Market Overview - U.S. stock futures experienced a decline ahead of the market opening, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.72%, S&P 500 futures down 1.39%, and Dow futures down 1.24% [1] - European stock indices also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index dropping over 1% [1] - Japanese government bond yields surged, with 30-year and 40-year bond yields rising at least 28 basis points, indicating significant selling pressure [1] Geopolitical Events - The market is expected to face a series of geopolitical challenges, particularly with the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariff legality pending [2] - President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Davos summit, which investors will closely monitor for signals regarding the Greenland issue [2] Commodity Market - Spot gold and silver reached historical highs, with gold priced at $4,700 per ounce and silver at $95 per ounce, driven by rising geopolitical tensions [6] Company News - Quantinuum, a quantum computing company, is reportedly moving forward with an IPO, aiming for a valuation of $15 billion to $20 billion and seeking to raise $1.5 billion [8] - GSK announced the acquisition of Rapt Therapeutics for $2.2 billion, with a purchase price of $58 per share, representing a 65% premium over the previous closing price [9] - Applovin's stock fell over 7% following a short report alleging systemic compliance risks and significant financial crimes [10] - Sony plans to divest its television business by forming a joint venture with TCL, where TCL will hold a 51% stake and Sony will hold 49% [12] - Moderna reported that its mRNA cancer therapy, when combined with Merck's Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death in high-risk melanoma patients by 49% [13]

本轮金价上涨的核心逻辑已超越传统通胀对冲范畴，转向对全球货币体系稳定性的深度反思。东方金诚 《黄金周报（2026.1.12–2026.1.18）》指出，多位拥有2026年FOMC投票权的美联储官员近期密集发 声，强调"央行独立性是物价稳定的基石"。费城联储主席保尔森表示，降息决策应基于经济数据而非外 部压力；明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利则直言，无论谁担任下一任主席，美联储都必须坚持集体决策 机制以抵御外界干预。 这些表态被市场解读为对特朗普政府要求大幅降息的回应。当货币政策可信度受损时，黄金作为非主权 信用资产的吸引力自然提升。与此同时，地缘政治风险急剧上升。 报告提到，特朗普政府宣布对丹麦等欧洲八国加征关税，直至达成收购格陵兰岛协议。欧洲国家开始向 格陵兰岛派遣军事人员，丹麦及其盟友也筹备联合军演。尽管未引发直接冲突，但地缘紧张局势显著推 高地缘风险溢价，促使资本流向黄金等安全资产。 作者 胡群 1月20日，国际现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司4700美元，创下历史新高。今年以来，金价接连跨越 4500、4600及4700美元三大关键心理关口，国内主流金饰品牌足金报价同步攀升至每克1450元以上。 这一波动背后， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on January 20, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, while coking coal dropped by over 4%. Different futures varieties have different market trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and risk control [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, Shanghai silver and Shanghai tin rose by over 3%, PTA rose by over 2%, and Shanghai gold and palladium rose by nearly 2%. In terms of declines, coking coal dropped by over 4%, coke and glass dropped by over 3%. Stock index futures generally declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:23 on January 20, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2604 had an inflow of 7.055 billion yuan, carbonate lithium 2605 had an inflow of 1.34 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an inflow of 1.335 billion yuan. Shanghai silver 2604 had an outflow of 1.711 billion yuan, iron ore 2605 had an outflow of 579 million yuan, and live pigs 2603 had an outflow of 365 million yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened further. Refined copper production is expected to decline in January. Downstream demand is weak, but short - term declines do not represent long - term trends. The market is currently in a high - level consolidation stage, and the medium - to - long - term is bullish [9]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium opened low and moved higher, rising nearly 9%. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit range and margin standards. Although the fundamental trend has weakened, the demand for energy - storage batteries remains strong. The overall situation of carbonate lithium remains bullish, but the authenticity of market rumors needs to be carefully verified [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as the situation in Iran and the US - India relationship regarding oil imports, still affect the market, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has seen a slight increase in the operating rate, and the expected production in January has decreased. The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the inventory rate of asphalt refineries has continued to rise. The situation in Venezuela has affected the supply of heavy - oil raw materials for domestic refineries. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [15]. - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has declined slightly, and the enterprise operating rate has also decreased. The cost side has been affected by the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in oil prices. The supply has increased with new capacity coming on stream, and the demand is limited before the Spring Festival. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in a range [17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate of plastic has increased, while the downstream operating rate has declined. The cost side is affected by the Iranian situation, and new capacity has been put into production. With the decline in agricultural film orders, it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is basically stable, and the downstream operating rate has declined. The export has increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance has increased. The social inventory is still high, and it is expected that the 03 - 05 contracts will fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and moved lower. The supply has increased, and the inventory has been transferred from upstream to downstream. The downstream iron - water production has decreased slightly, but the steel mills still have a demand for raw materials during the winter - storage period. The coking coal price has support at the bottom [21][22]. - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved lower. The supply is stable, and the downstream winter - storage is mostly over. The inventory has been reduced, and it is expected that the urea price will slow down its decline, fluctuate, and then show a bullish trend [23].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have surged to new highs, with spot gold rising approximately 1.4% to over $4,730 per ounce, significantly up from around $4,300 at the beginning of the year and $2,600 a year ago. Spot silver also showed strength, surpassing $95 per ounce, up from about $72 at the start of the year and $30 a year ago [1]. Group 1 - The current geopolitical turmoil has made precious metals a preferred asset for investors [1]. - Analysts suggest that the rise in silver prices may face a ceiling around $95 per ounce, indicating potential limitations in further increases [1]. - The bond market sell-off could trigger economic concerns, with silver being more closely tied to the global economic cycle compared to gold [1]. Group 2 - Future commodity prices and financial market trends will largely depend on upcoming policy actions from Trump, who is expected to prioritize U.S. interests, potentially leading to trade disruptions and heightened tensions in transatlantic relations [1]. - The current deadlock in negotiations between the U.S. and Europe presents a challenging outlook, contributing to ongoing investor anxiety [1].

镍矿商PT Vale Indonesia周一表示，该公司获得的采矿生产配额很可能不足以满足其冶炼厂今年的需 求。 在此之前，印尼政府上周表示可能批准2026年约2.6亿吨的镍矿生产配额，比2025年的配额有所减少， 被认为无法满足需求。 上期所期镍在上涨2.36%至每吨144,180元后回调，日间收盘仅录得0.36%的涨幅。 LME指标三个月期镍目前下跌0.43%，至每吨18,055美元。 1月20日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜呈区间波动，投资者在等待新的催化剂推动铜价向任 一方向发展。 截至北京时间16:44，LME三个月期铜下跌0.52%，至每吨12,897.50美元，仍在13,000美元关口下方徘 徊。 上海期货交易所主力期铜日间收盘上涨0.58%，至每吨101,230元。 由于投资者对地缘政治风险保持谨慎，青睐黄金等避险资产，伦敦期铜周一的反弹失去动力。 铜是去年表现最好的基本金属，伦敦和上海铜价分别上涨41%和33%，实现创纪录涨势。 在基本金属市场的其他方面，印尼的镍政策仍是焦点。 其他金属方面，三个月期铝下跌0.47%，报每吨3,143.50美元；期镍下跌2.09%，至每吨18,180 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing downward pressure due to geopolitical risks, weak demand, and macroeconomic factors, leading to a bearish outlook for aluminum prices in the near term [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month aluminum price reported at $3141.5 per ton, down $24 per ton or 0.76% from the previous trading day [1]. - Domestic futures market saw the main Shanghai aluminum contract (2603) open at 24020 CNY per ton, with a daily high of 24285 CNY and a low of 23715 CNY, closing at 23950 CNY, down 20 CNY or 0.08% [1]. - Longjiang spot market prices ranged from 23670 to 23710 CNY per ton, down 180 CNY, with a discount of 170 to 130 CNY [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating issues in Greenland, are increasing market concerns about a potential trade war between the US and Europe, dampening investor sentiment [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have decreased to nearly 5%, which may support the dollar and limit upward movement in aluminum prices [2]. - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion CNY, with industrial output and service sector growth contributing positively to the economy [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is gradually increasing, but overall supply pressure remains limited, providing some support for aluminum prices [3]. - Demand for aluminum is weak, with spot prices declining for four consecutive trading days, leading to limited improvement in trading activity [3]. - Current seasonal demand weakness is expected to continue, with social inventory of aluminum ingots likely to accumulate further, putting pressure on prices [3].

原油周报：地缘显著增加波动率 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 前半周的拉涨可以视为短期地缘政治风险主导下的反弹，而非基本面转折。油价在2025年底触及低点后，本已积 累一定回升动能，近期驱动来自于多方面的地缘风险，包括伊朗动荡与供应中断担忧、美国对伊朗的政策持续施 压以及黑海地区油轮遭袭等事件。这成为油价上涨的主推力，市场已计入4-5美元/桶的地缘风险溢价。后半周由 于特朗普总统公开表示，已收到伊朗政府"停止处决抗议者"的保证，并暗示美国可能推迟军事干预，这直接缓 和了市场对伊朗原油出口中断的恐慌情绪，导致油价回吐地缘溢价。对于伊朗短期内我们认为正面冲突的可能性 降低 ...

1月21日周三，鲍威尔将出席美国最高法院关于美联储理事Lisa Cook案件的口头辩论。高市早苗宣布2 月8号举行日本众议院选举：将结束过度紧缩的财政政策。 特朗普据称"私信"欧方扬言不再只考虑"和平"、美必须控制格陵兰，公开讲话时拒绝说明是否会以武力 夺取，称若未就该岛问题达成协议将"百分之百"落实对欧关税。 【机构观点】 特朗普强购格陵兰岛可能是"TACO交易"，欧洲反制措施只具有象征性，但是美国仍在向伊朗等中东方 向调遣军队，引导地缘政治风险此起彼伏；全球主要国家财政宽松预期，美国一季度或释放六千亿美元 流动性，多国央行持续增加黄金储备，或使贵金属价格易涨难跌，但亦需警惕美国12月就业数据好坏参 半和消费端通胀CPI保持平稳，叠加多位美联储官员对继续降息保持谨慎，使市场预期美联储1月几无 降息且降息时点4月推迟至6月，特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事诉讼态度有所缓和，美国暂未对 白银、铂、钯等关键矿产加征进口关税。 【黄金期货行情表现】 1月20日，沪金主力暂报1054.66元/克，涨幅0.92%，今日沪金主力开盘价1045.28元/克，截至目前最高 1055.56元/克，最低1042.62元/克。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of LPG changed from 2602 to 2603, with prices showing a weak trend. The previous concerns about restricted Iranian gas exports had significantly boosted the domestic market. However, President Trump's statement eased market panic, leading to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Based on the current fundamental data, both the domestic production volume and imports of LPG have slightly increased, while the chemical demand has slightly declined but still remains supported. Given the high costs for downstream chemical enterprises, the negative feedback from PDH may affect the operating rate. In the future, with an expected decline in PDH operating rate and no further escalation of geopolitical events, the futures price may face downward pressure [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a weak and volatile trend for single - sided trading, while recommending a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - The main LPG contract changed from 2602 to 2603, and prices were weak. Geopolitical concerns initially boosted the market, but Trump's statement led to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in oil prices. Supply increased slightly, and chemical demand decreased slightly but still had support. High costs for downstream enterprises may affect PDH operating rates, and future prices may face pressure [4]. Strategy - Single - sided trading: Weak and volatile. Arbitrage: Wait - and - see. Options: Wait - and - see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The previous oil price increase was a short - term rebound driven by geopolitical risks rather than a fundamental turnaround. After reaching a low in late 2025, oil prices had some upward momentum, driven by various geopolitical risks. The easing of Iranian geopolitical risks led to a retracement of the $3 - 5 per barrel premium. Globally, high inventories, stable OPEC+ and US production, and sufficient supply continue to limit the upside of oil prices [8]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of major domestic refineries increased slightly by 0.26% to 77.24%, above the five - year average, with an expected increase in LPG supply. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.32% to 61.01%, at a relatively low historical level. Overall LPG production increased slightly due to the increase in major refineries and the decrease in independent refineries [13]. Demand - Overall, chemical demand still has support, except for the low operating rate of alkylation. Attention should be paid to the PDH operating rate under continuous losses. The current PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54% to 73.07%, and is expected to decline further next week. The MTBE operating rate remains at a high level [15][17]. Inventory - Port arrivals increased slightly but remained at a low level. Ports continued to deplete inventory as imports were insufficient. Chemical demand decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises fulfilled previous low - price contracts, but overall arrivals were limited, resulting in some ports holding back inventory. Factory inventories also decreased slightly due to low supply and smooth sales. The inventory levels of tertiary stations varied by region, with stable low - level inventory in North China, a significant increase in South China, and stable inventory along the Yangtze River [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Multiple price - related data charts are presented, including Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG prices, but no specific analysis is provided [24]. Spread Data - Multiple spread - related data charts are presented, such as the basis between different regions' LPG and the main contract, but no specific analysis is provided [27]. Disk Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, but no specific analysis is provided [30]. Spot Profit Data - Multiple profit - related data charts are presented, including import profits and PDH profits based on different price benchmarks, as well as etherification profit data, but no specific analysis is provided [34]. Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production volume, and crude oil processing volume are presented. A list of major domestic refinery maintenance plans and PDH device maintenance schedules is also provided [37][39][41]. Inventory Data - Data on the inventory levels of LPG ports and tertiary stations, as well as port capacity ratios, are presented [47].

Group 1 - The current global geopolitical situation is tense, with increased risks leading to heightened demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The potential for a dovish candidate, Rick Rieder, to lead the Federal Reserve may strengthen market expectations for faster and larger interest rate cuts [3] - The gold-silver ratio is currently at a relatively low historical level, indicating a potential for upward correction based on mean reversion statistics [4] Group 2 - Recent data shows significant inflows into major gold ETFs, indicating increased investor appetite for gold [6] - The US dollar index faces multiple pressures due to ongoing fiscal deficit and debt issues, along with uncertainties from foreign policy [7] - The domestic futures market shows a strong technical pattern, with the main gold futures contract confirming a short-term upward trend [14] Group 3 - Key variables to monitor include developments in the Federal Reserve leadership and geopolitical dynamics in hotspot regions [15] - The continued increase in holdings of the largest gold ETF (SPDR) serves as a barometer for large capital attitudes [16]