投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/8/28 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/8/26 | 2025/8/27 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 496. 1 | 479.7 | -16. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:原油未能收复周二的跌幅,PX装置可能检修的传 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1264.8 | 1338.0 | 73. 18 | 闻被否定,PTA现货供应充足,PTA行情下跌,现货基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3508 | 1. 3838 | 0. 0330 | 差走弱。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 864 | 854 | -10 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 272 | 254 | -18 | | | | P ...

8月27日，瓶片现货加工费247元/吨附近，PR2511盘面加工费360元/吨。 【供需方面】 【现货方面】 8月27日，内盘方面，上游聚酯原料期货日内回落下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳，局部下调30元附近。 日内聚酯瓶片市场成交气氛偏淡。8-10月订单多成交在5860-6000元/吨出厂不等，略低5840元/吨出厂附 近，少量略高6030-6100元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异。出口方面，聚酯瓶片工厂出口报价多 稳，个别小幅下调。华东主流瓶片工厂商谈区间至785-805美元/吨FOB上海港不等，局部略高或略低， 品牌不同略有差异；华南商谈区间至775-790美元/吨FOB主港不等，局部略高或略低，整体视量商谈优 惠。 【成本方面】 8月仍为软饮料消费旺季，且三房巷（600370）、华润、逸盛和万凯等大厂瓶片装置维持减产，随着瓶 片减产时间延长，减产效果显现，库存缓慢去化，使得加工费下方存有支撑，但成本端短期走强，压制 加工费绝对价格仍跟随成本端波动，需关注瓶片装置的减产是否进一步增加以及下游跟进情况。策略 上，PR单边同PTA；PR主力盘面加工费预计在350-500元/吨区间波动。 免责声明：本报告中的信 ...

氯碱产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年8月28日 खन्ध Z0017002 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 8月27日 | 8月26日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2718.8 | 2687.5 | 31.3 | 1.2% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2700.0 | 2700.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4710.0 | 4760.0 | -50.0 | -1.1% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2548.0 | 2533.0 | 15.0 | 0.6% | | | SH2601 | 2699.0 | 2703.0 | -4.0 | -0.1% | | | SH基美 | 170.8 | 154.5 | 16.3 | 10.5% | 元/吨 | | SH2509-2601 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Soda ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical products market is generally weak, with different products showing various supply - demand and price trends. Some products have supply - demand improvement expectations in the short - term, while others face long - term supply pressure [2][3][5][6][7] - For most products, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as device status, oil price trends, policy changes, and seasonal demand [3][5][6][7] Summary by Product Category Pure Benzene - Petrochemical products are weak, the unified benzene futures price has declined, and Sinopec has lowered the listed price. Although the port inventory has been decreasing, domestic demand is weak, resulting in a weak supply - demand balance. The BZ - NAP spread has slightly weakened, and the basis has declined [2] - There are expectations of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and seasonal demand recovery, but imports still pose pressure on the market, and the supply - demand situation may be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Polyester - The PX price dropped during the day, causing the PTA price to weaken. Terminal weaving is improving, demand is rising, and with no new PX installations planned for this year, the supply - demand outlook is improving, which is expected to drive up the industry chain. However, the market has already factored in these expectations, and stronger drivers are needed for the PX price to continue rising [3] - Ethylene glycol is fluctuating around 4,500 yuan/ton. Domestic production has increased, and terminal demand has improved, leading to simultaneous growth in supply and demand. A significant decrease in arrivals has boosted the market in the short - term. Whether it can continue to rise in the medium - term depends on policies and the pace of peak - season demand recovery [3] - The short - fiber supply - demand is stable. The price dropped with the cost during the day, and the short - term margin and spot processing margin weakened, but the futures processing margin rebounded. With limited new production capacity this year, the expected increase in peak - season demand will boost the short - fiber industry. If demand improvement materializes in the medium - term, a long - position configuration is advisable [3] - The bottle - chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure. Recently, the raw material price has rebounded, causing the bottle - chip processing margin to further decline and the basis to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of petrochemical industry policies [3] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly during the day, and the port inventory increased substantially within the cycle. Currently, the operating rate of coastal olefin plants is low, and the arrival of imported methanol remains high. Although some coastal supplies are flowing back to the inland, the affected areas and the total amount of back - flowing supplies are limited. With the end of autumn maintenance and the outflow of Xinjiang supplies, inland methanol supply is increasing, the marginal demand for external procurement by olefin plants is weakening, the average operating rate of traditional downstream industries is declining, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory rapidly, and the current situation remains weak. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and the possibility of restarting coastal MTO plants [5] - The urea futures price is fluctuating at a low level, and the spot price has slightly decreased. The enthusiasm for port collection in the industry has increased, and the port inventory has increased within the cycle, but the market sentiment is cautious. Supply remains high, demand is weakening seasonally, and production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. As the subsequent state reserve purchase approaches, it is expected that the purchases will be scattered, and it is unlikely that a concentrated purchase will drive up the urea price. The supply - demand pressure has become a trend, and attention should be paid to changes in export - related news that may affect market sentiment [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price dropped during the day. Although PVC itself is operating at a loss, the caustic soda market is performing well, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, so the cost support is not obvious. Qingdao Gulf has plans for new production, and supply pressure remains. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, domestic demand is weak, and external demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has been increasing since July. The low valuation and weak reality are in a tug - of - war, and the futures price may fluctuate within a range [6] - The caustic soda price has dropped from a high level. The rigid demand from the alumina industry provides strong support, and the recent operating rates of non - aluminum industries such as pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing have slightly increased, with restocking demand providing support, and the inventory has been continuously decreasing. After the continuous increase in the spot price, non - aluminum downstream industries have recently shown resistance to the price. The profit is good, and there is still supply pressure in the future. The current price is not very cost - effective, and the room for further price increase is limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash price is fluctuating weakly during the day. Anhui Hongsifang has resumed operation, and Wucai Alkali Industry has stopped for maintenance and is expected to resume on the 29th. The supply is fluctuating slightly at a high level. The inventory decreased on Monday, but the inventory at all levels of the industry chain is high, and the weak reality persists. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have improved recently, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash has slightly increased. In the long - term, the soda ash supply will remain under high pressure, facing a supply - demand surplus situation. It is advisable to short at high - level rebounds, but caution is needed at low - valuation levels [7] - The glass price is fluctuating. The decline in the spot price has narrowed, and the price has increased slightly in some areas. Due to the military parade in September, the operation of deep - processing plants in the Shahe area has been affected, and glass factories continue to accumulate inventory. Recently, the production capacity has changed little, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month - on - month but are still weak year - on - year. The current situation is weak, but at the current low - valuation level, attention should be paid to whether there will be restocking demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". It is expected that the downward range of the futures price is limited, and a long - position strategy near the cost can be considered [7]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心下挫，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 | | | | 63.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.39%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.58 美元 | | | | 至 67.22 美元/桶，跌幅 2.3%。SC2510 以 486.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.9 元/桶，跌幅 2.19%。由于美国计划自周三起对印度商品加征 | | | | 的关税提高一倍至 50%，预计印度国有和私营炼油厂将减少近期 | | | | 对于俄罗斯石油的采购。当地时间 25 日，美国国土安全部发布的 | | | | 50%关税的计 一份草案通知，概述了美国政府将对印度产品征收 | | | | 划。通知称，加征的关税将适用于"自 2025 年 8 月 27 日美国东 | | | 原油 | 部夏令时间 0 时起，报关提货或从仓库提货的印度商品"。10 月， | 震荡 | | | 印度从俄罗斯进口的石油数量将较第一季度的平均 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月27日 | | | | 上游价格 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 涨跌幅 | 8月26日 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 8月25日 | 单位 | Ж跌 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月26日 | 8月25日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -2.3% | 布伦特原油(10月) | 67.22 | POY150/48价格 | 68.80 | -1.58 | 6845 | 0.6% | 6885 | 40 | 美元/桶 | -2.4% | WTI原油(10月) | -1.55 | 7140 | 25 | 0.4% | 63.25 | FDY150/96价格 | 7115 | 64.80 | | | 7 | 0.2% | ਦੇਰੇਤੇ | 1.2% | DTY ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/8/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 493.6 1281.0 | 492.9 1280. 0 | -0. 70 -0. 91 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情微涨,原油行情窄幅震荡,下游聚酯产 销整体平淡,华东160万吨PTA新装置出料,华南另外 | | | | | | | 250万吨装置尚未官宣停车,PTA虽然去库存但并未缺 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3571 | 1. 3574 | 0. 0003 | 货。 | | | CFR中国PX | 857 | 859 | 2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 270 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的推确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方 法，并不代表广发期货或其倾眉机楣机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或均价，投资者局比投资，风险自担 。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布，复制，如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2025年8月25日 张鹏珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 涨跌幅 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月22日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated August 26, 2025 [2] - The energy and chemical options covered include energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyesters (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and others (rubber) [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various underlying futures contracts are presented, such as the SC2510 crude oil contract with a latest price of 499, a price increase of 6, and a price change rate of 1.16% [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, for example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 415 [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Categories Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase supply by 550,000 barrels per day in September, and Russia will cut production. The market shows short - term recovery受阻. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak shock. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [8] - **LPG**: Factory inventory is decreasing slightly but still high, and port inventory is at a high level. The market shows short - term recovery. Implied volatility has dropped to near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies are similar to those for crude oil [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are rising. The market is in a weak trend. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak shock. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a weak and wide - range shock. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: PE and PP inventories have different trends, and the market is in a weak trend. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. Recommended strategies include a long collar strategy [11] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Tire production has different trends. The market is in a short - term weak trend. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak trend. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination [12] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Social inventory is decreasing, and the market shows a recovery. Implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak shock. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination [13] Other Options - **Caustic Soda**: Production capacity utilization is decreasing, and the market shows a recovery. Implied volatility is high, and the open interest PCR indicates strong long - side power. Recommended strategies include a long collar strategy [14] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level, and the market is in a shock. Implied volatility is high, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination and a long collar strategy [14] - **Urea**: Inventory is rising, and the market is in a low - level shock. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side power. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [15] Group 7: Option Charts - Charts of price trends, trading volumes, open interests, open interest PCR, implied volatility, etc. for various option varieties such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. are provided [17][36][57]

能源化工日报 2025-08-26 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/26 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.97 美元，涨幅 1.52%，报 64.74 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.95 美元，涨幅 1.40%，报 68.74 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.40 元，跌幅 0.29%， 报 485.6 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.43 百万桶至 209.84 百万桶，环比去 库 0.21%；汽油商业库存去库 1.51 百万桶至 88.63 百万桶，环比去库 1.68%；柴油商业库存 累库 0.59 百万桶至 105.18 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；总成品油商业库存去库 0.92 百万桶至 193.81 百万桶，环比去库 0.47%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，但当前价格已不宜追多， 基 ...