黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业

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物价数据|为何反内卷政策下PPI改善低于市场预期?(2025年7月)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 09:29
Core Insights - The July PPI improved on a month-on-month basis but remained unchanged year-on-year at -3.6%, slightly below market expectations, indicating a disconnect in price transmission from upstream raw materials to downstream industries [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant price increases in key commodities such as coal, steel, and lithium, but these increases have not effectively translated into higher industrial product prices [2][3] - The ongoing "pig cycle misalignment" has resulted in CPI slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by unexpected price increases in core goods, energy, and other services [5][6] PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI improved due to rising commodity prices, but the year-on-year figure did not show improvement, highlighting weak downstream demand and limited pricing power for enterprises [1][3] - The analysis framework indicates that while upstream raw material prices have improved, the PPI for downstream industries has continued to decline, particularly in the export chain [4] - The dual impact of supply-side policies and demand-side pressures is evident, with the export chain facing significant downward pressure [4] CPI Insights - The CPI for July was reported at 0.0% year-on-year, slightly above the expected -0.1%, driven by durable goods benefiting from trade-in subsidies and rising energy prices [5][6] - The increase in CPI was significantly influenced by the price hikes in gold and platinum jewelry, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the overall CPI [5] - Expectations for CPI improvement are projected for September, considering the ongoing misalignment in the pig cycle and slow recovery in consumer spending [6] Market Implications - The bond market may experience low volatility as CPI and PPI figures align closely with market expectations, with a focus on inflation recovery and potential demand-side policies [7] - The overall economic environment remains sensitive to both domestic policy effectiveness and international trade dynamics, which could influence future market performance [7]
“反内卷”后的首个PMI
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 05:46
Price Index Insights - In July, the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index were 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The main raw material purchase price index returned above the threshold for the first time in five months, indicating a strong response from enterprises to price expectations under the "anti-involution" policy[8] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry had the highest factory price index at 88.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 80.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 74.5 percentage points[14] PMI Performance by Sector - The comprehensive PMI for "anti-involution" industries recorded 48% in July, up from 47.8% in the previous month, but still below the critical point[21] - Non-"anti-involution" industries maintained a PMI of 50.1%, down from 50.9%, indicating continued expansion[21] - Different enterprise sizes showed varied performance, with large, medium, and small enterprises' PMI at 50.3%, 49.5%, and 46.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline for large and small enterprises while medium enterprises improved[25] Policy and Seasonal Effects - The July Politburo meeting calibrated market expectations for the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain below the threshold in August[26] - Extreme weather conditions, including record rainfall in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, are expected to further impact production in July and August, leading to a weaker PMI outlook[39] - The "anti-involution" policy's first month showed a divergence in PMI across sectors and enterprise types, influenced by both policy and seasonal effects[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[45] - Measurement errors in PMI indicators related to "anti-involution" industries may arise due to incomplete industry self-regulation[45]
黑色产业数据每日监测-20250731
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 10:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of coking coal and coke declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market maintained low inventories and strong rigid demand, with price support still in place. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke remained slightly tight, and the fifth round of price increase for coke started. There was a policy bottom, and buying opportunities after price corrections could be considered [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 31, all black - series commodity futures turned down. The closing price of rebar was 3205 yuan/ton, down 4.19%; the hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3390 yuan/ton, down 3.56%; the iron ore futures closed at 779 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke declined, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down [1] Market Analysis - The decline in the futures market cooled the previous positive sentiment. Some traders sold to realize profits, and the increase in auctions narrowed. Extreme rain in coal - producing areas led to a temporary reduction in coal supply. Coking coal demand remained strong due to high downstream coke - enterprise operating rates and high pig - iron production. Coal mine pre - sales would last until mid - August. The inventory of washed coal plants and coking coal mines reached low levels. After the fourth round of price increases for coke, the profits of coke enterprises continued to shrink, some reduced production, and supply tightened. Steel mills and traders had good procurement enthusiasm, and coke inventories at coking plants were low. The coking industry decided to raise coke prices starting from July 31 [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, take a short - term oscillatory approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the oscillatory market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]
反内卷改善企业预期!短期因素造成制造业PMI环比微降
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 05:45
Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]
黑色建材日报-20250716
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 02:34
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market on July 16, 2025, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][4][7][13][16] - Overall, the market is influenced by macro - policies and fundamentals, with the need to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.76%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8179 tons and the main contract position increasing by 31509 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3259 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.51%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts unchanged and the main contract position decreasing by 13515 lots [2] Market Analysis - Macro: The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. China's urbanization rate is 66%, and the policy for new housing renovation is "steady progress" [3] - Fundamentals: Rebar has a double - decline in supply and demand with accelerated inventory reduction; hot - rolled coils have a double - decline in supply and demand with a slight inventory increase [3] - Outlook: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as terminal demand and cost support [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract (I2509) closed at 767.00 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+0.50), with a position increase of 3867 lots to 66.87 million lots [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas shipments were stable, with Australian shipments down, Brazilian shipments up, and non - mainstream shipments slightly down, and near - end arrivals increasing [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased to 239.81 tons due to regular maintenance and weather reasons [6] - Inventory: Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased [6] - Outlook: The price is short - term bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - realization nodes [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Position - Manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 0.03% at 5784 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8] - Ferrosilicon main contract (SF509) closed up 0.18% at 5494 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5530 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Market Analysis - Technical: Manganese silicon is breaking away from the downward trend and is in a volatile rebound; ferrosilicon is in a wide - range shock [9] - Fundamentals: The industry has an over - supply pattern, with weakening future demand and potential cost reduction [9] - Outlook: Short - term prices are driven by sentiment. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can hedge [10] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Position - The main contract (SI2509) closed up 1.04% at 8785 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton [14] Market Analysis - Technical: It has broken away from the downward trend since November 2024 and is in a short - term rebound [14] - Fundamentals: It has an over - supply problem and insufficient effective demand [14] - Outlook: Short - term prices are driven by sentiment. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can hedge [15] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Spot prices in Shahe were flat, and in Central China, they increased by 30 yuan. The total inventory decreased by 2.87% [17] - The central finance meeting promoted the glass price rebound. In the medium term, avoid short positions [17] Soda Ash - The spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The total inventory increased by 1.11%, with heavy - soda inventory increasing [18] - Demand is weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term. The price is expected to be weak [18]
黑色建材日报:市场稍显谨慎,黑色震荡偏弱-20250708
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 09:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is somewhat cautious, and the black - related products are oscillating weakly. Steel prices are affected by factors such as the off - season consumption, production changes, and market sentiment. Iron ore prices are influenced by global shipments and iron - water production. Double - coking products are in a state of multi - empty game, and power coal prices are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils were 3061 yuan/ton and 3191 yuan/ton respectively. The national urban inventory of building materials was 375.07 million tons, a 1.29% month - on - month increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 174.22 million tons, a 1.87% month - on - month increase. The national building materials transaction volume was 96,000 tons. Building materials are in the off - season, with a slight increase in production and low inventory. Plate production has a slight month - on - month increase, and the current export remains high. The market lacks speculative demand, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore weakened slightly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 731 yuan/ton, a 0.68% decline. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained stable. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total of 29.95 million tons. The daily transaction volume of national main ports decreased by 8.14% month - on - month, and the forward spot transaction volume decreased by 13.13% month - on - month. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Double - Coking Products - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures of double - coking products oscillated. The spot market of port coke was stable, and the domestic market sentiment improved. The inventory of the two ports increased slightly. The price of coking coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The expectation of domestic coal mine resumption is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. The iron - water production of steel mills is at a high level but shows a downward trend. The supply - demand of coking coal has improved slightly. The profit of coke enterprises is not good, but the downstream steel demand has improved. In the short term, the supply - demand of coke has improved slightly, and in the long term, it is still in a relatively loose pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in unilateral trading, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of steam coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The procurement of chemical and platform large customers is stable, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. The supply has basically recovered at the beginning of the month, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The upstream shipping cost at the port has increased, and there is a structural shortage of goods. The downstream rigid demand procurement has been completed in stages, and the coal consumption is expected to increase with the expansion of high - temperature areas. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion with the domestic winning bid price, and the low - calorie Indonesian coal has obvious cost - performance advantages [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250707
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a new round of supply - side reform in the upstream of the industrial chain, but the actual target is anti - involution in the downstream manufacturing sector, so the price increase may not be sustainable [2]. - The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the economic data in May was slightly below expectations while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month. The current state of the steel market is weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory is expected to rise slightly [2]. - Currently, the iron ore market is affected by factors such as the decline in steel mill iron - water production, high global shipments, and high proportion of trade ore inventory, but in the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend driven by the price increase of products like rebar and glass [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting. The real estate market is bottom - building, economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and PMI in June improved. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and demand will weaken with high - temperature weather [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: This week, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased slightly. Apparent demand rebounded slightly month - on - month. The 247 - steel - mill average daily iron - water volume decreased by 1.44 million tons (- 0.59%) compared to last week, and the national building materials steel mill rebar production increased by 3.24 million tons (1.49%) [2][3]. - **Price Data**: The rebar steel main contract closing price was 3072 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract closing price was 3201 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from last week. The rebar spot price in Shanghai increased by 2.92% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price increased by 1.88% [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mill profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. Global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory decline has slowed down, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Last week, the 247 - steel - mill iron - water production exceeded 2.409 billion tons, a decrease of 150 million tons compared to the previous week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7306 billion tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% [5][6]. - **Price Data**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 732.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.23% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 95.85 US dollars/dry ton, up 3.35% from last week [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [5]. III. Industry News - In late June 2025, the national daily average crude steel production was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% month - on - month; the daily average pig iron production was 2.38 million tons, an increase of 0.3% month - on - month; the daily average steel production was 4.21 million tons, an increase of 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% [8]. - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory in 35 ports reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from last week. The average daily import ore handling volume decreased by 45,000 tons from last week [8]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from last week. The average daily iron - water production was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 1.44 million tons from last week. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports decreased by 518,300 tons [8]. - This week, the urban total inventory was 7.2366 million tons, an increase of 81,400 tons (+1.14%) from last week. The building steel inventory was 3.7507 million tons, an increase of 47,600 tons (+1.29%) from last week [8].
6月PMI数据点评:强在中游
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-01 07:46
Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May[2] - The production index is at 51.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of 50.7%[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.2%, rising from 49.8%[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest at 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6%[4] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The service industry business activity index is slightly down at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[14] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index is at 46.2%, remaining below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months[4] - The inventory index has improved, with the purchasing index at 50.2%, up from 47.6%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] Group 4: External Trade and Expectations - New export orders index is at 47.7%, a slight increase from 47.5%[3] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 52.0%, down from 52.5%[14] - The construction industry business activity expectation index is at 53.9%, up from 52.4%[14]
黑色产业数据每日监测-20250613
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 11:33
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall fundamentals of the black industry remain weak this week, with supply improving and demand continuing to slow down. There is a possibility of the industry being dragged down by the weakening of finished products and returning to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling mindset, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Black commodity futures stabilized overall with mixed gains and losses on June 13. The closing price of rebar was 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3082 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 703 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke contracts closed slightly higher [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 79.4 tons week - on - week to 3510.4 tons, reaching an 11 - month high and the highest level in the same period in recent years. The domestic arrival volume also rebounded significantly. Non - mainstream ore shipments have been rising rapidly, but the year - on - year decline in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse on a monthly basis [1]. - Demand: Entering the off - season, terminal demand has been continuously weakening. The total demand for the five major steel products decreased by 19.53 tons week - on - week to 882.17 tons, reaching a one - month low and the lowest level in the same period over the years. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly decreased to 58.44% this week. Steel mills were not active in reducing production. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% to 83.41%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.07% to 90.58%. The daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, only 0.19 tons less than last week but 2.3 tons more than the same period last year, indicating that iron ore demand still has support [1]. - Inventory: The daily average port iron ore shipment volume decreased by 13.81 tons to 315.25 tons, reaching a nearly 3 - month low. With the concentrated arrival of foreign ores, the weekly inventory of imported ores at 47 ports in the country increased by 102.83 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 6.66%, reaching a one - month high. In addition, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 108.50 tons to 8798.68 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio rose to 29.9 days [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price stabilizes from the decline, or trade based on the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].
5月通胀数据解读:5月价格趋势“不变”背后的潜在变化
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-10 09:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].