每经记者｜张宏 张怀水 张蕊 周逸斐 石雨昕 每经编辑｜陈星 从篇幅分布看，"加大保障和改善民生力度，扎实推进全体人民共同富裕"篇幅较长。稳步扩大免费教育范围，探索延长义务教育年限等举措被写入规划建 议。 不仅如此，"民生"也多次出现在其他部分，如加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出等。 为更好地理解"十五五"规划建议，记者从中挑选出与经济社会发展紧密相关的18个新提法，并就此采访了多位专家。 "十五五"规划建议提出，前瞻布局未来产业，探索多元技术路线、典型应用场景、可行商业模式、市场监管规则，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚 变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。 NBD：为何提出推动量子科技等产业成为新的经济增长点？这会对相关行业带来哪些影响？ 赛智产业研究院院长赵刚：这些都是前沿性战略性技术，当前，这些技术的基础理论研究已经取得较大进展，实用技术研发初步或接近实现"从0到1"的突 破。"十五五"时期将是这些前沿技术研发成果产业化的关键时期，一旦具备商业化应用条件，将大幅提升生产力水平，带动未来信息、未来材料、未来能 源、未来健康、具身智能、未来网络等未来产 ...

Market Overview - On October 23, the A-share market rebounded with all three major indices closing in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22% to 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.22% to 13025.45 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.09% to 3062.16 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.64 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2][3]. Sector Performance - The Shenzhen local stocks led the market, with the coal sector experiencing a collective surge. Lithium mining concept stocks strengthened in the afternoon, and quantum technology concepts showed active performance towards the end of the trading day. Conversely, the engineering machinery sector weakened. The sectors with the highest gains included Shenzhen state-owned enterprise reform, coal, and energy metals, while sectors with the largest declines included cultivated diamonds, engineering machinery, and oil and gas [2]. International Market - The New York stock market saw all three major indices rise on October 23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 144.20 points (0.31%) to 46734.61 points, the S&P 500 rose by 39.04 points (0.58%) to 6738.44 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 201.40 points (0.89%) to 22941.80 points. European markets also experienced gains, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 63.57 points (0.67%) to 9578.57 points, the French CAC 40 increasing by 18.91 points (0.23%) to 8225.78 points, and the German DAX rising by 56.66 points (0.23%) to 24207.79 points [3]. Oil Prices - International oil prices rose on October 23. The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $3.29 (5.62%) to $61.79 per barrel, while the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose by $3.40 (5.43%) to $65.99 per barrel [4]. Economic Policies and Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold a press conference on October 24 to introduce and interpret the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [6]. - The Fourth Plenary Session approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" for national economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive deepening of reforms [6]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to discuss the "15th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, focusing on enhancing core functions and competitiveness [6]. Automotive Industry Insights - As of October 22, the number of applications for the 2025 vehicle trade-in subsidy exceeded 10 million, with over 340,000 vehicles scrapped and more than 660,000 vehicles replaced. The policy has significantly promoted green transformation, with 57.2% of the trade-in vehicles being new energy vehicles [8]. - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference highlighted the automotive industry's shift towards intelligentization, with a focus on policies, technology advancements, and international cooperation [8]. E-commerce and Retail Trends - The e-commerce sector in China showed resilience, with a 6.4% increase in cross-border e-commerce import and export volume from January to September 2025. The retail sales of imported goods grew by 8.3% during the same period [10]. - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.971 billion yuan, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 7.27% year-on-year [10]. Logistics and Delivery Sector - In September, the postal industry achieved a business income of 152.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The express delivery business income reached 127.37 billion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-on-year [11].

Market Overview and Sector Characteristics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.22%, with the median individual stock change being a decline of 0.25% [1] - A total of 58 stocks hit the daily limit up, an increase of 2 from the previous day, while 8 stocks hit the limit down, an increase of 3 [2] Sector Performance - The coal industry, cultural media, and specialized equipment sectors had the highest number of limit-up stocks today [3] - In the coal industry, 8 stocks reached the limit up due to strong performance driven by tight supply and demand conditions [4] - The cultural media sector saw 4 stocks limit up, supported by favorable policies and a recovery in consumer demand [4] - The specialized equipment sector also benefited from policy support and growing export demand [4] Conceptual Characteristics - The most notable concepts among limit-up stocks included Shenzhen local stocks, coal, and large consumer concepts [5] - Shenzhen local stocks had 12 limit-up stocks, benefiting from favorable policies and increased funding focus [5] - The coal sector had 8 limit-up stocks, with expectations of recovering demand and tightening supply [5] - Large consumer stocks also saw significant interest due to policy support and demand recovery [5] Limit-Up Stock List - 25 stocks reached a near one-year high among limit-up stocks, indicating significant breakout trends [6] - Notable stocks include Yunkang Energy, Shandong Molong, and Shenzhen Energy, among others [6][7] Main Capital Inflows - The top 5 stocks with the highest net inflows of main capital included China Nuclear Engineering, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Keda Technology [8] - The stocks with the highest net inflow as a percentage of market capitalization included Jianfa Zhixin and Xinbo Shares, indicating strong capital interest [8] Limit-Up Stock Funding - The top 5 stocks with the highest funding for limit-up included Zhujiang Piano and Yingxin Development, suggesting strong market interest [9] - A total of 49 stocks made their first limit-up today, with 3 stocks achieving a second consecutive limit-up [9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower on October 23, with significant declines observed after initial rebounds, leading to notable drops by midday [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.08 points, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of approximately 456.5 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87% to 12883.89 points, with a volume of about 590.7 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Shenzhen state-owned enterprise reform concept stocks opened strongly, while low P/E and dividend stocks showed early gains; sectors such as coal, oil, and banking experienced significant increases [1] - Conversely, the engineering machinery and cultivated diamond sectors, which had seen gains in previous sessions, underwent notable corrections, and the tech-focused sectors like CPO concept and semiconductors also faced substantial adjustments [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities highlighted a new action plan from the Shanghai government aimed at promoting high-quality development in the construction industry, which is expected to alleviate growth bottlenecks and optimize the industrial ecosystem [2] - CITIC Construction Investment noted that the humanoid robot sector has retraced its September gains, suggesting that current adjustments may present buying opportunities, especially ahead of Tesla's Q3 report and shareholder meeting [2] Energy Sector Data - The National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in September reached 888.6 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with the first and second industries showing growth rates of 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively [3] M&A Development Plans - Shenzhen's financial management bureau released an action plan for promoting high-quality M&A and restructuring from 2025 to 2027, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, AI, and renewable energy [4] - The plan encourages leading companies to engage in M&A activities that enhance supply chain capabilities and technological advancements, particularly in future industries like synthetic biology and quantum information [4]

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Metal Valuation and Market Trends - Basic metal valuations show attractiveness, with nickel currently offering the best value as its price is below marginal costs and its inflation-adjusted 5-year and 8-year averages, despite a relatively weak supply-demand outlook [3] - Aluminum, palladium, and both thermal and metallurgical coal prices are close to marginal costs, indicating solid price support and a more balanced market outlook [3] - In contrast, copper prices appear expensive, significantly above marginal costs and long-term adjusted averages [3] - Precious metals, led by gold, are significantly overvalued, with rising risk aversion pushing gold prices to new highs and driving silver prices up as well [3] - Platinum benefits from improved fundamentals, while palladium's industrial characteristics limit its price increase [3] Group 2: Company Comparisons and Valuations - Zijin Gold International's implied enterprise value/reserve ratio is $782 million per million ounces, which is a 26% discount to the average of large gold mining companies ($1,057 million) and a 31% discount to medium-sized companies ($1,128 million) [4][5] - The company plans to raise $320 million, which represents 15% of its total equity, and has a net debt of $430 million for 2024, leading to an estimated enterprise value of approximately $2.18 billion [4] Group 3: Acquisition Challenges - Glencore faces three major obstacles if it intends to restart a potential acquisition of Teck Resources: it must offer a bid higher than Anglo American's current proposal, reassess its coal strategy to alleviate shareholder concerns, and consider relocating its headquarters to Vancouver to align with Canadian policymakers [6] Group 4: Production Outlook - Fresnillo's silver production is projected to peak at 54 million ounces in 2024 but may decline below 50 million ounces by 2027 due to the nearing end of mine life for certain deposits [9] - Positive exploration results in the Juanicipio area may improve lead and zinc grades, but declining silver grades could offset byproduct revenues, leading to an overall production decline [9] Group 5: Steel Market Dynamics - Nucor and CMC are expected to continue raising rebar prices despite stable scrap costs, driven by supply-demand imbalances in the U.S. East Coast market [11] - The increase in prices may be limited by moderate downstream demand and a lack of price increases in the West during the summer [11] - The absence of new import orders due to a 50% tariff has further constrained supply, supporting rebar prices through the construction peak season [11]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/10/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.47 | 0.00 | DR007 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | स्ट | GC001 | 1.16 | -6.00 | GC007 | 1.45 | -1.00 | | TD | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.77 | 2.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.02 | 1.80 | | 与 | | | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1890亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1. ...

Market Overview and Sector Characteristics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, with nearly 3,900 stocks increasing in value, and the median stock price change was an increase of 1.07% [1][3] - A total of 76 stocks hit the daily limit up, an increase of 39 from the previous day, while only 2 stocks hit the limit down, a decrease of 20 [3] - The leading sectors for limit-up stocks included specialized equipment, coal, and chemical products, indicating a shift in market focus from technology to traditional energy sectors [4][5] Sector and Concept Analysis - The coal sector saw 12 stocks limit up, driven by seasonal demand and tight supply pushing prices higher [5] - The natural gas sector had 7 stocks limit up, influenced by winter heating demand and low inventory levels [6] - The consumer sector had 6 stocks limit up, supported by policy boosts and holiday economic activity [6] Notable Stocks - Three stocks reached historical highs: Hengsheng Energy (30.03 CNY), Sanlian Forging (25.97 CNY), and Fashilong (59.74 CNY) [7] - 26 stocks reached near one-year highs, including Sanfu Co., YD Holdings, and Daya Energy, indicating significant upward momentum [8] Main Capital Inflows - The top five stocks by net capital inflow included Innovation Medical (5.45 million CNY), Qingshan Paper (4.32 million CNY), and Cambridge Technology (4.23 million CNY) [9] - The top five stocks by net capital inflow as a percentage of market value included Tengda Technology (8.37%), Feiwo Technology (7.07%), and Huifeng Diamond (6.12%) [10] Limit-Up Stock Characteristics - The stocks with the highest limit-up capital included Pioneer Electronics (4.29 million CNY) and Chaoxun Communication (2.99 million CNY) [11] - There were 66 first-time limit-up stocks today, with 5 stocks achieving two consecutive limit-ups and another 5 stocks achieving three or more consecutive limit-ups, indicating strong market interest [12]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

Core Viewpoint - On September 3, securities firms issued "buy" ratings for nearly 150 A-share listed companies, focusing on industries such as liquor, home appliances, chemical raw materials, food and beverage, coal, and education [1] Group 1: Top Recommended Stocks - Wuliangye (000858) received 14 research reports from various securities firms, making it the most recommended stock on September 3, with a report highlighting stable revenue growth and a dual-channel strategy [2][3] - Midea Group (000333) was the second most recommended stock, with 12 reports emphasizing strong performance and ongoing innovation, projecting EPS of 6.09, 6.86, and 7.73 for 2025-2027 [2][3] - Hualu Hengsheng (600426) ranked third with 9 reports, noting significant improvement in Q2 performance and the gradual rollout of new projects [2][4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The liquor industry, represented by Wuliangye, is seeing a recovery in channel confidence and a commitment to maintaining pricing strategies, which is expected to enhance brand value [3] - The home appliance sector, led by Midea Group, is characterized by strong growth resilience and low valuation, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3] - The food and beverage industry, including companies like Jinzai Food and Anjuke Food, is also under the spotlight, with expectations for demand recovery and profitability improvements [4]

Core Viewpoint - On September 3, securities firms issued "buy" ratings for nearly 150 A-share listed companies, focusing on industries such as liquor, home appliances, chemical raw materials, food and beverage, coal, and education [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Reports - Wuliangye (000858) received significant attention from brokers, with 14 reports in the past month, ranking first among stocks recommended by brokers on September 3 [2][3] - Midea Group (000333) was also highly regarded, with 12 reports in the past month, placing it second on the broker recommendation list [3] - Hualu Hensheng (600426) ranked third, receiving 9 reports from various brokers in the last month [4] Group 2: Earnings Projections - Wuliangye's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected to be 8.29, 8.65, and 9.13 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 14 times [3] - Midea Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected to be 6.09, 6.86, and 7.73 yuan, with PE ratios of 12.5, 11.1, and 9.9 times based on the closing price of 76.16 yuan on September 2 [3] - Hualu Hensheng's report highlighted significant improvement in Q2 performance and the gradual rollout of new projects, indicating potential for further earnings growth [4] Group 3: Industry Focus - The industries attracting broker attention include liquor, home appliances, chemical raw materials, food and beverage, coal, and education, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [1] - The reports suggest a focus on companies with strong growth potential and resilience in their respective sectors, such as Midea Group's innovation and Wuliangye's brand value recovery [3][4]