Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by President Trump against Iran's nuclear facilities has raised concerns about market volatility and energy prices, with analysts predicting an initial spike in oil prices and increased uncertainty in the market [1][2]. Energy Market Impact - Mark Spindel, CIO of Potomac River Capital, anticipates initial panic in the market, leading to higher oil prices due to increased uncertainty and risk exposure [2]. - Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group expects oil prices to surge initially but stabilize within a few days, suggesting that Iran may seek a peace agreement after losing leverage [2]. - Jack Ablin, CIO of Cresset Capital, warns that this event introduces new complex risks that will clearly impact energy prices and could potentially increase inflation [2]. Stock Market Reactions - Mark Malek, CIO of Siebert Financial, holds an optimistic view on the stock market, believing the military action will be positive, especially since it appears to be a one-time event rather than a prolonged conflict [3]. - Malek emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the potential for Iran to block the critical Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly alter market dynamics [3]. Pre-Market Observations - Investors are closely monitoring early signals before the market opens, with Spindel noting that there is ample time for consideration and discussions before trading begins [4]. - Analysts believe the bold military action contrasts sharply with previous expectations of negotiations, and market participants are assessing potential damage, which may take time [4]. - The core concern for investors remains the potential retaliatory measures from Iran and whether this action is truly a one-time event or could escalate into a broader regional conflict [4].

美国总统特朗普周六宣布，美军已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的打击行动，标志着中东地缘政治紧张局势进入全 新且更加危险复杂的阶段。 戏剧性的一幕是，袭击前一天，特朗普还宣称"可能会支持停火"。当地时间6月20日，特朗普表示，很难要求以色列停止空袭，他可能 会支持停火。 分析人士警告，这一前所未有的军事行动可能引发伊朗的强烈报复，进一步推高全球能源价格并加剧中东地区不稳定。伊朗政治领导层 面临国内压力，可能被迫对美军基地或代理人目标发动反击以挽回颜面。 专家警告地缘政治风险进入新阶段 中东问题专家表示，特朗普决定直接打击伊朗核设施标志着该地区安全和政治格局进入一个不可预测的新篇章。美国对外关系委员会中 东研究高级研究员Ray Takeyh表示："这是一个新阶段，也是一个潜在的问题阶段。" 据央视新闻、环球网报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹 和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击，并表示"伊朗的福尔多(核设施)已不存在"。 特朗普宣称，将于美国东部时间21日晚上10点在白宫发表全国讲话，内容将涉及"我们在伊朗非常成功的军事行动。这是美国、以 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec as strong investment opportunities due to their robust earnings and high dividend yields [4][14]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are expected to keep oil prices fluctuating at high levels, with Brent crude oil prices recently reaching $77.01 per barrel, reflecting a 3.75% increase week-on-week [3][40]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have adjusted their forecasts for 2025, predicting an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to an anticipated surplus in the oil market [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments, as ongoing conflicts could significantly impact oil supply and pricing dynamics [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report notes that geopolitical conflicts are causing fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices recently dropping below $71 per barrel before rebounding [1][9]. - The EIA and IEA have revised their 2025 forecasts, projecting global oil supply at 10435 million barrels per day and demand at 10353 million barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of 82000 barrels per day [2][10]. 2. Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $77.01 per barrel, up 3.75% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose to $73.84 per barrel, a 1.18% increase [3][40]. - The report highlights a significant rise in natural gas prices, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at $3.90 per million British thermal units, marking a 10.06% increase week-on-week [11][48]. 3. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, with China National Petroleum Corporation expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan [5]. - Companies such as Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas are highlighted for their growth potential, particularly in the context of domestic policies encouraging oil and gas production [4][14]. 4. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production remains stable at 13.43 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput has decreased to 16.86 million barrels per day [11][12]. - The report indicates a decline in commercial crude oil inventories by 1,147 million barrels, while gasoline inventories have increased [12][13]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages and high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec, as they are expected to benefit from stable oil prices and robust earnings [4][14].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.2% this week, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.2%, and the Dow Jones index remained relatively unchanged [2] - The Dow Jones closed up 35.16 points, or 0.08%, at 42,206.82 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.51% to 19,447.41 points, and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.22% to 5,967.84 points [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed might ease monetary policy as early as July, as tariffs are unlikely to significantly increase inflation [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 4.38%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 3.8 basis points to 3.92% [4] - Morgan Stanley noted that uncertainties regarding growth, unemployment, and inflation remain high, with risks skewed towards downside growth and upside inflation [4] Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about broader conflicts, particularly with Iran's threats to respond to Israeli attacks [5] - President Trump stated that it is difficult to ask Israel to stop airstrikes and mentioned a potential timeframe of "up to two weeks" for a decision on striking Iran [4] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector faced pressure due to negative news regarding chip export exemptions, with Nvidia down 1.1% and TSMC nearly 2% [6] - In individual stock performance, Kroger rose by 9.8% after reporting year-on-year growth in Q1 and raising its revenue guidance for FY2025 [7] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google down 3.6% due to antitrust investigations, while Apple gained 2.2% [5] Economic Data - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S. fell by 0.1% to 99.0 in May, marking a cumulative decline of 2.7% over the past six months [8] - The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for June reported -4.0, indicating continued contraction, with employment metrics at their lowest since May 2020 [8] Commodity Prices - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil down 0.28% to $74.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.23% to $77.01 per barrel [8] - Gold prices also faced downward pressure, with COMEX gold futures for June delivery falling 0.64% to $3,368.10 per ounce [8]

由于市场认为美国短期内可能不会军事介入伊朗与以色列冲突，对石油供应中断担忧缓解的同时保持观 望，国际油价在隔夜市场油价强势震荡，当日早盘下跌后跌幅收窄，尾盘回落，收盘时国际油价均下 跌。 分析人士认为，在消息面缺乏明确方向前，油价预计维持区间震荡格局。 油田服务企业贝克休斯公司20日午后公布的数据显示，截至6月20日当周，美国活跃石油钻机数量为438 个，较前一周减少1个，同比降幅为47个；加拿大本周活跃石油钻机数量为93个，环比增加2个，同比减 少16个。 （文章来源：新华财经） 彭博社报道说，美国高级官员正在为对伊朗发动军事打击做准备，可能最早于21日进行。此举将标志着 局势危险升级，并可能进一步推高已因风险溢价而走高的油价。 嘉盛集团资深分析师法瓦德·拉扎克扎达（Fawad Razaqzada）表示，当前油市"最大的多空分歧"源于霍 尔木兹海峡通行风险。若冲突失控导致这一全球约五分之一海上原油运输航道受阻，布伦特价格或被推 升至三位数；反之，若局势意外缓和，油价也可能回落至每桶70美元附近。他提醒投资者在波动市况下 保持高度谨慎和灵活的风险管理。 美国能源信息署最新周报显示，上周美国商业原油库存大幅减少 ...

在银行业方面，摩根士丹利认为，2025年美联储的年度银行压力测试将比2024年更轻松。根据摩根士丹 利的分析，今年的压力测试预计会显示银行的资本充足率下降幅度较小，表明大部分美国银行的压力资 本缓冲将维持在较低水平或相对持平。该测试是美联储评估美国大型银行应对经济衰退和潜在金融危机 能力的关键工具，投资者对银行股的关注度逐渐上升。 随着市场继续消化美联储货币政策决议和以伊冲突走向相关信息，纽约股市三大股指20日高开低走，盘 中弱势盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 尽管美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特6月19日关于美国总统特朗普将在"接下来两周内"决定是否下令美 军对伊朗发动打击的表态暂时缓解了市场对美国很快直接介入以色列与伊朗冲突的担忧，但投资者依然 保持谨慎，在周末到来前倾向于回避风险。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨35.16点，收于42206.82点，涨幅为0.08%；标准 普尔500种股票指数下跌13.03点，收于5967.84点，跌幅为0.22%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌98.86点，收于 19447.41点，跌幅为0.51%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六跌五涨。通信服务 ...

Core Insights - Stellantis is evaluating the potential divestiture of its luxury brand Maserati amid significant pressures from rising import tariffs in the U.S. and competition from Chinese electric vehicle brands in the global luxury car market [1][2] - Maserati's global deliveries have plummeted to 14,725 units in 2024, nearly halving from 26,689 units in 2023, indicating severe market challenges [1] - The decline in Maserati's sales is attributed to underperformance of its core model Grecale, a structural shift in demand from Chinese consumers, and a slowdown in product updates [1] Company Strategy - Stellantis has engaged McKinsey & Company to develop new strategic plans for its luxury brands, including Maserati and Alfa Romeo, during a transitional period under Chairman John Elkann [1] - Official representatives from Stellantis have denied rumors regarding the sale of Maserati, but the company has not provided further details on the strategic evaluation [1] Industry Context - The automotive industry is facing challenges related to accelerated electrification, geopolitical risks, and the need to optimize brand portfolios and improve operational efficiency [2] - The future direction of Maserati may serve as a case study for how multinational automotive companies respond to global industry changes [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治风险有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，但幅度有限。在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景 | | | | 下，钢价或继续区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，但对国内钢价实际影响 | | | | 较有限，预计短期维持区间运行。【3090，3130】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双降，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善。 | | | | 近期煤矿环保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。短期区间参与，中期逢 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical variables are large, but the long - term trend of reducing dollar dependence globally and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged. For copper, in the short - term, due to the off - season demand, the price needs to be adjusted, but in the long - term, the supply of global copper mines is tight, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper prices. Zinc is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate are all under pressure due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side pressure [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Gold is in a strong shock, and silver has a strong rebound [1]. - **Market Review**: European countries cut interest rates, the geopolitical situation did not expand, gold slightly declined, and silver lacked new drivers, with a large outflow of funds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, three European central banks cut interest rates in a row, and there are geopolitical variables. The short - term geopolitical variables are large, and the long - term gold long - bull logic remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold is in the adjustment stage, pay attention to the 800 pressure for SHFE gold in the short - term, and consider long - term investment opportunities. Silver lacks new impetus, pay attention to the gap support [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Copper is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: SHFE copper tested the support of the lower integer mark [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, the off - season of consumption is deepening, downstream demand is weak, but green copper demand in power and new energy vehicles is strong [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, take profit on copper long positions, and industrial customers should actively arrange short - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, be confident in the rise of copper prices. SHFE copper focuses on the range of [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9580, 9680] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and showed a weak shock [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc is under pressure and tests the previous low support. In the long - term, take short positions at high prices. SHFE zinc focuses on [21700, 22000], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Aluminum is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas trade is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing, but the demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and the supply is relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell SHFE aluminum at high prices, and pay attention to aluminum ingot inventory changes. The main operation range is [20000 - 20800] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel rebounds and then falls [1]. - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel was under pressure [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The cost support of nickel mines is weakening, the supply of refined nickel is excessive, and the stainless steel industry is facing the pressure of off - season and high inventory [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operation range of nickel is [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Lithium carbonate is under pressure [1]. - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions slightly and oscillated at a low level [15]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply - side pressure of lithium carbonate remains high, the production has recovered to the same - period high, the new capacity is still ramping up, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [59000 - 60500] [16].

Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]