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广发期货《农产品》日报-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 07:42
| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 土海旗 Z0019938 2025年8月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | | 田沢田 | | | | | | | | | | | | 8月25日 8月22日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | 现价 江苏一级 8740 8600 ર૦ 0.58% | | | | | | | | | | | | 期价 Y2601 8536 8492 44 0.52% | | | | | | | | | | | | 墓差 Y2601 204 198 6 3.03% | | | | | | | | | | | | ﺗ | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0096 | | | | | | 合单 15760 15760 0 | | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | | 8月25日 8月22日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | ...
光大期货农产品日报-20250826
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 06:43
农产品日报(2025 年 8 月 26 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 表现。与上周相比,本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。周末北港玉米收购价格继续下 调,北港到货已较为有限,目前的收购价逐步向新粮靠拢。深加工收购价格也继 续偏弱,对东北玉米行情也有一定的不利影响。 周末山东地区整体维持偏弱运 行的态势。深加工企业到货量增加,贸易商出货积极,春玉米陆续上量,短期供 周末销区市场玉米价格。技术上,11 月合约成为主力合约,新粮上市的供应压 | 震荡 | | | 周一,玉米主力 2511 合约平开后震荡下行,期价收复前日涨幅,价格延续下行 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 应有所增加。从市场心态来看,市场看跌预期增强,下游企业采购积极性一般。 | | | | 力继续影响市场,玉米期价近月合约领跌、远期合约跟跌,短期急跌释放供应压 | | | | 力。但是,需要注意的是 11 月合约跌至贸易商预期的存粮成本区间,短期关注 | | | | 11 月合约 2150 整数关口的价格表现,警惕急跌后的反弹表现。 | | | 豆粕 | 周一,CBOT 大豆从两 ...
农产品日报:郑棉走势震荡偏强,白糖延续窄幅波动-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:19
农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 郑棉走势震荡偏强,白糖延续窄幅波动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘棉花2601合约14120元/吨,较前一日变动+90元/吨,幅度+0.64%。现货方面,3128B棉新疆到 厂价15100元/吨,较前一日变动-5元/吨,现货基差CF01+980,较前一日变动-95;3128B棉全国均价15235元/吨, 较前一日变动-8元/吨,现货基差CF01+1115,较前一日变动-98。 近期市场资讯,为保障纺织企业加工贸易用棉需要,现就2025年棉花关税配额外优惠关税税率加工贸易进口配额 (以下简称"滑准税加工贸易配额")申领有关事项公布如下。2025年棉花进口滑准税加工贸易配额总量为20万吨, 实行凭合同申领的方式发放。当配额发放数量累计达到配额总量,将停止接收企业申请。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面,8月USDA大幅下调全球棉花产量及期末库存,供需格局直接由偏松转为偏紧。 然而USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位,而且今年各主产国供应端天气的叙事性不足,美棉产区旱情 也相对稳定,减产预期能否兑现还有待观察。不过美棉平衡表有望较此前明显改善, ...
中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250826
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:53
. | . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 豆粕 | | 周末 ProFarmer 公布最终美豆单产调研结果,预计单产为 53 蒲式耳,小于美农 8 | | | 短线调整 | 月预计,偏利多。本周最新豆粕库存环比累库,偏利空。豆粕近日仍可关注逢低看 | | ★ | | 多机会,但上行空间暂有限。 | | | | 高库存,高仓单现实,中澳贸易改善令近日市场炒作情绪有所降温。菜粕近日跟随 | | 菜粕 | | 豆粕下跌。最新消息显示加籽 8 月产量预估环比大幅调增,偏利空。操作上,可关 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 注调整后企稳短多机会,但追多宜谨慎。关注中澳后续进展以及加方对于中国反倾 | | | | 销结果是否存在意图改善行为。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期,并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | | 望偏多,逢低看多思路为主。8 月前二十天出口数据较好。印尼公布 6 月库存,环 | | | 短期偏多 | 比大幅减少。棕榈油高位整理行情,在生柴消费政策背景下,操作上仍以逢低看多 | | ★★ | | 思路 ...
【粕类日报】供应压力仍然存在,盘面小幅企稳-20250825
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 15:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal market still exists, but the domestic soybean meal market has shown a certain rebound, and the rapeseed meal market has started to stabilize. The price center of the soybean system is expected to move downward, and the soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to oscillate at a low level [4][5][8] - In the medium - term market, the positives for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. The soybean meal monthly spread still has downward pressure, while the rapeseed meal monthly spread may be strong, especially for the far - month spreads [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - US soybean futures oscillated. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded, and the rapeseed meal futures began to stabilize. The soybean meal monthly spread continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread oscillated [4] - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions had different changes; for rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions also had corresponding changes. The spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, and spot spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed different trends [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US old - crop soybean balance sheet is bullish, with exports basically completed and crush adjusted upward, resulting in a decrease in ending stocks. New - crop soybean supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area despite an increase in yield per unit. New - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited [5] - South American old - crop soybeans are in a supply - demand loosening situation. The production and crush of major exporting countries are expected to increase, and the ending stocks or exports may rise. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] - The global soybean meal supply pressure is obvious, with an expected increase in soybean crush in major producing areas and a slight increase in imports in major importing countries [5] - The domestic soybean and rapeseed meal spot market is loose. The oil mill operating rate is high, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a high level. The market trading volume has increased, mainly in basis trading [7] - As of August 22, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, the operating rate was 63.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 0.31% from last week and a decrease of 5.46% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 3.8% from last week and a decrease of 29.71% year - on - year [7] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. As of August 22, the rapeseed crush of coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, the operating rate was 12.79%, the rapeseed inventory was 153,000 tons, an increase from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease from last week [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty, but macro - level disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to drop significantly due to high demand for US soybeans [8] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean meal 05 contract [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread [9] - Options: Buy call options (for reference only) [9] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data for Brazilian soybeans of different shipment periods, including CNF, CBOT contracts, exchange rates, soybean meal prices, soybean oil prices, and changes in pressing profits [9]
棉花走高、玉米下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:53
棉花走高、玉米下挫 (一)棉花:高开高走 一、农产品板块综述 棉花上涨,商业库存不断去化,下游金九银十消费旺季来临,纺 企订单改善,支撑棉价上涨。玉米大跌,进口玉米持续拍卖,部分地 区春玉米上市,小麦饲用替代持续,新玉米丰收预期较强,供应充足, 玉米承压大跌,延续下行趋势。鸡蛋弱势难改,无力反弹,供应端蛋 鸡存栏高企,供应充足,旺季预期落空,需求不振,鸡蛋承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 焦点关注:玉米主力 2511 合约大幅收阴,将前日反弹幅度回吐, 期价受到供应充足的压力: 1.中储粮持续拍卖进口玉米,拍卖常态化,市场氛围偏空,部分 地区春玉米上市,现货市场供应充足。小麦饲用替代持续,下游需求 疲弱,深加工亏损,养殖业利润一般,下游大规模补库动力不足,新 玉米丰收预期较强,利空因素压榨玉米期价大幅下跌。 2.大连玉米主力 2511 合约报收长阴,再度跌至均线系统之下, 各均线空头排列,MACD 持续下行,绿柱扩大,技术偏弱,策略上轻 仓空单。主力 2511 合约支撑 2140,阻力 2167。 焦点关注:棉花主力 2601 合约高开高走,增仓上行,触及两周 高点,受到需求旺季来临的提振: 1.棉花商业库存持续 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250825
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:49
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 25 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-三油两粕-20250825
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:22
联系方式:13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8 月 22 日,宏观支撑和前期调整后压力释放,植物油盘面收涨。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8458 元/吨,按收盘价日环比上涨 0.67%,日涨仓 | | | | | 2813 手; | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8142 元/吨,按收盘价日环比上涨 0.52%,日增 | | | | | 仓 6604 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 9592 元/吨,按收盘价日环比上涨 0.97%,日增 | | | | | 仓 5514 手; | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 9294 元/吨,按收盘价日环比上涨 0.98%,日增仓 | | | | | 2237 手; | | | | | 菜籽油主力合约 OI2601 合约报收于 9890 元/吨,按收盘价日环比上涨 1.01%,日增 | | | | | 仓 10817 手。 | | | | | 菜籽油次力合约 ...
棕榈油:美豆油SRE利空出尽,国际油脂上涨豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:09
2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油:美豆油SRE利空出尽,国际油脂上涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理 | 2 | | 豆粕:隔夜美豆小幅收涨,连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一:反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米:震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖:窄幅波动 | 7 | | 棉花:期货价格震荡偏强 | 8 | | 鸡蛋:近端关注淘鸡节奏,远端情绪仍偏弱 | 10 | | 生猪:收储利多落地,等待现货印证 | 11 | | 花生:关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油:美豆油 SRE 利空出尽,国际油脂上涨 豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,高位震荡整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250822
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 15:06
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 8 月 22 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究:陈界正 期货从业证号:F3045719 投资咨询证号:Z0015458 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.73%至 1067.25 美分/蒲,CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.17%至 296.6 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA:美国 2024/2025 年度大豆出口净销售为-0.6 万吨,前一周为-37.8 万 吨;2025/2026 年度大豆净销售 114.3 万吨,前一周为 113.3 万吨。美国 2024/2025 年度豆粕出口净销售为 4.6 万吨,前一周为 2.6 万吨;2025/2026 年度豆粕净销售 17.6 万吨,前一周为 24.7 万吨。 2.Pro Farmer: 预计 2025 年爱荷华州 D7 区域大豆平均结荚数为 1562.54 个, 2024 年作物巡查为 1366.22 个,D4 区域大豆平均结荚数为 1376.15 个,2024 年作物 巡查为 1254.09 个,D1 区域大豆平均结荚数为 1279.25 个,2024 年作物巡查为 1108.76 个,伊 ...