房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工作 会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供 给、提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段—— "十五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今年以来单月投资降幅持续扩大——房地产 行业 2025 年 9 月统计局数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大，二手房持平；时 隔一年再度出现所有城市二手房房价全部下跌的情 形——房地产行业 2025 年 9 月 70 个大中城市房价 数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 所有 70 城二手房房价连续三个月下跌；一线城市房价 环比跌幅扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份 70 个大中城市 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic operation in November continued to be stable, with the national industrial added value above designated size increasing by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4,389.8 billion yuan, increasing by 1.3% year - on - year and decreasing by 0.42% month - on - month [1] - China has issued the first batch of L3 - level conditional autonomous driving vehicle access permits, marking a key step in the commercialization of L3 - level autonomous driving [1] - The goal is to cultivate service outsourcing leading enterprises and build service outsourcing clusters by 2030, with further improvement in the development level of service outsourcing [1] Summary by Directory Upstream - Energy: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices dropped significantly. On December 15, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $57.4 per barrel, down 4.39%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was $61.1 per barrel, down 4.13%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,652 yuan per ton, down 5.73% [2][36] - Agriculture: Palm oil prices declined slightly. On December 15, the spot price of palm oil was 8,504 yuan per ton, down 1.44% [2][36] Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester declined. On December 15, the spot price of PTA was 4,649.7 yuan per ton, down 0.81% [3][36] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants increased [3] - Infrastructure: The construction of road asphalt was in the off - season [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities increased [4] - Service: Flight frequencies and movie box office decreased [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Key Focus**: Economic indicators and policy outlook for 2026 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Weakness**: Domestic economic indicators showed unexpected weakness in November, with retail sales increasing only 1.3% YoY, and investment contraction continuing at double digits, marking the lowest levels since the COVID outbreak in 2020 [1][4][15] 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, the slowest pace since August 2024, indicating pressure on the supply side despite a rebound in exports [4][24] 3. **Investment Trends**: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) growth was weaker than expected at -2.6% YoY YTD, with property investment contracting further to -29.9% YoY, indicating a deepening property downturn [15][18] 4. **Retail Sales Dynamics**: Retail sales growth has decelerated for six consecutive months, primarily due to the fading impact of trade-in subsidies and a higher base from the previous year [11][12] 5. **Policy Response**: Policymakers have committed to measured support for 2026, with expectations of front-loaded policies, including property support measures and potential rate cuts in January [6][10] 6. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5%, with incremental fiscal funds of approximately RMB 1 trillion, likely a ceiling based on leadership tone [6][10] Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence has declined, reflecting the overall economic sentiment and potential impacts on future spending [18] 2. **Sector Performance**: While exports-oriented sectors showed some resilience, domestic demand weakness has eroded their strength, particularly in the automotive sector [28] 3. **Service Sector Stability**: Retail services sales remained stable, with a slight increase of 5.4% YoY in the first 11 months of 2025, indicating some resilience in service consumption [11] 4. **Trade-in Subsidies Impact**: The impact of trade-in subsidies has faded, contributing to a significant decline in auto sales by -8.3% YoY, which was the largest drag on overall retail sales [11][12] 5. **Investment in Manufacturing**: Manufacturing investment showed early signs of stabilization, with a cumulative reading of 1.9% YoY YTD, although monthly contraction narrowed to -4.5% YoY [27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese economy, highlighting both challenges and potential policy responses moving into 2026.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the implications of recent monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve and the economic work conference in China, focusing on the financial markets, particularly the Hong Kong, U.S., and A-share markets. Core Insights and Arguments Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a hawkish rate cut and a $40 billion expansion of its balance sheet aimed at addressing liquidity issues in the repo market, rather than initiating quantitative easing (QE) [1][2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates only one rate cut in 2026, which is lower than market expectations, suggesting a cautious approach to future monetary policy [2] - The new Fed chair nominee, Set, is perceived as dovish, which could lead to lower long-term interest rates [2] Economic Conditions in China - The Chinese economic work conference indicates a weakening stance in fiscal and monetary policy, with a shift towards cross-cycle policies rather than total volume policies [1][3] - The credit cycle in China may be at a turning point, with weak domestic demand and real estate market challenges expected to persist into 2026 [1][3] Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks outperformed in Q1 2025 due to internet asset revaluation but lagged behind A-shares and U.S. stocks since November, influenced by external factors like Fed rate cuts and local economic conditions [1][4] - The fourth quarter saw Hong Kong stocks underperform due to liquidity sensitivity and a lack of optimistic external and internal funding factors [1][6] Investment Strategies - Future market allocation strategies should consider liquidity, fundamentals, and structural advantages across the U.S., Hong Kong, and A-share markets [1][5] - The outlook for the three markets suggests that while U.S. stocks have room for growth, Hong Kong requires cautious observation due to uncertainties, and A-shares have advantages under domestic policy support [5][9] Economic Signals and Policy Directions - The economic work conference highlighted the need for policies to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic consumption, with a focus on balancing internal and external demands [12][11] - Fiscal policy is expected to shift from investment to consumption and livelihood, with an emphasis on stimulating domestic demand [12][15] Future Market Outlook - The anticipated economic recovery in the U.S. and the potential for a prolonged bull market depend on the interplay of liquidity, economic fundamentals, and structural market characteristics [24][25] - The Japanese central bank's expected rate hike is aimed at curbing yen depreciation and is not anticipated to cause significant market volatility due to prior market pricing [26][28] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The conference discussed the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, policy signals, and investor behavior to assess market peaks and potential risks [20][21] - The potential for breaking the bull-bear cycle hinges on the demand for high-return assets and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows into the stock market [25][34] - Japan's fiscal health is projected to remain stable despite rising interest rates, with tax revenue growth expected to outpace interest expenses [35]

Group 1 - Xinghua New Materials signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangdong Guoteng Quantum Technology Co., Ltd. to establish a long-term partnership in quantum technology and related applications [1] - Guangzhou Development's subsidiary plans to invest 583 million yuan in the construction of the Xiushan Phase II photovoltaic project, with a planned installed capacity of 150MW/205MWp [2] - Siyuan Electric intends to apply for the issuance of H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] Group 2 - Changqing Group announced the termination of the share transfer agreement involving its controlling shareholder and actual controller [4] - Alter Technology signed a termination agreement with HDI regarding the procurement of hybrid power transmission products, originally valued at no less than 1.451 billion yuan [5] - Fumiao Technology plans to increase capital by 70 million yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary to transform it into a comprehensive water treatment service provider [6] Group 3 - Falunsheng clarified that its main business does not involve controllable nuclear fusion, superconductivity, or commercial aerospace [7] - Feiwo Technology stated that its business in the commercial aerospace sector is in the early stages and currently contributes less than 1% to its main revenue [8] - Cangzhou Mingzhu announced a change in control with Guangzhou Light Industry Group acquiring 10.1% of its shares for 710 million yuan [10] Group 4 - Zhongwen Online plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11] - Northern Huachuang's actual controller intends to transfer 2% of the company's shares to Guoxin Investment at a price of 426.39 yuan per share [12] - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary signed an exclusive licensing agreement for the GenSci098 injection project, with potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.365 billion dollars [13] Group 5 - Dongfang Garden plans to acquire 100% of Haicheng Ruihai and 80% of Electric Investment Ruixiang for cash [14] - China Unicom's subsidiary plans to invest 1 billion yuan in the Cheng Tong Science and Technology (Jiangsu) Fund, focusing on strategic emerging industries [15] - Shen Gong Co. announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.98% of the company's shares [16] Group 6 - Tongcheng Holdings plans to transfer 114 million shares of Hunan Changyin 58 Consumer Finance Co., Ltd. for 215 million yuan [17] - Shifeng Culture announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares [19] - Pinao's actual controller changed to Yin Jiayin, and the stock will resume trading [20] Group 7 - Changchuan Technology plans to acquire 33.33% of Hangzhou Changchuan Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [21] - Huafa Co. announced changes in the use of raised funds, reallocating 838 million yuan to the Shaoxing Financial Vitality City project [22] - Liansheng Technology's actual controller is set to change to Wang Xin [23] Group 8 - ST Mingjia announced a capital reserve conversion plan, increasing its total share capital to 1.426 billion shares [24] - Kangsi Technology stated that orders from SpaceX for calibration testing products have a limited impact on its performance [25] - Unigroup Guowei established a central research institute focusing on AI chip architecture and algorithms for various applications [26] Group 9 - Shanghai Electromechanical conducted its first share buyback, acquiring 0.0142% of its shares for a total of 21.31 million USD [28] - Digital Vision plans to repurchase shares worth between 80 million and 120 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans [29] - Decai Co. announced that a shareholder plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares [30]

研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 11 月经济数据继续走弱，内需不足是主要制约 ——11 月宏观数据分析 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 对此，我们认为，需要理性客观的看待当前宏观经济，房地产市场的转型 调整、见底回升尚需时间，国内经济的复苏不能一蹴而就。当前外部不稳定不 确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。这要求实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 未来，"扩内需、反内卷"仍将是长期的、重要的政策抓手。当前金融市 场处在"弱现实、强预期"状态，市场情绪持续好转。尽管节奏上充满波折， 2025 年宏观经济和资产价格，均有望延续向上修复的整体趋势，在此过程中需 保持耐心。 一、制造业 PMI 环比回升，但仍低于荣枯线 11 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分 点，景气水平有所改善。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点，低于临界点；中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 48.9%和 49.1% ...

Macro Economic Outlook - The economic momentum in China is weakening, with November economic indicators falling below market expectations, indicating a further decline in economic activity [2] - Retail sales growth dropped to a post-pandemic low, significantly affected by high base effects and demand exhaustion from old-for-new subsidies, particularly in durable goods like home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [2] - Fixed asset investment growth has sharply declined, with real estate investment hitting a historical low, and both manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth continuing to slow [2] - A comprehensive decline in the real estate market, durable goods consumption, and new household loans suggests weakening terminal demand, forecasting a sluggish economic growth momentum into Q1 2026 [2] - GDP growth is expected to fall from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, potentially triggering a new round of policy easing, including a 50 basis point RRR cut and a 10 basis point LPR cut in Q1 2026 [2] Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,629, down 1.34% for the day but up 27.76% year-to-date [2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also experienced slight declines of 0.16% and 0.59% respectively, while the DAX and CAC indices saw minor gains [2] - The performance of the Chinese stock market was characterized by declines in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors, while consumer staples, utilities, and financials outperformed [4] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is projected to maintain four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation and mergers [5] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 26% year-on-year to reach $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth, particularly logic chips and memory chips [5] - Notable stock performances include Zhongji Xuchuang with a year-to-date increase of 407%, Shengyi Technology at 172%, and Northern Huachuang at 64.9% [5]

2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大。 一、一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降 11月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，上海上 涨0.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.5%、0.5%和0.9%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比分 别下降0.3%和0.4%，降幅均收窄0.1个百分点。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。其中，北京、上 海、广州和深圳分别下降1.3%、0.8%、1.2%和1.0%。二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅 与上月相同。三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅收窄0.1个百分点。 二、一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅扩大 11月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点。其中，上海上 涨5.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降2.1%、4.3%和3.7%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分 别下降2.2%和3.5%，降幅分别扩大0.2个和0.1个百分点。 11月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同 ...

昨日，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付 凌晖表示，11月份国民经济稳中有进。 "11月份我国国民经济运行呈现出生产端稳健、需求端分化的态势。"海通期货研究所宏观策略组研究员 纪丫告诉期货日报记者，11月，规上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，其中装备制造业和高技术制造业增速 显著更快，成为重要驱动力，需求侧则表现不一：市场消费维持一定韧性，社会消费品零售总额同比增 长1.3%，服务消费和线上零售增长较快，但增速仍显温和；固定资产投资维持承压态势，11月同比下 降11.5%，主要受房地产市场深度调整的拖累，房地产投资同比下跌30%。 "尽管社会消费品零售总额增速受基数影响有所波动，但升级类商品消费保持活跃，服务零售额持续较 快增长，反映消费结构优化和内需潜力释放，新质生产力培育步伐加快。"建信期货宏观研究员冯泽仁 说。 ...

Group 1: National Policies and Economic Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds in 2024 to support consumer subsidies for vehicle trade-ins and related appliances, with an additional 3 billion yuan expected in 2025 [2] - The "national subsidy" policy has positively impacted domestic consumption over the past two years, with consumer goods trade-ins generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales from January to November, benefiting over 360 million people [2] - The coverage of the "national subsidy" policy is expected to continue expanding, particularly for durable consumer goods like refrigerators and televisions [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - In November, the sales prices of new residential properties in major cities showed a month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities down 0.4% and second and third-tier cities down 0.3% and 0.4% respectively [4] - The introduction of "home purchase interest subsidies" in several cities has led to a short-term increase in new home transactions by over 15% [4] - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with second-hand homes showing stronger sales performance compared to new homes due to price reductions by individual landlords [4][5] Group 3: Industrial Growth and Economic Indicators - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [6] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as 3D printing and industrial robotics, saw significant growth, with production increasing by 100.5% and 20.6% respectively [6] - The overall industrial growth rate is being constrained by weak demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, leading to a cautious economic recovery [6] Group 4: Corporate Debt and Financial Challenges - Vanke's attempt to extend the maturity of a 2 billion yuan bond faced obstacles, as none of the proposed extension plans received the required 90% approval from bondholders [7][8] - The company is at risk of default if an agreement is not reached within the grace period following the bond's maturity [7] - Vanke's financial struggles are compounded by reduced support from state-owned shareholders, indicating a challenging path ahead for the company [8] Group 5: Technology and Market Developments - iRobot has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, facing significant financial difficulties with liabilities exceeding 500 million dollars and cash reserves of only 24.8 million dollars [9][10] - The company, once a leader in the robotic vacuum market, has struggled to keep up with competitors offering better technology at lower prices [10] - Samsung is in discussions with AMD regarding potential collaboration on 2nm chip manufacturing, aiming to enhance its position in the high-end semiconductor market [11]