1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating between geopolitical games and fundamental support. Tightness at the mine end and deteriorating smelting profits provide bottom support, but macro uncertainties limit the upside. The unexpected reduction of domestic social inventories shows the resilience of domestic demand. It is recommended to maintain an interval operation strategy next week, with the main Shanghai copper contract focusing on the operating range of 91,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and mainly conduct buy hedging on dips. Spot enterprises are advised to purchase as needed, avoid chasing high prices, and lock in forward supplies when the import window opens [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 31, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 96,100 yuan/ton and closed at 95,340 yuan/ton, a -0.44% change from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 95,730 yuan/ton and closed at 96,760 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 oscillated in a narrow range between 95,310 - 95,890 yuan/ton and closed at 95,440 yuan/ton. The monthly spread and import profit and loss were both in a small range. The purchasing and selling sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper weakened slightly. In the morning, the quotes of suppliers were differentiated, with different discounts for flat - water copper, high - grade copper, and non - registered copper. In the afternoon, the quotes were further lowered due to weak inquiries. The supply of wet - process copper was limited. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot will recover stage by stage today. Purchasing at the beginning of the month and pre - holiday stocking will boost inquiry and transactions, supporting the convergence of discounts. However, abundant inventory and sufficient supply will still limit the repair range. The narrow brand spread also reflects the consumption - dominated market pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical situation: The US and Iran have released signals of easing. The US is seeking an agreement to end the war, and Iran is willing to end the war on the premise that its demands are met, but currently, no formal negotiation has started [3]. - Mine end: The CSPT decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RCs) in the second quarter of 2026. Codelco and Anglo American have obtained approval from the Chilean antitrust regulatory agency to jointly operate the Andina and Los Bronces copper mines. The joint plan is expected to increase the annual output of copper concentrate by 120,000 tons from 2030 to 2051, with a cumulative additional release of 2.7 million tons of copper and an expected additional pre - tax value of at least $5 billion [4]. - Smelting and import: The Canadian federal government and Quebec are taking action to save the Horne Smelter. The Quebec government has proposed legislative amendments to give Glencore more time to meet stricter emission targets, and the federal government is considering Glencore's request for about C$150 million in environmental upgrade financial support [5]. - Consumption: Terminal consumption shows the characteristic of "domestic demand supporting the domestic inventory reduction process well". The actual consumption demand dominates the market, and social inventory is accelerating the reduction. The social inventory in Shanghai is 275,800 tons, a decrease of 45,300 tons from last Thursday. The inventory in Guangdong has also decreased significantly, and the spot has returned to a premium state. The spot market in Shandong is weak, and the consumption in North China has cooled down. Next week, the Shanghai copper spot market will continue the supply - demand game. The supply side has the expectation of a large number of non - registered copper arriving at the port, and the demand side's purchasing rhythm depends on copper prices [6][7]. - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 175 tons to 362,425 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warrants decreased by 9,710 tons to 221,261 tons. On March 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 403,100 tons, a decrease of 24,300 tons compared with the previous week [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2026, the weight of macro factors (Fed policy, geopolitics) will be significantly higher than the supply - demand fundamentals. The strong rebound of the US dollar index will suppress copper prices. [8] - The supply - demand mismatch has shifted from "overall tightness" to "structural differentiation". The mine supply remains tight, but the smelting output is lower than expected due to raw material shortages and by - product crises. The demand side shows the characteristics of "severe switching between old and new kinetic energy", with traditional real estate and home appliances under pressure, while new energy and power grid investment are the only bright spots, but they are difficult to fully hedge the shadow of macro - recession. [8] - The volatility will be significantly amplified. Under the resonance of geopolitical black swans and macro grey rhinos, market sentiment is prone to extremism. It is recommended that industrial customers use derivatives such as options to strengthen risk management, and investors should be vigilant against the stampede risk caused by sudden changes in liquidity. [8] - Q2 2026 is not the end of the copper bull market but a sharp "squat" in the middle of the bull market. This adjustment will squeeze out the previous bubble valuation and lay a foundation for the real uptrend in the second half of the year and 2027. In the short term, it is recommended to try long on dips, strictly set stop - profit and stop - loss, and control positions. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions to control risks. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, combined with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand. [3][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q2 Outlook - In Q2 2026, copper prices will show a significant "N" - shaped oscillation pattern with increased wide - range fluctuations. If the Middle East war expands, the global economy may fall into recession; if the situation eases, the commodity and stock markets may recover. [7] - The current deep correction of copper prices is the resonance of macro - headwinds and high - inventory weak reality. In the long - term, due to the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, the strategic security premium of copper in the Sino - US game will dominate, and copper prices will stabilize and oscillate in a new equilibrium range. [7] 3.2 Q1 2026 Market Review - The Q1 2026 copper market showed a roller - coaster trend divided into three stages: the first stage (January - February) was the "开门红 and expectation pre - run", with copper prices hitting historical highs and then falling back; the second stage (February - March) was the "high - level oscillation and increasing divergence", with copper prices in a narrow - range consolidation; the third stage (March - present) was the "geopolitical explosion and decline after reaching a high", with copper prices plummeting due to geopolitical events and high inventory. [10][11] - The core characteristics of the Q1 2026 market were "strong expectation, weak reality, and high volatility", exposing the fragility of market funds. [11] 3.3 Macro Analysis 3.3.1 Global Economic and Geopolitical Changes, Middle East War, and Energy Crisis - The Middle East war has led to an energy crisis, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If the war expands and prolongs, a global economic and financial crisis may break out in 2026. The global economic and trade growth expectations in 2026 will be significantly revised down. [15][16] - The high energy price has pushed up inflation, increased smelting and transportation costs, and suppressed demand. It has also disrupted the supply chain of copper, leading to a decline in global risk preference and a fall in copper prices. [19] - If the Taiwan Strait risk breaks out in 2026, copper prices may first fall and then rise due to supply security concerns and the explosion of military copper demand. [23] 3.3.2 Trump's Copper Tariff Ruled Illegal, but Tariff War 2.0 May Continue - Trump's previous copper tariffs were ruled illegal, but he may use the 301 investigation and other measures to start a new round of trade frictions. His policy has accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased the uncertainty of the market. [24][26] - The US may impose selective tariffs on refined copper imports from some countries and build a global metal trading group to weaken China's influence in the mineral market, which may lead to China's counter - measures. [26] 3.3.3 The Myth of Copper Consumption in AI Data Centers Burst, and Geopolitical Changes Suppress the Technology Bubble - The claim that AI data centers need a large amount of copper was exaggerated. Although AI development depends on copper, the actual copper consumption in new fields is difficult to shake the traditional fields for now. [34] - The Middle East conflict has increased the operating cost of data centers, threatened the stability of chip production, and damaged the physical security of AI infrastructure, exposing the vulnerability of the AI industry's supply chain. [35][36] 3.3.4 The Fed's Hawkish Stance and the Shift of Global Monetary Policy Expectations - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have decreased significantly in 2026 and 2027. The Fed is more focused on combating inflation. The high - interest - rate environment has a negative impact on the real economy and suppresses copper demand. [39] - The Fed's hawkish stance has forced other central banks to follow suit, which has weakened the global copper demand. [47] 3.3.5 The Disappointment of the "Two Sessions" Policy Expectations and the Increase of External Pressure - The actual implementation of policies after the "Two Sessions" in 2026 did not meet market expectations, and the external environment has deteriorated, making it difficult for domestic copper demand to recover. [49] - Trump's postponement of the visit to China has reignited market concerns about the "Tariff War 2.0". The government may take flexible measures to support copper demand in Q2. [50] 3.4 Supply Analysis 3.4.1 Intensified Global Competition for Copper Resources, Chinese Copper Enterprises' Overseas M&A Failure - Due to geopolitical risks and other factors, the long - term capital expenditure of global copper mines is insufficient, and the new supply is limited. The global leading copper mines are still dominated by European and American giants. [51][52] - Global copper mining giants are accelerating mergers, and some mining companies have lowered their 2026 copper production plans, increasing market concerns about supply shortages. [53] - The US plans to start a strategic key mineral reserve project and build a key mineral supply chain excluding China, which will affect the global copper supply pattern. [54] 3.4.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees, Industry Calls for Copper Concentrate Storage and Anti - Involution - The copper concentrate processing fees have reached a record low, and the smelting profit is under pressure. Some smelters have increased the purchase of blister copper, but the supply of blister copper is limited. [60][61] - The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper production capacity by more than 10% in 2026, and the industry association will promote copper resource reserve construction. [63] 3.4.3 Slowing Growth of Refined Copper Supply, Reverse Restriction of African Sulfur Shortage on Wet - Process Copper Capacity - Affected by raw material shortages and smelting maintenance, the growth of refined copper supply has slowed down. The shortage of sulfur in the Middle East has led to the reduction of African wet - process copper production. [67][68] - China's imports of unforged copper and copper products have decreased, and the domestic scrap copper market is affected by various factors. The overall supply of refined copper in 2026 is expected to grow at a slower pace. [69][70] 3.4.4 High Global Visible Inventory, the Tug - of - War between High Inventory and High Price - The copper market shows a paradox of high inventory and high price. The high - interest - rate policy has led to passive inventory accumulation, while some financial capital has hoarded copper as an anti - inflation asset. [74][75] - Although the current inventory is high, the market expects the inventory to decline rapidly after Q3 due to mine disruptions and smelting production cuts, which supports the near - term copper prices. [75] 3.5 Demand Analysis 3.5.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers Electricity Demand, and "Token" Electricity Exports Provide a New Path - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, has increased the demand for electricity, which in turn drives the demand for copper. The power industry is the most important area for copper consumption. [79][80] - Overseas power market development and China's power exports will further increase the global copper demand in the power sector. China may explore the path of "RMB internationalization with electricity as the anchor". [81][83] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the domestic power industry in 2026 will increase by 6.78% year - on - year to 788 million tons, accounting for 47% of the total copper consumption. [87] 3.5.2 The Real Estate Market is at the Bottom, and the "Shanghai Seven Measures" Boost Confidence - The real estate market is still in a difficult situation, with over - inventory and weak demand. The "Shanghai Seven Measures" have boosted the confidence of the Shanghai real estate market, but the overall national real estate market needs more policy support. [90] - It is predicted that the copper consumption in the construction industry in 2026 will decline by 11.59% year - on - year to 2.9 million tons, accounting for 17% of the total copper consumption. [92] 3.5.3 Short - Term Pressure on Home Appliance Consumption, Long - Term Optimism - In the short term, the home appliance industry is under pressure, but in the long term, it is expected to recover with the improvement of the real estate market and the introduction of consumption - promotion policies. [95][99] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the home appliance industry in 2026 will be 2.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.42%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption. [99] 3.5.4 A Setback for New - Energy Vehicles, but the Energy Crisis Stimulates Electric Vehicle Consumption - In Q1 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in an adjustment period, but the export performance was excellent. The energy crisis has increased the cost of fuel vehicles, making electric vehicles more competitive. [100][101] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the transportation industry in 2026 will be 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.07%, accounting for 14% of the total copper consumption. [101] 3.5.5 Considerable Growth in Industrial Machinery and Electronics, the Robot Industry Shines - The robot industry has a high demand for copper, and although its current contribution to global copper demand is small, it has great growth potential. [105][106] - It is expected that the copper consumption in the machinery and electronics industry in 2026 will be 1.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, accounting for 8% of the total copper consumption. [107] 3.5.6 Cooling Speculative Enthusiasm, the Energy and Chemical Sector Siphons Funds from the Non - Ferrous Sector - Due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the "off - season in the peak season" of downstream demand, the speculative enthusiasm in the copper market has decreased. The energy and chemical sector has siphoned funds from the non - ferrous sector. [110] 3.5.7 Forecast of the 2026 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, the global refined copper market is in a tight balance. The global refined copper supply is expected to be 28.65 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.53%, and the demand is expected to be 29 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.22%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 350,000 tons. [114] - In China, the total supply of refined copper is expected to be 16.35 million tons, and the total demand is expected to be 16.6 million tons, with a supply - demand gap of 250,000 tons. [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The global geopolitical situation, especially the conflict in the Middle East, has a significant impact on the commodity market. Supply disruptions and cost increases are common themes across various industries [7][8][118]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be strong due to supply shortages or cost - driven factors, while others may face downward pressure or be in a state of shock [11][13][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Aluminum**: Concerns about supply disruptions are high. Middle - East aluminum plants have been affected, and if production cuts expand, prices may rise. However, there are also risks from macro - negative pricing [8]. - **Copper**: The strong US dollar restricts price rebounds. There are geopolitical and industry - specific factors such as attacks in the Middle East and production changes in different countries [23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly, with price and trading volume showing positive trends [26]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [29]. - **Tin**: It shows a stable and upward trend. Market sentiment is affected by supply concerns from Indonesia, and fundamentals are strong with high premiums and inventory depletion [11]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation is slowing, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is rising due to support from the ore end [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [45]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the easing of geopolitical tensions, and silver has fallen from the shock platform [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to supply disruptions, and oil - related products are affected by cost support and supply - demand changes [12][83]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run strongly, with supply disturbances from geopolitical factors and inventory decline [118][119]. - **Urea**: The price center is moving up, with a neutral - to - strong domestic fundamental pattern [123]. - **Benzene and Related Products**: Benzene is in a strong shock state, with supply shortages and increased downstream demand [126]. - **LPG and Propylene**: There are geopolitical risks and supply disturbances, and the trend is strong [136][137]. - **PVC**: The driving force is upward, with long - term support from supply disturbances and cost increases [146]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounds, and it may be strong in the short term [148]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It is in a high - level shock operation due to continuous oil - price disturbances [176]. - **Soybean Products**: Soybean meal may be in a weak shock, and soybean is in a state of adjustment shock due to factors such as the US EPA's renewable fuel policy and expected changes in planting areas [182][184]. - **Corn**: It is running in a shock state [185]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong shock state, with changes in domestic and international production and consumption [189][190]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces [193]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [197]. - **Hogs**: The weight - reduction is less than expected, and the price center will move down again [200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil - mill acquisitions [204]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping market is affected by the situation in the Middle East. The near - month contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a narrow - range shock, and the far - month contract fluctuates with geopolitical factors [150][161][162]. - **Paper**: The market for offset printing paper is in a wait - and - see state [166].

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's investment strategy, emphasizing cash management and the concept of "市赚率" (Market Earnings Rate) as a key metric for evaluating stock investments [4][6]. - The author highlights the importance of position management, stating that even in a bull market, maintaining a cash position of around 30% is crucial for flexibility [4][7]. - The author references Warren Buffett's investment strategies, particularly his approach to position sizing based on confidence levels in stocks, with maximum allocations of 40% for the most favored stocks [5][6]. Group 2 - The article outlines Buffett's selling strategy, which involves selling overvalued stocks while retaining undervalued ones, using historical examples to illustrate this approach [6][8]. - The author notes that in a bull market, the selling threshold can be relaxed to a 60% margin, while in a bear market, the buying threshold should be more conservative, ideally at 40% to 50% [8]. - The author expresses cautious optimism for a slow bull market under low interest rates but emphasizes the need to maintain a cash reserve to mitigate risks [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a hawkish shift in the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and other central banks may suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrate is expected to be tight and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper is continuously decreasing, the prices of Shanghai copper may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being [3]. - For the price of Shanghai copper, pay attention to the support levels around 89,000 - 92,000 and the pressure levels around 98,000 - 100,000; for LME copper, pay attention to the support levels around 11,000 - 11,500 and the pressure levels around 12,500 - 13,600; for COMEX copper, pay attention to the support levels around 4.9 - 5.2 and the pressure levels around 5.5 - 5.8/6.2 [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread**: - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread is positive/negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors hold the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai copper cautiously or take profits at high levels [10]. - The spread of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts is negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is flat at the 50% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spread of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [13]. - The spread between COMEX copper near - and far - month contracts is negative and basically within a reasonable range; the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range; the spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper is negative and at a relatively low level; the spread between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is negative and at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to whether the Trump administration will impose a 15% tariff on imported copper in 2027 and increase it to 30% in 2028 [14]. - The closing prices of Shanghai (COMEX) copper near - and far - month contracts show a Contango structure [18]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area decreased compared with last week; the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange increased compared with last week; the inventory of COMEX copper decreased compared with last week; the total domestic and foreign inventory of electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week [3][22][25]. - The non - commercial long (short) positions decreased (decreased), and the commercial long (short) positions decreased (decreased), resulting in a decrease in the ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper [25]. 3.2 Upstream and Midstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: - The production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad is disturbed, resulting in a continuous negative import index of copper concentrate in China, which leads to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrate. The port inventory of copper concentrate in China decreased compared with last week [3][30]. - Due to the flood disaster at the Palabora Copper Mine in South Africa and the accident at the Kennecott Copper Mine in the United States, the domestic production (import) volume of copper concentrate in March may increase (increase) month - on - month, and the import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and decreased compared with last week [32]. - **Scrap Copper**: - The scrap copper ticket points in Guangdong and other regions remained flat compared with last week. The shortage of raw material supply, the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the increase in the social total inventory coefficient of scrap copper in Guangdong, Ningbo, and Shandong. However, the domestic scrap copper production in March may increase month - on - month [33][35]. - The export quota of scrap copper in Ukraine in 2026 is set to zero, and the European "Critical Raw Materials Act" restricts scrap copper exports. Although the scrap copper import window is open, the domestic scrap copper import volume in March may increase month - on - month, but it is difficult to change the tight supply expectation [38]. - **Crude Copper and Anode Plate**: - The weekly processing fees of crude copper in northern (southern) China decreased (decreased) month - on - month. The smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in March may increase month - on - month, and the domestic crude copper production (import) volume in March may increase (decrease) month - on - month [39]. - The processing fee of anode plates in China decreased compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate of waste - produced anode plates decreased compared with last week [44]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) plans to reduce the capacity utilization rate of mineral copper by more than 10% in 2026. Multiple copper projects are expected to increase production, and the domestic production (import) volume of electrolytic copper in March may increase (increase) month - on - month [45]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: - The daily processing fees of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China increased compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rates of refined (recycled) copper rods increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper products enterprises in March increased (increased, increased, increased) month - on - month [50][52]. - The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared with last week [54][57]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in March may increase month - on - month [64][66][72]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper enameled wire increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in March may increase month - on - month [68][70][72]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: - The weekly processing fees of Chinese brass plate and strip increased, and the processing fees of lithium - ion (THE and RTF) copper foil increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper plate and strip increased (increased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper plate and strip enterprises increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip (foil) in March may increase month - on - month [73][74][78][80]. - **Copper Tube and Brass Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tube and brass rod samples increased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises increased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube (brass rod) in March may increase month - on - month [81][84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices dropped significantly. As of March 20, it closed at 94,740 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5.68%. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran increased global inflation expectations. The Fed suspended interest rate cuts, and Powell's remarks strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the shortage at the mine end persisted, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remained at a historical low. In March, production might hit a record high. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders and production increased, and domestic copper inventories started to decline but remained at a high level. Considering inflation concerns, recession risks, and high inventories, copper prices fell from their highs [5]. - On the supply side, the shortage of copper concentrates continued. As of March 20, domestic copper concentrate port inventories were 315,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The spot TC of copper concentrates hit a new historical low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was relatively abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee reached a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper output in February was 1.1424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected that the output in March will further increase [8][27]. - On the demand side, the decline in copper prices led to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry maintained a high operating rate. Last week (March 13 - 19), the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 percentage points. The downstream procurement sentiment improved, and new orders for refined copper rod enterprises increased significantly. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the decline in copper prices, and their operating rates steadily recovered. In February, the operating rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively [8][31]. - In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate. As of March 20, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.15%. As of March 19, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 8.85% compared to March 12, but still 176,700 tons higher than the same period last year. As of March 20, LME copper inventories were 342,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.79%, and COMEX copper inventories were 588,700 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [8][33]. - Strategy suggestion: The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran increases global inflation expectations, and the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts strengthens the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern continues, and refined copper supply maintains year - on - year growth. As the second quarter approaches, the domestic maintenance peak is coming, and supply is still supported. Downstream demand continues to recover, and the decline in copper prices stimulates downstream procurement, accelerating inventory reduction. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season, domestic inventories are likely to continue to decline. Overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The decline in domestic social inventories and the arrival of the copper consumption peak season will support copper prices, and the overall adjustment space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Last week's market review**: Shanghai copper prices dropped significantly. The ongoing war increased inflation expectations, the Fed's stance strengthened the US dollar index, and the shortage at the mine end persisted. In March, production might hit a record high. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders and production increased, and domestic copper inventories started to decline but remained at a high level [5]. - **Supply - demand and inventory analysis**: On the supply side, the shortage of copper concentrates continued, and the spot TC hit a new low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee was high. The electrolytic copper output in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. On the demand side, the decline in copper prices led to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods and the copper foil industry maintained a high operating rate. In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Strategy suggestion**: The war and the Fed's policy suppress copper prices, but the tight supply and recovering demand support copper prices. The decline in domestic social inventories and the arrival of the consumption peak season will limit the downward adjustment space of copper prices [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and discount**: The contango structure appeared in the inter - month spread, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper continued to be under pressure. The decline in copper prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the spot premium first rose and then fell, and then stabilized. The LME copper inventory increased significantly, the LME 0 - 3 discount continued to widen, and the New York - London copper price difference was still negative [16]. - **Domestic and foreign positions**: As of March 20, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, but the open interest decreased. As of March 13, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions increased significantly week - on - week. As of March 17, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased slightly week - on - week [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The shortage of copper concentrates continued, and the spot TC hit a new low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee was high. The electrolytic copper output in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March [27]. - **Downstream operating rate**: In February, the operating rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate was much higher than in previous years. Last week, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises increased significantly, and the downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the decline in copper prices [31]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventories decreased, but the LME inventory increased [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the ongoing conflict in Iran on global commodity markets, emphasizing that prolonged conflict could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and price volatility across various sectors, including energy, metals, and agriculture [2][9]. Energy Sector - Bank of America (BofA) views the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint for oil and refined products, with a potential restoration leading to price declines, while a slow recovery could necessitate higher risk premiums for oil pricing [5][12]. - The report outlines four scenarios for oil prices by 2026, with a base case average of $77.50 per barrel, and extreme scenarios suggesting prices could peak at $240 per barrel if the conflict extends [9][11]. - The report indicates that the refined oil market may experience even more severe impacts than crude oil due to a lack of strategic reserves [11]. Metals Sector - The aluminum market is projected to face significant deficits, with estimates of 1.2 million tons in a quick resolution scenario, escalating to 5 million tons if the conflict extends into the second half of 2026, with prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ton [8][15]. - Copper production may be affected by sulfur supply disruptions, with a baseline deficit of 45,300 tons expected by 2026, which could expand significantly if sulfur supplies are cut off [16]. - Zinc is expected to remain in surplus this year, limiting price increases, while nickel prices are projected to range between $15,000 and $20,000 per ton [8][16]. Agricultural Sector - The report highlights that fertilizer prices, particularly urea, have surged by 30%-40% due to supply chain disruptions, with the Gulf region contributing significantly to global urea exports [21][22]. - Corn is identified as the most vulnerable crop, with U.S. planting area expected to decrease, potentially leading to higher prices above $6 per bushel if nitrogen fertilizer shortages persist [22]. - Wheat is positioned as a hedge against food security, with price forecasts adjusted upward due to the ongoing conflict and its impact on supply chains [22]. Broader Commodity Impacts - The report emphasizes that the conflict's impact is not limited to oil and gas but extends to chemicals and coal, with potential shifts in energy consumption patterns as countries may revert to coal if LNG supplies are constrained [20]. - The agricultural sector is expected to see systemic risks due to concentrated urea supply chains, with significant implications for global food prices and availability [21][22]. - Gold prices are projected to reach $6,000 per ounce under certain scenarios, particularly if high inflation and economic stagnation persist [25][27]. Market Dynamics - BofA notes that the market has not fully priced in several factors, including the volatility of oil and aluminum, suggesting that long-term contracts may reflect the true impact of supply disruptions more accurately [29]. - The report indicates that energy prices could trigger a global recession if they exceed $160 per barrel, leading to significant declines in metal prices [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply and demand showing marginal improvement. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 98,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate is at a historical low, and the processing fee of blister copper has declined month - on - month. The cold material supply has tightened marginally. The Bingham Canyon Mine in the US owned by Rio Tinto suspended operations after an accident, with an annual output of about 125,000 tons in 2025 [11]. - **Demand**: Copper prices have moved down in a volatile manner. In the first half of the week, downstream buyers were active, but sentiment cooled as the market atmosphere weakened. The operating rate of copper processing enterprises continued to rise, approaching the same - period level of previous years. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod production has rebounded from a low level [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons to 1.283 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8,000 tons to 433,000 tons, the LME inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 312,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 537,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in the East China region on Friday was 85 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME Cash/3M discount widened to 102.7 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper has changed from a loss to a small profit, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded. From January to February 2026, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China was 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices have moved down in a volatile manner. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.73% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.04% to 12,735 US dollars/ton [22]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times [24]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price has moved down in a volatile manner, and the basis has rebounded. The spot copper in the East China region on Friday had a premium of 85 yuan/ton over the futures price. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M discount widened to 102.7 US dollars/ton. The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper has changed from a loss to a small profit, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded [27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate has reached a new low, at - 60.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has strengthened, still contributing positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper has increased [38]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import of copper has changed from a loss to a small profit [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons to 1.283 million tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to before the holiday. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory mainly came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased month - on - month. The number of copper warrants decreased by 4,024 to 315,063 tons. The LME inventory increased, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses, and the European inventory decreased. The proportion of cancelled warrants increased slightly [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to rebound significantly in March, being at a relatively high historical level. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative annual output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [55]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore import volume was 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. From January to February 2026, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China was 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. In December 2025, China imported 61,000 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In December 2025, China's refined copper import volume was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 3.828 million tons, with a net import volume of 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In December 2025, China exported 96,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The domestic spot copper feed - processing export remained profitable. In December 2025, China's recycled copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [58][61][64][70][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption structure of electrolytic copper is 46% for power, 15% for home appliances, 11% for transportation, 9% for construction, 9% for mechanical electronics, and 10% for others. In China, it is 26% for construction, 23% for equipment, 12% for industry, 13% for transportation, 17% for infrastructure, and 9% for others [77]. - **PMI**: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiated performance in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was also differentiated, with improvement in Japan, the Eurozone, and India, and weakening in the US and the UK [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In December 2025, the output of cold storage, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment in the copper downstream industries increased year - on - year, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while that of cold storage, color TVs, and AC motors decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December 2025, the domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreasing year - on - year, and the decline rate slowed down. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in December [85]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March, but lower than the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with a significantly better operating situation than the same - period level of last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production continued to rise; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable continued to rise; the operating rate of copper strip rebounded [88][92][95][98][103][106]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed compared to last week, and the refined - scrap price difference on Friday was 475 yuan/ton [111]. 3.6 Capital Side - **Shanghai Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 824 to 1,158,912 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2603 contract was 36,980 lots (bilateral) [116]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of March 10, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio declined to 20.4%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of March 6) [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non-ferrous metals industry is "Oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Core View - The report analyzes the copper market, including price movements, important news, market logic, and provides an investment rating. The current copper market shows a bearish trend due to factors such as supply surplus, dollar strength, and inventory changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2604 in the night session was 100,860 yuan/ton, a 0.44% decrease from the previous night session. The closing price of the second main contract CU2605 was 101,020 yuan/ton, a 0.49% decrease. As of 06:00 on March 13, 2026, the COMEX HGK26E was at 5.821 US dollars per pound (equivalent to 88,229 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.8752), a 1.5% decrease from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 12,948.5 US dollars per ton (equivalent to 89,024 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.8752), a 0.77% decrease [1] Important News - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of copper ore and copper concentrates increased by 4.9% year-on-year [1] - In February 2026, Chile's copper export revenue was 4.7 billion US dollars, a 16.3% year-on-year increase. The copper export volume was 169,600 tons, with 39,000 tons exported to China. The export volume of copper ore and copper concentrates was 1,169,500 tons, with 776,600 tons exported to China [1] - On March 3, 2026, Jiangxi Copper's wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Copper (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd., won court approval for its cash offer to acquire SolGold plc at 28 pence per share [1] Market Logic - In 2025, the global refined copper supply had a surplus of 385,100 tons according to WBMS data and 380,000 tons according to ICSG data [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening of the US dollar will suppress copper prices [1] - Since August 2025, global visible inventories have been rising, doubling to nearly 1 million tons by mid-February, indicating that high copper prices are suppressing copper consumption [1] - The market is worried about the US imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future. LME copper inventories in Europe have decreased from nearly 70,000 tons in April 2025 to 13,600 tons, while COMEX copper inventories have increased from less than 100,000 short tons to around 600,000 short tons [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]

Group 1: Gold and Copper Stocks - Gold stocks collectively declined, with notable drops: Haigold fell 6.03%, Zijin Mining International down 4.85%, Lingbao Gold down 3.27%, and China Gold International down 2.6%. This was attributed to rising oil prices and inflation concerns, alongside a strengthening US dollar, putting pressure on international gold prices [1] - Copper stocks continued their recent downward trend, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 5.24%, Minmetals Resources down 3.93%, Zijin Mining down 2.01%, and China Nonferrous Mining down 2.14%. The London Metal Exchange reported a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 284,325 tons, the highest level in over a year [1] Group 2: Company Earnings and Forecasts - Tianrun Cloud surged over 17% after announcing an expected net profit of approximately 55 to 65 million yuan for 2025, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 60% to 90% [1] - Jin Sangzi saw a midday increase of over 10%, despite forecasting a revenue and profit decline of 20% to 25% for the year ending December 31, 2025, compared to 2024 [2] - Liwen Paper experienced a slight increase of 0.26%, with Citigroup noting that the company's last year's performance exceeded expectations, aligning with its profit forecast of 1.94 billion HKD [2] - Kowloon Warehouse dropped over 4%, reporting a revenue of 12.815 billion HKD for 2025, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, and a shareholder loss of 4.257 billion HKD, reversing from a profit of 889 million HKD in the previous year [3] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - JD Industrial rose over 6% after signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Xingyuan Materials to enhance digital technology platforms and global procurement solutions [3] - Hims & Hers Health surged over 15% in early trading, with a three-day increase of 72%, following a partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell obesity medications [5] - CoreWeave increased by 9.4% after Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment to develop AI data centers, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [6] Group 4: Market Reactions and Trends - The stock of Xibei Cement fell over 4% after a profit forecast of 833 million to 896 million RMB for the year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 33% to 43%, but suggesting lower-than-expected net profits for the second half of the year [4] - Tesla's stock opened nearly 4% higher, reaching a two-week high, as February sales in China showed growth for the fourth consecutive month, exceeding market expectations [8] - Nebius shares surged 16.14% after Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment to support AI data center development, with plans to deploy over 5 GW of Nvidia systems by the end of 2030 [8]