Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends in the ETF market, highlighting the performance of various sectors and the impact of geopolitical tensions on the defense industry [1][7]. Market Temperature - The market temperature indicator shows that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile valuations of 97.53%, 80.71%, and 39.08% respectively, indicating a mixed valuation landscape [1]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors on November 17, 2025, included: - Computer: +1.67% - Defense Industry: +1.59% - Banking: +1.10% - The sectors that experienced declines were: - Real Estate: -1.11% - Non-bank Financials: -1.31% - Pharmaceuticals: -1.73% [2]. Fund Flow Signals - The top three sectors with net inflows were: - Computer: 4.331 billion - Defense Industry: 2.657 billion - Banking: 0.838 billion - The sectors with the highest net outflows included: - Pharmaceuticals: -6.216 billion - Electronics: -5.311 billion - Power Equipment: -4.718 billion [2]. ETF Performance - The "创业板人工智能ETF华宝" showed a 6-month increase of 78.53% and a daily increase of 2.20% [5]. - The "国防军工ETF" has a strong outlook due to geopolitical tensions and is expected to benefit from increased military orders and technological advancements [7][10]. Geopolitical Impact on Defense Sector - The defense industry is experiencing a surge due to heightened geopolitical tensions, with the 中证军工指数 rising over 1% on November 17, 2025. Key stocks like 长城军工 and 航天发展 reached new highs [7]. - The upcoming "十五五" military orders are anticipated to boost the sector further, alongside military trade catalysts [7].

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3972.03, down by 0.46% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.00, down by 0.11%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.65% to 4598.05 [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw declines of 0.20% and 0.53%, respectively [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Computer (1.67%), Defense and Military Industry (1.59%), Coal (1.32%), Communication (1.10%), and Real Estate (1.00%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceutical Biology (-1.73%), Banking (-1.31%), Non-Bank Financials (-1.11%), Building Materials (-0.93%), and Home Appliances (-0.84%) [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were related to Military Equipment Restructuring (4.72%), MLOps (3.42%), Web3.0 (3.10%), Digital Watermarking (2.71%), and Electronic ID (2.68%) [3] - The lagging concept indices included Cell Immunotherapy (-1.87%), Weight Loss Drugs (-1.87%), Innovative Drugs (-1.72%), Recombinant Proteins (-1.71%), and Fentanyl (-1.68%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but a gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals is anticipated in the fourth quarter, supported by policy measures [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as Banking, Non-Bank Financials, Transportation, Public Utilities, Coal, and TMT for potential investment opportunities [5] Water Conservation Industry - The water conservation industry in China is showing robust growth, with an estimated market size exceeding 760 billion yuan, driven by key regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [4][5] - The development of water-saving industrial parks and leading enterprises in agriculture, industry, and urban life is contributing to this growth [5]

Market Overview - On November 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.65%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.53%, while the CSI 1000 rose by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index also decreased by 0.71% [4][5]. - The best-performing sectors on November 17 included Computer (+1.67%), Defense and Military Industry (+1.59%), Coal (+1.32%), Communication (+1.1%), and Real Estate (+1%). The worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceutical and Biological (-1.73%), Banking (-1.31%), Non-Bank Financials (-1.11%), Building Materials (-0.93%), and Home Appliances (-0.84%) [4][5]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) with a focus on its capacity expansion towards 300 million tons, indicating a potential turnaround in the industry cycle. The company is expected to benefit from both internal expansion and external acquisitions, with coal prices anticipated to rebound [6]. - The target price for Yanzhou Coal is set at 18.9 CNY, representing a 29% upside from the current price [6]. - Revenue projections for Yanzhou Coal from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 130,266.60 million CNY, 170,012.53 million CNY, and 186,826.14 million CNY, with growth rates of -6.37%, 30.51%, and 9.89% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 10,017.42 million CNY, 15,232.49 million CNY, and 18,048.79 million CNY, with growth rates of -30.56%, 52.06%, and 18.49% respectively [6]. Industry Insights - The report highlights that the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector and the pharmaceutical industry have significantly contributed to the profitability of the STAR Market, with overall earnings improving compared to the mid-year reports [8]. - The rapid development of the AI industry, particularly in the upstream computing power segment, is driving growth in the technology sector, with notable increases in net profit for companies in computing, communication, and electronics [8][9]. - Approximately 80% of industries reported positive capacity expansion rates in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a favorable supply-demand outlook [9].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46% on November 17, with 17 industries experiencing gains, led by the computer and defense industries, which rose by 1.67% and 1.59% respectively [1] - The pharmaceutical and banking sectors had the largest declines, with drops of 1.73% and 1.31% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 31.953 billion yuan, with six industries seeing net inflows [1] - The computer industry had the highest net inflow of capital at 7.211 billion yuan, followed by the defense industry with 2.892 billion yuan [1] - A total of 25 industries experienced net capital outflows, with the pharmaceutical industry leading at 8.789 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 7.644 billion yuan [1] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector declined by 1.31% with a net outflow of 875 million yuan, out of 42 listed banks, only 2 saw gains while 40 experienced losses [2] - Among the banks, Minsheng Bank had the highest net inflow of 141 million yuan, followed by China Merchants Bank and Qilu Bank with inflows of 99.896 million yuan and 73.512 million yuan respectively [2] - The banks with the largest net outflows included Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, with outflows of 428 million yuan, 279 million yuan, and 134 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Bank Performance - The table of bank performance shows various banks' daily changes, turnover rates, and main capital flows, highlighting significant outflows from major banks [3] - Agricultural Bank of China saw a decline of 2.12% with a net outflow of 427.5 million yuan, while Minsheng Bank was the only bank to gain, increasing by 0.99% with a net inflow of 1.414 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new convertible bonds has been relatively low this year, with less than 50 bonds issued and a total scale of less than 500 billion, leading to a scarcity that has attracted market attention [12][14] - New bonds listed since July have closed above 140, indicating strong market demand, and the pricing strategy for new bonds is crucial for obtaining returns [2][12] - Two main strategies for institutions to gain returns from new bonds include buying on the second day after listing and participating in rights offerings [2][27] Market Review - The stock market has been experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index showing declines of 0.18% and 3.01% respectively, indicating a technical pressure around the 4000-point mark [34] - The consumer sector has shown strength, while technology stocks have faced significant pullbacks, influenced by CPI/PPI data and external market conditions [34][55] - The convertible bond market has seen a rise in the index, with the average transaction volume increasing, reflecting a high valuation environment [44][47] Convertible Bond Investment Strategy - The current valuation of convertible bonds is at a high level, with the average premium rate for bonds priced between 90-110 at approximately 30.06%, indicating limited upward momentum [47][55] - A neutral overall view is suggested, with a focus on trading opportunities as the premium rate approaches around 26% [55] - Specific sectors to watch include high-growth areas such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, battery storage, and military industries, as well as themes like AI computing and solid-state batteries [55] Primary Market Tracking - Recently, one new bond was issued, and several companies have received approvals for bond issuance, indicating ongoing activity in the convertible bond market [56][58]

Group 1 - The market theme today is related to the "Anti-Japanese" concept, with stocks like Furui Co. and Tianhe Defense ranking high in trading volume, while Ningde Times experienced a significant drop due to major shareholder reduction [1][2] - The performance of Japanese consumer stocks has been notably weak, with significant declines in companies like Isetan Mitsukoshi (-11.3%) and Muji (-9.4%), influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting tourism [13][15] - The A-share market is seeing a decrease in stock concentration, with small and micro-cap stocks performing better as the pressure from crowded trades diminishes [16][18] Group 2 - Ningde Times opened significantly lower, with a drop of nearly 5% at one point, attributed to a major shareholder's inquiry transfer at a discount of about 4% from the closing price [21][22] - The lithium battery sector remains a hot topic, with lithium carbonate futures hitting a 9% limit up, indicating a rebound in commodity prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics [29] - The global technology fund managed by Fu Guo has seen a key personnel change, with the departure of a well-regarded fund manager, which may impact investor sentiment but the fund's potential remains positive [32][33]

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results

室 坑车工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 时代小说书 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 关注军贸及消耗类武器, 配置周期 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 47 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 1.53%，同期上证综指下 ● 跌 0.18%, 沪深 300 下跌 1.08%, 创业板指下跌 3.01%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 27 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参 ...

Market Overview - On November 17, the market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to close at 3972.03 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw slight declines of 0.11% and 0.2% respectively. The total trading volume for both markets reached 1.91 trillion yuan [1]. AI Sector - The AI sector received significant attention with the launch of Alibaba's Qianwen App, which aims to compete directly with ChatGPT in the AI to C market. This app is expected to integrate various life scenarios, enhancing its utility [6]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) surged by 2.2%, driven by strong performance in AI applications and computing power sectors. Notable stocks in this sector included Dongfang Guoxin and BlueFocus, which rose over 10% [3][4]. Defense Industry - The defense and military sector saw a robust performance, with the National Defense and Military Industry ETF (512810) rising by 1.33%. Analysts expect that the "14th Five-Year Plan" related orders will gradually materialize, coupled with military trade catalysts, potentially leading to an upward trend in this sector [3][11]. - The ETF experienced significant trading activity, with a total volume of 997.4 million yuan, reflecting strong buying interest [9]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector showed resilience, with the Chemical ETF (516020) closing up by 1.08%. The sector is benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the lithium battery supply chain and refrigerant prices, which are expected to rise due to regulatory changes [12][14]. - Key stocks in the chemical sector, such as Salt Lake Shares and Multi-Fluorine, saw substantial gains, with increases exceeding 6% [12]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors with clear growth signals, such as AI applications and defense industries. The emphasis is on capturing opportunities in the AI narrative and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the market [3][11]. - The chemical sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, with a favorable valuation environment and expected improvements in overall supply-demand conditions [14][15].