对于长建而言，该行认为事件构成情绪面压力，因其凸显了政治审查风险，但未有直接冲击长建的利润 基础，因公司业务主要集中于英国及澳洲受监管的公用事业。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，考虑到监管重置及英国铁路业务出售等利好因素已反映于长和 (00001)股价中，认为其基本面不变，但进一步上行空间有限，加上股息收益率已与同业接近，将评级 由"买入"下调至"跑赢大市"，目标价由63.5港元上调至66.3港元。 长和上周被巴拿马最高法院裁定其港口特许经营合约违宪，导致长和及长江基建集团(01038)股价下 跌。该行认为，裁决很可能源于中美在战略资产上的紧张关系，或扰乱长和计划向贝莱德出售其全球港 口业务的交易。 ...

Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The report analyzes the valuation of major indices in the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI), Hang Seng Index (HSI), and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) [8][9][13][17]. - The report highlights that there are no industries currently undervalued with a PE valuation percentile below 20% [24]. - Industries with PE valuation percentiles below 50% include Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Utilities [24]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report indicates that industries with relatively high PE valuations (above 50%) include Energy, Materials, Industrials, Healthcare, Financials, Information Technology, and Telecommunications [24]. - For PB valuation, no industries are currently undervalued with a percentile below 20% [24]. - Industries with PB valuation percentiles below 50% are Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate [24]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report includes a trend analysis of the Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index, showing fluctuations over time [34]. - The average value and standard deviations of the AH Share Premium Index are provided, indicating market sentiment towards AH shares [34].

研究结论 固定收益 | 专题报告 中等期限票息品种还可继续挖掘 2026 年 2 月小品种策略 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预期；数据统计可能 存在遗误 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 结汇如何影响资金面和存单：固定收益市 | ...

大和指出，长和上周被巴拿马最高法院裁定港口特许经营合约违宪，引发长和及长江基建股价下跌，但 该事件仅对长江基建构成情绪面压力，未直接冲击其利润基础，因其业务主要集中于英国及澳洲受监管 公用事业。该行认为公司监管重置、英国铁路业务出售等利好已反映在股价中，基本面不变但上行空间 有限，且股息收益率已与同业接近。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：2月3日，大和发表最新研报，将长江基建集团评级由"买入"下调至"跑赢大市"，同时将目标 价由63.5港元上调至66.3港元。 ...

大和发表研报指，长和上周被巴拿马最高法院裁定其港口特许经营合约违宪，导致长和及长江基建集团 股价下跌。对于长建而言，该行认为事件构成情绪面压力，因其凸显了政治审查风险，但未有直接冲击 长建的利润基础，因公司业务主要集中于英国及澳洲受监管的公用事业。考虑到监管重置及英国铁路业 务出售等利好因素已反映于股价中，该行认为其基本面不变，但进一步上行空间有限，加上股息收益率 已与同业接近，将评级由"买入"下调至"跑赢大市"，目标价由63.5港元上调至66.3港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sector showed signs of recovery in January, driven by strong demand for dividend assets from insurance companies and the performance of cyclical high dividend stocks like oil, petrochemicals, and steel [2][4]. Market Overview - The overall market risk appetite continued to decline in January, with the full A ERP falling below one standard deviation of the past five-year average, indicating a challenging environment for market risk premium recovery [1][3]. - The volatility in cyclical stocks has impacted the market's profit-making ability, leading to a potential "small plateau" in investor risk appetite [3]. High Dividend Strategy - The configuration value of high dividend stocks has marginally increased compared to the previous month, suggesting a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1][3]. - The high dividend strategy's cost-effectiveness has improved, with the current full A ERP positioned at a historically significant level, requiring fundamental recovery or strong capital support for a breakthrough [3]. Sector Investment Opportunities - **Insurance**: The market sentiment remains strong, with expectations for continued positive performance in the insurance sector [5]. - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about global oil supply risks, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 has been raised to $65 per barrel [5]. - **Construction Materials**: The construction sector is expected to improve post-Spring Festival, with price increases in fiberglass, waterproof materials, and gypsum boards anticipated [5]. - **Utilities**: The electricity supply side is expected to stabilize, with coal prices remaining steady, indicating a bottoming out of electricity stock valuations [6]. - **Transportation**: The logistics sector is seeing a slight uptick in activity, particularly in road freight, as the Spring Festival travel season approaches [6]. - **Banking**: Banks are actively increasing lending, with profit margins expected to improve, particularly in light of a manageable impact from the real estate sector [7]. - **Real Estate**: The Hong Kong residential market has seen significant growth, with transaction volumes and prices rebounding, indicating a recovery trend [7]. - **Consumer Staples**: Leading companies in the consumer staples sector are expected to maintain stable cash flows and increase dividend payouts, benefiting from structural upgrades and international expansion opportunities [8].

2026 2026 年 年第 1 月 5 27 期 宏观经济 日 工业企业利润数据点评 新旧分化显著，工业企业利润年增速结束连续三年负 增长转正 ——12 月工业企业利润数据点评 事件：2025 年 1-12 月工业企业营收同比增长 1.1%，较 2024 年回落 1 个百分点，较 1-11 月回落 0.5 个百分点；1-12 月工业企 业利润同比 0.6%，较 2024 年回升 3.9 个百分点，较 1-11 月回升 0.5 个百分点,12 月当月利润同比 5.3%，较上年同期回落 5.7 个百 分点，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点。 "量"的支撑边际加大、"价"的拖累减轻，12 月工业企业 利润由负转正，2025 年工业企业利润扭转连续 3 年负增长态势， 增速转正但仍位于低位水平。12 月工业企业利润当月同比由负转 正，为 5.3%，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点，为近 3 个月最高。量 的方面，12 月年底备货的季末效应和出口拉动下工业增加值增速 回升，12 月工业增加值同比较上月回升 0.4 个百分点至 5.2%。价 的方面，12 月 PPI 当月同比下降 1.9%，降幅较前值收窄 0. ...

Group 1: Major Companies - Tesla has achieved large-scale production of dry electrode batteries, which is a significant breakthrough in lithium battery manufacturing technology, reducing costs, energy consumption, and factory complexity while significantly improving scalability [1] - Zhiyuan Robotics is preparing for the world's first large-scale robot gala, "Robot Wonderful Night," featuring hundreds of robots performing various acts, which will be live-streamed soon [1] - Tokyo Electric Power Company has initiated a restructuring effort to improve its financial situation and is seeking potential alliance partners, with a goal to cut costs by approximately 31 trillion yen (200 billion) over the next decade [1] Group 2: Investment and Financing - "Fengshi Technology" has secured 30 million in strategic investment, which will be used for high-value utilization of Antarctic krill and the development of krill phospholipid pharmaceuticals, as well as expanding intelligent production lines to support global market development [5] - "Linghou Robotics" has completed over 100 million in Pre-B round financing, led by NIO Capital, with participation from several other investment institutions [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The Data×AI Super Company Annual Conference gathered over 80 decision-makers from major companies to discuss the implementation of AI, highlighting that in the AI era, a company's advancement is marked by token consumption and productivity is measured by the proportion of AI employees [2] - Ant Group has launched the "AI Credit" incentive program to promote comprehensive AI integration within the organization, offering additional rewards for teams and individuals making significant contributions to AI [3] - VinFast plans to accelerate its global expansion of electric motorcycles, targeting markets in the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Thailand, and Malaysia, with multiple models set to be launched [4]

一方面，1月最后一周，美股披露财报的企业数量较多。另一方面，出口对企业盈利的影响越来越大， 我们补充美国上市公司的盈利数据以完善对出口景气的观察。整体而言，美股盈利增速依然较高，但结 构分化较大。四季度，已披露财报的标普500成分股当季利润增速为10.8%，低于三季度的24.1%。按照 WIND的行业分类，11个一级行业中，有7个利润增速为负。非金融行业中，仅三个利润增速为正，包 括信息技术、工业、公用事业。 来源：一瑜中的 报告摘要 前言：本周周报关注美国四季报盈利情况 整体情况：利润增速有所下滑 截止至2月1日，美国标普500成分股中有180个个股披露了四季报（注：美股财年不统一，此处按日历时 间标记，指业绩对应日期主要在2025年四季度的财报）。这180只个股对应市值占标普500市值一半左 右。 从季度利润增速来看，四季度，美股样本企业增速为10.8%，低于2025年三季度的24.1%，但参考历史 增速来看，依然处于偏高增速水平。 分行业：分化较大，三个方向景气较高 分行业来看，按照wind的行业分类，2025年四季度，11个行业中有7个行业利润增速为负。仅信息技 术、金融、工业、公用事业四个行业利润增 ...

Overall Situation - The profit growth rate of S&P 500 companies has declined, with a reported growth of 10.8% for Q4 2025, down from 24.1% in Q3 2025, although it remains at a relatively high level historically [3][12]. Industry Analysis - There is significant divergence in profit growth across industries, with 7 out of 11 sectors reporting negative growth. Only the information technology, financial, industrial, and utility sectors showed positive growth, with information technology contributing 12.6% to the overall profit growth of sample companies at a rate of 44.5% [4][15]. Information Technology - In the information technology sector, 25 companies reported earnings, with 21 showing positive profit growth. Notably, 18 companies had growth rates exceeding 10%, with standout performers including SanDisk at 672%, Western Digital at 210%, Micron Technology at 180.2%, Broadcom at 97%, and Oracle at 94.7% [5][18]. Utilities - The utility sector performed well, with two companies reporting a combined profit growth of 251.1%. This performance is likely linked to rising electricity prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for electricity services showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7% in December 2025 [6][22]. Industrial - The industrial sector saw a profit growth rate of 45.9%, driven largely by military production. Key companies included Boeing (returning to profitability), Lockheed Martin with a growth of 155%, Northrop Grumman at 66.7%, and General Electric Aerospace at 34.9%. The production index for aerospace and other transportation equipment has risen significantly, averaging a year-on-year growth of 20.9% over the last four months [7][24].