近日，中国黄金全资子公司中金珠宝国际有限公司(暂定名，简称"国际公司")正式设立。依托海南"零关 税、低税率、简税制"以及跨境资金自由流动政策，国际公司将构建覆盖跨境供应链管理、免税业务拓 展与文化出海的综合平台，为黄金珠宝行业提供"央企出海"的标杆范式。国际公司成立后，将立即启动 与中国中免、澳门南光集团等战略伙伴在渠道深耕、文创产品开发、跨境赛事营销等方面的深度合作。 ...

"没有百花齐放，只有独一无二才能屹立于市场。" 作者 | 李小霞 编辑 | 乔芊 36氪独家获悉，黄金手工艺术品牌「琳朝珠宝」已完成亿元级战略投资，独家投资方为日初资本。本轮投资将用于产品创新、品牌升级、渠道建设及生产 基地建设。 "从0到1的原创和创新，付出的心血是外人想象不到的，每天都在纠结，每天都在提心吊胆，你永远不知道最后做出来会是什么样子。放眼中国黄金珠宝 行业，到今天为止，没有任何一个品牌走过我们这样的路。"马朝贤告诉36氪。 因为定制模式，不需要像传统品牌那样大量铺货，这让琳朝对资金的需求也没那么渴切，以至于日初资本创始人陈峰十多次到访都吃了闭门羹。 历经一年多时间，马朝贤才慢慢被打动。"人家是三顾茅庐，他是十三顾茅庐，而且他每次聊的内容都特别真诚，不管是公司运营、管理，还是未来规 划，每一个点都和我想的很契合。" 在陈峰看来，中国珠宝行业正在经历一次巨大的行业变革，过去二十年是渠道和模式驱动，未来则是文化、产品和原创驱动。今天中国不缺黄金珠宝品 牌，中国缺一个极致工艺、文化原创、设计原创、工艺原创的全球性品牌。未来行业没有百花齐放，只有独一无二才能屹立于市场。 作为日初资本的转型之作，在本轮投 ...

金店门口冷清清，黄金市场却热得发烫，这可能是2025年最魔幻的现实之一。 "今年最难做。"几乎是每位黄金行业从业者都会说的话。说完这句，紧跟着补上一句："明年可能更难做。"在深圳水贝黄金市场——全国最大的黄金批发市 场，这样的悲观情绪无处不在。 展厅冷清，走廊空空，货架上的黄金多了，买的人却少了。而与此同时，国际金价却在2025年飙升超过50%，创下自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。 2025年的黄金市场，出现了一系列令人费解的现象。当纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格突破3300美元/盎司时，国内黄金饰品价格也站上了1300元/克的历史高 位。 按理说，金价如此飙升，黄金产业链上的企业应该赚得盆满钵满才对。然而，事实却截然相反。 "金价越高，我们挣得越少。" 水贝一家黄金头部企业的相关负责人直言不讳。他算了一笔账：以黄金原料价每克752元为例，纯利润只有3元出头，毛利率 仅0.4%。 更让人揪心的是，从2024年到现在，他们的首饰销量差不多掉了四成。 01 反常现象，金价与市场的背离 02 产业链危机，从金店到矿场的集体困境 传统金店的日子同样不好过。周大福2025财年上半年，营业额同比下降20.4%，净利润暴跌4 ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price surged to a two-week high, reaching $4219.20 per ounce, with a 1.49% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have shown significant increases, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1328 CNY per gram, up 10 CNY from the previous day [2] - Market analysis indicates that gold prices will be influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a consensus that December rate cuts are likely, weakening the medium-term strength of the US dollar [4] Group 2 - Predictions suggest that international gold prices may experience moderate increases, with an expected range of $4200 to $4500 per ounce and an average increase of 8% to 12% by Q1 2026 [4] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are expected to continue driving international gold price trends, while macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, may lead to price volatility [4]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4219.20 per ounce, marking a 1.49% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant increases, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1328 CNY per gram, up 10 CNY from the previous day [3] - Market analysis indicates that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to weaken the dollar's medium-term strength, enhancing gold's appeal [5] Group 2 - Predictions suggest that international gold prices may experience moderate increases, with an expected range of $4200 to $4500 per ounce by Q1 2026, averaging an increase of 8% to 12% [6] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are anticipated to continue influencing international gold price trends [6] - The overall risk sentiment and expectations of a low interest rate environment are likely to support gold's attractiveness in the medium term [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the new consumption industry [3] Core Insights - New consumption is characterized by new demand from emerging consumer groups like Generation Z and a shift from leverage-driven consumption to income-driven consumption among older demographics [5][17] - The supply side benefits from China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the internet's ability to reshape business models and efficiency [5][17] - The report highlights two main investment opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, and defensive cyclical sectors like liquor and travel [5][4] Summary by Sections New Consumption: What is New Consumption? - New consumption has gained traction in recent years, initially a term from the primary market, now widely recognized [17] - It encompasses both new demand from younger consumers and a shift in older consumers' preferences towards more rational spending [17][21] New Demand: Stars Gather to Form Light - Emotional consumption and the rise of national trends are significant drivers, with luxury attributes associated with products [46] - The report identifies key sectors: IP toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [5][4] New Supply: Old Trees Sprout New Buds - The report emphasizes that industries with easier pathways develop first, while more challenging sectors follow as technology and information improve [33] - It discusses the efficiency gains in retail and service sectors through standardization and technological advancements [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors (e.g., trendy toys, gold jewelry) and defensive cyclical sectors (e.g., liquor, travel) [5][4] - Specific companies to watch include Pop Mart, Mijia, and various tea brands [5][4] Emotional Consumption and National Trends - Generation Z's emotional consumption is highlighted, with a significant portion willing to pay for emotional value [21][23] - The report notes the increasing acceptance of Chinese brands among younger consumers, contrasting with older generations' preferences [21][22] Gold Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is projected to grow significantly, with ancient gold jewelry gaining popularity due to its cultural significance [86][87] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry is expected to reach 4,214 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [86][87] IP Toy Market - The report outlines the rapid growth of the IP toy market, with a projected market size of 1,741 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [69][70] - The emotional value associated with IP toys is a key driver of consumer interest and market expansion [78][79]

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry is experiencing increased market volatility as of the end of 2025, with a focus on capturing new consumption trends and expectations for a reversal of traditional consumption challenges [1] 2025 Review - In the first nine months of 2025, the total retail sales reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, with retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles growing by 4.9% [2] - By category, cosmetics sales grew by 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to a low base last year and rising gold prices [2] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 2,060 billion yuan, marking a 6.4% increase, demonstrating resilience despite external impacts such as tariffs [2] - The consumption landscape shows structural highlights in sectors like pets, trendy toys, personal care, and jewelry, driven by insights into new consumer demands and product innovation [2] - The new consumption industry trends and expectations for a reversal in traditional consumption challenges are identified as the two main themes, with a positive market performance at the beginning of the year followed by a cooling trend later on [2] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored domestically, including customer return during offline channel adjustments and new dividends from innovative business models like instant retail, while overseas expansion remains crucial for Chinese brands [3] - New demands will focus on insights into emerging consumer preferences, emphasizing emotional and practical value in products, and exploring innovation through IP+ and AI+ [3] - A platform-based approach is necessary due to intensified competition, requiring companies to create mechanisms for continuous growth through both internal and external opportunities [3] Investment Recommendations - For beauty and personal care, focus on leading companies with room for product innovation and those with platform capabilities for iterative growth, such as Shangmei Co., Proya, and others [4] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies with differentiated designs and expansion potential are expected to benefit, including Chao Hong Ji and Chow Tai Fook [4] - For cross-border e-commerce, leading firms expanding in target markets and new categories will see sustained fundamental catalysts, such as Small Commodity City and Anker Innovations [4] - In offline retail, companies showing initial operational improvements should be monitored, including Jiajiayue and Miniso [4]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in consumer demand and the importance of adapting to new market conditions [1][4][10] 2025 Industry Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.9% [2][10] - The cosmetics sector saw a stable growth of 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to low base effects and rising gold prices [2][26] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.4% despite external pressures [2][33] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored, including offline channel adjustments and innovations in instant retail, alongside continued overseas expansion opportunities [3][61] - New consumer demands will focus on emotional and practical value, leveraging AI and IP for product innovation [3][66] - A platform-based approach is necessary to ensure sustainable growth amid intensifying competition and shorter product life cycles [3][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in beauty care, gold and jewelry, cross-border e-commerce, and offline retail, with specific recommendations for companies like Up Beauty, Chow Tai Fook, and Yonghui Superstores [4][34] - The beauty care sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and platform capabilities, while gold and jewelry companies are advised to capitalize on differentiated designs [4][45] - Cross-border e-commerce firms are projected to thrive as external tariff impacts diminish, with recommendations for companies like Anker Innovations and Focus Technology [4][54] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes a structural shift in consumer preferences, with a growing emphasis on emotional value and product differentiation, particularly among younger demographics [3][78] - Instant retail is identified as a significant growth area, with the market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][80] Cross-Border E-commerce Insights - Cross-border e-commerce continues to show resilience, with exports to the EU growing by 8.4% while exports to the US declined by 17% due to tariff impacts [33][87] - Successful brands in overseas markets are those that effectively combine global branding with localized operational strategies [87]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sudden surge after initially declining, driven by new statements from key Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1][3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, citing possible downward revisions to September employment data, which increased market expectations for lower interest rates [3] - Goldman Sachs projected that the Federal Reserve would implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, reinforcing the growing consensus in the financial community regarding this expectation [3][5] Group 2: Investment Risks in Gold - The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicated an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant increase from the previous day's 69.4%, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards gold and other safe-haven assets [5] - Several cases of dubious gold investment schemes were highlighted, including a dealer promoting "gold leasing" and another offering high returns on gold investments through an app with an 80x leverage, which poses significant risks to investors [7][9] - Regulatory warnings were issued to the public about the dangers of high-leverage gold investments and the importance of choosing legitimate channels to avoid illegal financial activities [9][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market Trends - Aluminum prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors, with recent declines attributed to a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve comments and mixed employment data [11][15] - Analysts noted that the oversupply of alumina and high inventory levels are likely to keep aluminum prices under pressure, with a potential for production cuts in December, although immediate impacts on supply-demand dynamics may be limited [13][15] - The aluminum market remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for a potential weakening in demand and increased supply in the coming months, particularly with new capacities coming online [17][18]

11月27日，"2025搜狐财经年度论坛"在北京举办。 在论坛中，淡水泉投资投资管理委员会成员、基金经理李天带来了题为"如何理解今年新消费的投资机会"的主题分享。 在李天看来，当前新消费品牌，如潮玩、化妆品、奶茶等的崛起，主要驱动力是女性消费的崛起。女性消费具有"喜欢尝鲜"和"乐于分享"两大特点，这能让 新品牌快速爆发，但也导致品牌忠诚度不高、增长持续性面临挑战。 今年，不少新消费公司在讲出海的逻辑，怎么挑选出海领域的新消费？李天表示，在过去的20年，中国被称为世界工厂，将不同的商品出海或出口，卖给全 世界的消费者。但今年很多商品被追加不同的关税，这个时间阶段，出口项目会渐渐从商品转到服务。 但为什么在今年8月份之后，很多新消费品牌的公司又迅速的让大家感觉到遇冷或衰退呢？其实它恰恰也是源于这两个特点。因为女性消费者的偏好会快速 地在不同的品牌之间切换，所以对于一些品牌势能还没有那么强、品牌心智还没有那么强的品牌，很容易流失掉这部分女性消费用户。 第二个就是针对女性消费者很喜欢分享的特点，也会在短时间内，某种程度上透支明年、后年甚至未来的一些消费，而集中到当期消费。所以你会看到很多 以女性消费者为主的品牌确实是 ...