Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's economic performance was below expectations, with exports being the highlight, but the export growth rate is likely to decline in the future. To maintain rapid economic growth in the second half of the year, domestic demand needs to continue to play a role [5][12][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June and 9.2% in 2024. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June and 4.4% in 2024. Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and the 7.5% in January - June. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and the 11.2% decline in January - June [2][6]. - In July, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, compared with a 5.1% increase in the previous month. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, compared with a 2.0% increase in the previous month [6]. Real Estate - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 3.5% in January - June and 12.9% in 2024. Since June, the decline rate of the national new - house sales area has accelerated. In July, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19% year - on - year [3][8]. - In July, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [3][8]. - In July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding from 9.1% in June. The new construction area decreased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 29.5% year - on - year, with the decline rates expanding from June [3][9]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. High - tech manufacturing maintained relatively fast growth, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase in July [10]. Foreign Trade - In July, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.8% and the 5.9% in the previous month. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 0.3% and the 1.1% in the previous month. The trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars [11]. - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year, to the EU by 9.2% year - on - year, to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year, to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year. Exports to non - top five export countries and regions increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall export growth rate [11]. - Considering the front - loading of exports in the first seven months and the relatively high base of export volume in the fourth quarter of last year, China's export growth rate is likely to decline in the future [12]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The growth rates of most categories related to the trade - in policy declined compared with June [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.14% month - on - month in July, compared with a 0.26% decline in June after adjustment [15]. Service Industry and Unemployment Rate - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [19]. - In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [19].

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for July indicates a slowdown in China's economy, with both supply and demand sides experiencing challenges, leading to a mixed outlook for various sectors [1][3]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in July was 3.7%, below the market expectation of 4.8%, influenced by extreme weather and other short-term factors [4][5]. - The growth rate of commodity consumption fell to 4%, with notable resilience in demand for essential goods like grain and oil (8.6%) and home appliances (28.7%) [4][5]. - Service retail sales growth slightly decreased to 5.2%, with cultural and tourism consumption supported by government subsidies [7][8]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, with infrastructure investment at 7.3% and manufacturing investment at 6.2% [9][12]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12%, and sales volume and value of commercial housing also decreased significantly [12][14]. Import and Export - July saw better-than-expected performance in imports and exports, with export growth in dollar terms rising to 7.2%, driven by strong demand from non-US regions [18][19]. - Trade surplus expanded to $98.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [18][19]. Supply - Industrial production showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, supported by resilient exports and government policies [21][22]. - The service sector maintained a growth rate of 6.0%, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth [21][22]. Inflation - Price pressures remained, with CPI inflation at 0% and PPI inflation at -3.6%, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties [23][24]. Outlook - The economic outlook suggests rising uncertainties in external demand and persistent internal demand issues, with recent policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to take effect gradually [25].

文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人 | 屠强 、耿佩璇 事件： 7月，社零当月同比3.7%、预期4.9%、前值4.8%；固定资产投资累计同比1.6%、预期2.7%、前值 2.8%；房地产开发投资累计同比-12%、预期-11.5%、前值-11.2%；新建商品房销售面积累计同比-4%；工 业增加值当月同比5.7%、预期5.8%、前值6.8%。 核心观点：消费、投资数据明显走弱，但工业生产保持相对韧性 社零：国补资金下达较慢致"以旧换新"类商品增速回落，服务消费表现相对较好。 家具（-8.1pct至 20.6%）、家电（-3.7pct至28.7%）回落明显；汽车（-6.1pct至-1.5%）下行或与部分地区暂停汽车置换补 贴（仍保留报废更新补贴）有关。服务消费表现相对稳健，餐饮收入（1.1%）小幅改善，1-7月服务零售 额累计同比（5.2%）保持高位。旅游咨询租赁、交通出行、文体休闲、通讯信息等服务类零售额均保持 两位数增长。 投资：7月增速大幅回落反映短期天气因素扰动，但投资价格回落、设备自然更新周期结束、地产项目减 少等中期影响也值得关注。 7月固定投资当月同比回落4.6pct至-4.7%；极端天气影响施工进度 ...

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a slight contraction in both supply and demand, with GDP growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 5.4%[2] - Industrial value added grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease from 6.8% in the previous month, influenced by extreme weather conditions[2] - The service sector maintained strong growth, with a production index increase of 5.8%[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, significantly down from 6.4% and 4.8% in May and June respectively[2] - Dining revenue growth remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak consumer spending in the restaurant sector[5] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to show diminishing returns, with retail growth in related sectors declining for two consecutive months[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to July was recorded at 1.6%, with real estate investment declining by 12.0%[21] - Infrastructure investment growth was only 3.2%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, with July's investment growth estimated at -5.07%[4] - Manufacturing investment saw a marginal decline of 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with equipment updates being the only positive contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, with sales value dropping by 6.5%[39] - The average price of new homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline, while second-hand home prices continued to fall, indicating unstable demand[39] - Real estate development investment totaled 53,580 billion yuan, with a monthly estimated decline of 17%[45] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, with local household unemployment increasing to 5.3%[58] - The demand for labor from external sources remained strong due to robust industrial production, but uncertainty in future employment needs led to higher local unemployment rates[64]

非农数据揭示劳动力市场现状 受利好非农数据提振，美股三大指数在数据公布后普遍走高。道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均 录得不同程度上涨。投资者普遍认为，就业市场向好意味着消费者信心提升，有助于企业盈利能力回升，从而支撑股 市继续攀升。 此外，强劲的就业数据也缓解了市场对于经济衰退的担忧。部分分析人士指出，只要劳动力市场保持韧性，美国经济 就有望避免陷入衰退。资金流入科技、金融等板块，带动相关股票表现活跃。不过，也有观点提醒，若就业持续过 热，可能促使美联储维持较高利率水平，对未来股市表现构成一定压力。 中叶私募：非农数据公布，美股与黄金走势分化，经济趋势现端倪 美国劳工部最新公布的非农就业数据备受市场关注，这一关键经济指标不仅反映了美国劳动力市场的健康状况，也往 往对全球金融市场产生深远影响。本次非农数据公布后，美股与黄金市场出现了明显的走势分化，成为投资者热议的 话题。通过分析此次数据及其对不同资产类别的影响，可以窥见当前经济趋势的一些端倪。 非农就业数据是衡量美国经济活力的重要晴雨表。每月一次的非农就业报告涵盖农业以外各行业的新增就业岗位数， 是美联储制定货币政策的重要参考依据。本次数据显 ...

装备制造业 同比增长 8.4% 增加值 7月份 服务业较快增长 ▲ d 7月份 全国服务业 同比增长 5.8% 生产指数 同比增长 5.9% 1-7月份 服务业商务活动指数为 50.0% 7月份 市场销售继续增长 ▲ 社会消费品零售总额 38780亿元 7月份 同比增长 3.7% 1-7月份 284238亿元 同比增长 4.8% 7 同比增长 5.2% 1-7月份 服务零售额 固定资产投资继续扩大 ▲ y （文章来源：新华财经） 游玩 8月15日国家统计局发布数据显示 7月份国民经济恢复向好 总的来看,7月份宏观政策发力显效,国民经济克服 外部环境复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利影响,保持 稳中有进发展态势,展现出较强韧性和活力。也要看 到,外部环境复杂严峻,经济运行依然面临不少风险 挑战。 工业生产较快增长 ▲ r 7月份 同比增长 5.7% 全国规模以上 工业增加值 环比增长 0.38% 同比增长 6.3% 1-7月份 全国固定资产投资 1-7月份 (不含农户) 288229亿元 ▲ 同比增长 1.6% 分领域看 制造业投资 房地产开发投资 基础设施投资 同比增长 24 同比增长 25 同比下降12.0% 货 ...

新华财经北京8月14日电（记者董道勇）近日，《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经 营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》两项政策正式发布，备受市场关注。 多位业内人士表示，提振消费是扩大内需的重要发力点，是当前和未来宏观政策的重中之重。两项贷款 贴息政策通过财政和金融的联动，支持促消费、扩内需，释放居民消费潜力，有助于进一步稳定和提升 居民消费弹性。 两项贷款贴息政策释放居民消费潜力 消费是经济增长的重要引擎，是畅通国内大循环的关键环节。今年政府工作报告将"大力提振消费、提 高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为十项重点任务之首。2025年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，正式实施"提振消费专项行动"，并明确"对符合条件的个人消费贷 款和消费领域的服务业经营主体贷款给予财政贴息"。 根据本次实施的《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》，2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日期间，居民 个人使用贷款经办机构发放的个人消费贷款（不含信用卡业务）中实际用于消费的，且贷款经办机构可 通过贷款发放账户等识别借款人相关消费交易信息的部分，可按规定享受贴息政策，年贴息比例为1个 百分点，且最 ...

2024年1至12月份，恒银科技的营业收入构成为：制造业占比69.06%，服务业占比30.35%，其他业务占 比0.59%。 恒银科技（SH 603106，收盘价：10.73元）8月14日晚间发布公告称，公司第四届第七次董事会会议于 2025年8月14日在天津自贸试验区西八道30号恒银金融科技园A座五楼会议室以现场和通讯相结合的方 式召开。会议审议了《关于召开2025年第二次临时股东会的议案》等文件。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

长春高新（SZ 000661，收盘价：102元）8月14日晚间发布公告称，长春高新技术产业（集团）股份有 限公司董事会于近日收到公司董事祝先潮先生的书面辞职报告，基于个人工作原因，祝先潮先生申请辞 去公司第十一届董事会董事职务（原定任期自2024年6月24日至2027年6月23日），辞职后将不再在公司 及控股子公司担任任何职务，其辞职申请自送达董事会之日起生效。 2024年1至12月份，长春高新的营业收入构成为：制药业占比94.07%，房地产占比5.61%，服务业占比 0.32%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...