建议关注：山东黄金、山金国际、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金等。 工业金属： 2025 年 10 月 12 日 有色金属 稀土管制升级，避险情绪升温 国庆期间，美国政府停摆、美联储进一步降息预期等因素推动贵金属 （金银）、工业金属（铜锡铝等）价格迎来普涨。近日商务部连发 4 则稀土公告，从"资源管控"转向"技术+供应链双管控";美国特朗普 称将对中国进口商品加征 100%关税，短期宏观政策扰动较大，市场 可能高波震动。我们认为，短期可重点关注稀土的战略属性、黄金的 避险属性，中长期持续关注基本面向好的铜铝锡钴钽等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 3986.2、47.4 美元/盎司,环比分别 +3.6%、+3.0%。10 月 1 日起，美国政府时隔 7 年再度停摆，一方面 部分非农就业、CPI 等数据延迟发布，一方面影响美国政府信用水平。 特朗普再度推出多项关税政策，推升市场避险情绪。政策不确定性等 利多因素有望持续，看好金价续创新高。白银被提议列入美国 USGS 关键矿产清单，伦敦银现货市场供应紧张，周中价格一度创历史新高， 持续看好白银价格弹性。。 zhougy@essence.com.c ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for safe - haven assets is boosted by the potential U.S. government shutdown, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthened. The real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds is declining. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and the "de - dollarization" trend enhances the allocation value of gold. Geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit further support the long - term safe - haven nature of precious metals [3]. - The upward gap of Shanghai copper yesterday was in line with expectations. Whether sentiment or expectation will be dominant in the future may affect copper price fluctuations. From a trend perspective, Shanghai copper has broken through, and in the short - term cycle, it has reached the upper range of fluctuations. Adjustment at high levels is not unexpected, and the same situation applies to LME copper [18]. - Affected by copper and gold prices and macro - policies, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Alumina is still in an oversupply situation, and the prices of domestic and foreign spot alumina are continuously falling. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up effect on Shanghai aluminum and is also expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [37]. - The zinc price was driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous metal sector in the previous trading day. The LME zinc price was stronger during the holiday, and the import profit and loss has reached a low point, with the export window expected to open soon. The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are still weak, with an obvious pattern of strong supply and weak demand [61]. - In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel mines in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease. The purchasing intention in the new energy sector has recovered after the holiday, and the price of nickel iron is limited in its downward space due to cost pressure. The spot trading of stainless steel has improved after the holiday, and the export situation is favorable [77]. - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown during the holiday, the macro - uncertainty has increased. The expectation of interest rate cuts has become the main trading logic in the market again. Coupled with supply - side disturbances in Wa State and Indonesia, Shanghai tin is still considered to be in a strong position [91]. - The previous market expectation of the shutdown of lithium mines in Jiangxi has not been verified. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Xiawo lithium mine and the restocking situation of downstream sectors [107]. - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, more enterprises are expected to cut production, and the price center may move slightly upward, but the overall inventory in the industry will suppress the price increase. For polysilicon, the market trading will focus on the expectations of "platform establishment in October" and "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November", and investors should be cautious due to high volatility [118]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the U.S. dollar index are presented [4][10]. - **Inventory data**: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot price differences, and the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are shown [6][17]. Copper - **Futures data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and LME copper futures are provided. The main contract closing price, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai copper futures are also presented [19][21]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic copper spot prices are given, including those of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, and others. The import profit and loss of copper, the difference between refined and scrap copper prices, and the warehouse receipt data of Shanghai copper are also included [24][33]. Aluminum - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [38][42]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic aluminum spot prices are given, including those of East China, Foshan, and Central China. The import profit and loss of aluminum and alumina, and the inventory data of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are also included [49][55]. Zinc - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [62]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic zinc spot prices are given, including those of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc. The inventory data of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc are also included [70][74]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai nickel [78]. - **Industry data**: The quota policy of nickel mines in Indonesia, the market situation of the new energy sector, the price of nickel iron, and the export situation of stainless steel are presented [77]. Tin - **Futures data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided [91]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic tin spot prices are given, including those of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots and tin concentrates. The inventory data of Shanghai tin and LME tin are also included [98][102]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [108]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given, including those of lithium mica, lithium spodumene concentrate, and others. The inventory data of lithium carbonate are also included [112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices in different regions are provided, as well as the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts [119][120]. - **Industry data**: The production, inventory, and capacity utilization rate data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are presented [132][134]. - **Polysilicon** - **Price data**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and components are presented [125][126]. - **Industry data**: The total inventory of polysilicon in China and the average cost of the polysilicon industry are presented [135][136].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Morning Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals - Report Sector: Non - ferrous metals and precious metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical reasoning, and provides trading strategies for various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Overall, the precious metals market is in an upward trend, while different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and challenges, such as supply shortages, demand fluctuations, and policy impacts [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold broke through the $4000/oz mark, closing up 1.4% at $4040.745/oz; London silver rose 2.36% to $48.88/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.767, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.11% [2]. - **Important Information**: The US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill, the Fed is divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of interest rate cuts is high. Trump announced a peace plan between Israel and Hamas [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Uncertainties such as the US government shutdown, global political turmoil, and China's increase in gold reserves have increased investors' demand for gold as a hedge, pushing up gold prices. Silver prices have also risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on the dips for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; take profit on out - of - the - money call options and collar call options bought before the holiday [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $10701/ton, down 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 139,200 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1947 tons to 335,500 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, QB mine cut copper production guidance, Aurubis raised the price of refined copper, and Australia provided financial support to copper smelters [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Copper mine supply is tight, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - sided trading; hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decreases; wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2868 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a narrow - range decline [10][11]. - **Important Information**: Overseas alumina was traded at different prices, Inalum planned to expand production, and the supply of alumina was estimated to be in surplus in September [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply is in an excess pattern, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina to maintain a weak trend for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20160 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [16]. - **Important Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises extended their holidays [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for raw material inventory in recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the holiday of downstream die - casting enterprises is extended. The spot price is expected to be firm, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the aluminum alloy futures price to open higher and then weaken slightly for single - sided trading; pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage if the futures price opens higher; wait and see for options [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20680 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose 3.22% during the holiday. The spot price increased [20]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and the Fed's internal differences in interest rate cuts. The domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and some enterprises increased production during the holiday [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by interest rate cut expectations and the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the LME aluminum price rose during the holiday. The domestic demand is slowly recovering, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation after the holiday [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing high prices and wait and see for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc price fell 1.53% to $2995/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Kipushi mine increased production, Golden Grove mine postponed high - grade zinc ore mining, and the LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The non - ferrous metal sector was strong during the holiday, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to a two - year low. The domestic market is in surplus, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the SHFE zinc price to be strong in the short term and go short on the high for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [28]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead price fell 0.02% to $2005.5/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME lead inventory was high [30]. - **Important Information**: A lead - zinc mine in Fujian postponed production [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for lead concentrate is large, and the supply is in a tight balance. The primary lead smelter is in a small loss, and the secondary lead smelter may increase production. The consumption season is not as expected [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the lead price to fall; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [33]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price fell to $15390/ton, and the inventory increased. The spot premium decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia adjusted the RKAB approval system [34][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global primary nickel supply is expected to be in excess, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for options [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2511 contract closed at 12730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [39]. - **Important Information**: The EU tightened steel import policies, and a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from a Taiwanese supplier [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand for stainless steel is differentiated, and the supply is high. Without production - capacity reduction policies, the trend is weak [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a weak oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures price fell before the holiday, and the spot price was at a premium [44][45]. - **Important Information**: Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The output increased, and the demand was strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on the dips [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips for single - sided trading; buy out - of - the - money put options for options; no strategy for arbitrage [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price oscillated narrowly before the holiday, and the spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information**: India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese polysilicon products [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in October, demand is weakening, and there may be a callback in November. It is recommended to buy on the dips after the callback [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips after a full callback for single - sided trading; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts for arbitrage; buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options for options [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract closed at 72800 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: Chile's lithium exports increased in September, the US terminated energy projects, and a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state lithium batteries [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight in October and may return to balance in November. October may be a turning point [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The LME tin price fell to $36250/ton, and the spot price rose. The LME tin inventory increased [57][58]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, and the global AI infrastructure expenditure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2026 [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term weak oscillation and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar for single - sided trading; wait and see for options [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and production cuts, with supply expected to increase and consumption remaining weak next week. The overall trend is a bullish one, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [3][7][8]. - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [15]. - The aluminum market is influenced by overseas monetary policy expectations, and prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [20][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost, and futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [26][27]. - The zinc market may be supported by overseas de - stocking, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [32][33][34]. - The lead market has a tight balance in the raw material end and uncertain production at the smelting end. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season. Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [39][40][41]. - The nickel market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation due to a large surplus in the next two years and limited impact from policy changes [44][46][47]. - The stainless steel market has a differentiated terminal demand, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [53][54][55]. - The tin market has a tight supply at the mine end, and short - term prices may oscillate with limited space. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][62][63]. - The industrial silicon market has strong short - term demand, and the strategy is to buy on dips [67][68][70]. - The polysilicon market is affected by supply - demand imbalance, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [73][74][75]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand situation in October, but may return to balance in November. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [77][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.19%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 31,427 lots to 564,600 lots [2]. - Spot: After the holiday, copper prices soared, and spot trading was sluggish. Premiums varied in different regions [2]. Important Information - As of October 9, the national mainstream copper inventory increased, and it is expected to increase next week due to supply increase and consumption weakness [3]. - On October 8, the Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Peruvian copper mine [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply disruptions and production cuts intensify the tightness of copper mines, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and prices are mainly affected by rigid demand [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 11,316 lots to 387,800 lots [11]. - Spot: Prices in different regions showed a downward trend [11]. Related Information - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased. National inventory increased, and there was a monthly supply surplus [12]. - The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased in September, and the industry's average profit decreased [13]. Logic Analysis - Supply continues to increase, resulting in an oversupply situation. Production cuts may occur in October or November, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to be weak [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract increased by 335 yuan to 21,090 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 38,408 lots to 500,500 lots [18]. - Spot: Aluminum ingot prices in different regions increased [18]. Related Information - The US government shut down, and economic data release was delayed. Domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and inventory increased after the holiday [18][19]. Trading Logic - Affected by overseas monetary policy expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term inventory accumulation [20][21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to rise in an oscillating manner [22]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [22]. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 300 yuan to 20,550 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 1,259 lots to 21,433 lots [25]. - Spot: Prices remained stable in different regions [25]. Related Information - The warehouse - receipt of aluminum alloy on the SHFE increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [25]. Trading Logic - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to drive the price of ADC12 spot [26]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 increased by 1.73% to 22,315 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased its positions by 13,700 lots to 221,200 lots [31]. - Spot: Trading was mainly among traders, and downstream enterprises had low willingness to receive goods [31]. Related Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased after the holiday, and the Kipushi mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [32]. Logic Analysis - Overseas de - stocking may support prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing [33]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may be strong, and short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [34]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [34]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 1.09% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index decreased its positions by 991 lots to 71,900 lots [36]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and trading was light [36][38]. Related Information - Lead ingot inventory decreased, and the resumption of a lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed [39]. Logic Analysis - The raw material end is in a tight balance, and the smelting end has uncertain production. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [41]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [41]. Nickel Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel 2511 contract increased by 2,900 to 124,480 yuan/ton [43]. - Spot: Premiums of different brands of nickel remained stable or slightly increased [43]. Related Information - Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026. Indonesia adjusted the RKAB quota approval system, and Antam invested in a nickel project [44][46]. Logic Analysis - The nickel market has a large surplus in the next two years, and policy changes have limited impact. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [46]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [47]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [48]. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The Stainless Steel SS2511 contract increased by 75 to 12,860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The EU tightened steel import policies, a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from Taiwan, and an Indian stainless steel company put a new plant into operation [53][54]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is differentiated, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [55]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [56]. Tin Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 287,070 yuan/ton, up 2.99%, and positions increased by 13,345 lots to 70,056 lots [58]. - Spot: The market was inactive, and downstream replenishment willingness was low [58]. Related Information - PT Timah in Indonesia adjusted the tin sand purchase price and payment method, and the government cracked down on illegal mining [59]. Logic Analysis - The US government shutdown and Indonesian mining crackdown have limited impact on supply. The mine end is still tight, and short - term supply shows improvement signs [62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may oscillate with limited space, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [63]. - Options: Wait and see [64]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The Industrial Silicon 2511 contract oscillated and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton [65]. - Spot: Spot prices were at a premium to futures [66]. Related Information - Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [67]. Comprehensive Analysis - Affected little by the external market, with strong short - term demand, the strategy is to buy on dips [68]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [70]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options [70]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The Polysilicon 2511 contract first fell and then rose, closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day's settlement price [72]. - Spot: Spot prices were stable [72]. Related Information - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells [73]. Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand is bearish for the market, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [74]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy low after a sufficient callback [75]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread between 2511 and 2512 contracts [75]. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options [75]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 200 to 73,340 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 670 to 42,379 tons [76]. - Spot: Spot prices remained stable [76]. Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in September, the US terminated energy projects, a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state batteries, and a large lithium deposit was discovered in Germany [77][78]. Logic Analysis - Supply - demand is tight in October but may return to balance in November. October may be a critical turning point [79]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Wait and see [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The risk - averse demand is boosted by the US government shutdown, with over 90% expectation of a Fed rate cut in October. Real interest rates are declining, and there is capital inflow led by Western investors due to the "currency depreciation trade". Central banks' continuous gold - buying and geopolitical uncertainties strengthen the long - term logic [3]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures opened higher due to the rise in overseas copper prices, but the willingness of the industry to accept goods at high prices is questionable. If post - holiday consumption fails to follow up, copper prices may face downward pressure [15]. - Zinc: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [36]. - Nickel: During the National Day holiday, overseas nickel prices were strong due to policy uncertainties in Indonesia. The supply of upstream nickel ore is expected to tighten, while downstream demand has not significantly improved. Domestic nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday but with limited upward momentum [51]. - Tin: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has decreased. In the short - term, the supply is tight, and the weak demand has little impact on prices. Tin prices are likely to fluctuate [66]. - Lithium carbonate: The previous expectation of a shutdown in Jiangxi's lithium ore market has not been verified. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Xiawo lithium ore and the restocking of downstream sectors [77]. - Silicon: For industrial silicon, prices may rise slightly as enterprises are expected to cut production during the dry season, but the high inventory will limit the price increase. For polysilicon, the market will focus on the expectations of "platform establishment in October" and "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November", and the risk is relatively high [87]. - Aluminum: For aluminum, the short - term price is affected by the mismatch between the increase in seasonal demand and the decline compared to the previous year. The inventory is expected to accumulate during the National Day, but the policy may bring positive sentiment, and the short - term trend is slightly bullish. For alumina, it is in an oversupply state, but the downward profit space may be limited. For cast aluminum alloy, the price is supported by raw material costs and pre - holiday stocking, but weak demand suppresses the price, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [117][118][119]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - The US government shutdown, high Fed rate - cut expectation, capital inflow, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical factors are favorable for gold [3]. - Multiple figures show the price trends of SHFE gold and silver, COMEX gold, and the relationships between gold and other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates [4][8][9][10] Copper - Shanghai copper futures opened higher due to overseas price increases, but high - price acceptance and post - holiday consumption are concerns [15]. - The daily data of copper futures show price changes in different contracts, and copper spot data also show price fluctuations [16][22]. - Data on copper import profit, concentrate processing fees, scrap - to - refined copper price difference, and warehouse receipts are presented [27][31][32] Zinc - The supply side shows an oversupply situation, with differences in domestic and overseas markets. The demand side has issues such as inventory accumulation and low downstream开工 rates [36]. - Zinc futures and spot price data show price changes and spreads [37][42]. - Zinc inventory data show the changes in domestic and overseas inventories [47] Nickel - Overseas nickel prices were strong during the holiday due to Indonesian policy uncertainties. Upstream supply is expected to tighten, and downstream demand is weak [51]. - Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot prices, as well as downstream profit margins, are provided [52][61] Tin - After the Fed's decision, the macro impact on tin prices has decreased. Short - term supply is tight, and prices are likely to fluctuate [66]. - Tin futures and spot price data show price changes, and inventory data also show changes [67][71][73] Lithium carbonate - The expectation of a shutdown in the Jiangxi lithium ore market has failed. Attention should be paid to restocking and production resumption [77]. - Lithium carbonate futures and spot price data show price changes, and inventory data show changes [78][80][84] Silicon - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but high inventory limits the increase. Polysilicon market is affected by expectations and has high risks [87]. - Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, as well as production, inventory, and cost data, are presented [88][89][110] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are affected by demand, inventory, and policy. Alumina is in an oversupply state, but the downward profit space may be limited. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by cost and demand [117][118][119]. - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot price data show price changes and spreads [120][123][130] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes in different regions [140]

金属牛市进行时 - 稀土金银铜铝锡钴 20251008 您如何看待稀土市场的未来走势？ 摘要 伦铜、伦锡、伦铝普涨由共振效应引发，预计持续性强。美国稀土公司 股价大涨，或因政府入股及订单支持。国内稀土市场预计 10 月普涨， 供给端民企停产影响显著，新能源车和风电需求强劲，看好四季度及明 年上半年需求。 印尼严打非法矿山或影响全球 5%锡精矿供应。尽管短期锡价高开低走， 但逢低布局思路不变，预计明年高点可达 35 万元/吨。建议关注锡业股 份、华锡有色等标的，若锡价达 35 万元/吨，协鑫股份市值或达 600 亿 元，华锡有色可达三四百亿元。 刚果金实行配额后，钴价暴涨，远期价格已超 34 万甚至接近 35 万。市 场预期明年钴价高点 40 万元左右，均价 35 万以上。若配额维持 9-10 万吨，将导致供需扭转，长期缺口显现。建议关注华友钴业、洛阳钼业、 腾远钴业及力勤资源。 假期期间，黄金和白银分别上涨 3.6%和 2.5%，黄金价格达到历史性的 4,000 美元每盎司。铜价上涨超过 3%，逼近 2024 年 LME 铜价高点 11,100 美元。 Q&A 请问您对四季度有色金属板块的整体展望是什么？ 四 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].

有色金属季报 四季度 旺季支撑价格 成色决定高度 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 ——2025 年 4 季度有色金属分析报告 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 内容摘要： 有色金属季报 四季度 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 宏观：海外方面，受全球需求疲软、贸易摩擦及供应链重构影响，美国经济增长动能有所 放缓。制造业表现疲软，并未出现反转信号，但服务业相对强劲成为经济增长的主要引擎，劳 动力市场增长近乎停滞，下行风险上升，通胀水平呈小幅反弹趋势，核心通胀粘性仍较强，且 关税政策不确定性或继续推高通胀压力。市场普遍预期美联储 10 月份降息概率 ...