Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Upward [2] - Glass: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2][4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2][4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Declining [4] - Gold: Oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Retracement [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: On the sidelines [11] - MEG: On the sidelines [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased retracement after the release of short-term sentiment, and the expectation of production cuts reversing the situation again [2] - The macroeconomic situation is neutrally bullish, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The fundamentals of iron ore, coking coal and coke, and rebar are relatively strong in the short term, but risks of a phased retracement should be watched out for [2] - The market sentiment towards stock index futures/options is weakening, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [4] - The fundamentals of pulp are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to retrace [6] - The prices of logs are expected to be stable in the short term, with a slight increase in the cost side [6] - The prices of oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6] - The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the weekly average price may decline month-on-month [8] - The price of natural rubber is expected to remain firm, and attention should be paid to the situation in Southeast Asia and the production and sales of tires [11] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are in different situations, and short-term prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 918,000 tons, with subsequent supply remaining ample; arrivals have declined in the past two weeks, but shipments are expected to increase seasonally, and arrivals are expected to bottom out and rebound; the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable in the short term, and one can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - Coking coal and coke: The exchange has adjusted the trading limits for coking coal, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented; the fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively strong, but risks of a phased retracement should be watched out for [2] - Rebar: In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, the profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, and the total inventory pressure of steel is not obvious; the short-term sentiment of the steel industry has improved, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300 Index closed up 0.39%, the SSE 50 Index closed up 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.65%; funds flowed into the biotechnology and communication equipment sectors, and out of the insurance and banking sectors; it is recommended to reduce long positions on stock index futures [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has increased by 4 bps, and the central bank has conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases; the short-term logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [4] Light Industry Products - Pulp: The spot market prices of pulp are diverging, the cost price has declined, and the demand is in the off-season, so prices are expected to retrace [6] - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand from processing plants has increased, so prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined and inventories have increased, but industrial demand may bring potential positive factors; the inventory of domestic oils and fats is increasing, and demand is picking up, so prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: The supply side in China is under significant pressure, and demand is weak, but the weather in US soybean-producing areas may cause price fluctuations, so prices are expected to oscillate [6] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and the average settlement price of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly; the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined, and prices are expected to decline month-on-month [8] Soft Commodities - Natural rubber: The supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, and raw material prices are firm; the demand for tires has shown a differentiated trend, and inventory has declined slightly, so prices are expected to remain firm [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: The supply and demand of these products are in different situations, and short-term prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [11]

编辑 | 七三 美股齐跌 美国股市周二收低，标普500指数和纳指从历史高位回落。 截至收盘，道指下跌204.57点，报44632.99点，跌幅0.46%；标普500指数下跌18.91点，报6370.86点， 跌幅0.30%；纳指下跌80.29点，报21098.29点，跌幅0.38%。 大型成分股财报整体表现不一。联合健康公布第二季度调整后每股收益为4.08美元，低于市场预期的 4.59美元，且同比下滑40%。股价大跌7.5%，成为道指下行的主要拖累之一。 其他个股方面，波音股价下跌4.4%，默沙东股价收跌1.7%，联合包裹股价暴跌10.6%，消费品巨头宝洁 股价下跌0.3%。 诺和诺德重挫约22%，报53.94美元，创三年新低。公司下调2025财年销售和利润预期，预计全年销售 增长为8%-14%，此前为13%-21%，主因减肥药Wegovy销售表现不佳。 大型科技股涨跌不一。Meta Platforms 收跌 2.46%，特斯拉跌 1.35%，苹果跌 1.3%，亚马逊跌 0.76%， 英伟达下挫 0.70%，微软微涨 0.01%，谷歌A逆势上涨 1.65%。 热门中概股普遍走低，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌1.3 ...

大家好，今晚继续关注海内外市场的消息。 7月29日晚间，连续创下新高的美股，今天盘中突然直线跳水，不过随后上演深"V"走势。 道指跌约200点，纳指开盘一度涨超0.5%，随后跌约0.1%，标普500指数跌0.15%。 消息面上，中美结束在斯德哥尔摩的第二天贸易谈判。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在周三维持利率不变，而增长和通胀数据将进一步强化经济保持强劲的印象。 本周市场还将迎来一次重要考验——四大科技巨头将在两天内集中公布财报。 eToro的Bret Kenwell表示："如果这些事件也传递出经济与就业市场稳定的信号，股市有望继续上行， 而回调很可能被视为买入机会。" 华尔街策略师向那些担心美股涨势过快的投资者发出信息：任何短期回调都可能带来买入机会。 尽管市场对估值过高的担忧在增加，但汇丰、摩根士丹利和瑞银集团的策略师依然维持长期看涨观点， 认为强劲的企业盈利和经济数据、关税不确定性的减少以及人工智能的推动力，将使股市在明年继续走 高。 瑞银全球财富管理的Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi表示："我们预计未来12个月股市将继续上涨，但投资者 应留意未来几周的市场波动。我们认为，资本保值或分批建仓 ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.86%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,802.888 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, telecommunications, steel, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors led the gains, while agriculture, banking, and beauty care sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as CRO, recombinant proteins, and innovative drugs saw significant increases, while pork, poultry, and glyphosate experienced declines [2][7] Important News - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, and the 2026 growth rate was also adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. The IMF has also increased the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3% [3][8] - Recent US-China trade talks in Stockholm resulted in a consensus to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, with both sides aiming to enhance cooperation and reduce misunderstandings [3][8] Company Analysis: Yushutech - Yushutech has initiated its IPO guidance and launched its latest humanoid robot, Unitree R1, marking a significant step in its commercialization and capitalization process [12] - The company completed its IPO guidance registration on July 18, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the advisory institution. The controlling shareholder, Wang Xingxing, holds 23.82% of the shares directly and controls an additional 10.94% through a partnership, totaling 34.76% [13] - The launch of Unitree R1, priced starting at 39,900 yuan, aims to attract developers and educational institutions by providing a platform for application development, thereby expanding its ecosystem [14] - The pricing strategy reflects Yushutech's capabilities in self-research and domestic substitution of core components, positioning it to benefit from China's manufacturing advantages [14]

7月29日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价基本没有变化，交易商等待美国与智利和中国的贸易 会谈结果，以获得有关美国计划从周五开始对铜征收50%进口关税的更多信息。 伦敦时间7月29日17:00(北京时间7月30日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨5美元，或0.05%，收报每吨 9,798.0美元，持于略高于21天移动均线的水平。 最活跃COMEX期铜合约较LME指标期铜的升水从上周的30%降至26%，此前全球主要铜供应国智利表 示将在本周华盛顿举行的更广泛的贸易对话中讨论美国铜关税。 美国商务部长卢特尼克周二表示，尽管单独会谈仍在继续，但特朗普总统本周仍将就贸易协议做出决 定，这又带来了一层不确定性。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）29日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，小幅上调今明两年世界经济增长 预期。报告还提及，中国实际GDP年化增长率达到6%，超出预期。相较于4月份的预测，IMF将中国 2025年经济增速上调了0.8个百分点至4.8%。中国是全球最大的金属消费国。 据新华社报道，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典 ...

当地时间7月29日，路透社和益普索民调显示，美国总统特朗普的支持率下降一个百分点至40%，为其 第二任期内新低。报道称，美国民众仍然对其处理经济和移民政策的方式感到担忧。此前于7月15日至 16日进行的民调显示，特朗普的支持率为41%。 2025.07.30 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双 方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识 和伦敦框架落实情况。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措 施如期展期90天。 7月29日下午，2025《财富》世界500强排行榜榜单出炉。今年《财富》世界500强排行榜企业的营业收 入总和约为41.7万亿美元，同比增长约1.8%，超过全球GDP的三分之一。500家上榜公司的资产总额和 净资产总额均达到自《财富》世界500强排行榜创立以来的最高峰。亚马逊位列第2，苹果较去年下降1 位排在第8，谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软位列13位和22位。去 ...

Group 1 - The China-US economic talks were held in Stockholm, focusing on trade relations and macroeconomic policies, with a consensus to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days [2] - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list was released, showing a total revenue of approximately $41.7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 1.8%, with companies' total assets and net assets reaching record highs [3][4] - Huawei returned to the top 100 of the Fortune Global 500 after two years, while Nvidia had the highest net profit margin among the listed companies [4] Group 2 - Guangzhou's GDP grew by 3.8% in the first half of the year, which is lower than the provincial growth rate of 4.2% and the national rate of 5.3% [12] - The retail sales of Polestar in China dropped significantly, with only 6 units sold in June, indicating a near halt in its business operations in the market [27] - Apple announced the closure of its first store in Dalian, citing the departure of multiple retailers from the shopping center [26]

Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]

Group 1 - The China-US economic talks were held in Stockholm, where both sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for another 90 days [6] - The IMF significantly raised its economic growth forecast for China, increasing the expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and substantial tariff reductions [10] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released documents regarding the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, set to be implemented on August 1, 2025, including guidelines for licensed stablecoin issuers and anti-money laundering measures [7] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance announced the implementation of a national childcare subsidy system, with an estimated annual distribution of around 100 billion yuan, which is expected to stimulate demand in related industries [12] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced the establishment of China Changan Automobile Group Co., Ltd., which will be managed by the State Council [6] - The economic performance of state-owned enterprises showed a total revenue of 40,749.59 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and total profits of 2,182.53 billion yuan, down 3.1% [8]