下游 AI 供应链与上游电子布材料更新 20250824 摘要 AI 算力需求激增，微软和谷歌等公司的数据显示算力需求高速增长，推 动 AI 投资逻辑完善。四大云厂商预计在 2026 年资本开支达 4,700 亿美 元，全球总资本开支预计 2027 年达 1 万亿美元，同比增速约 30%，欧 洲和中东主权 AI 投资亦显著。 英伟达 ASIC 需求强劲，预计 2026 年出货量达 100 万片，2027 年达 140-150 万片。若英伟达 2026 年营收达 3,000 亿美元，净利润率 55%，则净利润达 1,650 亿美元，对应市值目标约 5 万亿美元。博通等 ASIC 厂商亦受益，预计收入 800 多亿，净利润 400 多亿，对应市值目 标约 1.6 万亿。 AI PCB 市场需求旺盛，预计 2026 年达 700 亿人民币，供给约 600 多 亿人民币，市场紧缺。单 GPU 的 PCB 价值量在 200-350 美元之间。 ASIC 芯片数量增加带动 PCB 需求增长，交换机端口升级至 1.6T，价值 提升约 9 倍。 正交背板技术是 AI PCB 市场未来发展重点，采用马九树脂材料、Q 布 和五代 ...

【一周一议】 首先，2 家电子布和铜箔龙头陆续发布中报，报表端超预期主要体现在，首先 AI 已经在贡献利润，第二原主业环比继 续改善，第三作为龙头、坚定对 AI 方向投入，市场份额角度非常积极、较难给后进者机会。例如，（1）中材科技 AI 电子布例如 lowdk 一代、二代、Q 布、low-cte 布的出货量提高，以及主业风电叶片 Q2 量价齐升，预计 Q3 继续环比 改善。（2）铜冠铜箔 hvlp 系列产品批量出货，以及锂电池铜箔明显减亏，毛利率修复，3 个特征在 2 家龙头公司中均 体现的非常明显。市场关注度向液冷、电源、发电机等环节扩散，但电子布和铜箔仍是景气度高强方向，预计单位价 值量增值角度领先，铜箔和电子布会持续保持 AI 产业链主线品种地位。 第二，继续看好非洲建材及建材出海第一股、产销本土化龙头【科达制造】，半年度预告高增验证非洲建材高景气。从 创造税收、拉动就业、丰富产业链各个角度看，非洲更需要打造本土制造，保护本地薄弱的供应链体系，因此相对外 贸，产销一体化、本土化的企业更受当地认可，同步出海非洲和南美洲的还包括部分水泥龙头。 第三，关注国内外量子计算进展。2025 年 4 月微观纪元引入 ...

再 Call 特种电子布：近期增量总结 20250817 摘要 国产算力需求增长推动特种电子布需求，头部企业月出货量达 5-10 万 米，国内需求占比过半，高端手机、服务器等领域对国产芯片和算力需 求增加，带来新的增量市场。 Low CTE 第一热膨胀产品价格上涨 10%-15%，由红河及部分头部企业 引领。市场共识认为二代低阶电是过渡性产品，一代 d 接电产品出货稳 定，未来国产算力需求将持续增长。 CCL 行业提价，铜箔、玻璃纤维布和树脂等核心原料价格持续高位，梅 州威力邦提价 5 元，建涛提价 10 元，预计三季度玻纤布等相关产品价 格将进一步提升。 电子布和玻纤行业库存较低，供应商结构调整导致部分产能紧缺，普通 电子布价格下降，但对特种电子布影响不大，二代布没有大幅扩产能， 更多关注后续 CTE 及 q 布的发展趋势。 三季度市场预期集中在量与价格上，国产算力提升了对 q 布、CTE 等产 品的需求预期，CCL 涨价可能会反馈到上游原材料，并形成循环效应， 新产能放量可能会晚一些，但国产算力加快节奏，与上游厂商合作也有 望推动放量。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）特种电子布产业趋势有哪些变化？ 今年（2 ...

Group 1 - The index has reached a new high as expected, with technology and non-bank sectors being the core drivers. The index broke through to a new high since 924, with communication, electronics, and non-bank sectors rising by 7.7%, 7.0%, and 6.5% respectively, indicating continued optimism for these sectors [1][12][14] - The market trend is healthy, and there is a strong upward confidence from domestic capital, making a firm hold on investments a suitable strategy [2][13] - The technology sector is viewed as a certain mainline, with a particular focus on the domestic AI industry chain, which is expected to strengthen its relative advantages [3][14] Group 2 - Within the AI-related sectors, there is a strong outlook for computing power-related areas, including liquid cooling, electronic cloth, and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). The domestic companies are expected to see breakthroughs and opportunities for domestic substitution [4][15] - The domestic AI chip core companies have seen a 33% increase, indicating that the market's allocation towards domestic computing power is just beginning [4][15] - Robotics is highlighted as an important application area for AI, with a focus on new components and application scenarios [4][15][16] Group 3 - The integration of AI and unmanned technologies is anticipated to be a major method of warfare in the future, with increasing market attention [5][16] - AI applications are becoming widespread across various life sectors, with the release of new domestic models expected to act as a catalyst for growth in the AI application sector [5][16]

Non-Banking Financial Sector - The average net investment return rate of six major listed insurance groups (China Life, Ping An, Taikang, Xinhua, PICC, and Taiping) decreased from 4.7% in 2020 to 3.6% in 2024, raising concerns about interest spread risk in a low-interest-rate environment [2][7] - Under pressure testing, the net asset decline for Taikang and China Life was 7% and 13.6% respectively when interest rates fell by 50 basis points, indicating that the risk is manageable [8][9] - The cost of new policies has effectively decreased, with the cost of liabilities for major companies like China Life and Taikang dropping approximately 50 basis points to 2.4-2.5% in 2024 [9][10] - The cost of existing policies may reach a turning point, with companies like Xinhua increasing equity ratios to hedge against interest rate declines [10][11] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The latest pig price is 13.72 RMB/kg, with a slight decrease in average weight to 127.8 kg, indicating a short-term decline possibly due to policy-driven weight reduction [12][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes high-quality development in the pig industry, focusing on reducing breeding stock and controlling new capacity [12][13] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with leading companies likely to increase market share [14][15] Machinery and Building Materials - The new Tibet Railway project marks the beginning of a significant engineering era, with expectations that cement companies in Xinjiang will benefit [22][23] - AI is driving increased demand for high-end electronic fabrics, with Low-CTE materials being particularly undervalued in the current market [23][24] - The report suggests a long-term growth potential for high-end electronic fabrics, recommending companies like Honghe Technology and Zhongcai Technology for investment [23][25] New Consumption - Huayi Group is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.661 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.36% year-on-year, despite external macroeconomic challenges [26][27] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 RMB per 10 shares, indicating strong dividend intentions [26][27] - The growth in orders is driven by the development of the sports industry and increased demand from strong brand orders [27][28] Transportation - Zhongyuan Expressway reported a revenue of approximately 3.105 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%, despite a decline in toll revenue in Q2 [30][31] - The company is optimizing its debt structure, which has significantly improved its expense ratio [31][32] - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers is expanding its fleet, with 27 new vessels expected to be delivered by 2026, supporting performance growth [34][35]

Summary of Conference Call on Zhongcai Technology and the Electronic Fabric Industry Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on Zhongcai Technology and the electronic fabric industry, particularly the demand for low dielectric constant (low DK) and low coefficient of thermal expansion (low CTE) materials [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Order Growth and Market Dynamics** - NOCT orders have exceeded expectations, driving growth in the electronic fabric sector alongside increased demand for high-performance materials and orthogonal backplanes [2][3]. - The orthogonal backplane corresponds to a PCB market space of approximately $8 billion, with electronic fabric contributing 8%-9% of its value [2][7]. 2. **Market Projections for Low DK and Low CTE Materials** - Low DK electronic fabric demand is projected to grow from 90 million meters in 2025 to 230 million meters by 2027, with a significant compound annual growth rate [2][8]. - Low CTE fiber fabric is crucial for reducing chip deformation, especially in high-heat environments, with demand driven by companies like Huawei adopting advanced packaging techniques [2][11]. 3. **Supply Chain and Production Capacity** - Zhongcai Technology plans to reach an annual production capacity of 35 million meters by the end of 2026, while Honghe Technology aims for 20 million meters [4][17]. - The global supply landscape shows that overseas companies hold 50% of the market, with Zhongcai being the largest supplier at 20% [4][23]. 4. **Technological Advancements and Production Challenges** - The introduction of COROP technology has significantly increased the application space for low CTE materials [3]. - Production of low CTE materials faces high barriers, including drawing and surface treatment processes, leading to a relatively tight supply [12][16]. 5. **Future Market Potential** - The low CTE market is expected to reach a scale of 30 billion RMB by 2027, with domestic companies likely to capture a significant share of the profits [15]. - The market for low DK materials could expand to 20 billion RMB by 2027, driven by high-end product demand [9]. 6. **Competitive Landscape** - Zhongcai and Honghe are well-positioned to meet market uncertainties due to their comprehensive product structures [4][22]. - The competition is expected to intensify as companies like Feilihua and Linzhou Guangyuan also expand their production capacities [19][30]. Other Important Insights - The demand for low CTE materials is not only driven by AI applications but also by advanced packaging technologies used in high-end devices like Apple's M series chips [11]. - The electronic fabric industry is currently in a tight balance, with supply gaps expected to persist into 2025 despite rapid capacity expansions [23]. - The transition from traditional to advanced packaging techniques is anticipated to enhance the usage of low CTE materials significantly [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and competitive dynamics within the electronic fabric industry, particularly focusing on low DK and low CTE materials.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly due to capacity release and an optimized product mix, with a projected revenue of 835 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.24% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 22.80 million yuan, an increase of 8,589.54% compared to the previous year, driven by changes in product structure [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from long-term opportunities in high-end markets such as 5G and AI, with a focus on high-margin products [6][8]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 23.54 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20.7 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 880 million shares, with an asset-liability ratio of 42.2% [3]. - The largest shareholder is Yuan Yi International Limited [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.041 billion yuan, 1.191 billion yuan, and 1.307 billion yuan, respectively [9]. - The expected net profit for these years is 130.65 million yuan, 175.35 million yuan, and 225.06 million yuan, indicating substantial growth [9]. - The company anticipates a gross margin of 17.37% in 2024, an increase of 8.54 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of producing ultra-thin electronic-grade glass fiber cloth, enhancing its competitive edge [5]. - The focus on R&D and cost control is expected to strengthen the company's high-end technology barriers [5]. - The company aims to expand its market share in the mid-to-high-end electronic cloth sector, responding to the growing demand from the PCB industry [6].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **copper foil** and **electronic fabric** industries, highlighting the impact of AI computing infrastructure and consumer electronics demand on the copper foil market [1][4]. Key Points on Copper Foil Market - The demand for **high-volume low-pressure (HVLP)** copper foil is driven by the need for high-speed signal transmission in AI servers and 5G/6G communications, with a projected global demand of **50,000 to 60,000 tons** by **2026** [1][6]. - The processing cost for the fourth generation of HVLP copper foil is approximately **200,000 RMB per ton**, which is three times that of the second generation, indicating a tight supply and high technical barriers in the high-end copper foil market [1][6]. - Domestic manufacturers currently hold a low market share in the high-end HVLP copper foil sector, with Japanese and Taiwanese companies dominating. However, the slow expansion of Japanese manufacturers presents opportunities for domestic firms [1][7]. - Companies like **Tongguan** and **Defu** are positioned to benefit from domestic substitution opportunities, with Defu having acquired technology through a Luxembourg company and supplying major clients like Amazon and Meta [1][8][9]. Financial Projections - The company aims to capture **30% market share** in the RTF and HVLP markets, with an expected profit contribution of **800 million to 1 billion RMB** corresponding to a **20% market share** by **2026** [2][10]. - **Tongguan** anticipates a doubling of RTF shipments to **10,000 tons** and HVLP shipments to **4,000 tons** in **2025**, with over **50%** of its clients being Taiwanese enterprises [10]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end HVLP copper foil market is currently led by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers, with domestic companies like **Defu** and **Longyang** working to enhance their market presence [7][9]. - Longyang is focusing on fifth-generation products and has received validation from several copper-clad laminate manufacturers, with plans for production to begin in **Q4 2025** [10]. Electronic Fabric Market Insights - The electronic fabric sector is represented by companies like **Zhongcai Technology** and **Feilihua**, which are advancing in special glass fiber materials. Zhongcai expects a significant increase in its special fiber material production by the end of **2026** [11][17]. - The market for **quartz fabric** is anticipated to grow, driven by the increasing demand for high-end materials in AI and mobile chip applications, with significant potential for profit margins exceeding those of previous generations of materials [14][15]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The second-generation electronic fabric production faces challenges such as high waste generation and low yield rates, but improvements in technology and production processes are expected to enhance yield in the coming years [16]. - The demand for low-expansion sand is projected to grow significantly, with TSMC's production capacity expected to increase substantially, indicating a robust market outlook for related materials [15]. Conclusion - The copper foil and electronic fabric industries are poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand from AI and telecommunications sectors. Domestic manufacturers are strategically positioned to capitalize on market opportunities, despite facing competition from established foreign players.

Group 1: Market Overview - The total scale of stock ETFs reached approximately 3 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, with a market value share of 3.7%, marking a historical high [9] - Active equity public funds saw a decline in market value share from a peak of 6.2% in 2021 to 3.0% in Q2 2025 [9] - Significant increases in ETF shares were noted in sectors such as banking, liquor, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robotics, military industry, gold, and rare earths [9] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The RWA (Real World Asset) market has seen rapid growth, with on-chain asset scale reaching 25.52 billion USD by July 16, 2025, and 310,573 asset holders [11][12] - The global market for consumer-grade 3D printers is projected to reach 7.1 billion USD by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% [14] - The Low Dk electronic cloth market is expected to have an annual average market space of around 10 billion yuan by 2028, driven by the demand for high-speed transmission [19] Group 3: Sector Analysis - In Q2 2025, active equity public funds increased their holdings in sectors such as telecommunications, media, agriculture, military, and finance, while reducing exposure to automotive, food and beverage, social services, electric equipment, and steel [9] - The electronic industry maintained a high holding of 18.8%, with semiconductors comprising half of this proportion, indicating a crowded sector [10] - The pharmaceutical sector showed significant internal structural differentiation, with chemical pharmaceuticals receiving substantial increases in holdings, while other areas like medical outsourcing and hospitals saw reductions [12] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - The company Jin Tian Titanium Industry (688750) is positioned as a leader in high-end titanium alloy technology, with a focus on aerospace and marine applications [20][22] - The company Jieput (688025) reported an earnings forecast that exceeded expectations, indicating a growing demand in consumer-grade applications [21][22] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 8.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 1.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.04% [20]

Industry Overview - Since the beginning of 2024, the PCB industry has seen a recovery in overall market conditions due to easing inventory pressures and improved demand from downstream sectors such as consumer electronics and AI servers [2] - The growth in high-end segments like HDI, high-speed high-frequency, and packaging substrates has been particularly strong, driving demand for upstream high-performance electronic fabrics [2] Company Insights - Zhongcai Technology (002080.SZ) has reported that the first generation of low dielectric electronic fabrics is currently in short supply [4] - The company has long focused on the high-end electronic fabric sector and has successfully broken the international monopoly in this field [5]