1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.43% to $9,678/ton, and SHFE copper主力 rose 0.46% to 78,260 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. US retail sales in June alleviated concerns about consumer spending contraction. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while domestic social copper inventories decreased. Copper demand showed a short - term recovery, but the off - season led to weak consumption. There is no significant positive factor for copper, and its price trend is unclear. A 50% copper tariff may cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Guinea's policy on bauxite raised cost concerns. Domestic factors and low inventory levels supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to remain strong, and trading within the 20,000 - level range is recommended. The off - season effect is more obvious for aluminum alloy [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.5% to $15,065/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.72% to 120,490 yuan/ton. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. In the stainless - steel industry, inventories of different series changed, and in the new - energy industry, demand and production increased slightly. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policy impacts should be watched out for [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases in LME and SHFE copper. The US economic data influenced the market. Inventory changes were mixed, with an increase in overseas and a decrease in domestic social inventories. Demand recovered slightly but was still weak due to the off - season. The price trend is unclear, and a potential tariff may cause volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: All aluminum - related products trended strongly. Cost concerns from Guinea's policy and domestic factors supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to be strong, and the off - season affects aluminum alloy more [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases in LME and沪镍. Inventory decreases in LME and SHFE. Changes in stainless - steel and new - energy industry inventories and production. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policies may cause disturbances [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, including flat - water copper, scrap copper, etc. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories. Changes in LME0 - 3 premium, CIF提单, and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Price decreases in various lead products. Inventory increases in LME and上期所. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price increases in无锡 and南海 aluminum quotes. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price decreases in金川镍 and some nickel - related products. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 rose 0.3%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 fell 0.7%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience, Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity atmosphere is warm, which provides support for metal prices, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to factors such as the US copper tariff and overseas trade uncertainties [2][4]. - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum are affected by inventory changes and industrial conditions; lead and zinc are influenced by supply and demand balances and macro - monetary policies; tin and nickel are affected by production and downstream demand; and the prices of lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also subject to various factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.43% to $9678/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78260 yuan/ton. The price oscillated and rebounded [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1150 to 122150 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 to 4.2 million tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere is warm, but the US copper tariff expectation brings risks. The copper raw material shortage persists, but the marginal impact weakens. The price rebound is expected to be weak. The operation range of SHFE copper is 77500 - 78800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9550 - 9760 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum rose 0.52% to $2589/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20520 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is warm, but overseas trade is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply is expected to increase. The short - term price increase drive is weak, and it mainly rebounds with the commodity atmosphere. The operation range of SHFE aluminum is 20300 - 20650 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2550 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 0.28% to 16864 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 12 to 1974 dollars/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus. The domestic lead price is expected to run weakly [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22109 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2697 dollars/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 9.35 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate due to the strong overall commodity atmosphere [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price oscillated [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the short - term tin price is expected to oscillate weakly. The operation range of domestic tin price is 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin price is 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price oscillated [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The ferro - nickel price is expected to follow the decline of the ore price. The nickel price has a certain short - selling cost - performance, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index rose 0.78%, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.32% [13]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The production increased by 1.6% to 19115 tons, and the inventory increased by 1.3% to 142620 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side disturbances are frequent. The operation range of the LC2509 contract is 66200 - 69500 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.48% to 3079 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The mineral price is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the alumina over - capacity pattern remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.47% to 12730 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 million tons [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Although it is the traditional off - season, the market activity has increased after the price bottomed out. The price is expected to rise slightly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.18% to 19845 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 0.03 million tons to 2.83 million tons [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The price has a large upward resistance [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, with the implementation date possibly from late July to August 1st. COMEX copper rose 16% due to this news. However, the US has filled its annual rigid import gap for electrolytic copper, so the CL spread doesn't need to fully price in the 50% tariff in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether some countries get exemptions. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to the demand situation and consider far - month inter - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation for zinc, hold inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - Nickel supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports was abolished, concerns about ore - end disturbances eased. Continue to focus on the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink [6] - Stainless steel supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10] - Lead prices slightly declined this week. Supply and demand are both weak in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price stays above 17,200 due to macro - factors [12] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance. Demand is weak, and the LME inventory is at a low level but a turning point for inventory accumulation is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng. The market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate doesn't recover significantly, the industrial silicon futures are expected to oscillate [18] - Carbonate lithium futures prices rebounded from a low level. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A significant downward trend requires a large - scale accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot inventory [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 50, the premium/discount changed by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons [1] - **Market Impact of Tariff**: The US has filled its annual rigid import gap for copper. The 50% tariff may not need to be fully priced in the CL spread in the short term. South American countries' copper exports may be affected, and the high - premium in Southeast Asia and Europe may decline. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,550 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are balanced [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 100, and the LME inventory increased by 2,750 tons [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,500, and the LME inventory increased by 708 tons [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [10] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the lead price slightly declined, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,850 tons [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in July, and it is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the tin price fluctuated widely, and the LME inventory increased by 55 tons [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance, and demand is weak [14] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by 100, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 43 [18] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng, and the market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the SMM electric carbonate price increased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 548 [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [20]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2-11.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.52% to 40.03%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.21-6.21 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.41% to 24.45% and a year-on-year growth of 9.92% to 31.01% [4][5]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in market prices for tin, copper, and zinc, alongside effective cost reduction measures and production optimization [4][5]. - The company plans to produce 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc in 2025, with Q1 production figures showing 24,200 tons of tin, 24,400 tons of copper, and 33,300 tons of zinc [5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 48.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.21%. The projected revenues for 2026 and 2027 are 51.90 billion yuan and 54.68 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.32% and 5.36% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 23.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.86%. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 25.50 billion yuan and 27.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.45% and 7.36% [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.55 yuan in 2026 and 1.66 yuan in 2027 [6][10]. Market Conditions - The report notes that while there may be short-term supply disruptions, the long-term price trend for tin is expected to rise due to ongoing demand from the semiconductor industry, which is projected to grow at around 11% globally [6][10]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan to protect shareholder interests, indicating confidence in future growth [5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses a mining company involved in copper, lead, and zinc production, with a focus on their operational performance and production plans for the year. Key Points and Arguments Production and Sales Performance - The company reported a stable mineral production output, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in production from Qianxin, which is primarily sourced from Inner Mongolia's Xibu Copper Industry and Huokqi Copper Mine [1] - In Q1, the copper-gold mine production reached 26% of the annual target, indicating a potential to exceed the previously set goal of 168,000 tons for the year, despite a planned reduction of 10,000 tons compared to last year [3] - The company plans to conduct major maintenance in December, which is typically the month with the most adverse mining conditions [4] Financial Performance and Challenges - The copper smelting segment is under pressure, with processing fees currently negative at $30, leading to a loss in Q1 despite an increase in profits compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company aims to reduce losses in the copper smelting segment by improving raw material structure and increasing procurement of lower-cost mixed ores [7] - The overall processing fees for domestic copper are lower than imported copper, with processing costs ranging from 4,800 to 5,300 [9] Raw Material Supply and Procurement - The company anticipates a stable supply of raw materials, with a significant portion of lead and zinc needing to be sourced externally due to insufficient internal production [12][13] - The supply of new raw materials is expected to improve compared to previous years, with lower procurement difficulties noted [13] Cost Management and Future Outlook - The complete cost of copper and lead production is reported to be stable, with expectations of cost reductions as new projects come online [16][17] - The company is focusing on internal management improvements and cost reduction strategies to enhance profitability in the coming year [8] Project Developments - The company is progressing on the Phase III expansion project at Yulong Copper Mine, expected to be completed by late next year, with a short production ramp-up time anticipated [22][23] - The total investment for the project is estimated at 5 billion, with cash flow management indicating that the company can handle the financial burden over the next few years [23] Miscellaneous - The company has experienced a return to asset impairment of 60 million, primarily due to previous inventory adjustments, but expects this to be less significant than last year [20] - The company is actively engaging in exploration and resource expansion as a key focus area for future growth [24] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is not currently signing long-term contracts for processing fees, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations [9] - The Q1 performance of the company shows a cumulative revenue of 3.1 billion with a profit of 1.89 billion, reflecting a strong operational performance despite market challenges [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal ratings include: Copper - "震荡" (Oscillation); Alumina - "震荡" (Oscillation); Aluminum - "短期仓单数量和累库仍需观察，预计价格区间震荡；中长期消费仍有隐忧，视库存和升贴水拐点区间思路偏逢高空" (Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points); Aluminum Alloy - "震荡" (Oscillation); Zinc - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Lead - "震荡" (Oscillation); Nickel - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Stainless Steel - "震荡" (Oscillation); Tin - "震荡" (Oscillation) [1][5][6][9][10][13][14][16][17][20][21] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff game continues, and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus is increasing. Overall, the macro - expectation is volatile, and non - ferrous metals will continue to oscillate. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of basic metals are gradually seasonally loosening, and domestic inventories are gradually rising seasonally. In the short - to medium - term, tariff uncertainty and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Focus on structural opportunities, cautiously consider short - term long positions in aluminum and tin on dips, and short zinc ingots on rallies. In the long - term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and shorting opportunities on rallies for some varieties with excess or expected excess supply and demand can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The time for the US copper tariff to take effect may be advanced, and the price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper has led to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices. The US Secretary of Commerce said the tariff may be implemented at the end of the month, weakening the siphon effect on copper in the US and alleviating the tight supply - demand situation in non - US regions, putting pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper ore processing fees continue to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. The demand is weakening as the consumption off - season approaches. Domestic and foreign inventories are accumulating again, and the risk of LME squeeze has eased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, but demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. It is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [5][6] 3.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Market rumors suggest that the mining permit issue has eased, and the alumina futures price has declined. - **Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and operating capacity and inventories are gradually rising. The Guinean government's new policies may increase corporate costs and affect the bottom - line expectation of ore prices. - **Outlook**: Cautious reverse arbitrage [6] 3.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory has significantly accumulated, and aluminum prices have declined under pressure. - **Logic**: The short - term tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, but there is still strong uncertainty. The fundamentals have shown marginal weakening signs, with inventory accumulation, spot discounts, and a decrease in the risk of near - month squeeze. - **Outlook**: Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points [9] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and the futures price has corrected. - **Logic**: Short - term, ADC12 faces a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, while demand is in the off - season. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 is expected to rise in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate at low levels, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [10][12] 3.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are in excess, and zinc prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the prices of black - series products are rebounding. The supply of zinc ore is loosening in the short - term, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and demand expectations are general. Zinc ingot inventories are accumulating, and the support for zinc prices is weakening. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will continue to increase, and downstream demand will enter the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14] 3.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the discount has narrowed, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. On the demand side, the off - season has not completely passed, but the start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories is higher than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: The US tariff suspension period is postponed to August 1st, but the announced tariffs are high, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the start - up rate of battery factories is recovering. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost support of recycled lead is stable, and lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15][16] 3.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports, and nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may loosen. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The inventory has significantly accumulated, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports to Indonesia. Nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term, and long - term trends need further observation [16][17][18] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to weaken, and the stainless - steel futures price is running weakly. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Although the futures price is rising, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In terms of supply and demand, stainless - steel production decreased in June but remained at a high level historically. As demand exits the peak season, there is a risk of weakening demand. Inventory has decreased, and the pressure of structural surplus has been alleviated. - **Outlook**: The weakening cost weakens the support for steel prices, but beware of the possibility of an expanded scale of production cuts due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. The demand side is putting pressure on steel prices as it exits the traditional peak season. Focus on inventory changes and cost changes in the future. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short - term [20] 3.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Logic**: The shortage of domestic tin ore is intensifying, and the replacement of Indonesian refined tin export licenses has brought new supply problems. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, strengthening the bottom support for tin prices. However, the impact of the short - term interruption of Indonesian exports may be limited, and the terminal demand for tin will weaken marginally in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: The tightness of the ore end supports the tin price. Whether the tightness at the ore end can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of the tin price in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is affected by the 50% tariff on US copper imports announced by Trump. The US copper inventory is high, and the CL spread does not need to fully price the 50% tariff in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the exemption situation of some countries, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1]. - The aluminum supply increases slightly, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to the demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates widely. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is seasonally weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc, hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to positive spreads between months [2]. - The nickel supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is mixed. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban plan, the short - term fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [7]. - The stainless - steel supply has been reduced, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - The lead price has a slight correction. The supply and demand are both weak, and the market's peak - season expectation needs to be verified. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week [13]. - The tin price fluctuates widely. The supply may decline slightly, the demand is expected to slow down, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. - The production of industrial silicon may decline, the supply and demand are expected to shift to destocking, and the price is expected to oscillate if the start - up rate does not recover significantly [19]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded from a low level. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with a downward inflection point depending on significant inventory accumulation [21]. Summary by Metal Copper - The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the annual rigid import gap. The CL spread does not need to fully price the 50% tariff in the short - term [1]. - If South American countries are not exempted from the tariff, it will seriously impact their copper exports, especially Chile and Peru. The logistics of incremental exports to the US may shift to Asia and Europe [1]. - After the tariff is implemented, the copper siphoning and rush - shipping effects in the US will end, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - Supply has a slight increase from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. Zinc - In July, domestic TC has increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and imported TC has a slight increase. The zinc ingot output is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons [2]. - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is also weak, but there are some production resistances for some refineries [2]. - Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May, with a risk of a short squeeze when the inventory is below 100,000 tons [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak overall, and LME premiums have a slight increase [7]. - Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has a slight decrease. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban plan, short - term fundamentals are average [7]. Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have reduced production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost is stable [11]. - Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. Lead - The lead price has a slight correction. The supply side has issues such as low scrap battery recovery and tight raw materials, and the demand side has high battery inventory and weak start - up rates [13]. - The market's peak - season expectation needs to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate within the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week [13]. Tin - The tin price fluctuates widely. The domestic smelting output may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance [15]. - The demand is expected to slow down, with a decline in the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics. Domestic inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level but showing signs of accumulation [15]. Industrial Silicon - The overall production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline due to the significant reduction in production by Hesheng. The supply and demand are expected to shift to destocking [19]. - The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating downstream speculative and restocking sentiment. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price has rebounded from a low level due to factors such as warehouse receipts, supply - side news, and improved weak - demand expectations [21]. - The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate, with a downward inflection point depending on significant inventory accumulation [21].