Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative, with multiple policies aimed at boosting consumption being introduced. The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a strong domestic market and specific measures to stimulate consumption [4] - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new phase in China's high-level opening-up, with significant increases in flight bookings to Hainan, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior [4] - The report notes a robust growth in the beauty and skincare sector, with top brands maintaining their positions and new domestic brands showing significant growth, reflecting changing consumer preferences among younger generations [5][17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase of 6.66% in the retail index from December 15 to December 19, 2025 [8] - The beauty and personal care sector increased by 2.87% during the same period [8] Policy Developments - The central government has introduced various measures to enhance service consumption, including promotional activities and optimizing service availability to meet diverse consumer needs [4] - A joint notification from multiple government departments aims to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption in key areas [4] Market Trends - In the beauty and skincare market, the top five brands include Proya, L'Oreal, Han Shu, Lancôme, and Estée Lauder, with domestic brands like Proya showing strong performance [5] - The report highlights a significant increase in sales for Hainan's duty-free shops, with a 90% year-on-year growth on the first day of the free trade port's operation [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty and skincare, traditional gold jewelry brands favored by younger consumers, and strong tea beverage brands with extensive market coverage [17]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场出现回暖 受政策催化影响，本周上证指数出现上涨。受利好政策落地、市场情绪回暖等因素影响，本周上证指数出 现上涨，主要宽基指数涨跌分化。在主要宽基指数中，上证50表现最好，涨跌幅为0.3%，而科创50表现最 差，涨跌幅为-3.0%。目前万得全A估值处于2010年以来85.7%分位数。 历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。由于岁末年初流动性相对充裕，而经济数据相对 缺乏，景气预期短期内无法证伪，叠加对于政策的乐观预期，投资者乐观情绪相对高涨，在多方面因素支 撑下，A股市场每年春季几乎都会存在一轮较好的行情。2012年以来的14年间，除2022年外，共出现过13 次"春季躁动"行情。 央行货币政策调整、重 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to favorable policy implementation and improved market sentiment. The Shanghai 50 Index performed the best with a gain of 0.3%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw a decline of 3.0%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 85.7 percentile since 2010 [1][11][12] - The retail, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective gains of 6.7%, 2.9%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.6% [1][13][19] Group 2 - Historically, the A-share market experiences a "spring rally" almost every year, driven by factors such as abundant liquidity at the year's end and optimistic policy expectations. Since 2012, there have been 13 instances of this rally, excluding 2022 [2][19] - Key catalysts for the spring rally include adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank, the release of important economic data, and significant meetings. These events provide new operational logic and upward momentum for the market [2][19][20] Group 3 - During the "spring rally" period from 2012 to 2025 (excluding 2022), major broad indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index had average gains of 21.0% and 20.7%, respectively. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well, with average gains of 22.2% and 21.3% during the same period [3][21][24] - Specific industries such as computers, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showed strong performance during the "spring rally," with average gains of 24.7%, 23.9%, and 22.7%, respectively [21][26] Group 4 - The 2026 cross-year market is expected to begin, with policies likely to continue supporting growth and various funds expected to flow into the market. This week, a strong market rally may indicate the start of this cross-year trend, particularly following a period of lackluster performance [4][29][30] - The central economic work conference has outlined a focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and promoting domestic demand, which is expected to bolster market confidence and attract long-term capital inflows [28][30] Group 5 - The growth and consumption sectors are highlighted for investment focus, with TMT and advanced manufacturing historically showing greater elasticity during the "spring rally." The current market environment suggests that the consumption sector may also attract attention due to its relatively low performance this year [5][35][42] - The consumption sector has lagged in performance this year, making it a potential target for "missed opportunity" funds. Recent performance indicates that sectors like retail and beauty care are beginning to show stronger gains [5][42][45]

Core Insights - The article highlights that certain cyclical and consumer sectors have underperformed the market for three consecutive years, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][6]. Industry Analysis - The sectors with the highest expected net profit growth for next year include: - Agriculture (planting, breeding, feed) - Internet e-commerce - Leisure food - Beauty care (personal care products, cosmetics) - Light manufacturing (household goods, entertainment products) - Automotive services - Social services (hotel catering, tourist attractions) - Cement [1][6]. - Historical data since 2010 shows that industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years and then outperformed in the fourth year include: - Food and beverage (leisure food, food processing, seasoning and fermentation products, non-brewed beverages) - Agriculture (breeding, feed, planting) - Beauty care (cosmetics, personal care products) - Infrastructure - Tourist attractions [1][6]. Financial Metrics - Expected net profit growth rates for various sectors by 2026 are as follows: - Planting: 41% - Breeding: 32% - Chemical fiber: 42% - Chemical raw materials: 24% - Automotive services: 24% - Internet e-commerce: 44% - Cement: 22% [2][7]. - The PE (Price to Earnings) ratios over the past three years indicate reasonable valuation levels for several sectors, with notable figures such as: - Planting at 75% - Chemical fiber at 94% - Internet e-commerce at 69% [2][7].

Group 1: Company Updates - Several companies, including 美之选 (MEDG), Ga Sai Tong (GST), 青民数科 (QMSK), 星妍 (AGIE), and 中毅资本, have updated their prospectuses to advance their respective U.S. IPO processes [1][3][5][7][9] - 美之选 plans to issue 3.33 million shares at a price range of $4 to $5 per share, aiming to raise between $13.33 million and $16.67 million [1][3] - Ga Sai Tong intends to issue 1.3 million shares at a price range of $5 to $7 per share, with a fundraising target of $6.5 million to $9.1 million [1][5] - 青民数科 plans to issue 6.25 million shares at a price range of $4 to $6 per share, targeting $25 million to $37.5 million in fundraising [1][7] - 星妍 aims to issue 1.5 million shares at a price range of $4 to $6 per share, with a fundraising goal of $6 million to $9 million [1][8] Group 2: Financial Performance - 美之选 reported revenue of $3.25 million and a net profit of $0.98 million for the six months ending December 31, 2024 [3] - Ga Sai Tong generated revenue of $1.36 million and a net profit of $0.25 million for the first half of 2025 [5] - 青民数科 reported revenue of $52.86 million and a net profit of $2.25 million for the twelve months ending March 31, 2025 [7] - 星妍 achieved revenue of $4.51 million and a net profit of $0.49 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [8] - 中毅资本 reported revenue of $0.654 million but incurred a net loss of $0.189 million for the twelve months ending March 31, 2025 [9] Group 3: Market Overview - The global medical aesthetic services market was valued at $15.304 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2028, with non-surgical procedures expected to outpace surgical ones [25] - The beauty and personal care market in Hong Kong is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% from 2024 to 2028, while the skincare segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.81% during the same period [25]

Market Performance - The three major indices in the A-share market fell by over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3824.81, down 1.11% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.51% to 12914.67, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.10% to 3071.76 [2] Sector Rankings - The top-performing sectors included retail trade (up 1.32%), beauty care (up 0.66%), and social services (up 0.13%) [3] - The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (down 2.95%), comprehensive (down 2.81%), and non-ferrous metals (down 2.81%) [3] Future Outlook - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches, with all three major indices experiencing declines [4][5] - The report highlights that recent meetings, including the December Federal Reserve meeting, align with market expectations, which may help stabilize risk appetite in the equity market [5] - Economic policies are expected to continue supporting growth, with a projected 14% year-on-year increase in total installed power generation capacity by 2025, and total electricity consumption expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time [5] - Sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, banking, public utilities, transportation, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [5]

12月16日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3824.81点，下跌1.11%；深证成指收报12914.67点，下跌1.51%；创业板指收报3071.76点，下跌2.1%。两市合计成交17241.73亿 元，较上一交易日减少492.66亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超520亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出188.21亿元，尾盘净流出55.16亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出520.66亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-12-16 | -520. 66 | -188. 21 | -55. 16 | -268. 81 | | 2025-12-15 | -360. 27 | -151.41 | -55. 63 | -167.99 | | 2025-12-12 | -89.34 | -136. 84 | -5.49 | -27. 62 | | 2025-12-11 | -563.42 | -129.88 | ...

12月16日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3824.81点，下跌1.11%；深证成指收报12914.67点，下跌1.51%；创业板指收报3071.76点，下跌2.1%。两市合计成交17241.73亿元，较上一 交易日减少492.66亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超520亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出188.21亿元，尾盘净流出55.16亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出520.66亿元。 3.美容护理行业实现净流入 | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流入较多个股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 美容护理 | 0. 32% | 1.42 | 爱美客 | | 商贸零售 | 1. 32% | -1. 62 | 供销大集 | | 社会服务 | -0. 29% | -3. 10 | 中公教育 | | 食品饮料 | 0. 28% | -4. 12 | 伊利股份 | | 综合 | -2. 33% | -4. 55 | 南京新自 | | | | 资金净流出居前的行业 | | | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流出较多个股 | | ...

Core Insights - The beauty care industry experienced a net inflow of funds amounting to 105 million yuan on December 16, with a sector increase of 0.66% despite the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.11% [1] Industry Performance - Among the sectors, beauty care ranked second in terms of growth, following retail trade and social services, which rose by 1.32% and 0.13% respectively [1] - The beauty care sector had 29 stocks, with 15 rising and 14 falling in value [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The total net inflow of funds in the beauty care sector was 105 million yuan, with 17 stocks experiencing net inflows [1] - The top three stocks with significant net inflows were: - Aimeike (爱美客) with 39.98 million yuan - Qingsong Co. (青松股份) with 20.96 million yuan - Shuiyang Co. (水羊股份) with 20.30 million yuan [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Proya (珀莱雅) with 8.62 million yuan - Zhongshun Jierou (中顺洁柔) with 6.81 million yuan - Yanjian Co. (延江股份) with 5.90 million yuan [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - Aimeike (爱美客) increased by 2.02% - Qingsong Co. (青松股份) increased by 1.03% - Shuiyang Co. (水羊股份) increased by 1.20% [1] - Conversely, stocks like Proya (珀莱雅) and Zhongshun Jierou (中顺洁柔) saw declines in their values [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector experienced a significant rally on December 16, driven by supportive policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, which has been elevated to a strategic priority for the economy [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Support - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is crucial for economic stability and security, and it is not merely a temporary measure but a strategic initiative [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the need to unleash consumer potential through various measures, including special actions to boost consumption and plans to increase residents' income [1][4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "maintaining demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market" as a key task for the upcoming year, reflecting the government's commitment to boosting consumption [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The consumer sector's attractiveness is underscored by its current low valuation after a prolonged adjustment period, indicating a significant technical rebound demand [3]. - For instance, the food and beverage sector has a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.8, with a percentile ranking of only 13.04%, compared to over 64 times at its peak in February 2021, highlighting its investment value [3]. - Major consumer companies like Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home reported year-on-year profit growth in the first three quarters, demonstrating strong operational resilience [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A number of consumer stocks are showing characteristics of a "golden pit," where stock prices have declined despite strong earnings growth, presenting potential investment opportunities [3]. - Examples include leading condiment company Haitian Flavoring, which saw its stock price drop over 18% while achieving a 10.54% increase in net profit, and TCL Technology, which experienced a 16% decline in stock price with an 18.45% rise in net profit [3]. - Other companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Xueda Education, and Bear Electric also fit this profile, offering potential for value investors [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Recent initiatives by the Ministry of Commerce and financial regulators to expand and upgrade rural consumption, along with credit support, open new avenues for market expansion [4]. - Analysts expect that the focus on expanding domestic demand will lead to more specific policies in the future, enhancing investor confidence in the consumer sector [4]. - The outlook for traditional consumption is anticipated to improve, while new consumption trends may experience rotation, but overall, the consumer sector is expected to maintain sustainability underpinned by both policy and market fundamentals [4].