| 703 | A | 10 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | œ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | . | V | œ | 1 | 1 | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ★★★ | 能源日报 2026年02月04日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 美伊谈判前景依然存在诸多不确定性。美军击落了一架接近林肯号航空母舰的伊朗无人机,而伊朗武装快艇也 在霍尔木兹海峡逼近一艘悬挂美国国旗的船只。伊朗方面提出将谈判地点更改为阿曼,并要求把议题范围收 窄，仅限于核问题的双边会谈。另一方面,泽连斯基指责俄罗斯在停火期间围积弹药,并于和平谈判前夕发动 袭击 ...

印度商业和工业部长皮尤什·戈亚尔2月4日说，鉴于全球形势变化，印度将通过能源来源多元化保障本 国能源安全。 美国总统特朗普2日在社交媒体发文称，根据当天与印度总理莫迪达成的一项贸易协议，印度将停止购 买俄罗斯石油，美国则将把对印度商品加征的所谓"对等关税"税率从25%降至18%。他还说，印度将显 著增加美国石油的采购量并可能从委内瑞拉购买石油。 莫迪同日确认美将下调对印关税，但未就印度停购俄石油一事表态。 戈亚尔4日就上述贸易协议首次向议会作出说明，并未提及印度将停止从任何特定国家购买石油。据路 透社报道，印度炼油厂也尚未接到停止购买俄罗斯石油的政府指令。 俄罗斯方面3日说，尚未听到印度关于停止采购俄石油的任何表态。俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫4日说，印 度宣布石油采购将多元化"并不新鲜"，印度一直从多国购买石油。 分析人士认为，美印基于现实利益达成贸易协议，但作为世界第三大石油消费国和进口国，印度很难完 全停止购买俄石油。（新华社） ...

资本回报率已低于资本成本，行业不可持续 当前油价下，行业的资本回报率(ROACE)已经低得惊人。 伯恩斯坦的测算显示，石油行业平均需要50-55美元/桶的油价才能实现盈亏平衡。如果油价维持在60美元/桶，行业的资本回报率将仅为低至中个 位数。 回顾历史，2019年油价为64美元/桶时，资本回报率仅为6%;而2024年油价平均81美元/桶时，回报率才达到11%。 考虑到行业过去100年的平均资本回报率约为10%，当前的低回报率意味着资本正在流出该行业。根据周期性投资手册，当资本回报率低于资本成 本且资本开始撤离时，正是投资者入场的最佳时机。 当下的原油市场正处于一种极度分裂的状态：共识极度悲观，但基本面却在暗流涌动。 伯恩斯坦在最新的报告中直言不讳地指出，目前市场上确实存在一个巨大的看空理由——供过于求。中国需求的疲软、OPEC减产的解除以及非 OPEC国家供应的强劲增长，导致去年石油库存增加了超过4亿桶(>100万桶/日)。市场共识因此大幅下调了2025年的油价预期，甚至有分析师预测 2026年布伦特原油将跌至61美元/桶。 然而，这正是逆向投资者的机会所在。伯恩斯坦认为，当市场盯着短期的供需失衡时，却忽视了 ...

India's Russian oil imports slipped in January, continuing a downturn that began in December as refiners sought more alternative barrels under Western sanctions pressure and ongoing U.S.–India trade t... ...

2026年1月底，因为路透社的消息显示，我国石油企业中石油已经要求暂停购买或者交易委内瑞拉原 油。显然，中国出手的对象不是委内瑞拉，而是把油能不能进中国市场，当作战略筹码的美国算计。 起因要追溯到美国试图接管委内瑞拉石油出口许可的那套"卖油换规则"的操作。 他们想玩"资源代理人"的老把戏，一边施压委内瑞拉听从指挥，一边想拉中国背书新价格体系。目标很 清楚，用委原油填补市场，同时借机坐上话语权主位。 不好意思，中国根本不陪这场戏。 阅读须知：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解析，旨 在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解。） 这不是一场石油买卖那么简单，这是一次对全球资源话语权的正面较量。 而中国这次，没有闪躲，没有妥协，干脆利落地打出一记"禁令牌"。 船不靠岸，合同不推进，资金不流转。看到这一步，特朗普的脸变了，话风也猛地一拐。 这到底发生了什么？ 中国拒绝为"单方面设定、没有共识的价格和契约体系"站台，更不会在美方主导的清算体系里当角色球 员。 结果，画虎不成反类犬。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are fluctuating as traders weigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against a significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories [1][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices have risen to $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $63 [5] - Geopolitical tensions are identified as a core driver of current market conditions, with market fundamentals suggesting oil prices should be lower [6] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Iran has requested to move diplomatic talks with the U.S. from Turkey to Oman, focusing solely on its nuclear program, following the U.S. downing of an Iranian drone [5][6] - U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Iran if an agreement is not reached [5] - A U.S.-flagged tanker was recently harassed by Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting escalating tensions [8] Group 3: U.S. Oil Inventory Data - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease of 11.1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which, if confirmed by official data, would mark the largest decline since June [6] - The current oil prices are believed to include a geopolitical risk premium of $5 to $10 per barrel due to expectations of potential U.S. strikes on Iran [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near term due to factors such as the OPEC+ production plan, US inventory changes, economic growth forecasts, geopolitical risks, and the weakening of the current cold snap [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [1]. - Despite the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [1][3]. - The International Monetary Fund raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points last week, and cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns [1]. - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. The EIA's latest January report raised the surplus margin for 2026 [1]. - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical risks in Iran remain highly uncertain. Although there were signs of negotiation, there were also recent military - related incidents such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and reports of Iranian armed boats trying to stop a US - flagged oil tanker [1]. - The next round of Ukraine - issue negotiations will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4th to 5th [1]. - The US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% immediately. India may increase crude oil purchases from the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East [1]. - The power supply system of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been safely restarted, and the repair of the CPC 3rd offshore mooring terminal has been completed. However, the operator said that only half of the oilfield's production capacity can be restored by February 7th [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 2.80% to 462.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 451.7 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 466.7 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume decreased by 5245 to 27679 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3]. - According to EIA data on January 28th, for the week ending January 23rd in the US, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels), heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of January 23rd decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4]. - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4]. - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4]. - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On February 4, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals such as silver, gold, and copper showed significant increases, while some agricultural products and bonds declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand and market factors affecting their prices. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, production policies, and seasonal demand changes [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - **Futures Market Overview**: As of February 4, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals like silver, gold, platinum, and palladium had substantial gains, while some agricultural products like rapeseed meal and rapeseed declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, and bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts such as silver 2604 and gold 2604, and flowed out of contracts such as CSI 2603 [7][8]. Market Analysis - **Copper (SHFE)**: Copper prices continued to rise due to news of improving the copper resource reserve system and the rebound of external precious metals. In January, the production of electrolytic copper increased year - on - year, and it is expected to decrease slightly in February. The demand was affected by high prices in January, but the long - term outlook for copper is positive [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate showed a narrow increase. The production rate was high, but the monthly output decreased. Some lithium mines were shut down for rectification, and the inventory continued to decline. The downstream demand was strong, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ members will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although the demand is in the off - season, the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global economy growth forecast was raised, and the demand concern was alleviated, but the supply is still in an oversupply situation [14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate and shipment volume decreased, and the inventory rate remained low. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil was restricted, which affected production and cost. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and fluctuate, and it is recommended to take reverse arbitrage [16]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate was at a medium - low level, and the inventory was at a low level in recent years. Due to the unstable geopolitical situation and the rebound of crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [18]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate of plastic decreased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [19]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate of PVC increased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export orders increased, but the social inventory was still high. It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the policy and market sentiment [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal rose. The production and import decreased marginally, and the inventory of mines decreased. The downstream winter storage was in the final stage, and the next round of coke price increase is expected to be difficult [24]. - **Urea**: The price of urea turned red at the end of the day. The production was higher than the same period in previous years, and the upstream factory's order - attracting pressure increased. The inventory decreased before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be weakly stable before the festival [25].

大家好，我是小汉。 谁还记得，美国上一次靠抢资源就能让全世界买单是什么时候？ 2026年1月底，特朗普政府用一场突袭行动拿下委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，随即宣布接管该国石油出口。 几天后，白宫放话：欢迎中国继续买油，但价格得按美国定的来，每桶从30美元涨到45美元，交易必须 走美方账户，合同得用美国法律。 结果呢？中方直接一纸禁令：所有委内瑞拉原油，暂停进口，不准靠岸。 这记回击干脆利落，没吵没闹，却让特朗普精心设计的"高价转卖"剧本，连第一幕都没演完就卡了壳。 美国想当"石油房东"，但没人签租约 事情的转折点发生在1月27日前后，多家国际媒体披露，中国主要石油企业已内部通知交易员：停止一 切与委内瑞拉原油相关的采购操作。 这不是试探，也不是观望，而是彻底切断流，船不接、钱不付、合同不签。 为什么反应这么快？因为美国的动作太出格。 在控制马杜罗后，美方迅速指定托克和维多两家大宗商品巨头代理销售委内瑞拉石油，并由美国财政部 直接监管资金流向。 这已经不是"制裁"或"出口管制"的范畴，而是赤裸裸的资源接管。 美国把委内瑞拉的国家资产当成战利品，再包装成"合规商品"对外出售。 中国作为过去多年委内瑞拉最大买家，自然成了首要 ...

Group 1 - The large selling pressure from major funds has been alleviated, leading to a market recovery in February [3] - The A-share market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 4100 points and showing upward momentum [3] - The significant reduction in selling pressure is attributed to national-level measures addressing the selling from reduced holdings, indicating a potential end to large-scale sell-offs [3] Group 2 - The trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF has dropped to around 2%, suggesting that major funds are no longer selling [3] - The sustained low turnover rate of the CSI 300 ETF reflects a stable and sustainable market condition [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday and the National People's Congress are expected to limit the likelihood of new large-scale sell-offs [3]