Core Viewpoint - The bond market shows a divergence in performance, with long-term bonds rebounding significantly while mid-term bonds remain stable, indicating a "long strong, short weak" trend in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - The closing performance of government bond futures was mixed, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.42% to 114.96, while the 2-year and 5-year contracts both fell by 0.01% [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.35 basis points to 1.755% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.72% to 478.72 points, with significant declines in several convertible bonds [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.37 basis points to 4.032% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, while European bond yields, including French and German bonds, generally decreased [4]. Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had lower winning yields than the market estimates, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4929%, 1.7313%, and 1.9749% respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 2360 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3760 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The financial statistics report for the first three quarters showed a cumulative social financing scale exceeding 30 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.42 trillion yuan [6]. Institutional Insights - Financial data for September was generally in line with expectations, indicating weak demand in the real economy, with a forecast for a seasonal decline in social financing growth starting in October [8]. - The government bond issuance is expected to slow down, impacting overall financing, while policy financial tools are anticipated to support fixed investment in the fourth quarter [8].

Core Insights - The current bond market is experiencing a bottom consolidation for 5-year and 10-year government bonds, while the ultra-long end is still in the process of clearing last chips, leading to a lag in stabilization for the ultra-long end compared to the medium and short ends. Investors are advised to strategically position in 5-10 year mid-long term varieties while waiting for signals of redemption disturbances to ease and risk appetite to decline [1][2][32] Historical Context - Historical instances of "medium-short end stabilizing first, ultra-long end lagging in decline" provide insights into the current bond market. Notable periods include September 2013 during the "money shortage," May 2020 at the onset of "bond bull to bear," and November 2022 during the "redemption wave" [1][2][9] Market Dynamics - The core driving forces behind the current market dynamics can be summarized as: "short end driven by liquidity, long end driven by supply, and ultra-long end driven by the last chips." The market since August 2025 is replicating this script, with the "chips" now being influenced by new fund fee regulations and cautious sentiment under rising risk appetite [2][32] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to focus on the 5-10 year mid-long term bonds as the ultra-long end continues to clear out last chips. The recommendation is to wait for signs of easing redemption disturbances and a decline in risk appetite before making significant moves [1][2][32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On September 29, the overall capital market showed a complex situation. The capital side was generally stable and balanced, but the cross - quarter capital price was high. The bond market continued to be weak, while the convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies also generally declined. At the same time, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments are about to be launched, which will promote economic development [1][13][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Politburo meeting decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee would be held from October 20th to 23rd. A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital. The trading association will improve the evaluation criteria for lead underwriters [3][4]. - **International News**: A Federal Reserve official is worried about the inflation outlook and believes that the current monetary policy is only "moderately restrictive" and needs to maintain a restrictive policy stance [6]. - **Commodities**: On September 29, international crude oil futures prices fell, while international natural gas prices rose significantly. Gold futures also rose [7]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations**: On September 29, the central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 48.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On September 29, the capital side was generally stable and balanced, but the cross - quarter capital price was high. DR001 declined by 0.23 bp, and DR007 increased by 3.17 bp [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: On September 29, the bond market continued to be weak. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose by 0.75 bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 rose by 2.50 bp [13]. - **Credit Bonds**: On September 29, there were abnormal transactions in the secondary market of credit bonds. Some industrial and urban investment bonds had price deviations of more than 10%. There were also some credit bond events, such as tax enforcement against Rongqiao Group and loan extension for Shimao Group [14][16]. - **Convertible Bonds**: On September 29, the three major A - share indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed the rise. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased. Most convertible bond issues rose, with some rising significantly and some falling [17]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On September 29, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally declined, and the yield spreads of some maturities narrowed. The break - even inflation rate of 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury bonds (TIPS) declined [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 29, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally declined [23]. - **Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The prices of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds showed different changes on September 29, with some rising and some falling [25].

Report Information - Report Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.034%, 4.674%, 3.478% respectively [3] - Latest changes were all 0.000%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly variations differing across countries [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.480%, 3.952%, 1.957% respectively [3] - Latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly variations varied by country [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On October 15, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc., were 5.521, 108.000, 17.505 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes varying [3] Credit Bond Indices - On October 15, 2025, US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, etc., indices were 3529.690, 265.945, etc. respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3912.21, 4606.29, 3001.35 respectively [5] - Percentage changes in prices were 1.22%, 1.48%, 1.36% respectively [5] Valuation - PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 14.31, 11.95, 34.70 respectively [5] -环比 changes were 0.17, 0.11, 0.43 respectively [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38 respectively [5] -环比 changes were all 0.00 [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, etc., were 535.21, 302.49, - 56.21 respectively [5] - 5 - day average values were - 543.77, - 301.19, - 56.21 respectively [5] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 20728.59, 6073.26, 1571.06 respectively [5] -环比 changes were - 5033.74, - 2016.33, - 620.88 respectively [5] Main Premium/Discount - Basis of IF, IH, IC were - 29.89, - 3.95, - 153.80 respectively [5] - Magnitudes were - 0.65%, - 0.13%, - 2.11% respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Percentage Changes - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.130, 105.730, 107.815, 105.635 respectively [6] - Percentage changes were 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.11%, 0.09% respectively [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3519%, 1.4694%, 1.5810% respectively [6] - Daily changes (BP) were - 12.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [6]

Group 1 - The bond market is currently viewed neutrally, but there are signs of marginal improvement [1] - Concerns about the economic outlook in China have been reignited due to tariff disruptions, with recent financial, consumption, and real estate data being less optimistic [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond has fallen below 1.75%, breaking previous lows [1] Group 2 - Short-term and long-term interbank funding rates have also declined, reflecting the central bank's supportive stance [1] - However, these improvements have not yet formed a clear trend, suggesting that investors should continue to monitor the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market faced overall pressure in Q3, with a significant "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds. In July, the bond market was under pressure due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and expectations of new policies, while commodities and the stock market rose. In August, the "anti-involution" trading cooled down, commodity prices fell, but the stock market remained strong, leading to further weakness in the bond market. In September, the stock market experienced high volatility, and futures bonds fluctuated widely [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, a marginal improvement of 0.4 percentage points from August, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity. The production index rose to 51.9%, the highest in nearly six months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, suggesting improved market demand. The new export orders index also saw a recovery, rising by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8% [2][3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Dynamics - The factory price index continued to contract, while the raw material purchase price index remained in the expansion zone, indicating pressure on corporate profit margins. In September, the raw material inventory index rose to 48.5%, reflecting proactive stocking behavior driven by production expansion. The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%. Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises showed slight declines [3] Group 4: Trade Performance - In September, exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports increased by 7.4%, also exceeding forecasts. The growth in exports was primarily driven by non-U.S. markets, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN and the EU. The structure of exports improved, with mechanical and electrical products maintaining a stable share of over 60% [4] Group 5: Outlook for Q4 - Looking ahead to Q4, despite challenges such as high base effects and trade frictions, exports are expected to maintain positive growth supported by demand from ASEAN, the EU, and Africa. The overall bond market is entering a phase of clearing negative sentiment, but a trend-driven market will depend on renewed expectations for monetary easing. The current economic fundamentals remain resilient, limiting the likelihood of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year yield rising slightly while the 2-year yield showed a more significant increase, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.57 basis points, closing at 4.0378% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 2.08 basis points, reaching 3.5014% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes decreased by 1.506 basis points, now at +53.429 basis points [1] Group 2: Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - The 10-year TIPS yield increased by 1.12 basis points, now at 1.7349% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield rose by 2.28 basis points, reaching 1.0051% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield saw an increase of 0.60 basis points, now at 2.4126% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on October 15, with government bond futures mostly declining and interbank bond yields rising slightly, indicating a mixed response to inflation data and ongoing monetary policy considerations [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.14% at 114.58, the 10-year main contract down 0.06% at 108.130, and the 5-year main contract down 0.03% at 105.73 [2]. - The average yield on interbank major bonds increased by approximately 0.5 basis points, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.7575% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.49% to 482.17 points, with notable gainers including Yong02 Convertible Bond and Zhongchong Convertible Bond, which increased by 8.46% and 6.40% respectively [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 4.028% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2634% and 1.3487%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.37 and 2.17 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 435 billion yuan reverse repo operation on October 15, maintaining a stable liquidity environment with a fixed rate of 1.40% [6]. - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a 6-month term to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable consumption market [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions like Dongfang Jincheng and Huachuang Securities noted that the central bank's actions to inject medium-term liquidity through reverse repos are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment and supporting government bond issuance [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted a potential increase in liquidity due to the natural maturity of previously purchased government bonds, suggesting a gradual reintroduction of government bond trading [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market was consolidating at a high level. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Market and the Enterprise Bond Market both ended the impact of the restart of IPO on the bond market. In the short term, the CPI is still in a deep negative growth range, and the slowdown of bank credit has increased the demand for bonds, keeping the bond market at a high level. However, in the long run, the bond market faces challenges such as the restart of IPO and inflation [1][12]. - The significant increase in US Treasury yields is a warning for Chinese bond investments. Although the current CPI is still low, the expectation of subsequent increase is gradually strengthening. Inflation will come sooner or later due to the large - scale liquidity [2][14]. - The domestic economic downward pressure is large, and the foreign economic situation remains sluggish. The country is taking measures to expand domestic demand, stabilize foreign demand, and continue to support the economy through finance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - **Domestic Economy**: There are some positive changes in China's economic operation, but the foundation is not stable. In April, the year - on - year decline in social electricity consumption increased to 3.63% from 2.01% in March. From January to April, the industrial profits of 22 regions decreased by 27.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter. The country is now emphasizing both domestic and foreign demand [3]. - **Foreign Economy**: The United Nations predicts that the global economic growth in 2009 will be - 2.6%, significantly lower than the initial forecast of - 0.5%. The US economy has declined for three consecutive quarters, with a 5.7% decline in the first quarter of this year. Many economic fields in the US are still deteriorating [3]. Central Bank Dynamics - **Monetary Policy**: There was no relevant information on monetary policy trends last Wednesday [4]. - **Open Market Operations**: Last week, the net investment was + 800 million yuan, with 800 million yuan in positive repurchases, 650 million yuan in maturing central bank bills, and 950 million yuan in maturing positive repurchases [6]. Money Market - **Shibor Interest Rates**: On May 31, Shibor interest rates showed mixed changes, with the 1 - day and 7 - day lending rates remaining below 1%, indicating a relatively loose capital supply. The long - term lending rates slightly rebounded [6][7]. - **Pledged Repurchase Rates**: On May 31, the pledged repurchase rates in the inter - bank bond market changed slightly, with the 1 - day and 7 - day repurchase rates showing small declines and the trading volume also decreasing [9]. - **Inter - bank Lending Rates**: On May 31, the average overnight lending rate was 0.8146%, and the 7 - day lending rate was 0.9560%. The 21 - day lending rate increased by 99BP [11]. Weekly Market Review - From May 25 - 27, due to holidays, there were only three trading days. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Index closed at 121.55 points on Wednesday, up 0.01 points from the previous weekend, and the Enterprise Bond Index closed at 134.64 points, up 0.06 points. In the short term, the bond market is at a high level, but in the long term, it faces challenges from IPO restart and inflation [12]. Investment Recommendations - The yields of US Treasury bonds and mortgage - backed securities have risen significantly. It is recommended to gradually reduce bond investments, avoid bonds with too low yields, appropriately hold high - coupon and floating - rate bonds based on the money market rate, and strictly control the investment duration [14].

Group 1 - The prices of U.S. Treasury bonds have risen slightly due to market expectations of continued interest rate declines and heightened demand for safer assets amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 basis points to 4.01%, potentially reaching its lowest level since early April if it drops below 4% [1][3] - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point to 3.47%, nearing levels not seen in three years [1][3] Group 2 - Since the escalation of trade negotiation tensions last week, the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds have increased, with yields cumulatively dropping over 10 basis points [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may consider another rate cut later this month due to signs of economic weakness, which further supported U.S. Treasury prices [3] - Global bond markets have also strengthened, with strong demand for Japan's 20-year bonds and optimism surrounding French bonds amid political stability [3] Group 3 - According to Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, current U.S. Treasury yield levels suggest that investors expect the federal funds rate to decrease from approximately 4.25% to 3% by mid-next year [3] - Brown noted that unless there are renewed fears of economic growth due to potential tariffs proposed by Trump, yields are unlikely to drop significantly further [4] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming manufacturing data and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers [4] Group 4 - Due to the ongoing government shutdown causing data delays, key inflation data originally scheduled for release on Wednesday has been postponed to October 24 [5]