"新"向未来——平安基金2025年中期投资策略会于6月25日-26日举行，多位行业专家对当前经济形势、 热门行业发展前景、资产配置等话题展开探讨。平安消费精选混合基金经理丁琳在作《潮起东方，五大 赛道破局新消费——2025年新消费投资分析》主题报告时表示，消费市场正经历着深刻的变革，2025 年，新消费领域呈现出多样化的发展趋势，为投资者带来了丰富的投资机会。 消费趋势展望：精神消费、性价比消费、消费品牌出海 丁琳对中长期消费趋势进行了展望，认为精神消费、性价比消费和消费品牌出海三大领域值得重点关 注。精神消费当前也是短期的消费热点。 休闲零食方面，零售渠道发生变革，零食量贩折扣业态兴起，新零售业态如零食量贩店凭借更高的效率 和更好的消费体验，迅速占领市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文的数据，2024年中国休闲食品饮料零售市场规 模达到37380亿元，预计到2029年将达到49477亿元。零食量贩店通过优化供应链和运营模式，能够提供 更具性价比的产品，满足消费者"多快好省"的需求，符合当下消费大环境。 国货化妆品品牌在国际市场上的崛起是消费品牌出海的重要体现。根据欧睿数据，2024年中国美妆个护 市场规模为5372亿元 ...

| 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年6月25日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 760. 70 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 756. 30 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 758. 40 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 763. 90 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 6月25日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价继续下跌，大部分金店金价都跌下了千元大关。目前，老凤祥以领先1元的 优势，取代周生生黄金成为今日最高价金店，报价1006元/克。上海中国黄金今日下跌12元/克，报价981元/克，成为新的最 低价金店。今日品牌金店价差25元/克（1006元/克-981元/克），价差稍稍扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月25日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 9 ...

Core Insights - The sixth "Shanghai Shopping Festival" is taking place from late April to late June, focusing on exploring new highlights and trends in Shanghai's physical consumption [1] - There is a noticeable increase in young consumers purchasing gold, with brands adapting their product designs to cater to this demographic [1][7] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Young consumers aged 18 to 34 contribute over one-third of gold jewelry sales, showing a shift in purchasing power towards younger demographics [7] - The trend of buying gold has become a frequent topic in social interactions, indicating a cultural shift in consumer behavior [1] - Traditional jewelry brands are innovating to meet changing consumer demands, with younger buyers favoring smaller, culturally significant designs over traditional heavy gold pieces [7][8] Group 2: Promotional Activities - The "Five-Five Shopping Festival" saw significant promotional activities, including high-value consumer vouchers that led to long queues at gold stores [3] - The first round of exclusive consumer vouchers for the "Endless Trend Huaihai Road" was fully claimed within 8 seconds, demonstrating high consumer interest [5] - Stores have increased staffing and implemented strategies to manage the influx of customers due to promotional activities [5][10] Group 3: Industry Developments - Shanghai is positioning itself as an international jewelry fashion hub, with plans to enhance its competitive edge through a three-year development plan [12][13] - The establishment of the Shanghai International Jewelry Fashion Functional Zone aims to attract investment and promote innovation within the industry [12] - The local government is actively supporting the development of the jewelry sector to enhance Shanghai's status as a global consumption center [13]

高端商场黄金珠宝专家交流 20250624 摘要 2025 年 1 月至 5 月，北京 SKP 中国黄金增速达 199%，主要受 4 月大 单驱动；剔除该因素，菜百、周大福等品牌增速在 30%-50%之间，反 映黄金品类整体增长态势。 新品牌如老凤祥通过提价预告、会员政策调整和新品研发，显著提升了 2025 年销售业绩，表明灵活的市场策略对品牌增长至关重要。 老铺凭借精湛工艺和黄金镶嵌优势，在 2025 年北京 SKP 销售额大幅增 长，4 月 SKPS 新店单月销售额达 7,000 万元，预计全年增速超 200%。 老铺客户画像稳定，客单价因涨价突破 3 万元，饰品销售占比 89%，女 性顾客占比 85%，与奢侈品和国际珠宝品牌客户重叠度上升至 38%。 北京 SKP 引入老凤祥、周大生国家宝藏等新品牌，月均业绩约 200 万元， 但国家宝藏表现较弱，表明品牌认知度和合作款式对业绩有直接影响。 美妆赛道整体承压，北京 SKP 美妆销售下降 5%，但成都市场表现强势， 总体增长 6%。毛戈平快闪店在北京 SKP 月均销售额达 400 万元。 未来五年黄金市场预计将保持红利期，受经济环境和消费者保守心态驱 动， ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the home appliance and consumer discretionary sectors during the 2025 618 shopping festival, highlighting a strong overall performance with a sales increase of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching 587.5 billion yuan, the best in three years, driven by national subsidy policies and improved macro consumption environment [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: The sales amount concentrated in the 2,000 to 5,000 yuan range, up from 1,000 to 2,000 yuan last year, indicating an increase in consumer willingness to purchase higher-priced items due to national subsidies [1][4]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are increasingly purchasing high-priced items, with a slight decline in average transaction value but an overall increase in total consumption [1][4]. - **Brand Strategies**: Home appliance brands are demanding higher profit margins, with a focus on product experience and a rigorous selection strategy that includes high-traffic and high-rated products [1][6]. - **Pet Industry Growth**: The pet industry saw a 32% year-on-year growth, with Royal brand leading in sales and growth rate at 35%, capturing approximately 25%-27% market share [1][7][8][10]. Detailed Performance by Category - **Home Appliances**: - Overall sales reached 1,509 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2% [12]. - Major categories like air conditioners, washing machines, and televisions showed strong growth rates of 23%, 19%, and 24% respectively [14]. - The refrigerator category lagged with only a 12% growth [15]. - Small appliances underperformed, with a 5% decline in average transaction value and slowed sales growth [16][17]. - **Specific Brand Performance**: - Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi performed well in major appliance categories, while Casarte brand achieved a 28% growth, particularly strong on the JD platform [20]. - The vacuum cleaner category saw a 32% growth, with brands like Xiaomi and Stone showing significant increases [14][22]. Competitive Landscape - **E-commerce Dynamics**: JD.com outperformed competitors like Pinduoduo and Taobao, with a notable increase in user engagement and shopping frequency due to simplified promotional strategies and enhanced shopping experiences [3][4][5]. - **Market Trends**: The competition among e-commerce platforms intensified, with a decrease in the number of platforms used by consumers, leading to a decline in Pinduoduo's user base [3][4]. Additional Insights - **Profit Margins**: Small appliance brands saw a profit margin increase of approximately 1-1.5 percentage points, attributed to reduced competitive pressure and adjusted marketing strategies [21]. - **Future Outlook**: The home appliance market is expected to slow down in growth in the second half of 2025, but there is confidence in integrating more brands and expanding into lower-tier markets [23][24]. Conclusion - The 2025 618 shopping festival demonstrated robust growth across various sectors, particularly in home appliances and the pet industry, driven by favorable consumer sentiment and strategic brand initiatives. The competitive landscape is evolving, with JD.com maintaining a strong position against its rivals. Future growth strategies will focus on brand integration and market expansion.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming peak season for tourism and cultural activities, highlighting the potential of combining IP with scenic spots and the ongoing popularity of the "Su Chao" theme in Jiangsu [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on brands with high terminal store efficiency and significant expansion potential in the gold and jewelry sector, as well as the growing demand for personal care products driven by innovation and emotional branding [5][6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to see market share gains among leading institutions due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The tourism market in Hainan is thriving, with a 62% year-on-year increase in overall bookings for the summer of 2025 [11] - China Duty Free Group is expanding its presence in Macau with a new store opening [11] - Investment suggestions include focusing on duty-free operators and their city store openings, particularly China Duty Free, Wangfujing, and Lingnan Holdings [11] 2. Trendy Toys - The trendy toy sector is experiencing short-term volatility due to regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the secondary market, but long-term growth is anticipated as China's cultural products expand internationally [19] - In the first five months of 2025, the domestic online sales of trendy toys reached approximately 2.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61% [19][22] 3. Hotels - The hotel sector is seeing fluctuations in RevPAR due to the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a notable year-on-year decline in performance metrics [36] - Supply growth remains stable, primarily driven by lower-tier markets [40] 4. Education - The number of high school graduates is expected to remain high, maintaining competitive pressure in the education sector [42] - The number of college graduates is projected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, increasing demand for vocational training and exam preparation services [45] 5. Medical Beauty and Cosmetics - The medical beauty sector is recovering, with a focus on product innovation and market share expansion among leading companies [47] - The beauty sector is expected to see a rebound in sales during the 618 shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [53][58] 6. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector increasing by 21.8% year-on-year in May 2025 [82] - Investment recommendations include brands with strong terminal store performance and expansion potential, such as Chao Hong Ji and Lai Shen Tong Ling [86]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival in 2025, with total sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [5] - Major platforms such as Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou experienced an overall transaction growth of 10.4% during the festival period [5] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the beauty sector, with a total GMV of 65.9 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 10% [5] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,381.58, with a gain of 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.43% to 10,048.39 [4] - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline of 5.12% in the SW index, underperforming the broader market [6] E-commerce Performance - Taobao and Tmall's GMV, excluding refunds, grew by 10%, marking the largest increase in three years, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [5] - JD.com reported a record high in user orders, with over 2.2 billion orders placed during the festival, and a 285% increase in live-streaming sales [5] - Douyin's sales increased by 77%, with over 60,000 brands doubling their sales [5] - Kuaishou's GMV for the festival grew by over 53%, indicating a robust performance across various product categories [5] Industry Dynamics - Uniqlo's collaboration with Pop Mart's IP "THE MONSTERS" is set to launch new products, indicating a trend towards brand collaborations in the apparel sector [6] - The opening of the first overseas store by Lao Pu Gold in Singapore marks a significant step in global expansion for the company [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sports brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in the sports and outdoor sector [7] - It also suggests monitoring home textile companies such as Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile, which are likely to benefit from government subsidies [7] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies like Shenzhou International and Yuyuan Group are highlighted for their low valuation and growth potential [9]

公募"后浪"汹涌而来 控制回撤成必修课 "后浪"汹涌，公募新势力席卷而来。在今年以来业绩排名前十的主动权益类基金中，半数基金经理管理 年限不足3年。他们凭借对新消费和创新药领域的精准布局，业绩表现相对抢眼。在业内人士看来，新 生代基金经理们进攻性十足，但在注重进攻锐度的同时，还需深刻理解控制回撤的重要性，做好收益和 回撤的平衡，这是保持长期高回报的关键所在。（上证报） 近一个月以来，中国创新药企对外授权巨额交易捷报频传。先是三生制药公布了一项总金额超60亿美元 的对外授权BD（商务拓展）大单，其12.5亿美元首付款创下此前最高纪录；紧接着是石药集团宣布与 阿斯利康订立战略研发合作协议，总金额达53.3亿美元。三生制药、石药集团的巨额BD交易大单，让 外界看到了中国创新药产品的价值，也使得"中国研发，海外授权"的创新药发展逻辑被广泛认可，中国 创新药行业的角色正在实现从"跟随者"到"参与者"乃至"贡献者"的跨越式发展。（证券时报） 业绩分化显著 16家公司率先"透底"半年报 A股半年度业绩预告陆续披露。数据显示，截至6月23日17时，A股共有16家上市公司对外披露2025年半 年度业绩预告，其中包括多家行业头部 ...

最后，美银认为，在近期股价回落后，老铺黄金的风险回报比具吸引力。尽管其盈利增长更快，但老铺 黄金的估值极具吸引力，目前2025和2026财年市盈率的估值分别为29倍、21倍的，较"新消费"同行平均 36倍、26倍的市盈率分别折让19%及18%。随着禁售期即将到期，美银认为任何价格下跌均为良好的入 场时机。 美银认为老铺黄金有以下利好因素，其一是加快开店速度及销售势头强劲。美银指，老铺黄金今年至今 已开设4家精品店，计划2025年共开设8家，超该行原先预测，其中21日开幕的新加坡门店吸引大量客 流。此外，今年至今线上销售表现强劲下，该行预期黄金价格上涨(根据该行预测，未来12个月可能达 到每盎司4,000美元)、老铺黄金的创新产品推出及品牌知名度提升，将继续推动老铺黄金的的销量稳健 增长，促进市场渗透。 此外，美银预测老铺黄金今年6月28日将迎来大规模限售股解禁，23%的股份将可出售。该行预期限售 股解禁后，预计自由流通股本可能会更健康，从而扩大老铺黄金投资者基础，降低波动性并提升价格发 现。美银还预期海外投资兴趣增加及"新消费"类股之间的轮动将带来有利资金流。 美银证券发布研报称，尽管老铺黄金(06181)次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share IPO pace has significantly slowed since the implementation of major policies on August 27, 2023, with over 300 new stocks listed in 2023 and only 100 expected in 2024, leading many pre-IPO companies to seek alternative routes to market through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: M&A Activity - Since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines" in September 2024, the enthusiasm for M&A in the A-share market has surged, with 25 listed companies actively pursuing acquisitions of pre-IPO firms [1][2] - Among the 25 companies, 12 expect their acquisitions to constitute major asset restructurings, while 13 do not [2] - The majority of these M&A activities are concentrated in high-demand sectors, including electronics, machinery, basic chemicals, and computers [2] Group 2: Payment Methods and Valuations - The "M&A Six Guidelines" encourage the use of various payment methods, including cash, shares, and convertible bonds, to enhance transaction flexibility [2] - Among the disclosed acquisition amounts, the highest is from Wens Foodstuffs Group, at 1.61 billion yuan [2] - The average premium for the acquired targets is approximately 114.14%, with notable valuations such as Zhaoyi Innovation's acquisition of Suzhou Saixin at a premium of 289.48% [8] Group 3: Industry Focus and Trends - The acquired companies predominantly belong to the "double innovation" sector, showcasing significant technological advantages [3] - A substantial 84% of the M&A cases involve transactions within the same industry, indicating a trend towards horizontal and vertical integration [5] - The ongoing M&A activities reflect a broader trend of companies seeking to enhance their technological capabilities and market positions in response to policy support [4][3] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Companies like Jinyi Culture are exploring strategic transformations, such as moving from jewelry to software services, to adapt to changing market conditions [6][7] - The integration of technology and innovation into business strategies is becoming a mainstream approach among listed companies [7]