Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Different commodities show different trends such as upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, influenced by factors like macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [3][6]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payroll data is weak, with positive price trends. For example, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.42 with a daily increase of 1.39%, and the night - session closing price was 784.50 with a 0.52% increase [7][8]. - **Silver**: Shows a slight rebound [7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price. However, Trump's tariff policy on semi - finished copper products may impact the market. The trend strength is neutral [12][14]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an oscillatory band. Trump's plan to fill Fed理事 vacancies may affect the market, with a neutral trend strength [15]. - **Lead**: Continuous reduction in inventory limits price decline, with a neutral trend strength [18]. - **Tin**: Moves within an oscillatory range, with a slightly bearish trend strength [20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within an oscillatory band; Alumina shows a weakening oscillatory trend; Casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, all with neutral trend strengths [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Intensified multi - short competition leads to narrow - range oscillations; Stainless steel returns to fundamentals after the macro - factor fades, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, both with neutral trend strengths [27][28][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price oscillates, with a neutral trend strength [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In a weak pattern, with a bearish trend strength [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term sentiment cools down, and it's necessary to pay attention to news stimuli, with a neutral trend strength [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [43][44][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [48][50]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [51][54]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillates weakly and gives downward concessions; PTA shows a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differences; MEG oscillates unilaterally [61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: With repeated macro - sentiment, it's advisable to mainly build long positions at low levels [62]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal oscillates strongly [64]. - **Soybean**: Rebounds and oscillates [64]. - **Corn**: Runs weakly [66]. - **Sugar**: Narrowly consolidates [67]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [68]. - **Egg**: The bullish expectation for the spot price is dashed, and market sentiment collapses [70]. - **Live Pig**: Maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July and the downward revision of the previous value have strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. With the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, the cost of holding gold has decreased. Global central bank gold - buying demand, fiscal and monetary easing expectations, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are all factors driving the return of gold prices to fundamental strength [3]. - **Copper**: The recent decline in copper prices is due to the US adjustment of copper tariff policies. Although the tariff does not cover core upstream products, the high copper inventory in the US COMEX market may affect the price difference between LME and COMEX. The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week [16]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Macro factors have a negative impact on aluminum. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short - term, while cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation, and its futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the traditional off - season. In the short term, attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Nickel and Its Industry Chain**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and Sino - US economic and trade talks are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and the downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted. Stainless steel has limited decline due to multiple factors [77]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the future [92]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July (73,000 new jobs) and the downward revision of the previous value have increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 89.1%. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields have reduced the cost of holding gold, while long - term support comes from central bank gold - buying demand and fiscal and monetary easing expectations [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures, including prices, price differences, and long - term trends, are presented [4][12][13]. Copper - **Price Influencing Factors**: The US tariff adjustment on copper products has affected copper prices. Although core upstream products are excluded, the high inventory in the US COMEX market may impact the price relationship between different markets. Downstream demand is expected to weaken [16]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures and spot are provided, including data such as the main contract, continuous contracts, and spot premiums and discounts [17][22][25]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are negative for aluminum. Although domestic demand is in the off - season and social inventory is accumulating, the low absolute inventory provides some support, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [37]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is high and in surplus, and inventory is rising. The warehouse receipt problem may be resolved in August, and prices may be weak in the short - term [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decline in the future, providing strong support for alloy prices. The demand from exchange - listed brands is good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as price differences between different contracts, are presented [38][42][48]. Zinc - **Price Influencing Factors**: The supply side is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to macro data and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures and spot, including price differences between different contracts and spot premiums and discounts, are provided [62][70]. Nickel and Its Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index and US copper tariffs are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted [77]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as prices of related products such as nickel ore, nickel sulfate, and stainless steel, are presented [78][83][91]. Tin - **Price Influencing Factors**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate [92]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures and spot, as well as prices of related products such as tin concentrate and solder, are provided [93][99][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Influencing Factors**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as inventory data, are presented [108][111][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures, as well as prices of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are provided [119][120][127].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

Group 1: Report Industry and Overall Information - The report focuses on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, including gold, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and the silicon industry [2] Group 2: Gold Core View - Trump's tariff deadline approaching boosts risk - aversion sentiment, but the rebound of the US dollar index to 100 suppresses the gold price. The market continues to lower the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Global gold investment demand is strong, with a 78% year - on - year increase in Q2, and central bank gold purchases remain a long - term support. The market is cautious before the release of non - farm payroll data [3] Key Points - SHFE gold main contract price data is presented, along with COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio data [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings, SHFE and SGX gold spot - futures spreads, and gold and US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real - yield relationships are shown [8][11] Group 3: Copper Core View - COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper spreads still fluctuate, and the market needs time to determine a reasonable range. High copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, affecting future imports. The price of Shanghai copper is closely linked to LME copper and depends on global macro - policies and expectations. Global tariff policies may impact copper demand and price [15] Key Points - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price differences, are provided [16][19] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap copper price differences are presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given [33] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, low inventory supports the price, but demand is weak and the macro - situation is unclear, so short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate. For alumina, short - term capital games intensify, and investors should control risks. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [35][36][37] Key Points - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [38][44][51] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data, including warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are given [57] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak during the off - season. In the short term, focus on macro - data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [63] Key Points - Zinc futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [64] - Zinc spot price data, including spreads and LME spreads, are given [72] - Zinc inventory data, including warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [76] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The fundamentals of the nickel industry have no significant changes. If nickel - iron prices decline, the supply of nickel - ice may decrease, supporting nickel prices. Stainless steel is supported by cost and inventory reduction, and sulfuric acid nickel has a price - holding sentiment [79] Key Points - Nickel and stainless - steel futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [80] - Nickel spot price, inventory, and related cost - profit data are presented [84][88][92] Group 7: Tin Core View - As the anti - involution heat fades, tin prices may decline slightly. The US copper tariff adjustment has little impact on tin, and the rising US dollar index lowers non - ferrous metal prices [93] Key Points - Tin futures and spot price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [93][98] - Tin inventory data, including warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are given [102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - There are still short - term supply - side disturbances. The production schedule in August is expected to be good. It is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation, and investors should pay attention to market changes and position risks [107] Key Points - Lithium carbonate futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [107][109] - Lithium carbonate spot price data, including various lithium raw materials and product prices, are presented [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, including warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [115] Group 9: Silicon Industry Core View - The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, mainly driven by macro - sentiment [117] Key Points - Industrial silicon spot and futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [118][119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component price data are presented [126][127][128] - Industrial silicon production, inventory, and cost data are given [133][137][147]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The non - US copper market's inventory is low, and the domestic copper inventory is falling, supporting copper prices. However, the demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. For zinc, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is bearish, and short - selling is recommended. Tin has a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - selling positions can be reduced. Lead's price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [4][5][6][7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the domestic anti - involution profit - taking. The trade negotiation has reached many phased agreements, and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic policies. The non - ferrous market is in shock, and attention should be paid to the possible adverse impact of the trade situation and tariff increase [12][13] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium may decline. The non - US market's inventory is low, and the domestic inventory is falling, supporting the price. The demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. The upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][14] - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. The upper pressure range is 22,800 - 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [5][14] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak, and short - selling is recommended. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [6][15] - **Tin**: The supply and demand are both weak, and short - selling positions can be reduced. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton [7][15] - **Lead**: The price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. The lower support range is 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure range is 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [17] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [20][22] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Graphs related to copper inventory, copper concentrate refining fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price are presented [26][27] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to zinc inventory, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market price, and galvanized sheet production seasonality are presented [29] - **Aluminum**: Graphs related to the relationship between aluminum inventory and price, LME aluminum inventory and price, and aluminum spot premium are presented [31][32] - **Alumina**: Graphs related to alumina spot price trend and alumina port inventory change are presented [37] - **Tin**: Graphs related to tin price and spot premium, tin inventory, and tin concentrate processing fees are presented [39][44] - **Lead**: Graphs related to lead concentrate processing fees, lead futures inventory, LME lead premium, and lead spot price are presented [47][48] - **Nickel**: Graphs related to nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium, and LME nickel premium are presented [51][53] - **Stainless Steel**: Graphs related to stainless steel futures inventory and stainless steel spot price are presented [57][58] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Graphs related to the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper are presented [59] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium are presented [61] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Graphs related to aluminum basis, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, the difference between Shanghai aluminum contracts, and the difference between alumina contracts are presented [64][67] - **Tin**: Graphs related to tin basis, the difference between tin contracts, and the tin Shanghai - London ratio are presented [67][69] - **Lead**: Graphs related to the difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead, and the lead Shanghai - London ratio are presented [70] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Graphs related to the nickel Shanghai - London ratio, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel, and the difference between nickel contracts are presented [73][74] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Graphs related to copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [76] - **Zinc**: Graphs related to zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [78][79] - **Aluminum**: Graphs related to aluminum option trading volume, the ratio of call to put positions, historical volatility, and implied volatility are presented [81][83]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]