策略联合行业 周期在扩散 20260129 摘要 上游周期品受益于资金面宽松和产能周期底部，供需紧平衡推动价格上 涨，化工、黑色链、地产链等领域具备投资机会，短期市场强势，长期 逻辑支持，但需关注结构性轮动和性价比。 化工行业公募持仓低配，双碳政策限制新增产能，资本开支负增长限制 供给，行业景气度向上。关注石油石化资源禀赋好的企业，基础化工需 求超预期及双碳政策边际变化下的核心资产，以及出海方向的轮胎企业。 煤炭板块供给收缩，海外需求增加，库存下降，价格随时可能上涨。PB 角度看公司被低估，现货比例高的公司业绩弹性仍然存在，应乐观地看 待节后市场，并关注被严重低估且具备业绩弹性的煤炭公司。 全球动荡局势下，实物资产崛起，黄金牛市持续，地缘冲突加剧避险情 绪，央行购金持续，推荐紫金黄金国际和山东黄金。工业金属看好铝和 铜，铝板块重点推荐中国铝业，铜板块则建议配置藏格紫金与洛钼。 顺丰控股具备绝对收益和估值修复空间，2025 年与 2026 年的绝对收 益率为 3.8%，估值创十年新低，后续 EPS 上修与 PE 修复空间较大。 顺丰同城第三方配送领域占据领先地位，未来互联网大厂合作将带来单 量与业绩的大幅提升。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong fluctuation today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. However, the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 0.57% and 0.47% respectively. The total market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The gold sector led the market, with significant gains in cyclical products such as non-ferrous metals, coal, oil, and chemicals. Conversely, sectors like machinery, photovoltaics, and pharmaceuticals experienced some pullbacks. Overall, the market sentiment was neutral to weak, with over 3600 stocks declining [1] - The gold price surged past the $5200 per ounce mark, driving up gold stocks and the non-ferrous metal sector. The Gold Stock ETF (517400) rose by 10.00%, the Mining ETF (561330) increased by 7.38%, and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) gained 7.37%. The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to its safe-haven appeal and a renewed "sell America" trading logic, alongside geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] Commodity Market Dynamics - The Coal ETF (515220) rose by 4.75%, supported by soaring gold and silver prices, a bullish atmosphere in the non-ferrous sector, and ongoing price increases in chemicals. The rise in oil and natural gas prices has also led to expectations of higher coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, there is potential for reduced supply, and winter demand for electricity and heating is improving, leading to a gradual depletion of accumulated coal inventories [2] - The Oil ETF (561360) increased by 4.42%, influenced by heightened geopolitical uncertainties and a significant reduction in U.S. crude oil production due to extreme weather conditions, which saw a drop of 2 million barrels per day. This disruption in supply is expected to have a notable impact on short-term supply and demand dynamics [2] Debt Market Insights - The bond market has seen a continued rebound, with the 10-Year Treasury ETF (511260) rising by 0.47% over the past 10 days. The outlook remains for narrow fluctuations due to the K-shaped economic recovery, where old growth drivers are weakening while new ones are emerging. This situation complicates the assessment of the macroeconomic state [3] - The traditional economy's downturn may further support the bond market, as the profitability of long-term bonds has decreased, leading to significant outflows from trading positions. The remaining allocation is likely to focus more on economic realities. The current monetary policy stance is neutral, providing strong guidance for maintaining a reasonable range in the bond market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the factors on the news front, the prices of black - series commodity futures have turned from weak to strong recently, and the changes in the fundamentals tend to show a basic balance between supply and demand. It is expected that there is a high possibility of a moderately strong oscillation in the future market. It is advisable to arrange medium - to long - term buy - hedging or investment positions on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On January 26, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rose. The rebar price in Shenyang market increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the rebar prices in Hangzhou, Wuhan, Beijing, Baotou, and Chongqing markets rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Nanchang, Baotou, Shenyang, Harbin, and Guangzhou markets increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai market fell by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to decline, showing a trend of a golden cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts narrowed for two consecutive trading days [8]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News front: Europe and the United States will not impose additional tariffs on each other due to the Greenland issue for the time being, and the risk appetite of the global financial market has turned to recovery again. The US military is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has become the focus of geopolitical attention again. The international crude oil and energy prices have been significantly boosted by the tense situation in the Middle East and the low - temperature weather in Eurasia, and the strong energy prices have partially spilled over to the metal commodity market [9][10]. - Fundamentals: The output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for four consecutive weeks, while the demand has declined, approaching the lowest level since mid - October last year and the second - lowest level since late February last year. Due to the weekly oversupply, the total inventory has started to increase. On the cost side, the spot price of iron ore has risen after significantly giving back the gains since December 25 last year, while the spot price of coke has been relatively stable after the fourth round of price cuts. However, urged by coke enterprises, more and more steel enterprises are considering accepting a new round of price increases for coke [10]. - Raw materials: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has decreased by 4.7% on a four - week basis compared to the previous period, but the arrival volume has increased by 3.6%. The port iron ore inventory has reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons, and steel mills have replenished their iron ore stocks to a 23 - day available level. Independent coking enterprises have slightly reduced production after following the increase in production of steel enterprises in the past four weeks. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded again since January 12. Except on January 16, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has exceeded 190,000 tons again, and the supply of imported coal has rebounded again. Considering the cold weather in most of the north, the supply and demand are still relatively balanced [10]. 3.2 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Association: The industry should promote the application of energy - saving technologies based on the three - year summary of extreme energy efficiency to promote the green and low - carbon transformation of the steel industry [11]. - Production data of key steel enterprises in mid - January 2026: The average daily output of crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the average daily output of pig iron increased by 1.8% month - on - month, and the average daily output of steel products increased by 3.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 7.3% compared with the previous ten - day period [11]. - Corporate performance: Shagang Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to increase by 50.69% - 78.37% year - on - year; Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 1.85 - 2.05 billion yuan in 2025; Huaibei Mining Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to decrease by about 69.21% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Coal and Electric Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of about 916 million yuan in 2025 [11][12]. - Market demand: China's demand for thermal coal decreased by 0.4% in 2025, and the proportion of the power industry further declined to 62.8% [12]. - International trade: Australia launched a safeguard measure investigation on imported pre - fabricated steel structures on January 23, 2026; Thailand decided to maintain the original anti - dumping tax rates on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan region, and Vietnam for another five years on January 22, 2026 [12]. - International situation: The US Treasury Department imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems on January 23; the world's crude steel output in December 2025 decreased by 3.7% year - on - year [12]. - Market expectation: The market believes that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the January monetary policy meeting has reached 95% [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][19].

煤炭行业近期情况如何？ 动力煤方面，本周主产区多数煤矿正常生产，仅少数暂时停产，对供给略有收 缩。尽管寒潮影响短期内拉动终端日耗同比正增长，但煤炭价格仍小幅回落， 这主要由于北港存煤同比偏高 150 万吨至 2,700 万吨左右，中转港口货源充足。 此外，由于年底部分抢进口印尼煤炭存量以及内外贸多元补库，使得终端存煤 处于相对安全水平。本轮寒潮进入尾声后预计气温回升，加之春节假期临近， 周期行业-春季躁动，周期看好哪些方向？20260125 摘要 玻纤行业受益于风电和新能源车需求增长，粗纱和电子纱均呈现结构性 需求向好和量价齐升态势，企业已发布涨价函，预计 2026 年业绩将有 所体现，龙头企业中国巨石具备成本优势，有望受益于中高端产品占比 提升。 消费建材企业通过渠道变革，大力发展小 B 端及 C 端渠道，现金流及盈 利能力明显改善。三棵树发力家装墙面漆，兔宝宝稳健发力小 B 端，且 消费建材已宣布涨价，市场供给侧逐渐缓和。 水泥行业 2026 年需求或将萎缩，但供给侧存在亮点，如政府限产、市 场化整合及西部基建投资，海外市场需求旺盛，出海水泥企业成长性突 出，关注海螺水泥和华新水泥。 动力煤市场短期内受寒 ...

踔厉奋发向前进 笃行实干绘蓝图——习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部专题研讨班开班式上的重要 讲话激励广大干部群众奋进"十五五"开局之年 省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神专题研讨班20日至23日在中央党校（国家行政学 院）举行。习近平总书记在开班式上发表重要讲话，就全面深刻准确领会和把握党的二十届四中全会战 略部署等重大问题进行深入阐述，提出明确要求。 连日来，广大干部群众认真学习习近平总书记重要讲话精神。大家表示，要以习近平总书记重要讲话为 指引，保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，努力实现"十五五"良好开局，奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局 面。 坚定信心 不断增强我国发展的确定性和可持续性 习近平总书记以"四个有利于"深刻总结了制定和实施五年规划体现的政治优势，以"五个坚持"概括了在 长期实践中创造积累的丰富经验。 "总书记的重要讲话深刻阐明了制定和实施五年规划的重要内涵，我们党不断结合新的实际把这一优势 发扬光大，为推进中国式现代化提供坚强制度保证。"中央党校（国家行政学院）经济学教研部主任赵 振华说，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，要坚定制度自信， 牢牢抓住历史 ...

昨日市场午后震荡回升，三大指数集体翻红，创业板指走势较强。沪深两市成交额2.69万亿，较上一个 交易日放量910亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超3500只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天概 念爆发，近二十只成分股涨停，巨力索具2连板，顺灏股份、中超控股、西部材料涨停。机器人概念反 复走强，福莱新材、毅昌科技涨停。油气概念延续强势，洲际油气2连板。煤炭板块表现活跃，大有能 源3天2板。PCB概念快速拉升，鹏鼎控股等多股涨停。下跌方面，保险、半导体、医药等板块跌幅居 前。其中创新药概念集体下挫，艾迪药业、回盛生物大跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.14%，深成指涨0.5%， 创业板指涨1.01%。 商业航天产业方兴未艾，正迈入需求侧与供给侧双向发力的黄金时代。1)卫星发射：民营火箭公司发展 迅速，产业链处于国家航天向商业航天的转变阶段。建议关注结构件供应商。2)卫星制造：当前低轨卫 星主要集中在空间段以及地面段的基础设施建设，短期聚焦卫星制造领域。上中游的分系统及材料端因 直接支撑卫星量产，有望率先受益。 龙头房企偿债方案落地标志着市场信用方面压力的短期纾解，叠加近期地产政策预期升温，有助于带来 地产股估值修复机遇。重 ...

| | SALES AND THE SEARTH AND THE STATE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 1.14 | 44.54亿元 | 中际旭创 | | 航天航空 | 4.58 | 30.32亿元 | 三角防务 | | 电子元件 | 1.39 | 21.67亿元 | 鹏鼎控股 | | 通用设备 | 1.05 | 21.26亿元 | 雪人集团 | | 光伏设备 | 2.61 | 14.79亿元 | 国晟科技 | | 煤炭行业 | 2.48 | 11.08亿元 | 大有能源 | | 玻璃玻纤 | 3.33 | 8.85亿元 | 九鼎新材 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 船舶制造 | 4.24 | 8.75亿元 | 中国船舶 | | 非金属材料 | 0.82 | 8.74亿元 | 沃尔核材 | | 互联网服务 | 1.4 | 8.68亿元 | 润泽科技 | | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 | | | | 据交易所数据显示，截至1月22日午后一小时，大盘主力资金净流出298.41亿元。主力资金流入前十大板块分别为： 通信设备（4 ...

| | 板块名称 涨跌幅(%) 板块资金流向 | | 净流入最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 航天航空 | 3.54 | 22.98亿元 | 航天电子 | | 通信设备 | 0.69 | 17.68亿元 | 天孚通信 | | 通用设备 | 0.8 | 14.97亿元 | 巨力索具 | | 光伏设备 | 2.14 | 12.00亿元 | 隆基绿能 | | 非金属材料 | 0.68 | 9.41亿元 | 沃尔核材 | | 煤炭行业 | 1.81 | 8.86亿元 | 大有能源 | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 据交易所数据显示，截至1月22日午间收盘，大盘主力资金净流出284.13亿元。主力资金流入前十大板块分别为：航天航空（22.98亿元）、 通信设备（17.68 亿元）、 通用设备（14.97亿元）、 光伏设备（12.00亿元）、 非金属材料（9.41亿元）、 煤炭行业（8.86亿元）、 软件开发（8.15亿元）、电子元件（7.82 亿元）、 船舶制造（7.50亿元）、 石油行业（7.20亿元）。 | 软件开发 | 0.76 | 8.15亿元 | 中国软件 | | --- | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent price increase is structural and unlikely to have a trend - setting impact on interest rates. The central bank may keep monetary policy stable or make minor adjustments, and the bond market may recover after a short - term shock [5][16][35] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Current Price Situation - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points year - on - year to 0.8%, rising for 4 consecutive months to the highest level since March 2023. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and its month - on - month figure was at or above zero for 5 consecutive months, reaching the highest level since September 2024 [1][8] 2. Structural Characteristics of Price Increase - **CPI**: Gold price increases have continuously pushed up CPI. The year - on - year growth rate of other supplies and services in CPI rose from 3% - 5% in 2024 to 5% - 17% in 2025, contributing 0.5 percentage points to the year - on - year CPI growth rate in December 2025. In the past two months, vegetable prices have also had a short - term impact, with the contribution to CPI year - on - year growth rising from about - 0.3% to 0.3% and 0.4% in November and December [2][9] - **PPI**: It is mainly driven by the non - ferrous metals industry. From August to December 2025, the cumulative month - on - month increases in PPI of non - ferrous metal mining and dressing and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries were 14.9% and 8.7% respectively [2][9] 3. Impact of Price Increase on Interest Rates - **Lack of Impact on Corporate Profit and Financing Demand**: Although PPI has improved, corporate profits have not improved. In November 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises decreased by about 13% year - on - year, so it is difficult to drive up corporate financing demand [3][17] - **Limited Monetary Policy Response**: The central bank's monetary policy has limited ability to regulate input - driven and industry - concentrated price increases. Referring to the situation of pork prices in 2019, the central bank may not respond significantly [4][17] 4. Historical Cases of Limited Impact of Structural Price Increase on Interest Rates - **2019 Pork Price Case**: In the second half of 2019, pork prices significantly pushed up CPI, but the central bank did not tighten monetary policy. Instead, it kept interest rates stable and even cut the MLF rate by 5bps in November 2019 [4][17] - **2021 Coal Price Case**: In 2021, coal prices soared due to supply - side factors, and PPI rose significantly. The central bank regarded it as a short - term cost shock, maintained normal monetary policy, and did not significantly raise the interest rate center [24][26]

高成长产业债自推出以来，正稳步发展为交易所债券市场服务实体经济的有力融资渠道之一。截至2025 年12月31日，市场累计迎来70家发行人，成功发行112单债券，募集资金规模达683.48亿元，广泛覆盖 化工、机械、电气设备、消费、建筑、交通运输等国民经济关键领域。在市场规模稳步扩大的同时，市 场建设的重心也同步向提升质量的方向迈进，"以信披促交易，提振投资者信心，构建良好生态"的发展 路径正日益清晰。 以及时有效的信息披露传递发行人信用价值 高成长产业债定位于服务主业清晰、偿债意愿良好、信用记录稳健且财务信息真实可靠的产业企业融 资。其产品愿景之一，即通过提高信息透明度，打通投融双方，增强市场信心，促进产业债券市场发 展。 记者注意到，高成长产业债发行人普遍在募集说明书中设置了强化信息披露的相关条款。一家发行人在 接受记者采访时表示，"合规是第一位的，底线是没有财务造假。作为公开市场债券发行人，信息披露 既是公司的义务，也是向投资者展示公司信用的重要途径。增加自愿披露内容体现了公司积极做好信息 披露的态度"。 从满足合规要求到主动传递信用信息，高成长产业债发行人正逐步践行"信用即价值"。"发行人通过及 时披露 ...