Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Yaxia Hydropower Station indicates a clear trend of central government leverage, with expectations for a series of major projects and regional development strategies to stabilize overall infrastructure investment and total demand [1][2] Infrastructure Investment and Major Projects - The central government is expected to introduce significant projects and regional strategies to maintain infrastructure investment and total demand, especially in light of declining economic indicators such as fixed asset investment and real estate sales [2][6] - Key upcoming projects include major transportation initiatives like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and the New Tibet Railway, with substantial investments planned [6][10] Beneficiaries of Infrastructure Projects - Recommended beneficiaries include leading state-owned construction enterprises such as China Energy Engineering, China State Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from large-scale infrastructure projects [1][7] - Specific companies highlighted for their roles in construction and materials include China Communications Construction, China Railway Group, and regional players like Qing Song Jian Hua in Xinjiang [1][10] Canal Projects and Economic Impact - The development of major canal projects is anticipated to enhance logistics efficiency and stimulate economic growth, with significant investments planned for projects like the Pinglu Canal and the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal [11][14] - The estimated total investment for these canal projects is approximately 620.4 billion, which is expected to provide strong support for investment in 2023 [11][14] Xinjiang Regional Strategy and Coal Chemical Industry - The Xinjiang region is expected to receive increased support from the central government, with significant investments in coal chemical projects projected to exceed 800 billion by 2025 [16][19] - Key players in this sector include China Chemical Engineering and local construction firms, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated growth in coal chemical investments [16][19] Strategic Hinterland Development - Sichuan has been identified as a strategic hinterland for national development, with policies expected to support infrastructure and investment growth in the region [21][24] - Companies involved in transportation infrastructure, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, are likely to benefit from these strategic initiatives [21][24]

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results for such models or factors. The report primarily focuses on market analysis, index performance, valuation levels, and fund flows. Therefore, there are no quantitative models or factors to summarize based on the given content.

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the offshore RMB showing signs of breaking out against the USD. This is expected to create a bullish mid-term outlook for A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially aiming beyond the previous high of 3674 points set on October 8, 2024 [1][4][54] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to profit-taking, but key support levels such as recent short-term gaps and the 20-day moving average are expected to provide stability [1][4][54] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices collectively rose, with the STAR 50 leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 1.67%, 1.12%, and 1.69% respectively, while the STAR 50 surged by 4.63% [2][12] - The cyclical sector showed strong performance, with coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and construction leading the gains, rising by 8.00%, 7.55%, 7.10%, 6.44%, and 6.21% respectively [2][13][53] - Market sentiment improved significantly, with average daily trading volume rising to 1.83 trillion RMB, indicating increased investor activity [2][19] Fund Flow Analysis - The margin trading balance increased significantly to 1.94 trillion RMB, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.56% [2][28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 4.04 billion RMB, with infrastructure ETFs attracting the most inflow while securities ETFs experienced the largest outflow [2][28] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy of "1+1+X," focusing on large financial institutions (banks and brokerages) alongside sectors like military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [5][56] - In light of increased market risk appetite, a shift from large banks to smaller banks is recommended to enhance portfolio flexibility [5][56] - Continuous investment in brokerage firms is advised to mitigate upward risks, while switching from high-performing stocks to those near their annual moving averages is suggested [5][56]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from July 20th to July 26th, among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators in Guojin Securities' fixed - income fundamental monitoring system, the number of "bullish" and "bearish" indicators is 27 and 22 respectively. "Bullish" factors are mainly reflected in the start - up rates of most industries, real estate transaction areas, consumption, travel, exports, and most agricultural product prices, while "bearish" factors are mainly shown in coal consumption, crude steel production, real estate prices, industrial product inventory and demand, etc. [2][17] - The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal. [3][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Thermometer - **Overview**: Among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators, 27 are "bullish" and 22 are "bearish" for the bond market. [2][17] - **High - frequency Indicator Tracking**: - **Absolute Value Tracking**: Many indicators are monitored, such as economic growth (e.g., daily coal consumption and crude steel production), industrial production (e.g., start - up rates of various industries), real estate (e.g., housing and land transaction areas), infrastructure, inventory, consumption, travel, and inflation. The qualitative judgment for each indicator is provided, with some being "bullish" and some "bearish". [14] - **Monthly Year - on - Year Tracking**: Similar to the absolute value tracking, various economic aspects are covered, and the year - on - year changes and qualitative judgments for each indicator are presented. [16] 3.2 Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators - **Overview**: The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", with a proportion of 6/10. The US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal compared with last week. [3][19] - **Specific Indicators**: - **Enterprise Medium - and Long - Term Loan Balance Growth Rate**: 8.3%, lower than the previous value of 8.4%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Building Materials Composite Index**: 113.9, higher than the previous value of 111.3, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **BCI: Enterprise Recruitment Prospective Index**: 49.1%, lower than the previous value of 50.5%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Internet Search Index Year - on - Year (6MMA)**: 105.2%, lower than the previous value of 105.7%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **PMI New Export Orders Trend Value**: - 0.25%, lower than the previous value of - 0.24%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **PMI Supply - Demand Balance Trend Value**: 0.17%, higher than the previous value of 0.16%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Durable Goods Price**: 0.943, lower than the previous value of 0.944, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Bill Financing**: 14.7 trillion, lower than the previous value of 15.1 trillion, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **US Dollar Index**: 97.5, lower than the previous value of 98.4, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Copper - Gold Ratio**: 17.0, higher than the previous value of 16.6, "bearish". [3][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is driven by market sentiment, with prices fluctuating upward. Overall, steel itself may lack price drivers and will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term, following raw materials. If over - production verification is implemented, it may raise the price center of steel, while the disk profit will continue to shrink [1][7] - The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading, opportunistically intervening in positive spreads when the basis is low for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 211,960 tons (+2,900), and that of hot - rolled coil was 317,490 tons (-3,650). The daily average pig iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 242,230 tons (-210). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 30.2% (+1.6). Short - process steel production resumed due to full profit in off - peak electricity, and long - process steel profit increased to over 100, with pig iron production remaining high. The daily consumption of scrap steel increased to over 510,000 tons [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 216,580 tons (+10,410), and that for hot - rolled coil was 315,240 tons (-8,550). The apparent demand for building materials rebounded significantly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined seasonally. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in China from January to June decreased month - on - month, and the real estate market was still weak. The manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in production and exports, but the profit was shrinking. The home appliance industry entered the off - season, and the export situation might continue to decline [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 46,200 tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 22,500 tons in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 11,600 tons [4] - **Outlook**: The steel production reduction slowed down, rebar inventory decreased while hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The apparent demand for building materials rebounded, and market sentiment improved. The steel market will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro - policies [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3,410 yuan (+160), and in Beijing was 3,340 yuan (+150). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan (+130), and in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan (+200) [13] - **Profit**: The long - process steel profit increased to over 100. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace was - 23.75 yuan (+133), and the off - peak electricity profit was +141 yuan (+133) [4][29] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The National Energy Administration will conduct a coal production verification. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law. In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of M1 - M2 improved. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +2.8%, with a continued decline in growth rate [35][45] - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: In the US, the initial jobless claims decreased, and the manufacturing PMI remained stable. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization [4] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 242,230 tons (-210), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 30.2% (+1.6). The small - sample production of rebar was 211,960 tons (+2,900), and that of hot - rolled coil was 317,490 tons (-3,650) [65][69] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 216,580 tons (+10,410), and that for hot - rolled coil was 315,240 tons (-8,550). The construction material demand showed a certain recovery, and the cement usage also reflected the demand situation. The export of steel was still high, but the demand in the manufacturing off - season was under pressure [72][83] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 46,200 tons in total, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 22,500 tons in total [4]

Group 1 - Several foreign financial institutions and international investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China following the release of the second-quarter economic data [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.3 percentage points, while other institutions like UOB, Nomura, and Goldman Sachs raised their forecasts by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The strong performance of the industrial production sector, including electricity, construction, and manufacturing, has been a key driver of economic activity, maintaining growth for 15 consecutive months [4] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds from domestic goods trade remains high, with strong export data contributing positively [6] - Demand for Chinese exports from economies outside the United States has remained robust, supporting export scale and achieving a trade surplus in the first half of the year [7] - Continuous policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption and enhancing market confidence has been crucial in attracting foreign investment and adjusting growth expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is preparing to impose anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber, casting a shadow over Canada's attempts to negotiate a reduction in tariff threats [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dispute Background - The softwood lumber tariff dispute between Canada and the U.S. has become one of the longest-standing trade disputes between the two countries [4]. - For the past 25 years, the U.S. lumber industry has frequently sought to limit Canadian softwood imports through anti-subsidy and anti-dumping laws [4]. Group 2: Recent Developments - On July 25, the U.S. government announced the results of an anti-dumping investigation, determining that Canada was dumping softwood lumber and will impose anti-dumping duties on such imports [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce proposed significantly increasing the anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber earlier this year, which has raised concerns in the U.S. construction industry that relies on Canadian imports for about one-third of its lumber needs [4]. Group 3: Duty Rates and Economic Impact - The current anti-subsidy and anti-dumping duty rates on Canadian lumber are 14.5%, which may be increased to over 34.5% following a review by the U.S. Department of Commerce [4][5]. - As of April, the U.S. government had threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on lumber, although lumber was ultimately exempted from new tariffs [4].

美国各州将从美国联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）获得6.08亿美元，用于建造移民拘留中心。 ...

Group 1 - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, is implementing measures to gradually promote free preschool education [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is tightening restrictions on potential significant adverse impacts from peer competition on listed companies, enhancing the review responsibilities and decision-making requirements for related transactions [2] - According to Qunzhi Consulting, TV panel prices experienced a decline in July due to supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of a gradual stabilization starting in August [3] Group 2 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limits for lithium carbonate futures (LC2509), capping the daily opening position at 3,000 contracts, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has set a limit of 500 contracts for coking coal futures (JM2509) [4] - Bond funds may face significant redemption pressure, with over 200 billion yuan in various bonds sold in the first four days of the week, including nearly 100 billion yuan sold in a single day on July 24 [5] - China Fortune Securities plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] - China Duty Free Group reported a net profit of 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 20.81% [6] - Dongshan Precision plans to invest up to 1 billion USD in a high-end printed circuit board project through its subsidiary [6] - Huaitong Group, which has seen a surge in stock prices, clarified that it did not participate in the construction of the hydropower station project downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River [6] - Guangsheng Pharmaceutical's innovative hepatitis B treatment drug, Nairu Kewei GST-HG141, has successfully enrolled its first subject in a Phase III clinical trial [6]

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the registration of monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene at the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is actively promoting the research and listing of platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide futures, expected to launch this year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The number of ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in assets has surpassed 90, with the total ETF scale exceeding 4.6 trillion yuan, driven by thematic products in technology, dividends, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Bond funds are facing significant redemption pressure, with over 200 billion yuan in bond sales in the first four days of the week, including nearly 100 billion yuan in a single day [2] Group 3: Insurance Sector - The preset interest rate for traditional life insurance products has been lowered by 50 basis points to 2.0%, while the guaranteed interest rate cap for participating insurance has been reduced to 1.75% [3] Group 4: Company Performance - IMAX China reported a record 25 million moviegoers in the first half of 2025, generating approximately 416 million yuan in revenue, doubling the box office compared to the same period last year [4] - LVMH's net profit for the first half of 2025 fell by 22% to 5.7 billion euros, with a significant decline in sales in Japan due to currency appreciation [4] - Vanke has successfully sold the Shanghai Jinqiao Wanchuang Center project, with market speculation suggesting a transaction price of around 1.4 billion yuan [5] - China Communications Construction Company signed new contracts worth 991.05 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.14% [5] - Fudan Fuhua terminated the transfer of a 28% stake in a subsidiary due to a lack of interested buyers [6] - Feima International received 437 million yuan in performance compensation from its controlling shareholder [7] - Shanghai Construction Group reported a net profit of 710 million yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 14.04% [8] - Funi Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit of 1.337 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 12.48% [10] - Western Mining reported a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a growth of 15% [11] - Bomaike's net profit dropped by 80.42% to 12.39 million yuan in the first half of the year [12]