 这代表美国对中国发起的全面贸易战、关税战第一阶段失败后，转向在科技与芯片领域试图用"长臂管辖"重点进攻。问 题是，美国这次的"长臂管辖"也太长了。禁止全球使用华为芯片，甚至禁止中国企业在中国使用中国制造的先进芯片！ 美方为这条荒谬规定找到的理由是，华为的昇腾芯片过于先进，很可能是采用了某些美国软件或技术设计的，或很可能 由含有美国程序或技术的半导体制造设备制造。可笑的是，美国没有证据，纯靠猜测，就要给华为昇腾芯片"判死刑"。 事实上，长期以来，美国内部的对华鹰派就一直将中国半导体企业作为打击目标，同时也颁布了多种制裁措施来限制尖 端芯片对华出口，而这些做法其背后的真实意图无疑 ...

美国总统特朗普愿意缓和贸易战的举动，不仅引发了美股大涨，还降低了经济衰退的可能性——至少目 前如此。 费城联储汇编的一项针对华尔街顶级经济学家的新调查显示，如果排除新冠疫情时期，美国经济增速将 放缓至16年来最慢水平。 预测者预计，美国国内生产总值（GDP）2025年将增长1.4%。这比在贸易战爆发前预计的2.4%增长率 大幅下降。 中国与美国上周就贸易协议达成重要共识，特朗普此前4月份的针锋相对引发了市场对全球经济衰退的 担忧。目前这种休战使得华尔街集体松一口气，并成为股市复苏的催化剂。 Comerica Bank首席经济学家Bill Adams说："我认为经济衰退的风险看起来比一个月前低得多。" 然而，经济未来的道路绝非坦途。 一方面，持续的贸易战并未结束。90天暂停期后，特朗普可能会改变主意。即便近期有所下调，美国现 有关税水平仍将维持在几十年来的最高水平。 BMO Capital Markets首席经济学家Douglas Porter表示："虽然贸易方面的消息无疑没那么糟糕，但远不 能令人放心。" 更重要的是，贸易冲突产生的种种不确定性使得家庭和企业在消费、招聘和投资方面犹豫不决。过去几 个月信心暴跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

报道提到，贝森特发表上述言论之际，沃尔玛在本周早些时候宣布，因白宫正在进行贸易战，该企业将提高商品售价，以应对更高的供应成本。而特朗普17 日在社交媒体"真实社交"上发文施压沃尔玛，要求其"自行消化"关税成本，不要涨价。 沃尔玛公司高管5月15日曾表示，受美国政府关税政策影响，该公司将于本月晚些时候开始上调部分商品在美售价。沃尔玛首席财务官约翰·雷尼当天接受美 国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时说，沃尔玛的定位是"天天低价"，但关税上调幅度超过任何零售商可以吸收的水平。美国消费者很可能从5月末 开始看到商品涨价。 作为零售业巨头和美国最大的食品杂货商，沃尔玛经常被视为衡量零售商和美国消费者健康状况的风向标。CNBC的报道认为，越来越多的美国公司因关税 而提高商品售价，而沃尔玛加入了这一行列。 《野兽日报》称，贝森特18日在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）采访时表示，"正如你所描述的那样，事实上，沃尔玛将承担部分关税。"他也承认，由于特 朗普政府的关税措施，沃尔玛正面临更高的成本。 报道称，贝森特此前坚称，消费者不会因为特朗普的关税措施而面临更高的价格。但他同日在接受美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）采访时进一步 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美股三大指数上周均收涨，道琼斯指数、标普500指数分别累计上涨3.4%和5.3%， 纳斯达克指数更是累计上涨了7.2%。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数目前已从4月初特朗普政府关税政策 引发的抛售中收复了失地，今年迄今为止均实现了上涨。 关税新闻在未来一周仍将是焦点。经济数据方面则较为清淡，制造业活动数据以及每周初请失业金数据 将成为本周的主要亮点。大多数公司已完成第一季度财报的公布，Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US)、塔吉 特(TGT.US)、家得宝(HD.US)和Workday(WDAY.US)的财报将受到关注。 关税新闻仍是市场焦点 市场目前最核心的故事仍是特朗普的贸易战。上周，有关美中达成90天关税暂停的消息推动股市大幅上 涨，也促使多位华尔街策略师对标普500的展望变得更为乐观。 特朗普上周五表示，美国将在未来几周内设定其贸易伙伴的关税税率。Fundstrat研究主管Tom Lee在一 份客户报告中为他年底6500点的标普500目标辩护称："如果关税协议很快达成，股市将进一步反弹。" 但策略师们也指出，大多数关税目前仅为暂停状态，实际协议的谈判仍在进行中。这使得政 ...

据媒体报道，美国财政部长贝森特周日发出严厉警告，表明若各国不"本着诚意谈判"，美国将恢复特朗普4月2日宣布的最高关税 水平。这标志着美国在贸易谈判中正采取更为咄咄逼人的立场。 周一，现货黄金亚市盘初涨超1%，升破3230美元/盎司。 美国贸易谈判态度骤然强硬 "一些国家的税率是10%，一些则大幅更高，"Bessent对媒体表示。如果"你不想谈判，那么关税将回弹到4月2日的水平"。据报 道，各国将收到Bessent的信函，明确说明如果不认真谈判将面临的最高关税率。 美国发起的贸易战又有升温迹象，黄金作为避险资产已应声上涨。 这种强硬态度与特朗普最近宣称各国正"争相"与华盛顿谈判的说法形成鲜明对比。不过，当地时间5月16日，特朗普也表示，未来 两到三周内，美国可能会单方面对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。特朗普称，美国缺乏与所有贸易伙伴通过谈判达成协议的能 力。 特朗普称，"虽然有'150个国家'希望达成协议，但不可能与所有国家会面。我认为我们会给出公平的税率，想要与那么多国家见 面并谈判是不可能的。" 特朗普4月2日宣布对近乎所有进口商品征收10%基本关税，同时对数十个贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，一度引发全球金融市 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unexpected outcome of the US-China trade agreement, where China significantly increased exports to the US, but did not reciprocate with increased purchases of American goods, leading to pressure on the Trump administration [3][5][10] - Following the announcement of the tariff reduction, Chinese exports to the US surged by nearly three times, with some sectors experiencing increases of 270% to 300% in orders within three days [6][8] - The overall tariff rate dropped from 145% to 30%, but concerns remain about the potential for tariffs to be reinstated after the 90-day "honeymoon period" [8][10] Group 2 - The historical context reveals that China's previous experiences with US agricultural imports have led to a cautious approach, particularly after the 2003 soybean crisis, which highlighted the risks of over-reliance on a single source [12][16][19] - China has diversified its supply chains, focusing on South America for agricultural imports, with projections indicating that by Q1 2025, 68% of China's soybean imports will come from South America, significantly outpacing imports from the US [21][23] - Investments in agricultural technology and seed development are part of China's strategy to enhance self-sufficiency and reduce dependency on US imports, with a goal of achieving self-sufficiency in major crops by 2030 [28][30] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the current trade dynamics are not merely about whether to buy American goods, but rather about the strategic decision of whether there is a necessity to purchase them at all, given the competitive alternatives available [26][34] - The political landscape in the US complicates trade relations, as the Trump administration's policies are influenced by domestic political pressures, making them unpredictable and less appealing for long-term partnerships [32][34] - The shifting global resource allocation and the strategic adjustments by China indicate a significant transformation in trade relationships, moving away from reliance on the US towards a more independent and diversified trade network [34][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, styrene has filled the previous gap and recovered from the decline caused by the trade war. Caution is advised when chasing high prices. The weakness of pure benzene continues, and the focus is on how long the profit expansion of EB can last [3][4]. - In the medium - term, the weak trend of pure benzene has not ended. The supply - side pressure is continuously recovering, and European pure benzene may continue to arrive in July. The downstream demand for pure benzene is still in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. Pay attention to the actual new orders of end - users and the replenishment intensity of 3S factories next week [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Short - term Market Analysis of Styrene - Styrene's performance this week was stronger than expected due to three reasons: the release of downstream terminal demand after the easing of the trade war, the potential extreme market of port paper goods in late May, and the sudden news of the overhaul of an ethylene cracking device in a northern factory. It has filled the gap from the sharp decline during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [3]. Medium - term Outlook of Pure Benzene and Styrene - The weakness of pure benzene continues. The bz - sm near - month spread has risen above 1800, and the overall valuation is relatively high. The apparent inventory of styrene remains low, and the raw material inventory of downstream factories has decreased. Pay attention to the new orders of end - users and the replenishment of 3S factories next week [4]. - The supply - side pressure of pure benzene continues to recover, and European goods may continue to arrive after July. The downstream aniline, adipic acid, and caprolactam industries' operating rates have declined this week, and it is still in a supply - exceeding - demand situation [4]. Market Conditions of Pure Benzene - Pure benzene imports have exceeded expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products. The supply of hydrogenated benzene is limited [8][14]. - The profit of pure benzene downstream products shows different trends. For example, the production profit of styrene non - integrated devices, aniline, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid has fluctuated [23][25][26]. Market Conditions of Styrene - Styrene is currently in a situation of neutral inventory, high profit, and neutral production. The inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and production volume have shown different trends over time [51][52][55]. Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market - The logistics price difference between the US and Asia cannot be opened, and pure benzene remains in Asia. The internal price difference of aromatic hydrocarbons has returned [58][65]. Contradiction in the Second Quarter - There is a contradiction between the de - stocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [67]. Downstream Product Market Conditions - ABS, PS, EPS, and other downstream products have different trends in inventory, production profit, production volume, and production capacity utilization rate [69][75][84].

据环球时报报道援引美国《华盛顿邮报》社论表示，在美国政府对中国输美商品竖起了关税壁垒之后，中国利用这一强大的影响力来源进行了反制：对部分 中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。因此，美国针对中国发起的贸易战已危及美国的国家安全。美国政府似乎在其挑起的贸易战中误判了双方的力量对比。当 中国是美国众多产品的唯一来源时，中国就能够以极具杀伤力的方式对美关税举措进行反制。对稀土问题的误判尤为严重，因为这直接威胁到美国的军事优 势。 特朗普（资料图） 不难看出，在被中方打痛了之后，美方会在对华态度和立场进行持续审视与调整。另外，稀土问题也很关键，特朗普估计还是不甘心，想在稀土上争取一 下，毕竟中国自从对稀土实施出口管制，直接切中了美国军工产业的命门。在中美会谈前，美方就希望中国取消对美稀土出口限制，对此，中方当时就严正 宣布：严打战略矿产走私。 美方在谈判中提出的核心要求之一，便是要求中国取消中重稀土出口的审批限制。中国对稀土出口设置审批机制，是基于国家安全、产业链控制和战略自主 的综合考量。此前，为反制美方的高关税政策，中国出台这一限制措施，精准打击了美国高科技企业的供应链，令其库存告急、生产受阻。而美国却妄图以 所谓的"条 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the positive changes in US-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of bilateral talks and the potential for a more stable global economic environment [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Michael Spence noted that the US accounts for 25% of global GDP, with 13% of its imports coming from China and 15% of China's exports going to the US, indicating significant interdependence [1]. - The ongoing trade war has negatively impacted consumer confidence in the US, which could lead to disastrous effects on the global economy if not addressed [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's primary tasks include managing employment and inflation, with current inflation pressures being influenced by supply and demand dynamics rather than just tariff impacts [2]. - Spence pointed out that while capital expenditures and tourism are declining, demand remains relatively stable, which could still contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Future of Global Trade System - Three potential scenarios for the future of the global trade system were discussed: a fragmented approach where countries act independently, a scenario where major powers exert their influence, and the most likely scenario where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other emerging markets [2]. - Despite the current US government's anti-multilateral stance, Spence believes that a multilateral system could persist and even thrive without the US, with the possibility of the US rejoining in the future [2].