Report Title - Nanhua Futures' Outlook for Nickel & Stainless Steel in 2026: Adapting to the Supply-Demand Structural Adjustment Cycle [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In 2025, the nickel market first rose and then declined. The price was mainly influenced by demand fluctuations and sentiment changes, lacking fundamental factors for a trend reversal. The annual price performance was weaker than previous years [2][3]. - In 2026, the focus of the nickel market remains on the progress of supply-demand structural adjustments. The demand for stainless steel is expected to remain stable, while the demand for nickel in the new energy sector is likely to be moderate. The Indonesian government's policies will continue to affect the market, and the supply surplus situation may improve marginally [4][5][6]. - The report predicts that in 2026, the main contract range for nickel will be between 118,000 - 130,000 yuan, and for stainless steel, it will be between 12,100 - 13,000 yuan [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Annual Market Review - **First Quarter**: The nickel price showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the price center rising to the range of 125,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. The main influencing factors were Indonesian policy adjustments and the contradiction between short - term cost support and long - term oversupply [9]. - **Second Quarter**: The nickel - stainless steel market showed a volatile and downward - trending pattern. Factors such as the US tariff policy, rising LME nickel inventories, and weak terminal demand led to the decline of nickel and stainless steel prices [11]. - **Third Quarter**: The market showed a range - bound and slightly upward - trending pattern, mainly driven by news and policy expectations. However, high inventories and weak demand restricted the upward space of prices [12]. - **Fourth Quarter**: The market was mainly affected by Indonesian policy disturbances and macro - expectations. Although there were short - term price rebounds, the overall supply surplus situation remained unchanged, and the price fluctuations were mainly due to market sentiment and capital speculation [13]. Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In 2025, the supply of the nickel ore market was affected by policies and seasons. The supply was tight in the first half of the year and then eased. The demand was mainly suppressed by downstream smelting profits, showing cost - sensitivity characteristics [16][19]. - In 2026, the nickel ore market will be in a cycle of strong policy supervision and rational return of production capacity. The Indonesian government's policies will lead to a certain degree of supply contraction, and the price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [22][23]. Ferronickel - In 2025, the supply of the ferronickel market showed regional differentiation and structural substitution characteristics. The supply was tight in the first half of the year and then increased. The demand was mainly suppressed by the weak profits of downstream stainless steel [25][29]. - In 2026, the ferronickel market will also enter a cycle of policy supervision and rational return of production capacity. The growth rate of effective production capacity is expected to slow down, and the price center will likely be affected by the demand of downstream steel mills [30][31]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In 2025, the supply of global nickel intermediates was mainly from Indonesia. The production of MHP increased significantly, while the production of nickel sulfate decreased. The demand was affected by the differentiation of technical routes, and the pricing system was adjusted [33][35]. - In 2026, the supply of nickel sulfate intermediates will show a structural increase, while the demand in the Chinese battery sector will slow down. The market may enter a cycle of processing fee control and raw material coefficient game [37][38]. Stainless Steel - In 2025, the supply of stainless steel showed a pattern of marginal slowdown in total growth, internal structural differentiation, and intensified extrusion from overseas capacity. The demand was affected by the weakening of traditional growth engines and the challenges of the external market [42][46][47]. - In 2026, the stainless steel market may enter a cycle of supply - demand re - balance. The supply side will see further elimination of high - cost production capacity, and the demand side may have a marginal improvement, especially in high - end special stainless steel [50][52]. 2026 Annual Balance Deduction - In 2026, the core trading logic of the nickel market will shift to the joint action of supply - demand structural optimization and integrated cost rigid support. The supply surplus situation will be alleviated but not reversed [54]. - The demand for nickel in the stainless steel industry will be the core anchor point. The new energy vehicle battery sector will face pressure from the penetration of lithium iron phosphate, and the nickel market surplus will continue in 2026 [54][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, influenced by Indonesian policy changes, the bullish sentiment is high, and nickel prices are expected to maintain an overall rebound trend. However, high inventory and oversupply in the fundamentals will drag down the rebound strength [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the weak supply - demand situation has not changed fundamentally, short - term cost support and technical strength provide price resilience. Investors should pay attention to the implementation progress of Indonesian policies and inventory changes to seize the opportunity of oscillating upward [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 24, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a 3.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the open interest was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. It showed a strong and volatile trend with significant capital inflow, driven by the expectation of Indonesian quota contraction and external market, but restricted by high inventory and differences between long and short positions. The continuous weakening of the US dollar increased the attractiveness of commodities, while weak consumption and high inventory limited the rebound strength [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable overall. In China's southern region, 1.3% nickel ore was traded at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender at the northern Benguet mine was settled at FOB $33.5, with a price increase. Considering rainfall, the shipping efficiency was fair. Downstream iron plants were still in losses, and their attitude of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases might ease. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December dropped by $0.11 - $0.18 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 133,800 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Nickel prices rose significantly, and spot trading was weak. The spot premiums of refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,621 (-301) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,604 (+216) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations [4]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 24, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the open interest was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. It showed a mild rebound with increasing volume and price, and the fluctuation was relatively stable, consistent with the strong continuation of Shanghai nickel's sharp rise the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly purchasing on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,025 (+75) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 893.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Buy on dips [6]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [6]. - **Inter - variety**: None [6]. - **Futures - spot**: None [6]. - **Options**: None [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The current high copper price is mainly driven by the structural imbalance of supply and inventory. The COMEX - LME premium leads to the continuous siphoning of non - US copper resources by the US, intensifying the supply shortage in non - US regions. The Fed's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion boost market risk appetite and support copper prices. - The long - term TC in 2026 is $0/ dry ton. As long as the by - product profit can be higher than the smelting cost, the cash - flow profit of smelters can be maintained. The key to the tightness in the smelting end transferred from the tightness in the mine end lies in the price trend of by - products such as sulfuric acid. - SMM expects that China's electrolytic copper production may continue to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High copper prices suppress terminal demand, resulting in a large discount in the spot market this week, an increase in social inventory, and a weakening of downstream operating rates and order releases. - In the future, the upward drivers are the further deterioration of the overseas inventory structure and the further improvement of interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is the negative feedback from weakening demand, but the downside space is limited in non - recession scenarios. In the long run, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to rise [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level shock yesterday. The fundamental pattern of oversupply in the spot market has not improved. The root cause is the structural surplus between stable supply growth and peak demand, which has triggered a comprehensive negative feedback cycle from inventory to cost. The supply is rigid, and the weekly output increased by 0.5 million tons to 1.689 million tons, leading to a weekly increase in the entire industrial chain inventory to a new high. After the price breaks through the industry's cash - cost line, enterprises pressure the price of upstream bauxite, and the cost - support level moves down dynamically. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2450 - 2650 yuan/ton for the main contract. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level shock yesterday. The spot discount widened to - 170 yuan/ton, indicating poor market acceptance at high prices and sluggish spot trading. Macroscopically, the overseas easing expectation is strengthened, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The employment data from October to November shows a significant cooling of the labor market, consolidating the logic of interest - rate cuts, and the weakening US dollar is beneficial to aluminum prices. Domestically, policies remain positive. On the supply side, the new production capacities in China and Indonesia are steadily released, and the operating output increases slightly; on the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, the operating rates of downstream aluminum - processing sectors generally decline, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases to 76.3%, reflecting weakening terminal consumption. The inventory structure is differentiated, and the on - the - way inventory in Xinjiang has increased due to improved transportation. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with a reference operating range of 21800 - 22600 yuan/ton for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast - aluminum - alloy market maintained a slightly stronger shock yesterday. The core contradiction in the current market is the game between strong cost support and the reality of weakening marginal demand. On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum, especially primary aluminum, is continuously and comprehensively tight, and holders generally hold back supplies and support prices, causing recycled - aluminum plants to face high procurement costs. In addition, the stricter implementation of reverse invoicing in some regions recently is expected to increase the cost by about 100 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have raised prices urgently. On the demand side, high aluminum prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises, and enterprises mainly purchase on demand and wait and see cautiously. Although there is a phased impulse demand at the end of the year, the overall slowdown is obvious. The social inventory has decreased slightly for several consecutive weeks to 5.34 million tons, indicating a tight - balance state in the market. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with a reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton for the main contract [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are fluctuating. Domestic zinc - concentrate production has entered the production - reduction season, and the domestic zinc - mine output decreased month - on - month in November. As the risk of short - squeezing overseas eases and the Shanghai - London ratio is repaired, the window for zinc - mine imports is opened, and the TC shows signs of stopping falling and stabilizing. On the smelting side, due to profit pressure, more enterprises are actively reducing production and controlling output, and the increase in refined - zinc output is limited. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream processing industries are basically stable. After the center of zinc prices moves down, enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, the domestic spot zinc ingots maintain a premium, and the social inventory continues to decline. In terms of inventory, the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 structure has changed to a discount, easing the short - squeezing risk. Macroscopically, the inflation and employment data in the US in November improve the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which supports zinc prices, and the main contract should focus on the support level of 22850 - 22950 [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the resumption of tin - mine production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the import volume has steadily recovered in November. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in supply. On the demand side, tin - solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience. Against the background of the traditional peak season, some downstream electronic - consumption and new - energy - related orders support the operating rate, making the overall trading atmosphere in this region better than that in East China, especially in the sub - fields related to new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic solder strips, where the demand remains stable. In East China, the operating rates of tin - solder enterprises are more obviously suppressed as they are more oriented towards traditional consumer electronics and white - goods fields. Recently, there are signs of improvement in the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia, and previous long positions should be gradually closed for profit. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures fluctuated widely yesterday, showing a relatively strong trend during the day and a slight decline at night. Recently, the market has mainly traded around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply. The increase in domestic nickel prices has widened, but the spot trading of refined nickel remains cold. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel resources has risen, and traders are cautious about purchasing at high premiums. In terms of nickel ore, the FOB price of 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in northern Philippines was settled at $40, and the shipping efficiency is acceptable; the domestic - trade benchmark price in Indonesia in December (Phase II) is expected to fall by $0.11 - 0.18/ wet ton, with a mainstream domestic - trade premium of + 25. The domestic - trade price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline. In terms of nickel iron, the support from the ore end is increasing, and the pressure on prices from steel mills has eased due to improved profits, and the recent transaction price has risen slightly. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious about raw - material procurement, with weak terminal demand. At the end of the year, the production schedule of downstream ternary materials has declined slightly, and the medium - term new production capacity will also have a restrictive effect, and the price of nickel sulfate has fallen slightly. Overseas inventory is accumulating at a high level but at a slower pace, while the pressure on domestic social inventory is increasing. Overall, the expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel ore has boosted recent sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be observed. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamental looseness restricts the upside space of prices. The futures are expected to continue to fluctuate and repair in the short term, but the upside space after the rapid breakthrough of the support level remains to be observed. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the digestion of news impacts, with a reference range of 123000 - 130000 for the main contract [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures maintained a relatively strong shock yesterday, with a slight decline at night. The price - increase atmosphere in the现货 market has become stronger, steel - mill agents led the price increase, and some traders and downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices, resulting in an overall increase in trading volume. Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected this year, and the domestic central bank injected liquidity, and the policy window has shown a certain attitude in stabilizing growth and promoting consumption. In the nickel - ore market, the news from Indonesia has been fluctuating, strengthening the market's expectation of tightened ore supply. The FOB price of 1.4% nickel ore from the Eramen mine in northern Philippines was settled at $40; the domestic - trade benchmark price in Indonesia in December (Phase II) is expected to fall by $0.11 - 0.18/ wet ton, with a mainstream domestic - trade premium of + 25. The bargaining range for nickel iron has been raised, and the profit losses of iron plants have been somewhat repaired; the price of ferrochrome has been running steadily, and factories are mainly fulfilling orders. The supply is relatively high, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year, and the loss pressure may also force more steel mills to actively reduce production, slightly easing the supply pressure. In the off - season of demand, the order releases in downstream fields such as home appliances and architectural decoration are limited, and market transactions are mainly based on rigid demand, with a low willingness for large - scale procurement. The social inventory is decreasing overall, but the reality of high inventory is still prominent. Overall, the futures are greatly affected by overall sentiment, the supply pressure in the fundamentals has slightly eased, and the cost support from the ore end and nickel iron has been strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient. The short - term sentiment in the stainless - steel market has improved, but the supply - demand game in the fundamentals continues. It is expected to adjust through shocks in the short term, with a reference range of 12500 - 13200 for the main contract. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the news from the nickel - ore end and the implementation of steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures remained strong yesterday. The main contract LC2605 continued to rise by 5.89% to 124720 at the close after approaching the daily limit at the end of the session and then reducing positions and falling back, with high capital sentiment. There is a lot of incremental news. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the trading time on December 26, the daily opening - position limits for non - futures - company members or clients in contracts LC2601, LC2602, LC2603, LC2604, and LC2605 shall not exceed 400 lots respectively, and those in contracts LC2606, LC2607, LC2608, LC2610, LC2610, LC2611, and LC2612 shall not exceed 800 lots respectively. The minimum order quantity for trading instructions has been adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, and the minimum closing - order quantity remains 1 lot. In addition, Jiemian News reported that according to a person close to CATL, the lithium - ore mining project in the lower reaches is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the supply and demand are both strong. The production data last week maintained a slight increase. Recently, the increment of new salt - lake lithium - extraction projects has been partially released. After the completion of maintenance of some projects, the lithium - extraction production from spodumene is expected to increase in December, while the production from mica remains stable with a slight decrease. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of large enterprises. The recycling end has shown a slight upward trend recently. The downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. In the off - season, the market's production - schedule expectations for downstream industries in January are mostly a slight month - on - month decrease, mainly driven by the reduction in ternary materials for power batteries. The inventory reduction slowed down last week. The inventories of upstream smelters and downstream sectors continued to decrease, while the inventories of battery - cell factories and traders increased. The high off - balance - sheet hidden inventory may also pose a certain pressure. The short - term balance fundamentals support the price to some extent, but there is limited new driving force in the future. Recently, the futures performance has deviated from the spot market in the capital - driven market. Negative news may suppress sentiment, intensifying the long - short game. The futures may retreat and then fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 118,000 - 122,000 for the main contract [17]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized. The futures price has oscillated and rebounded by 145 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton. Both supply and demand are stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of industrial - silicon production reduction is further increasing. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation. The expectation of joint production cuts by multiple leading enterprises to support prices is rising. Currently, the weekly production has decreased slightly without obvious changes, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress. The expectation of rising coal prices also provides support at the bottom. It is expected that the weak supply - demand situation will continue in December. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the decrease in industrial - silicon production. It is still expected that the industrial - silicon price will oscillate at a low level, with the main price - fluctuation range likely to be between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If the production does decrease significantly, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/ton upwards. However, if polysilicon production is significantly reduced, the price will fall [19]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has slightly declined, and the futures price has oscillated, declined, and then recovered, rising by 380 yuan/ton to 59225 yuan/ton. The exchange announced that non - futures - company members or clients shall not open more than 200 lots in each contract on a single day. Against the background of weak demand, upstream enterprises hope to drive up the prices of the entire industrial chain by supporting prices. Recently, downstream enterprises have raised their quotes under the pressure of rising raw - material prices. The prices of silicon wafers have increased by 2 - 4%, the prices of battery cells have increased by 5%, and the prices of components have increased slightly by 0.15%, but the profits are still under pressure. From the perspective of terminal installation, after the new policy, due to the relatively concentrated power - generation time of photovoltaic installations, the advantage of more dispersed power - generation time of new - energy wind power has emerged, so the integrated development of wind, solar, and energy storage may be a more profitable development direction. For the photovoltaic industrial chain to increase the overall price level, the demand side needs to find more application scenarios to absorb the gradually rising costs. The polysilicon price will still oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a significant premium to the spot market. Attention should be paid to the production - reduction amplitude or the pressure of price decline. In terms of trading strategies, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the subsequent production - reduction situation and the acceptance of price adjustments. The open interest of the near - month contract has decreased to 12,700 lots, and the open interest of the 2602 contract is 28,900 lots. Investors are still reminded to pay attention to position management [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper: The current price is 94,690 yuan/ton, up 1,220 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous day. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount: - 310 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The refined - scrap spread is 3,544 yuan/ton, up 409.97 yuan/ton (13.08%) [1]. Monthly Fundamental Data (November) - Electrolytic copper production: 1.1031 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%) month - on - month. - Electrolytic copper imports: 0.2711 million tons, down 0.011 million tons (- 3.90%) month - on - month [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Imported copper - concentrate index: - 43.65 dollars/ton, down 0.57 dollars/ton (1.32%) week - on - week. - Domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory: 0.7314 million tons, down 0.0325 million tons (- 4.25%) week - on - week [1]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: 0.1684 million tons, up 0.0039 million tons (2.37%) week - on - week. - Bonded - area inventory: 0.0766 million tons, up 0.0011 million tons (1.46%) week - on - week. - SHFE inventory: 0.0958 million tons, up 0.0064 million tons (7.18%) week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a rebound due to the continuous stimulation of events in Indonesia. For nickel, the short - term is in a strong atmosphere, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains. For stainless steel, the short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and the medium - to - long - term needs to focus on the resolution of supply - demand contradictions [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a change of 3.92% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the holding volume was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. The price showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, and strong upward movement, driven by the fermentation of news of a significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore quota, combined with the drive of the external market and the entry of long - position funds. Attention should be paid to the details of Indonesia's quota policy implementation and the progress of the revision of the 2026 mineral benchmark price calculation formula [1] - **Nickel Ore**: According to Mysteel, recent new tender transactions in the nickel ore market have landed, and the overall nickel ore price has remained stable. The 1.3% nickel ore in southern China was transacted at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender from the northern Benguet mine landed at FOB $33.5. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream iron plants are still in a profit - loss state, and their mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases may slow down. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December fell by $0.11 - 0.18/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 128,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was still cold, and downstream buyers were cautious. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 6,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,922 (+1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 (-162) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, affected by news, the fundamentals show high inventory and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. Be vigilant against callbacks caused by rapid short - term price increases. The strategy for the single - side operation is to sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,840 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the holding volume was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of "passively following the rise, increasing volume and decreasing positions", driven by the strong rise of Shanghai nickel and breaking through important resistance levels technically [3] - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and they mainly purchased on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,975 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 100 to 350 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - The pattern of weak supply and demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged. The short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the resolution of supply - demand contradictions. Be cautious about chasing highs. The single - side operation strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel faces concerns about Indonesian policies, leading to a sentiment-driven price increase on the trading floor [4] - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, and is affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [4] Group 2: Industry News - On September 12, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force took over over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [2] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [3] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding RKAB approval procedures, with the 2026 RKAB approval deadline set for November 15, 2025 [5] - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all critical software" [5] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [6] - Indonesian industrial parks are strengthening safety inspections, affecting the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with a production reduction of about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [6] - On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [6] - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to impose export license management on some steel products starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government will revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent commodity [6] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 123,440, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,905 [3] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 386,986, and the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 263,756 [3] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,250, the Russian nickel premium is 600, and the nickel bean premium is 2300 [3] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 334 [3] - The nickel plate import profit is 572 [3] - The price of laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55 [3] - In the stainless - steel market, prices of different products such as 304/2B rolls and 304/No.1 rolls vary, with price changes from different time periods [3] - The price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55, Inner Mongolia) is 8100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,430 [3] - The nickel sulfate premium is 535 [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is +1 [7]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - The main contract for nickel opened at 120,280 CNY/ton and closed at 123,440 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 3.92% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 386,986 lots and an open interest of 134,454 lots [11] - The strong upward trend in nickel futures is driven by significant reductions in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, along with external market influences and the entry of bullish funds, indicating a notably strong short-term sentiment [11] - Recent nickel ore market transactions show stable prices, with domestic 1.3% nickel ore priced at CIF 39.5 USD and Philippine 1.3% nickel ore at FOB 33.5 USD, while domestic procurement sentiment may slow due to profit losses in downstream iron factories [11][12] Group 2: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - The main contract for stainless steel opened at 12,840 CNY/ton and closed at 12,905 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 168,990 lots and an open interest of 100,771 lots [14] - The stainless steel futures market is experiencing a passive follow-up trend with increased volume but reduced open interest, primarily driven by the strong rise in nickel prices [14] - Downstream purchasing remains cautious, focusing on demand-based procurement, leading to a slowdown in inventory depletion, with prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets at 12,975 CNY/ton and 12,950 CNY/ton respectively [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material supply of ferronickel is expected to contract due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grades, tightening raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants, and a significant reduction in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year, which will put pressure on ferronickel production [2]. - Although stainless - steel mills' production profits have improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the decline in stainless - steel production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and stainless - steel exports are decreasing. Market purchasing willingness is low, but the national stainless - steel social inventory is seasonally decreasing slightly [2]. - Technically, stainless - steel futures show increased volume, reduced positions, and rising prices. The bearish sentiment has declined, breaking through the key resistance of MA60. It is expected that stainless - steel futures prices will adjust strongly, with support at MA5 and the upper target at 13,100 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,905 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,375 lots, a decrease of 8,491 lots; the main contract position is 100,771 lots, a decrease of 7,250 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 47,705 tons, a decrease of 607 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 125,250 yuan/ton, up 3,450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters [2]. - The monthly excavator production is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. In December, the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [2]. - Trump - "appointed" Fed governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a recession risk. Rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

Group 1: Report Title and General Situation - The report is titled "New Energy and Non - Ferrous Metals Daily Report | December 23, 2025", stating that the sentiment of supply disruption in Indonesian nickel mines continues, and nickel and stainless steel maintain a rebound [1] Group 2: Nickel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,600 yuan/ton and closed at 121,260 yuan/ton, a change of 4.55% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 196,376 (-14,261) lots, and the open interest was 57,011 (18,484) lots. The futures showed a strong rebound with high opening and high closing, driven by the resonance of Indonesian production - cut expectations and capital sentiment. However, due to factors such as high inventory and off - season demand, the short - term rebound cannot change the long - term supply surplus pattern [2] - In the nickel ore market, new tenders have started, and the price of nickel ore has remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender of the northern Benguet mine has not yet had a deal. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is acceptable. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and most need to stock up before the Spring Festival, so the mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore procurement may slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase II) has fallen by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 124,900 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. With the sharp rise in futures prices, downstream wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and trading is average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel are mostly stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 100 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 (1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,550 (612) tons [3] Strategy - With high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy for unilateral trading is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [4] Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Analysis Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,487 (-107,409) lots, and the open interest was 108,021 (-4,171) lots. The futures showed characteristics of "passively following the rise, shrinking volume, and weak rebound", reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the fundamentals of stainless steel itself. In the short term, it may fluctuate with nickel prices, but in the long term, the supply - demand contradiction will still dominate the price [4] - With the strengthening of the futures market, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and they mainly purchase on demand. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,900 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 180 to 380 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 885.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - With low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation state. The unilateral trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trades [6] Group 4: Other Information - The report provides 14 figures, including LME closing and spot prices, Shanghai nickel main contract closing and SMM spot prices, refined nickel import profits and losses, etc., with data sources mainly from SMM and MySteel [7] - The analysts of this report are Feng Fan, Chen Sijie, and Shi Cheng, and the contact person is Lin Yihang, along with their corresponding qualification numbers [37][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support has strengthened, but the upward space still depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic was about excess pressure and wet - process production expectations. Indonesian news has weakened short - sellers' confidence, and there may be a catch - up increase in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from supply - strong and demand - weak to supply - demand weakness, and the excess pressure has been structurally transferred. However, the expectation of increased supply from the low - cost wet - process path in the long - term still exists, limiting the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradictions of stainless steel are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of nickel - iron costs. If the quota policy is implemented, the excess contradiction of nickel elements may be turned into a shortage. The resource tax implementation depends on the pricing model of associated resources. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and low supply growth, showing a slight excess. The cost of nickel - iron has slightly increased, and the bottom - line safety margin of stainless steel is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs News Review - The Indonesian government urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and market news said that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. This may cause a shortage of ore, reverse the excess expectation of primary nickel to a shortage, but the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The previous adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore increased the theoretical smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton, but the cost increase may not be fully passed on. The impact of taxing cobalt on cost depends on the base - price formula, and the impact on cost should not be overestimated, but there are uncertainties for pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical enterprises [2]. Market Outlook - Nickel: Short - term price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on policy implementation. The fundamentals have changed to supply - demand weakness, and attention should be paid to the possibility of hidden restocking at low prices. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show a slight excess, and the cost has slightly increased. The bottom - line safety margin is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [4]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons, with an increase of 2,352 tons in warehouse receipt inventory, a decrease of 2,071 tons in spot inventory, and no change in bonded - area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days on December 18 [5]. - Nickel - iron - stainless steel: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.5% week - on - week, and that of hot - rolled stainless steel decreased by 2.73% week - on - week [5]. Market News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - ore output by about 600 metal tons [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the sanctions will be cancelled if the companies submit claim plans and guarantees [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transitional provisions [8]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [9]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel - wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting the output by about 6,000 nickel - metal tons [11]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased investors' probability of expecting a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [11]. - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [11]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore commodities in early 2026, and may treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [11]. - Market news said that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [11]. Key Data Tracking - The table shows the weekly key data tracking of nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, spot prices, spreads, import profits, etc. For example, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 117,180, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,720 [13].