Core Viewpoint - The current global market is dominated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the strong stance of Iran's new leadership threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant adjustments in oil supply forecasts and a surge in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its oil supply growth expectations, labeling the situation as the "largest supply disruption in history," which has resulted in oil prices soaring over 10% [1] - The geopolitical risks are not limited to energy but are also affecting agricultural products through trade routes for palm oil and fertilizers, exacerbating global inflation uncertainties [1] - The U.S. is reportedly planning to temporarily waive the Jones Act to increase domestic transportation capacity in response to rising oil prices [1] Group 2: Key Commodities and Market Reactions - Oil prices continue to rise, with the U.S. President indicating that military actions against Iran will not conclude soon, and the G7 energy ministers have not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves [2][12] - The European shipping index (EC) has increased by 3.07%, indicating challenges in maintaining pricing amid traditional low demand seasons, with Maersk and MSC adjusting their rates [3][29] - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan, as the focus shifts from broad market gains to selective investments in companies with strong earnings [3][10] Group 3: Financial and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China is committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with recent operations indicating a focus on liquidity [7] - The U.S. oil inventory has decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [13] - The market is expected to transition from a phase driven by expectations to one driven by actual earnings, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and improved performance [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupting Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports, many Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure [3]. - For crude oil futures, in the medium - term, three variables need to be focused on: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy implementation rhythm. It is recommended to trade within a range and avoid unilateral chasing [4]. - For the stock market, the adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity. The market showed strength today as it did not decline when it should [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The war between the US, Israel and Iran has disrupted Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports. Asian steam cracking plants with over 60% of naphtha raw materials from the Middle - East have declared force majeure [3]. - Three operators are reducing production loads to use raw material inventory for the next month to avoid full - scale shutdown. Restarting a steam cracking unit takes up to two weeks, and factories usually don't store more than a month's worth of raw materials [3]. - In the medium - term, focus on three variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium (the 8 - 10 dollars/barrel premium will fade if the strait passage recovers), supply - demand fundamentals (OPEC + production cuts and slow US shale oil production increase form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak), and policy implementation rhythm (US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC + production adjustments will determine the volatility center). It is recommended to trade within a range (Brent: 80 - 100 dollars/barrel, SC crude: 600 - 800 yuan/barrel) and set stop - losses, avoiding overnight positions [4]. Stock Market - The market adjustment today was slightly weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively strong. The fact that it didn't decline when it should indicates strength. The adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity [6][7]. Gold - The daily - level red - green line of gold has turned to a volatile state. The daily amplitude of gold is small, maintaining in the range of 1140 - 1155. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [10]. Iron Ore - Australian and Brazilian shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, with a loose supply expectation. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the commodity sentiment is high recently, and iron ore is running strongly. A bullish view can be maintained [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories are accumulating. The post - festival resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises needs to be concerned. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Technically, it rebounded today and should be treated as a wide - range volatile market [17][18]. Methanol - Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Driven by Middle - East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has had continuous large fluctuations. With a significant reduction in supply, it has entered a destocking channel, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 13.07 tons this week [21]. Pulp - Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production schedules, with some undergoing maintenance. Domestic port inventories are continuously increasing and under pressure. The downstream paper mills' operating loads are expected to continue to increase. Due to low paper enterprises' gross profits, there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [24].

Market Overview - The market experienced slight declines across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, with overall volatility remaining low [2][5] - Value styles such as dividends and cash flow showed resilience, while growth styles faced more significant declines [3][4] Oil Price Impact - The primary reason for market fluctuations is the recent sharp rise in oil prices, which increased by 10% at one point [7] - Concerns about inflation due to rising oil prices could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, negatively impacting asset prices [8] - The market has gradually adapted to the volatility of oil prices, with previous spikes causing more significant global market reactions [9][10] - A-shares experienced a correction of approximately 5%, while global non-US markets saw a 9% pullback during the initial oil price surge [11] Growth vs. Value Styles - Recent weeks have shown a "seesaw" effect between small-cap growth stocks and dividend/value stocks, with rising oil prices negatively impacting small-cap and growth styles [17] - Small-cap growth stocks have benefited the most from the liquidity provided by lower interest rates over the past two years [18][19] - Conversely, rising oil prices favor dividend and value styles, as many dividend indices are heavily weighted in energy sectors [21][22] Investment Suitability of Dividend Indices - The market has been reacting to dividend indices for some time, with these indices underperforming growth styles last year [27][28] - Many dividend indices were undervalued at the end of last year and have started to rise since mid-January [30][31] - Currently, indices like the CSI Dividend Low Volatility are still considered undervalued, suggesting potential for price appreciation [32] Valuation Insights - A valuation table for dividend and cash flow indices has been provided for reference, detailing metrics such as earnings yield, dividend yield, and ROE [34] - The valuation insights indicate that certain indices are still undervalued and may present investment opportunities [36] Upcoming Events - A live session is scheduled to discuss valuation metrics and their significance for investors, including P/E ratios and dividend yields [38]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The economic performance shows a divergence, with rising oil and chemical prices while gold and copper prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The AI sector is experiencing an upward shift in its economic center, with an increase in semiconductor sales growth rates [1][2] - The real estate cycle is showing signs of marginal weakness, while tourism and export sectors remain strong [1][2] Group 2: Upstream Resources - Oil prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil futures increasing by 27.9% as of March 6 [3] - The chemical price index rose by 11.9%, while the oil transportation index (BDTI) and refined oil transportation index (BCTI) increased by 54.1% and 75.7%, respectively [3] - In contrast, gold and copper prices fell by 1.7% and 2.8%, respectively, while aluminum prices rose by 9.7% due to supply constraints and increased demand for minor metals driven by AI capital expenditures [3] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The global semiconductor sales reached $82.54 billion and $22.82 billion in China in January 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.1% and 47.0%, respectively [4] - The average prices for DRAM DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 showed mixed trends, with DDR3 increasing by 8.0% and DDR4 decreasing by 3.1% [4] - The construction demand in the real estate sector has shown a marginal decline, reflecting a potential slowdown in fiscal fund disbursement [4] Group 4: Downstream Consumption - The transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 7.6% year-on-year compared to the Lunar New Year in 2025, indicating a marginal decline in real estate market activity [5] - High-end liquor demand continues to decline, with prices for premium brands like Moutai dropping by 4.9% [5] - The tourism sector remains robust, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd levels increasing by 69.7% compared to the same period last year, and service consumption prices rising significantly [5] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport volume in ten major cities increased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating strong post-holiday travel activity [6] - National road and rail freight volumes decreased by 9.3% and 0.3%, respectively, while express delivery volumes showed positive growth [6] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 11.7%, reflecting strong domestic export activity, despite a 6.1% decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) due to geopolitical risks [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **AI industry** and its impact on the **U.S. economy** and global macroeconomic conditions [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **AI industry** is characterized as a "profit-sucking pool," heavily reliant on high capital expenditures, which exacerbates labor-capital conflicts in the U.S. and diminishes purchasing power for residents [1][4]. - The **U.S. debt expansion** is constrained, leading to attempts to attract capital back through geopolitical conflicts and a strong dollar, but military weaknesses are undermining the credibility of the dollar [1][3]. - The **current global debt cycle** is under pressure, with the inability to expand debt leading to economic stagnation and increasing internal contradictions, particularly in labor-capital relations [2]. - The **AI sector's high capital intensity** requires substantial profits to sustain its high return on equity (ROE) expectations, which is leading to a concentration of profits in the AI sector at the expense of other economic sectors [2][4]. - The **U.S. government's historical role** in creating demand through debt is now limited, complicating the resolution of supply-demand imbalances caused by technological capital expenditures [2]. Challenges and Risks - The strategy of using **geopolitical conflicts** to resolve internal economic issues is fraught with challenges, including military vulnerabilities that could damage the dollar's credibility over the long term [3]. - Both **weak dollar** and **strong dollar** paths fail to address the core contradictions of the U.S. economy, such as the disconnect between debt cycles, AI development, and real economic demand [3]. - The **AI industry's reliance** on future high ROE to manage current debt levels poses a significant risk; failure to achieve this could lead to unsustainable debt levels [4]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended **asset allocation strategy** focuses on energy and energy-related assets as a defensive measure, with key observation points for oil prices set between **$120 and $160 per barrel** [1][5]. - There is a strong confidence in **Chinese assets**, attributed to their systemic advantages and lack of significant weaknesses, with a focus on long-term valuation potential and high ROE in sectors like insurance and heavy assets [5][6]. - The strategy includes a cautious market outlook, with a willingness to adjust positions based on market conditions, particularly regarding oil prices [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the global geopolitical landscape, particularly focusing on the U.S. strategic priorities and their implications for various markets, including commodities, energy, and financial assets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Strategic Focus for 2026**: The U.S. will prioritize the Western Hemisphere, followed by the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East, aiming to prevent adversarial control over energy routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which is seen as a key indicator of victory in conflicts [1][2][3]. 2. **Market Trading Logic**: The core logic for 2026 trading is driven by "de-dollarization" and increased volatility. De-dollarization involves countries reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds rather than a unilateral bearish outlook on the dollar, which retains its safe-haven status [1][3]. 3. **U.S. Treasury Yield Impact**: A significant policy shift may occur if the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.8%, potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve in 2026, especially as it is a midterm election year [1][4]. 4. **China's Policy Focus**: China aims to strengthen its internal capabilities and long-term planning, with a focus on achieving a GDP growth rate of 4%-4.5% and maintaining a stable CPI around 2% to meet its 2035 goals [1][5]. 5. **Commodity Market Analysis**: The Wenhua Commodity Index is expected to reach a long-term target of 940 points, with gold projected to hit between $6,400 and $7,200. Oil is currently in a corrective phase with a support level at $82, expected to rebound into a fifth wave of growth [1][10][25][24]. 6. **Chemical Sector Valuation**: The chemical sector is currently undervalued compared to historical levels, with a shift in pricing anchors from gold to energy and chemicals, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][29]. 7. **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China is maintaining a moderately accommodative stance, with recent measures to stabilize the yuan and support liquidity through bond purchases [1][8][6]. 8. **Inflation and Market Dynamics**: Current inflationary pressures are influenced by external factors, but domestic demand and employment levels remain weak, limiting the likelihood of a shift in monetary policy [1][7][6]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Strategy**: The U.S. aims to maintain a fragmented Eurasian landscape to prevent the emergence of rival powers, with Russia and Iran playing critical roles in this strategy [2][3]. 2. **Historical Context for Investment Strategies**: Historical investment strategies, such as those proposed by Menger, suggest that investors should seek assets with stable characteristics amid geopolitical tensions, highlighting the relative strength of Chinese assets in the current context [9]. 3. **Technical Analysis in Volatile Markets**: In the current high-volatility environment, technical analysis is emphasized as a crucial tool for decision-making, as it reflects real-time market behavior and can guide trading strategies effectively [10][11][22]. 4. **Commodity Price Trends**: The analysis of commodity prices, particularly oil and agricultural products, indicates a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, with potential for significant price movements based on geopolitical developments and market sentiment [22][23][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic considerations for investors.

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Risk Parity Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to allocate risk equally across asset classes, ensuring that no single asset class dominates the portfolio's risk exposure[4][59]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify risk factors such as growth, inflation, interest rates, and liquidity[59]. - Allocate capital to asset classes (e.g., equities, bonds, commodities) based on their risk contribution rather than nominal weights. - Use derivatives to adjust exposures and maintain risk parity across the portfolio[59]. - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in diversified portfolios, particularly in volatile markets, by balancing risk exposure across asset classes[59]. 2. Model Name: Multi-Factor Framework (Mixed Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines quantitative frameworks with subjective judgment to adjust asset allocation based on macroeconomic and fundamental indicators[58][59]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Use macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, inflation, employment) and alternative data (e.g., climate change, central bank meetings) to generate signals through natural language processing[58]. - Incorporate fundamental indicators such as bond yields, credit risk, earnings growth, and valuation levels for specific asset classes[58]. - Adjust baseline quantitative weights based on subjective views to capture short-term opportunities[58]. - **Model Evaluation**: Provides flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions while maintaining a systematic foundation, offering a balance between stability and opportunism[58]. 3. Model Name: Covered Call Strategy (Income Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on generating stable cash flows by combining equity holdings with options strategies[58]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Invest in high-dividend stocks to capture equity beta returns. - Sell call options on the underlying stocks to generate premium income. - Maintain a balance between equity exposure and option coverage to optimize risk-adjusted returns[58]. - **Model Evaluation**: Suitable for investors seeking stability and income, with lower volatility compared to pure equity strategies[58]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Risk Parity Strategy - **Fidelity Risk Parity Fund**: - 1-month return: -0.09% - 3-month return: 5.20% - 6-month return: 11.51% - YTD return: 4.72% - 1-year return: 21.37% - 1-year volatility: 11.55% - 1-year max drawdown: 3.46% - Return/volatility: 1.85 - Return/max drawdown: 2.29[68] - **Invesco Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund**: - 1-month return: 6.61% - 3-month return: 12.35% - 6-month return: 17.22% - YTD return: 12.62% - 1-year return: 19.20% - 1-year volatility: 8.91% - 1-year max drawdown: 3.74% - Return/volatility: 2.15 - Return/max drawdown: 2.49[68] 2. Multi-Factor Framework (Mixed Strategy) - **PIMCO Global Core Asset Allocation Fund**: - 1-month return: -0.77% - 3-month return: 5.68% - 6-month return: 11.56% - YTD return: 3.68% - 1-year return: 21.30% - 1-year volatility: 9.20% - 1-year max drawdown: 3.58% - Return/volatility: 2.32 - Return/max drawdown: 2.34[68] - **Blackrock Tactical Opportunities Fund**: - 1-month return: 1.69% - 3-month return: 3.38% - 6-month return: 1.19% - YTD return: 2.59% - 1-year return: 7.20% - 1-year volatility: 6.37% - 1-year max drawdown: 2.56% - Return/volatility: 1.13 - Return/max drawdown: 1.27[68] 3. Covered Call Strategy (Income Strategy) - **PIMCO Dividend and Income Fund**: - 1-month return: 0.13% - 3-month return: 5.70% - 6-month return: 10.28% - YTD return: 4.60% - 1-year return: 19.11% - 1-year volatility: 7.56% - 1-year max drawdown: 2.66% - Return/volatility: 2.53 - Return/max drawdown: 2.75[68] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures economic expansion through GDP growth and corporate earnings[59]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Collect macroeconomic data on GDP and corporate earnings. - Normalize data to account for seasonal and cyclical variations. - Use the factor to overweight equities and commodities during periods of strong growth[59]. 2. Factor Name: Inflation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the impact of rising prices on asset classes such as bonds and commodities[59]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Track inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI. - Adjust bond and commodity exposures based on inflation trends. - Hedge inflation risk using TIPS or commodity futures[59]. 3. Factor Name: Liquidity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses market liquidity conditions to optimize asset allocation[59]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Monitor central bank policies, interest rates, and money supply. - Increase exposure to liquid assets during tightening cycles. - Use derivatives to manage liquidity risk[59]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Growth Factor - Positive correlation with equity and commodity returns during periods of economic expansion[59]. 2. Inflation Factor - Strong performance in inflationary environments, particularly for TIPS and commodities[59]. 3. Liquidity Factor - Effective in managing drawdowns during periods of market stress by increasing exposure to liquid assets[59].

Group 1: Upstream Resources - The price of crude oil has surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil futures settling at $92.7 per barrel, reflecting a 27.9% increase [7] - The domestic chemical price index rose by 11.9%, while the crude oil transportation index (BDTI) and refined oil transportation index (BCTI) increased by 54.1% and 75.7%, respectively [7] - Gold and copper prices have declined, with COMEX gold down 1.7% and LME copper down 2.8%, while LME aluminum prices increased by 9.7% due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [11] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The semiconductor sales in January 2026 reached $82.54 billion globally and $22.82 billion in China, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.1% and 47.0%, respectively [18] - The average prices for DRAM DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 showed mixed trends, with DDR3 increasing by 8.0% and DDR4 decreasing by 3.1% [18] - Construction demand has shown signs of marginal decline, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices reported at 3,170 and 3,270 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week change of -0.9% and +0.6% [22] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - The real estate market has seen a marginal decline in transaction volumes, with the transaction area for commodity housing in 30 major cities down 7.6% year-on-year [35] - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have decreased by 4.9% for original and 3.3% for bulk, indicating a drop in demand post-holiday [39] - The service sector remains strong, with travel-related prices significantly increasing, including a 31.1% rise in airfare and a 15.8% increase in travel agency fees [45] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger transport in major cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with the Baidu migration index up 47.5% [47] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 17.5% year-on-year, while international flights have returned to 85.9% of pre-pandemic levels [49] - The SCFI index for shipping prices rose by 11.7%, indicating a strong performance in domestic port throughput, which increased by 6.5% year-on-year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts are disrupting the global supply chain, with the Red Sea crisis and new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz causing shipping disruptions. The impact on global trade is substantial, and the situation in the region continues to escalate [1]. - Domestic automobile production and sales have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, indicating that domestic demand recovery still faces pressure. The US core CPI remains stable, leaving room for monetary policy adjustment [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts and insufficient economic growth momentum are the main challenges for the current global economy. The stability of the supply chain and changes in terminal demand need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 7%. The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. There are differences in stances between the US and Iran regarding the end of military operations. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week, with commercial crude oil inventories down 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026 [2][13]. - **European Line**: EC rose 7.15%. Maersk's new cabin in the 13th week quotes a 20 - foot container to Rotterdam at $2200, while MSC slightly increased the price by $100 to $2740 in the second half of March. The average price of 20 - foot containers in the 12th week is around $2600, corresponding to an index of 1730 points. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][34]. - **Stock Index**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. The previous trading day saw a rise in the stock index, with the coal sector leading the gain and the comprehensive sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.53 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 9.773 billion yuan on March 10. As annual and first - quarter reports are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, and the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, the stock index will return to domestic fundamentals and policies, and is expected to resume an upward trend after geopolitical risks ease [3][10]. 3.2 Daily News 3.2.1 International News - The UN Security Council passed Resolution 2817 on March 12, condemning Iran's attacks on multiple Gulf countries and demanding an immediate halt. Russia and China abstained. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have severely damaged multiple US military bases in the Gulf. US President Trump said the military operation against Iran is "about to end", and Israel's Foreign Minister said Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - The People's Bank of China held a science and technology work meeting on March 11, 2026, summarizing 2025 work and deploying 2026 tasks. It emphasized promoting the application of artificial intelligence in the financial field in a safe and orderly manner [7]. 3.2.3 Industry News - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, down 31.7% and 23.1% month - on - month, and 20.5% and 15.2% year - on - year. Automobile exports were 672,000 vehicles, down 1.4% month - on - month but up 52.4% year - on - year [8]. 3.3 External Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.08%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.98%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 2.44%, London gold decreased by 0.14%, London silver decreased by 2.96%, LME aluminum increased by 1.65%, LME copper decreased by 0.43%, LME zinc decreased by 0.75%, LME tin increased by 0.92%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.70%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.03%, CBOT soybeans increased by 1.29%, CBOT soybean meal increased by 1.41%, CBOT soybean oil increased by 4.15%, CBOT wheat remained unchanged, and CBOT corn increased by 1.95% [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". Stocks without performance support may be weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index will return to domestic fundamentals and policies and is expected to resume an upward trend after geopolitical risks ease [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond rising to 1.8175%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1.4 billion yuan. The US February 2026 non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since December 2025. Global risk - aversion sentiment increased due to the Middle East situation, pushing up inflation expectations and US bond yields. The domestic CPI and PPI increased more than expected. The government's bond issuance scale is large, and the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones are under pressure [11][12]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key varieties section, SC night trading rose 7%, and there are uncertainties in the end of the US - Iran military operation. The G7 has not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves, and US crude oil inventories decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading rose 4.34%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also decreased. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and the expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 260,000 - 270,000 tons [14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded on Wednesday. It is in the low - production season, with domestic and Thai production areas in a state of suspension. The supply elasticity is weak, and raw rubber prices are relatively firm. Demand is expected to recover after the holiday, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded on Wednesday. The spot prices of PE and PP mostly rebounded. The Middle East situation is changeable, and the macro environment has a great impact on the chemical industry [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mostly rebounded. Glass production enterprise inventories increased after the long holiday, and soda ash production enterprise inventories also increased. There is pressure to digest inventories in both industries, and they should respond rationally to the macro impact [17][18]. 3.4.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated and adjusted. The US February CPI was in line with expectations, and inflation expectations cooled after Trump's statement. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.16% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The smelting output is still growing. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be noted [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.04% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the smelting output continued to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is high. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be noted [21]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.68% at night. The US - Iran conflict poses risks to overseas primary aluminum supply. The Strait of Hormuz blockade may cause a regional supply crisis. In the short term, the market is driven by geopolitics, and in the long run, low inventories, supply constraints, and stable demand support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term popularity of lithium carbonate has decreased. The conflict between Iran and Israel has little impact on it. The price will return to the supply - demand fundamentals in the long run and is expected to rise [23][24]. 3.4.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The coking coal supply increased, and the iron - making output decreased due to environmental protection restrictions. The coking coal fundamentals weakened. As the resumption of work progresses, the iron - making output is expected to increase, supporting the price. Geopolitical factors may also push up the value of energy - related commodities [25]. - **Steel**: The Iran - Israel conflict has limited direct impact on domestic steel futures. The core driver of steel prices is domestic demand and the resumption of production of steel mills. The conflict indirectly supports the cost of raw materials, which may drive steel prices to stop falling in the short term, but the long - term trend will return to domestic supply - demand fundamentals [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The conflict mainly affects iron ore through short - term sentiment and cost support. It may reduce the supply and increase the import cost. The price may stop falling in the short term, and the high port inventory should be rationally viewed [27]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slower than the same period. The USDA report is neutral - bullish. The increase in shipping costs supports the price, but the abundant domestic soybean and meal inventories will limit the upward space in the medium term [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils fluctuated weakly at night. The Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and imports in February changed, and the inventory decreased less than expected. The weak export and falling crude oil prices dragged down the performance of edible oils, and the short - term price volatility is expected to be large [29][30]. - **Hogs**: The national hog market continued to adjust weakly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The breeding profit improved marginally [31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated in a range. The Iran situation may affect the ethanol - to - sugar price and the sugar - making ratio. The Brazilian production forecast may be adjusted, and the domestic sugar price is boosted by the external market [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The Middle East situation has an impact, but the long - term supply - demand situation is tight, and the price may rise [33]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: Similar to the key varieties section, EC rose 7.15%. Maersk quotes a lower price, and MSC slightly increased the price. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][34].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is $5182.40, with a change of -$27.30 [1] - London Silver's latest price is $86.23, with a change of -$2.30 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is $2223.00, with a change of $91.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is $1676.00, with a change of $26.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is $87.25, with a change of $3.80 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is $13043.50, with a change of -$32.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.94, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.34, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 158.06, with no change [1] - The latest value of the US 10 - year TIPS is 1.82, with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10716.45, with a change of -23.91 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 251.86, with a change of -7.32 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1077.28, with a change of 3.71 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15539.06, with a change of -115.51 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 458.19, with no change in inventory and a change of -1.00 in deferred - fee payment direction [2] - SGE Gold's deferred - fee payment direction latest value is 2, with no change [2]