2018年5月3日，中美双方开启第一轮贸易谈判；七年后的今天过去了，双方再次进行贸易谈判接触，有哪些不同？ 自俄乌冲突以来，世界秩序已经被改变，特朗普抱怨北约过分依赖美国，而新冠病毒的出现，也一定程度上重塑全球化，我国的制造业，则变得比七年前更 强大。 明白了这些变与不变，我们才能够更好分析这场两个大国之间的贸易谈判。 这次会谈的细节已经流出，我国将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士；美方的代表则是财长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔，他们也将前往瑞士。 和七年前最大的不同之处就在于，这一次双方的关税税率都非常高；2018年特朗普对我国价值2000亿美元的商品加征25%的关税，这一次则高达145%。 5月7日，距离特朗普宣布对等关税超过一个月。 世界上两个最大的经济体，终于要开始进行实质性接触了，对双方而言，这都是一件好事。但和七年前相比，这一次双方谈判有什么不同？ 有一些事实，在过去的七年时间里仍然没有改变，而这些事实，它有可能改变谈判走向。 还有一些变化，也有可能改变谈判走向。 但不可否认的是，这一次会谈显然是个好兆头，美方有意和我们进行谈判，对彼此来说，都算是赢家。 但这也很可能只是一个漫长而曲折过程的开始，客观上，双边 ...

期货热点追踪 日本橡胶期货七连涨，中国橡胶出口增长与进口缩减，中美贸易谈判能否带来新转机？橡胶期货的未来 走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

贵金属日报：高位震荡 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月9日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场延续震荡调整，因美联储利率决议及会后声明传递偏鹰信号不着急降息及美指明显回 升，以及美英贸易谈判缓和避险情绪。接下来焦点转向周内中美贸易谈判。最终黄金2506合约收报 3310.4美元/盎司，-2.4%；美白银2507合约收报于32.605美元/盎司，-0.57%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报790.78元/克，-1.41%；SHFE白银2506合约收8094元/千克，-1.78%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为83.5%，降息25个基点的概率为 16.5%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为29.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为10.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为42.1%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为39.4%，累计降息75个基点的概率为6.2%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增 2.01吨至93 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]

Group 1 - Oil prices increased on May 8, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, following a decline of over $1 the previous trading day [1] - Brent crude futures rose by $0.51, or 0.8%, to $61.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $0.57, or 1%, to $58.64 per barrel [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset and Chinese economic officials is aimed at addressing trade tensions that could impact global oil consumption growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid rising economic uncertainty has raised concerns about weak demand, limiting the extent of oil price increases [1] - A report from ING analysts indicated that the Fed's stance on interest rates has strengthened the dollar, which in turn has created additional resistance in the commodity markets [2] - Increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. have raised concerns among analysts about the potential for rising consumption as the summer demand period approaches [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ is set to increase oil production, which will add further pressure on oil prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to continuous supply - side pressure and the possibility of further easing of geopolitical risks, increasing market concerns about a loose supply - demand pattern. After a short - term rebound, oil prices will continue to be under pressure and mainly fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The suggested fluctuation ranges are [57, 67] for WTI, [59, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the futures price follows the fundamentals. The early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and industrial orders provide certain support, and the delayed resumption of maintenance devices supports the supply in the short - term. If the export policy is relaxed beyond expectations, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy volatility on the options side [30][32]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price stopped falling and rebounded, but the weak supply - demand structure has not changed. The styrene market rose and then fell, with port inventories continuing to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. It is recommended to short styrene at high levels [35][38]. Methanol - The inland methanol price is stable, but there is downward pressure on valuation. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high levels [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels. In the short - term, wait and see the short - term rebound. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is obvious, and it is recommended to short at high levels, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [46][51]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the price reaches a low level. For PP, the supply pressure eases slightly in the second - quarter maintenance season, but the long - term outlook is weak, with a downward risk [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with the PX09 fluctuating in the 6000 - 6400 range. For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, and the TA09 is expected to fluctuate in the 4200 - 4500 range. For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the EG09 in the 4050 - 4300 range. For short - fiber, follow the raw materials and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee of PF06. For bottle - chips, the absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported to some extent [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil was at $61.08 on February 8th and $61.12 on May 7th, with a decline of $0.04 (- 0.07%); WTI was at $58.07 on both dates. The spreads of various crude oil varieties also changed to different degrees [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending May 2, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value. Refinery utilization rate was 89%. There were changes in inventory, production, import, and export data of various oil products [5]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices showed different changes, with the 01 - 05 contract spread decreasing by 8.26%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.44%, and the factory - inventory decreased by 10.58% on a weekly basis [30][32]. Styrene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw material prices changed. Pure benzene prices rose, and the import profit was - 163.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices rose, and the EB2506 increased by 1.5%. The port inventory of styrene decreased by 7.0% [36][38]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices increased, and the MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 7.25%. The port - inland regional spread increased. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The enterprise inventory increased by 7.26%, and the port inventory increased by 2.69%. The upstream and downstream operating rates showed different changes [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot had small changes. The SH2505 increased by 2.0%, and the V2505 increased by 0.7%. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends [46][49][50]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PE and PP futures contracts increased slightly. The L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 10.70%. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 21.31%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%. The operating rates of PE and PP showed different changes [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased. PX - related prices and spreads also changed. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed to different degrees [58].

橡胶期货价格有所回落，供需预期不佳，中美贸易谈判在即，橡胶市场能否迎来反弹？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell over 1% during the U.S. trading session on May 7, reflecting a retreat from recent highs due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy statement [2] - Market participants are awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision, which is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged; dovish signals from Powell could boost gold prices, while hawkish tones may exert downward pressure [2][3] - Despite the short-term pullback in gold prices, the broader outlook remains neutral to bullish, supported by potential rate cuts and geopolitical instability that could revive buying interest [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart indicates a potential adjustment phase following three consecutive bullish days, with a possibility of a significant decline below 3300 if a bearish engulfing pattern occurs [3] - Short-term support is identified at 3355; if this level holds, there may be opportunities to go long, targeting 3400, with a further potential rise to 3430 if conditions allow [5] - The current trading range is between 3400 and 3360, with a focus on the 3360 support level; a break below this could indicate a shift in short-term trend [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices rebounded to $63 per barrel, while WTI approached $60, reflecting over a 3% increase due to easing trade concerns and optimistic global economic recovery expectations [6] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to a combination of improved trade sentiment and declining U.S. inventory levels, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish short-term outlook [6] - Long-term stability in the global energy market relies on supply-demand balance and economic recovery rather than isolated events; a breakthrough above $62 could signal a new upward trend [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with potential further declines towards the 50 level, while short-term movements show a rebound towards 60 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is present, although the strength of this momentum is lacking; the expectation is for continued upward movement in the short term [7] - Today's trading strategy recommends focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance at 59.7-60.2 and support at 56.5-56.0 [7]

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between China and the United States are ongoing, with China asserting that it will not accept any vague attitudes or preconditions from the U.S. [1] - China emphasizes the mutual benefits of trade but insists on not being coerced into accepting unequal terms imposed by the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the ChiNext index rising by 2%, indicating a focus on technology and small-cap stocks [3] - The continuation of the market rally depends on trading volume; sustained volume is necessary for the market to rise further [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 60-day and half-year moving averages, with a target of 3326 points [3] Group 3 - A significant trading volume of 1.36 trillion yuan was recorded, an increase of 170 billion yuan from the previous day, with nearly 5000 stocks rising [5] - The positive market conditions are attributed to the appreciation of the yuan and easing tariff expectations, leading to a favorable outlook for May [5] - The market is expected to remain strong, with a focus on maintaining upward trends in stock prices [5] Group 4 - The A-share market opened positively in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and returning to the 3300-point level, with nearly 5000 stocks in the green [7] - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of more favorable conditions ahead, as previous negative factors have been addressed [7] - A gradual upward trend is preferred over rapid increases, as there are still significant resistance levels to overcome [7]

换资前言： 黄金还能买吗？还能上车吗？现在的位置高不高，会不会突然见顶？听说黄金要跌到700以下，中美贸 易要和谈了黄金还能涨吗？每一天这样的问题被问无数遍。我的回答是：当你问的时候就应该行动，而 不是一直问。 你或许看过很多文章，找过很多人，投过很多石也问过很多路，最终还是无果，你也许在怀疑投资能否 真的赚到钱，但是很多机会都在你迟疑之时和你擦肩而过，你的眼里是百倍杠杆的利润，而我考虑的是 万丈深渊的风险，思路决定出路，看待行情不同的角度决定了你会为了利润铤而走险，而我会为了避开 风险而放过一单的利润。晟富这里有专业的团队，每一次建议都是多名分析师共同分析得出。我们对工 作的责任心，客户操作，分析长相伴。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(5月7日)欧市早盘，现货黄金维持日内大跌走势，目前金价位于3385美元/盎司附近，日内暴跌近40 美元。金价承受着巨大的抛售压力，从两周高点3438美元/盎司大幅回调。市场对即将举行的中美贸易 谈判重燃乐观情绪，并在美联储政策声明发布前出现获利回吐。此前金价连续两个交易日出现暴涨。周 二，现货黄金价格飙升近3%。中国商务部新闻发言人就中美经 ...