从发布数据看，工业生产稳定增长，服务业平稳增长，市场销售规模扩大，制造业投资保持增长，货物 进出口增速回升，就业形势总体稳定。11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长 0.44%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.2%；社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%；货物进 出口总额38987亿元，同比增长4.1%；全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，与上月持平。 今年以来，各地区各部门按照党中央决策部署，加强科技创新力度，培育壮大新兴产业，布局建设未来 产业，推动改造传统产业，积极培育和发展新质生产力。付凌晖介绍，1-11月份，规模以上高技术制造 业增加值同比增长9.2%，智能消费设备制造业增加值增长7.6%。规模以上数字产品制造业增加值同比 增长9.3%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业生产指数增长11.3%。同时，规模以上工业水电、核电、 风电和太阳能发电量同比增长8.8%，煤炭、化工等行业通过改造升级，生产能力和技术水平稳步提 升，煤炭、化工行业增加值同比分别增长6.3%和7.8%。 中央纪委国家监委网站 陈昊 12月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍11月份国民经济运行情况。国家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [6] Core Insights - The focus is on the investment opportunities in the coking coal sector, particularly as current coking coal prices are lower than thermal coal prices, and some coking coal stocks are trading below their net asset value [3][65] - The report highlights that the market's pessimistic expectations for coking coal stocks are already reflected in their prices, suggesting a potential for left-side positioning in this sector [3][65] - The long-term contract prices for thermal coal at production sites are expected to stabilize prices and reduce volatility, with specific stocks like Shaanxi Coal and Zhongmei Energy being recommended [3][65] Industry Overview - The report notes that the coking coal downstream is about to begin seasonal inventory replenishment, while the thermal coal downstream has largely completed its replenishment [8] - Current coking coal futures prices are significantly lower than thermal coal prices, with the ratio of coking coal futures to thermal coal prices at a historical low [8][27] - The coal mining operating rates remain low compared to the same period last year, indicating supply constraints [30][29] Key Events - A recent meeting by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to focus on core responsibilities and resist "involution" competition, which may impact the coal sector's operational strategies [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of coking coal futures was significantly lower than that of thermal coal, indicating a potential for price recovery in the coking coal market [8][27] - The report indicates that the inventory levels at major ports are high, which may influence future price movements in the coal market [37][40]

国家统计局最新发布数据显示，11月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨 0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 "11月份，居民消费持续恢复，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以 来最高。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨 0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 具体来看，食品中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨，对 CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；牛肉和羊肉 价格分别上涨6.2%和3.7%，涨幅均有扩大；猪肉和禽肉类价格分别下降15.0%和0.6%，降幅均有收窄。 11月份，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 "服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个百分点和 0. ...

11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源 价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工 业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 CPI同比涨幅扩大 服务价格下降0.4%，影响CPI环比下降约0.16个百分点。其中，节后出行需求季节性回落，宾馆住宿、 飞机票、旅行社收费和交通工具租赁费价格分别下降10.4%、10.2%、6.2%和3.6%，合计影响CPI环比下 降约0.13个百分点；房屋租赁进入淡季，房租价格下降0.2%。 核心CPI上涨1.2% CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品 价格由降转涨拉动。 食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百 分点。食品中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨，对CPI同比的 上拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；牛肉和羊 ...

截至发稿，美腾科技市值为23亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——已有75人遇难，1名死者为消防员，还有10名消防员受伤！记者现场直击香 港大埔火灾：燃烧的宏福苑，五级大火的五个谜团 每经AI快讯，美腾科技（SH 688420，收盘价：25.53元）11月28日晚间发布公告称，公司限售股份763 万股将于2025年12月9日解禁并上市流通，占公司总股本比例为8.63%。 （记者 王晓波） 2025年1至6月份，美腾科技的营业收入构成为：煤炭行业占比79.76%，非煤矿业占比19.58%，其他占 比0.67%。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.81% to close at 3939.81 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 0.92% to 13080.49 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.16% to 3069.22 points. Overall, there were 1274 stocks that rose while 4103 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 19261 billion yuan, an increase of 153 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the media, computer, and electronics sectors showed positive performance with increases of 1.60%, 0.93%, and 0.12% respectively. Conversely, the coal, electric equipment, steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors faced declines, with decreases of 3.17%, 2.97%, 2.85%, 2.80%, and 2.67% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included Pinduoduo partners, Xiaohongshu platform, WEB3.0, Kimi, Douyin Doubao, multimodal models, internet celebrity economy, operating systems, virtual humans, intelligent entities, ChatGPT, AIGC, medical payment reform, live streaming sales, and Chinese corpus. In contrast, the lithium battery positive electrode, lithium battery negative electrode, and lithium iron phosphate battery sectors experienced a pullback [2][12].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Core Insights - The overall industrial production in China is stable with significant growth in various sectors, indicating a solid advancement towards high-quality development [1] Group 1: Industrial Production Overview - In the first ten months of the year, the industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's growth by 0.3 percentage points [1] - In October, the industrial added value grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% after seasonal adjustments [1] - Among the three major sectors, manufacturing increased by 4.9%, while mining and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply grew by 4.5% and 5.4%, respectively [1] - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 29 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 70.7% [1] - Of the 623 major industrial products tracked, 313 saw an increase in production, representing a growth coverage of 50.2% [1] Group 2: Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 8.0% year-on-year, accounting for 36.1% of the total industrial output, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] - All eight industries within equipment manufacturing reported growth, with the automotive and electronics sectors leading at growth rates of 16.8% and 8.9%, contributing 22.8% and 19.3% to the overall industrial growth, respectively [2] - The railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors have maintained double-digit growth since December 2024, with a growth rate of 15.2% in October [2] - High-end equipment products are steadily developing, with production increases of 71.3% for railway locomotives, 21.4% for civil steel ships, and 16.9% for generator sets [2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Digital Integration - The integration of the real economy and digital economy is deepening, with high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 7.2% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding the overall industrial growth by 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points [3] - Specific sectors such as electronic materials, integrated circuits, and smart vehicle equipment saw substantial growth rates of 35.5%, 33.7%, and 28.4%, respectively [3] - The rapid development of "artificial intelligence+" has led to production increases of 34.0% for servers and 17.7% for integrated circuits; the robotics sector is also thriving, with production of robot reducers and industrial robots increasing by 4.6 times and 17.9%, respectively [3] Group 4: Traditional Industries - The petroleum processing industry saw an 8.1% year-on-year increase in added value, with the biofuel processing sector growing by 19.1%, contributing 1.9 percentage points more than the same period in 2024 [4] - The chemical fiber industry grew by 7.3%, with bio-based materials manufacturing increasing by 26.3%, contributing 13.3 percentage points more than the same period in 2024 [4] - Other traditional industries also showed positive growth, with chemical and coal industries increasing by 7.1% and 6.5%, respectively; non-ferrous and ferrous metal mining grew by 6.2% and 5.9% [4] - The long-term positive conditions and trends for China's industrial economy remain unchanged, although challenges such as insufficient effective demand and pressure on corporate profits persist [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic caustic soda industry is experiencing significant capacity expansion, with total production capacity expected to exceed 49 million tons by the end of 2024, continuing into 2025 despite a slowdown in new capacity additions in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The overall capacity utilization rate for domestic caustic soda plants has increased to 84.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week and 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by new capacity stabilizing and strong production profits [1] - In early November, eight plants are expected to restart operations, significantly outpacing the four plants scheduled for maintenance, which may lead to increased supply pressure [2] - The execution of maintenance plans will be a key variable affecting supply elasticity, as some companies may delay maintenance to maintain high operational loads [2] Group 2: Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for caustic soda is diversified, with alumina being the primary consumer, accounting for over 30% of consumption, but alumina prices have been declining since mid-July 2025 due to increased supply [3] - The overall operating rate in the caustic soda industry has been significantly lower than the same period in 2024, as companies have reduced production in response to weak demand and profit expectations [3] - Non-alumina sectors are currently in a traditional off-season, with limited demand for caustic soda, primarily driven by essential small orders [4] Group 3: Cost Factors - The price of coal, a key component in caustic soda production, has increased by 15.59% since the long holiday, raising production costs and providing support against price declines [5] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise due to cold weather, which will further increase coal consumption [5] - Coal supply constraints and low inventory levels at northern ports are expected to maintain upward pressure on coal prices, providing cost support for caustic soda [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The caustic soda market is facing a core contradiction of increasing supply and weak demand, leading to overall pressure on the fundamentals [6] - Despite the supply increase, the lack of marginal demand drivers is expected to limit the downward price movement of caustic soda, resulting in a predominantly weak oscillation in prices [6]

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel futures market has shifted from an upward trend to a downward one due to concerns about high social steel inventories, geopolitical factors, and currency exchange rate fluctuations. The market is expected to continue its downward trend, and investors should focus on the spot market and production data [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 4, prices in a few spot markets for rebar and hot-rolled coils declined. Rebar prices in Wuxi, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, and Changsha dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil prices in Nanjing, Jinan, Wuxi, Guangzhou, and Shenyang decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline after a death cross the previous day. The daily MACD red bars of these contracts have been narrowing for three consecutive days [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - After a significant rebound due to eased geopolitical tensions and improved terminal demand, the steel futures market has reversed its trend. The focus has shifted to the high social steel inventories, leading to a sharp decline [10]. - The strengthening of the US dollar, weakening of the RMB, and reduced foreign capital inflows have negatively impacted the pricing of industrial products related to domestic demand, including black metals [10][11]. - The recent sharp decline in iron ore and coking coal prices is mainly due to the accelerated production cuts by steel mills in the past two weeks, which has led to a lack of cost support for steel and a full manifestation of the negative feedback effect [11]. - The steel futures market is expected to continue its downward trend, and it is difficult to find support at previous lows. Investors should monitor the spot market and this week's production data [11]. 3.2 Industry News - From January to September 2025, the construction industry continued to contract, while the manufacturing industry grew steadily. The real estate market remained sluggish, infrastructure investment growth slowed, and various manufacturing sectors showed different trends [12]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's steel product structure has been optimized. The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has increased from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024, and is expected to exceed 50% in 2025, while the proportion used in construction has decreased from 58% to 50% and is still declining [12]. - At the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, but was still higher than at the beginning of the year and the same period last year [12]. - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. has made breakthroughs in the research and application of ultra-high-strength steel for automobiles and is actively developing aluminum and magnesium alloys for automobiles [12]. - Xining Special Steel's controlling shareholder, Tianjin Jianlong, pledged 50.2397 million shares to support the company's production and operations [12]. - China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. announced its semi - annual profit distribution plan for 2025 [12][13]. - As of October 31, the Ganqimao Port had completed a certain amount of import and export freight volume, mainly including coal, copper concentrate, and manganese ore [13]. - China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs on rare earth exports, emphasizing dialogue and cooperation [13]. - OPEC expects positive oil demand and plans to maintain supply - demand balance, with a projected increase in oil demand of 1.3 million barrels per day this year [13]. - Russian coal enterprises suffered a net loss of 263.2 billion rubles from January to August 2025, with a lower proportion of profitable enterprises compared to the same period last year [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including spot prices, social inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates of steel products, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][19][23][26][29][33]