【原油】纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨91美分，收于每桶61.04美元，涨幅为 1.51%；1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.10美元，收于每桶65.16美元，涨幅为1.72%。 【加密货币】比特币跌近3%，报102833美元；以太坊跌超4%，报3419.31美元。 【美元指数】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.15%，在汇市尾市收于99.443。截至纽约 汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1590美元，高于前一交易日的1.1561美元；1英镑兑换1.3172美元，低于前一交 易日的1.3180美元。1美元兑换154.09日元，高于前一交易日的154.07日元；1美元兑换0.8001瑞士法郎， 低于前一交易日的0.8048瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4009加元，低于前一交易日的1.4017加元；1美元兑换 9.4514瑞典克朗，低于前一交易日的9.5075瑞典克朗。 【贵金属】现货黄金上涨0.26%，报4126.64美元。 周二，三大指数涨跌不一。美国政府持续超过40天的停摆即将结束。国会通过临时预算案，白宫预计将 在数小时内签署，使联邦政府得以重新开门运作。美国总统特朗普称，这是共和党取 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. has announced a one-year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against Chinese shipbuilding, while China has suspended special port fees for U.S. ships for the same duration, indicating a cooling global trade sentiment [1] - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown, which has improved market risk sentiment and may lead to increased U.S. debt issuance and further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts expect that the Federal Reserve's easing expectations will keep gold prices in a strong upward trend, with a focus on the support level around $4100 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in December, which may support oil prices as the dollar index remains below 100 [3] - Russian oil exports have significantly decreased from 1.41 million barrels per day to 810,000 barrels per day, with exports to India averaging 1.19 million barrels per day, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for oil prices [3] - Global economic uncertainties are decreasing due to trade agreements between the U.S. and other economies, suggesting a potential recovery in oil demand [3] Group 3: Dollar Index - There are internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy, with some supporting rate cuts while others urge caution [4] - Current probabilities indicate a 64.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting continued monetary easing is likely [4] - Recent price action shows a weak trend, but there are signs of potential stabilization near the 20-day moving average, with a focus on the support level around 99.32 [4] Group 4: Copper Market - Recent price action in copper has shown a downward adjustment, but the market has been oscillating above the 62-day moving average, indicating potential stabilization and a bullish outlook [6] - The market has regained the 20-day moving average, suggesting further upward movement is possible, with a focus on the support level around $4.97 [6] Group 5: Market Overview - President Trump has indicated a potential reduction in tariffs on India, signaling progress towards a trade agreement [7] - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on the temporary funding bill, which is crucial for ending the government shutdown [7] - The U.S. has suspended the 301 investigation measures against Chinese shipbuilding for one year, including the suspension of port fees [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market has short - term support, but there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 of next year. Consider short - side strategies after the oil price rebounds again [2]. - Precious metals may continue to build a high - level shock platform due to the lack of strong drivers [3]. - The upward momentum of the copper market in the short - term is decreasing. Consider buying put at - the - money/one - strike out - of - the - money options and selling call options with an execution price of 90,000 to reduce costs [4]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Be vigilant of capital turning [5]. - Other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [8][9][10]. Summary by Catalog Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspending production increase in Q1 of next year boosts market confidence. US government shutdown negotiation progress and geopolitical factors also affect the market. There is short - term support, but supply - demand surplus pressure remains [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term positive sentiment but weak medium - term upward support [22]. - **Asphalt**: Demand is weaker than expected, and social inventory has turned from lower to higher year - on - year. The market is bearish, and the price continues to decline [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamental conditions have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG price [24]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily lack strong drivers and may continue high - level shock [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The upward momentum is decreasing, and inventory has decreased. Consider short - term trading strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with macro - led strong sentiment and limited fundamental resonance [5]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and low inventory supports the external market. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market to rise [8]. - **Lead**: High - level shock, with the far - month contract's center of gravity expected to move up [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, and the stainless - steel market is sluggish [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, but demand is weak. Consider short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - **Alumina**: Supply surplus persists, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for now [6]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price has risen significantly, and the market sentiment has improved. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is expected to shrink more than demand, and the inventory may decrease. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price will continue to fluctuate due to the synchronous contraction of supply and demand [14]. - **Urea**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward price center [25]. - **Methanol**: It may continue to be weak in the short - term, but is easily affected by positive news due to low valuation [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a narrow - range shock at a low level. Pay attention to the port inventory build - up rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but the market is worried about the long - term situation, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand has improved temporarily, but the overall supply is loose, and the price is under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has high supply and weak demand, and may run at a low level. Caustic soda is in a weak operation [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply has recovered, and PTA has improved slightly. There is uncertainty in the short - to - medium - term, so it is advisable to wait and see [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply growth pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. Adopt a bearish view [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but is affected by raw material price increases. Bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. Building Materials Commodities - **Glass**: The price is falling, and the cost has increased. The profit has narrowed, and the daily melting has decreased. Pay attention to the end - of - year rush - work situation [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is in a strong shock in the short - term, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term due to high supply pressure [36]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 of next year. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Palm oil has high - inventory pressure in the short - term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for domestic rapeseed products [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [40]. - **Corn**: The futures price is rebounding at the bottom, but the supply is still loose in the future [41]. - **Pork**: The price may have a seasonal rebound in the short - term, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in H1 of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Try short - selling at high prices and observe the spot market [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen. The Zhengzhou cotton price is in a shock. Pay attention to the US cotton export data [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and pay attention to the sugar production forecast in Guangxi for the new season [45]. - **Apple**: The price is in a wide - range shock. Adopt a bearish strategy due to inventory concerns [46]. - **Timber**: The price is in a weak operation. Low inventory provides support, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Pulp**: The price has risen. The inventory has decreased, and the valuation is low. Consider buying at low prices [48]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes are differentiated, and futures contracts have all risen. Pay attention to the RMB exchange rate and domestic policies [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising in a shock. The yield curve steepening may come to an end [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - **Chemicals**: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - **PX**: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Methanol**: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - **PP**: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - **PL**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. - For rubber, prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - For polypropylene, although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. - For PTA, supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 4.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.07%, at 461.80 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, fuel oil, naphtha, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.73 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 3.97% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 30, in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.5, and in southern Shandong decreased by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 2101 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 41. The 1 - 5 spread was - 6, at - 107 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 1660 yuan, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The report previously suggested buying opportunities in rubber, and prices rebounded as expected. There are different views on the market. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products increased [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 3 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, with a stable basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate increased, and the port inventory decreased. The weighted operating rate of three S decreased, but the PS operating rate increased, while the EPS and ABS operating rates decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene was 6802 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate decreased. The LL1 - 5 spread widened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene increased by 16 yuan to 6480 yuan, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased. The LL - PP spread narrowed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 72 yuan to 6852 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 5 dollars to 828 dollars. The basis was - 90 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was 24 yuan. The PX operating rate in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. The PTA operating rate decreased. PX imports from South Korea to China increased in October, and inventory increased at the end of September [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 40 yuan to 4704 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan. The PTA operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Social inventory increased in October [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 3953 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4003 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil received favorable support in the shale oil cost price range after US sanctions on Russia, with a nearly 10% increase in WTI crude oil within 3 days. There is still short - term downward risk, but the risk is not large. Once the off - balance - sheet inventory risk is released, it provides a good mid - term layout opportunity. The industry may form a pattern of coordinated price support. The demand in the US is slightly lower than expected in the short term, while the demand in China and India is strong [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Why there is still short - term downward risk in oil prices after sanctions, but the risk is not large? - Global crude oil floating storage has accelerated accumulation after sanctions, and the off - balance - sheet inventory has reached nearly 1 million barrels. Most of it consists of sensitive oil types. With the discount of Russian oil, off - balance - sheet inventory has economic benefits, which may lead to a rapid transfer to on - balance - sheet and cause short - term downward pressure on oil prices. However, there is no risk of inventory accumulation in global visible inventory, so oil prices can still be effectively supported in the shale oil cost range [6]. Why the demand side is turning optimistic? - From the import shipping orders, the Asia - Pacific region (represented by China) has a strategy of buying on dips. It is expected that the imports of China and India will remain strong by the end of 2025, supporting the demand side of oil prices globally. A large part of OPEC's production increase is absorbed by China, and a considerable amount enters the strategic reserve inventory (SPR), providing mid - term bottom support for oil prices. China's SPR demand will be a mid - term highlight, and the US will maintain the strategy of replenishing SPR in the long run [10][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, supply has not yet increased significantly, so short - term bearish sentiment on oil prices should be cautious. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support intention [2] - For methanol, with rising domestic production and high imports, supply pressure increases. Demand is weak, leading to high enterprise and port inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and the high - inventory problem of the 01 contract may further suppress the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, and supply and demand are relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at current low prices. It is advisable to wait and see [5] - For rubber, prices are rebounding as expected. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term long trades on pullbacks. Partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11] - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with poor export prospects. There is continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are falling, while styrene futures prices are rising. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short term due to high - level inventory reduction [16] - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [19] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22] - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory increase in November, with prices mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increases in the medium term [25] - For PTA, continuous inventory accumulation is expected in November, and processing fees are under pressure. There may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is expected to be continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 0.10 yuan/barrel, a 0.02% increase, at 460.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 12.78 million barrels, a 4.17% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 9.22 million barrels, an 8.14% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 24.48 million barrels, a 1.21% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 46.48 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease [5][6] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 15 in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 2112 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 101 [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 23 yuan to 1667 yuan, with a basis of - 67. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16 to - 67 due to news of new export quotas [4] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. The expected resolution of the US government shutdown and the expected easing of Fed funds are macro - bullish factors. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 1.6% [9][10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 4611 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (+19) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.8%, up 2.5%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 81.2%, up 3.8%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.7%, down 0.5%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, down 0.9%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons (-0.3), and social inventory was 104 tons (+1.2) [11] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract was 5422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the basis was - 112 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 6317 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the basis was 33 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 88.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 471.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between EB continuous 1 and continuous 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.93 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PS was 53.50%, up 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 53.95%, down 8.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.60%, down 0.50% [15] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 22 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, down 0.31%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.02 tons, an increase of 7.42 tons; the trader inventory was 5.01 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.85%, down 0.52%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan/ton, an expansion of 2 yuan/ton [18] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 46 yuan/ton, a weakening of 13 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, down 0.61%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.99 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons; the trader inventory was 22.86 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons; the port inventory was 6.46 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.14%, up 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 338 yuan/ton, an expansion of 4 yuan/ton [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6780 yuan; PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 823 dollars; the basis was - 61 yuan (+12); the 1 - 3 spread was 2 yuan (+6). The PX load in China was 89.8%, up 2.8%; the Asian load was 80.2%, up 2.1%. The FJDH plant in China and the FCFC plant in Taiwan restarted. The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, an increase of 10.8 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 250 dollars (+11), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 110 dollars (-2) [24] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan (+2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. The downstream load was 91.5%, down 0.2%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 31 was 220.7 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 53 yuan to 167 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 216 yuan [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 18 yuan to 3942 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 41 yuan to 4013 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan (-4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (+3). The ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, down 3.8%; the load of synthetic gas production was 71.9%, down 11.5%; the load of ethylene production was 72.7%, up 0.7%. The import arrival forecast was 18.9 tons, and the East China departure on November 6 was 1.1 tons. The port inventory was 56.2 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 825 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 540 yuan [29]

Group 1 - The sentiment index for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is declining from high levels, with a decrease in the VIX for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Current institutional focus is on the defense and military industry, while attention in the telecommunications sector has decreased from high levels [1] - There has been an increase in institutional interest in the "oil and petrochemicals," "coal," "steel," "retail," and "non-bank financial" sectors over the past week [1] Group 2 - Many industries are currently at the threshold of triggering congestion indicators, including liquidity, constituent stock diffusion, and constituent stock consistency [1] - The relative returns for electric power and utilities, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, electronics, and computers are expected to be favorable by November 2025 [1] - The VIX for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil has decreased, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [1]