Core Insights - The report indicates that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is more focused on "structural adjustment," suggesting a potential for a structural market trend in the upcoming year [4][6][26] - Historical patterns show that years emphasizing "stabilizing growth" typically lead to stronger market performance, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap and value stocks over growth stocks [2][10] - Conversely, years focused on "structural adjustment" tend to exhibit market volatility, with large-cap stocks remaining flat while small-cap stocks weaken [2][10] Summary by Sections Historical Performance Post-Central Economic Work Conference - The report categorizes past conferences into two themes: "stabilizing growth" and "structural adjustment," with specific years identified for each theme [1][2] - Years with a "stabilizing growth" focus include 2014, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024, characterized by economic slowdowns and policies aimed at maintaining stability [1][2] - Years emphasizing "structural adjustment" include 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2023, where the focus was on addressing structural issues and risks [2] Market Behavior and Style Preferences - In "stabilizing growth" years, the market index typically strengthens, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks and value stocks outperforming growth stocks [2][10] - In "structural adjustment" years, the market tends to be more volatile, with large-cap stocks showing flat performance and small-cap stocks declining [2][10] Industry Performance Insights - The report notes that the focus of the Central Economic Work Conference influences the following year's market trends, with specific industry policies guiding investment directions [3][4] - For instance, the emphasis on "innovation-driven" policies in 2012 led to a TMT boom in 2013, while the focus on "new consumption" and "new infrastructure" in 2018 shaped market trends in 2019 [3] 2025 Conference Insights - The 2025 conference highlights a "supply strong, demand weak" scenario, indicating a need to balance supply and demand dynamics [4][6] - The report suggests that monetary policy will prioritize economic stability and reasonable price recovery, which could lead to improved corporate profitability if inflation expectations rise [6] - Expanding domestic demand is a key focus, with policies aimed at increasing consumer income and stabilizing investment to counteract previous declines in fixed asset investment growth [6] Market Outlook and Sector Allocation - The report anticipates a structural market trend in 2025, with specific sectors recommended for investment, including AI applications, semiconductor, and renewable energy sectors [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy developments to inform investment strategies in the upcoming year [7]

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。会议还对下半年持续扩大内需、因地制宜发展新质生产力、纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、持续防 范化解重点领域风险等方面的重点工作作出部署。 信号一：实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 国家统计局数据显示，前三季度我国GDP实现101.5万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。分季度 看，一季度同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%，增速相比前两季 ...

Core Insights - The focus of national development is shifting from "quantitative recovery" post-pandemic to "qualitative leap" in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "high-level technological self-reliance" and aims for a dual goal of "effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" [5][11] Group 1: Economic and Industrial Strategy - The national strategy is entering a new cycle centered on innovation efficiency, industrial structure, and regional collaboration, marking a shift from "policy following" to "system co-creation" [4] - The plan aims to build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, focusing on future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy [11] - The transition from "incremental manufacturing" to "efficiency manufacturing" indicates a shift in focus from merely increasing production to optimizing resource allocation [12] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Hard technology investment, including semiconductors and advanced materials, is positioned as a foundational logic for "systematic breakthroughs" [10] - Investment institutions are encouraged to engage in pre-financing and result transformation for national technology tasks, fostering capital co-creation [10] - The emphasis on "entrepreneurial investment + risk-sharing mechanisms" presents opportunities for investment firms to participate in national innovation initiatives [10] Group 3: Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" elevates green development from a secondary goal to a structural institution, influencing all industrial allocations [17] - The integration of green issues into financial and market mechanisms signifies a shift in perspective, making green development a capital issue [17] - Sustainable investment opportunities in green infrastructure and carbon asset management are expected to grow [20] Group 4: Consumer and Market Dynamics - The plan positions consumption upgrade as a core driver of economic structural transformation, moving from recovery to quality enhancement [22] - The "silver economy" is recognized as a significant industrial opportunity, transforming aging issues into growth engines [22][25] - Investment opportunities in healthcare, elder care, and technology-assisted living are anticipated to rise due to demographic shifts [25] Group 5: Regional Development - The focus of regional policy is shifting from "development gradient" to "structural coordination," promoting a unified market and efficient resource allocation [27] - Investment institutions are encouraged to collaborate with local guiding funds to strengthen project foundations and facilitate new industry development in less developed regions [30] Group 6: Financial Market Reforms - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes structural improvements in capital markets, transitioning from a focus on financing to a comprehensive investment-funding-exit cycle [32] - Direct investment institutions are identified as key players in building a strong financial nation, with multiple exit pathways being developed [35] - The plan aims to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, promoting direct financing methods [31] Strategic Summary - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new engines for China's economic growth, including technological innovation and green transformation, while establishing a more inclusive capital market system [36] - Investment institutions are encouraged to align their strategies with national planning, leveraging professional judgment to identify promising sectors and companies for investment [36]

图为位于江苏省如皋市城北街道的如皋经济技术开发区氢能产业园。吴树建摄（人民视觉） 图为位于重庆市的七腾机器人有限公司展厅内，工作人员在介绍防爆四足机器人产品。新华社记者 王 全超摄 未来产业是中国"三新"（新产业、新业态、新商业模式）经济的重要一环。去年，中国"三新"经济增加 值占GDP比重已超过18%。"十五五"规划建议提出"前瞻布局未来产业"，"推动量子科技、生物制造、 在安徽省合肥市举办的2025量子科技和产业大会量子科技成果展上，观众正参观超导量子计算机。程兆 摄（人民视觉） 氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点"。 布局"未来产业"，"十五五"规划建议为什么"点名"量子科技、生物制造等6项产业？如何挖掘中国未来 产业的应用价值？ "新"—— 从科幻走进生活 一个"新"字，是许多人评价这6大未来产业的高频词：新颖、新鲜、新奇。 氢能来自氢氧反应释放的化学能，反应产物唯有水而已——"车后没有噪音和尾气，车前没有氮氧化合 物的刺鼻气味。'静''净'两字都占了。"在"家门口"体验过氢能大巴车，北京市朝阳区居民刘女士赞不绝 口。 具身智能让AI拥有物理载体，实现感知、觉醒、行 ...

Core Insights - The "Understanding China" International Conference is being held for the 12th year, focusing on the theme of "New Layout, New Development, New Choices - Chinese-style Modernization and the New Global Governance Pattern" [1] - The conference aims to discuss the significance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and its implications for global governance, emphasizing China's role in providing new opportunities for developing countries [2][3] Group 1: Conference Themes and Objectives - The conference introduces two new topics: understanding the 14th Five-Year Plan and the four global initiatives, including the Global Governance Initiative [2] - The 14th Five-Year Plan is seen as a departure from the notion that modernization equals Westernization, offering new choices for developing countries [2][6] - The conference serves as a platform for global South countries to learn from China's modernization experience and to promote the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind [3][7] Group 2: International Cooperation and China's Role - Former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi highlights China's increasing importance in international cooperation, contrasting it with the past U.S.-led initiatives [2] - The conference emphasizes the need for collaboration among nations, particularly in the context of global challenges [2][4] - The participation of representatives from 72 countries, with a significant portion from the global South, indicates the growing influence of the conference [3] Group 3: Economic Strategies and Development Plans - The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on domestic demand and international cooperation as core components of China's modernization strategy [3][6] - The plan aims to integrate economic growth with global cooperation, emphasizing shared opportunities and mutual development [6][7] - The plan includes innovative strategies for technology and industry, aiming to establish new economic growth points [8][9] Group 4: Regional Development and Innovation - The conference discusses the development experiences of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan Free Trade Port, highlighting their roles in China's modernization [12][13] - The Greater Bay Area is viewed as a vibrant region with significant potential for economic development and innovation [12] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enhance international trade and cooperation, marking a new phase of China's high-level opening up [13]

10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》） 正式发布。 与"十四五"规划建议相比，"十五五"规划建议将"建设现代化产业体系"摆在更加突出的位置，这背后有 何考量？遴选量子科技、生物制造等六大产业的底层逻辑是什么？新兴产业和未来产业未来10年新增规 模相当于再造一个中国高技术产业，意味着什么？人工智能（AI）出现8次，反映出怎样的导向？带着 这些关乎经济发展全局的关键问题，近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访了第十四届 全国政协委 员、中国社科院经济研究所原所长黄群慧。 黄群慧深耕产业经济领域多年，身兼国家制造强国建设战略咨询委员会委员，国务院反垄断委员会专家 咨询组成员等职，并连续担任"十四五""十五五"国家发展规划专家委员会委员，对中国产业发展的底层 逻辑与现实路径有着深刻洞察。 在采访中，他强调指出，在推动人工智能技术发展同时，不容忽视其就业替代与收入极化效应，技术创 新的社会影响必须纳入考量范围。 谈建设现代化产业体系：置于首位具有三大意义 NBD：与"十四五"规划建议相比，"十五五"规划建议把"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根 基" ...

Group 1: Modern Industrial System Development - Shaanxi has focused on building a modern industrial system as a strategic initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to revitalization of traditional industries and rapid growth of emerging industries [1] - The province has implemented a plan for industrial structure adjustment in the Guanzhong area, promoting the transformation and upgrading of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises [1] - Strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing have seen annual value-added growth rates of 8.7% and 10.3% respectively during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with new energy vehicle production growing at an annual rate of 112% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Modernization - The implementation of the rural industrial integration development demonstration park three-year action plan has resulted in the establishment of 9 national and 65 provincial demonstration parks, with a target of 3.356 billion yuan in central investment for 2025 [2] - In 2024, the total grain production is expected to reach 13.5229 million tons, with a historical high yield of 297.35 kg per mu [2] Group 3: Service Industry Development - By 2024, the service sector's value added is projected to reach 1.84 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.8% of the province's GDP, achieving the 14th Five-Year Plan target ahead of schedule [2] - The combined revenue of scientific research, technical services, and information technology services accounted for 51.3% of the profitable service industry in the first three quarters of this year [2] Group 4: Infrastructure Enhancement - The construction of the China-Europe Railway Express (Xi'an) has seen an increase in annual operations from 3,720 trains in 2020 to 4,985 in 2024, with an average annual growth of 34% [2] - The railway operating mileage has reached 6,030 kilometers, while the total road mileage has reached 190,000 kilometers, and urban rail transit operating mileage has reached 403 kilometers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, reflecting a strategic shift in China's economic development focus, particularly in response to current domestic and international challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The prioritization of "building a modern industrial system" signifies a shift towards strengthening the real economy, which is essential for sustainable growth and resilience against external shocks [4][7]. - The plan aims to transform traditional industries, which currently account for about 80% of the economy, into new growth drivers, potentially creating a market worth trillions [4][8]. - The integration of technological innovation with industrial development is crucial, as it ensures that breakthroughs in technology can be effectively applied within the industrial framework [3][8]. Group 2: Future Industries - The plan outlines six key future industries: quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation mobile communications, chosen for their potential to drive economic growth and strategic importance [11][19]. - These industries are expected to contribute significantly to China's high-tech sector, with the goal of achieving a "doubling" of high-tech industries over the next decade [18][19]. - The selection of these industries considers their original innovation potential, market prospects, and alignment with national security needs [11][19]. Group 3: Policy and Investment Strategies - The government is advised to adopt a differentiated approach to funding and policy support for traditional, strategic emerging, and future industries, ensuring that resources are allocated effectively without neglecting any sector [9][10]. - The establishment of a guiding fund for future industries is recommended to attract private investment while managing risks associated with high uncertainty in these sectors [22][23]. - The focus on nurturing "unicorn" and "gazelle" companies is essential for fostering innovation and ensuring a dynamic ecosystem that supports both large enterprises and startups [24][23]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Social Impact - The plan highlights the importance of integrating social considerations into technological innovation, particularly regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and income distribution [31][37]. - A balanced approach is necessary to ensure that technological advancements do not exacerbate social inequalities, aligning with the broader goals of shared prosperity and sustainable development [37][38]. - The governance of artificial intelligence must evolve through interdisciplinary collaboration to address its societal implications effectively [38].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of future industries driven by cutting-edge technologies, which are in the early stages of development and have significant strategic, leading, disruptive, and uncertain characteristics [1]. Government Initiatives - The Chinese government has issued multiple guiding documents to promote the development of future industries, focusing on six key areas: future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health [2]. - The 2024 and 2025 State Council work reports highlight the need to cultivate emerging and future industries, including quantum technology and life sciences, and to establish growth mechanisms for future industry investments [2]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the exploration of diverse technology routes and typical application scenarios to drive new economic growth points in various future industries [2]. Industry Developments Quantum Technology - Quantum technology integrates principles of quantum mechanics with various scientific fields, aiming to revolutionize information processing and transmission [5]. - Significant advancements include the development of the "Zuchongzhi III" superconducting quantum computing prototype, which set new global records in quantum computing capabilities [6]. - By 2025, China is expected to lead in quantum computing, transitioning from "catching up" to "leading" in the field [7]. Biomanufacturing - Biomanufacturing utilizes biological processes for material processing and conversion, with applications in pharmaceuticals, new materials, and renewable energy [8]. - China has become the largest exporter of key enzyme preparations and gene components, holding a 29% share of the global market [9]. - The industry is characterized by the integration of AI in research and production, accelerating innovation and improving production efficiency [10]. Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion Energy - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a crucial component of global energy transition, with China being the largest hydrogen producer [11]. - Major projects include the world's largest green hydrogen base and advancements in nuclear fusion technology, with significant milestones achieved in plasma control and fusion energy development [12][13]. Brain-Computer Interfaces - Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) are emerging as transformative technologies, with successful trials and clinical applications in various fields [14][15]. - The development of both invasive and non-invasive BCIs is progressing rapidly, with applications in medical rehabilitation and research [18]. Embodied Intelligence - The embodied intelligence sector is witnessing rapid growth, particularly in robotics, with advancements in AI and sensor technologies [19][20]. - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for humanoid robots transitioning from prototypes to mass production, with applications in various industries [21]. Sixth Generation Mobile Communication - The sixth generation (6G) mobile communication technology is expected to enhance performance metrics significantly compared to 5G, with various breakthroughs achieved in key technologies [22][23]. - Standardization efforts for 6G are underway in China, with commercial deployment anticipated around 2030 [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of achieving a moderate level of development for China by 2035, with a focus on enhancing GDP and fostering emerging industries to adapt to global economic changes [2][5][14]. Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The target is to exceed the threshold of $20,000 in per capita GDP by 2020 standards and to double the per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels [2]. - Achieving a moderate level of development is seen as crucial for China's economic strategy moving forward [2]. Group 2: Emerging Industries - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to develop new pillar industries such as renewable energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [5]. - There is a call for a focus on key areas like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication to drive future industrial growth [6]. Group 3: Regional Innovation Systems - The establishment of regional innovation systems is essential, involving collaboration among government, enterprises, universities, and research institutions to enhance innovation capabilities [9]. - A tailored approach based on local resources and industrial foundations is recommended to prevent market bubbles and ensure sustainable development [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment in physical assets (infrastructure, buildings, machinery) is crucial for solidifying the material and technical foundation for economic development [10]. - Investment in human capital (education, healthcare, skills training) is equally important for enhancing the capabilities and potential of the population [10]. Group 5: Digital Trade - Digital trade, characterized by data as a key production factor and digital services, is rapidly growing and is identified as a new trend in international trade and economic growth [12]. Group 6: Energy Strategy - Building an energy powerhouse is highlighted as a significant goal, with energy security being critical for national stability and development [13][14]. - The transition to green and low-carbon energy sources is emphasized as a timely and necessary step in the current global context [14].