1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals leading the gains. International precious metals and oil futures generally rose, while London base metals mostly declined. In the financial market, A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performances, and overseas markets also had various trends. Macroeconomic data from different countries and regions showed different situations, and there were many policy - related and event - driven factors in various industries [5][26][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals like Shanghai silver up over 11%, Shanghai gold up over 7%, and platinum and palladium up over 6%. At night - session close, crude oil futures rose over 3% and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 1.04% and COMEX silver up 5.36%. The US oil and Brent oil main contracts rose 1.99% and 2.09% respectively. London base metals mostly fell [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China's service industry PMI in January rose slightly to 52.3, continuing the expansion trend. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. The People's Bank of China held a credit market work meeting. The US Department of Labor resumed normal operation. US private - sector employment in January increased less than expected. The US Treasury maintained the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion. The EU's investigation of Chinese enterprises using the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" was of concern. China and the US leaders had a phone call. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report were rescheduled [9][11] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 4, 2026, China's methanol port inventory decreased to 1411,000 tons. Morgan Stanley raised the short - term Brent oil price forecast. The EIA report showed a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic petroleum reserve inventory [13][15] Metal Futures - Goldman Sachs believed there was a significant upward risk to the December 2026 gold price forecast. An Indonesian organization urged to stop the approval of a mining company's quota. Goldman Sachs and Macquarie raised the 2026 nickel price forecasts. The US planned to establish a key - mineral price - floor system. A Reuters survey showed that gold was expected to reach a new high in 2026 [17][18] Black - Series Futures - As of the week ending February 4, national building - material production and apparent demand decreased. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports due to a production - cut plan [21] Agricultural Product Futures - China will stabilize farmers' income from growing grain. India's sugar mills may not sell all the quota, but still expect to export over 1 million tons. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline in January [23] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose on Wednesday, with coal and photovoltaic sectors surging. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly. The number of new margin trading accounts in January increased. The HKEX CEO said there were over 400 companies queuing for listing [26] Industry - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will develop affordable housing. In January, the transaction volume of second - hand houses in 20 cities was relatively active, but there were structural contradictions. China will support the biomanufacturing industry. The cultural and tourism and fire - rescue departments issued a notice on new - type performance venues. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000 [27][29][31] Overseas - Iran - US nuclear talks will be held in Oman. The release dates of US economic data were rescheduled. The Fed will not adjust large - bank capital levels in 2026. The nomination process of the Fed chair nominee was controversial. The US service industry PMI in January fell slightly. The US proposed to raise the loan limit of the Export - Import Bank. The eurozone CPI in January rose at a low level. Cambodia launched an anti - telecom - fraud campaign [32][34][36] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with AMD's sharp drop dragging down the Nasdaq. European stocks also had mixed performances. The South Korean composite index hit a new high. The Nasdaq proposed a "fast - track inclusion" rule. Some companies' financial reports and outlooks were released, with different performances [37][39][40] Commodities - Domestic and international precious metals and oil futures mostly rose, while London base metals mostly fell. Zhongcai Futures made over $500 million from short - selling silver futures. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports [44][46] Bonds - The yields of bank - to - bank bonds fluctuated slightly, and Treasury bond futures fell. China will issue RMB 14 billion of Treasury bonds in Hong Kong. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale, and US bond yields fluctuated [47][48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. South Korea's foreign - exchange reserves decreased in January [51] Upcoming Data Releases - Various economic data from different countries and regions will be released at specific times, including stock and bond purchases, trade accounts, manufacturing orders, etc [53] Upcoming Events - There are many events scheduled for February 5 and subsequent days, including central - bank interest - rate decisions, press conferences, corporate earnings releases, and industry seminars [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market fluctuated and then rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan, and the pro - cyclical sectors were strong. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.15%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.83%, and the SSE 50 index rose 1.14%. Recent economic control policies provide fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - term. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading increases risk - aversion sentiment, and the market enters a high - level shock mode with increased short - term volatility [1]. - On Wednesday, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02%. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. Against the background of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a shock state. The recent economic control policies from various departments support the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools is beneficial to relevant sectors. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading increases market volatility, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly wait and see [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a shock state. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. The bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the interest rate range - shock pattern continues [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Category | Instrument | 2026 - 02 - 04 | 2026 - 02 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index Futures | IH | 3,071.8 | 3,033.0 | 38.8 | 1.28% | | | IF | 4,693.6 | 4,653.0 | 40.6 | 0.87% | | | IC | 8,313.6 | 8,282.0 | 31.6 | 0.38% | | | IM | 8,203.4 | 8,183.0 | 20.4 | 0.25% | | Stock Index | SSE 50 | 3,069.2 | 3,034.6 | 34.7 | 1.14% | | | SSE 300 | 4,698.7 | 4,660.1 | 38.6 | 0.83% | | | CSI 500 | 8,299.1 | 8,286.7 | 12.4 | 0.15% | | | CSI 1000 | 8,207.1 | 8,209.1 | - 2.0 | - 0.02% | | Treasury Bond Futures | TS | 102.40 | 102.41 | - 0.016 | - 0.02% | | | TF | 105.85 | 105.91 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | | | T | 108.24 | 108.26 | - 0.02 | - 0.02% | | | TL | 111.70 | 111.96 | - 0.26 | - 0.23% | [3] 3.3 Market News On February 3, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development and the Communist Youth League Central Committee held a symposium. The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that it is necessary to ensure the basic housing needs of young people through measures such as "a bed, a room, a set of housing" to make young people stay and start businesses. On one hand, it is necessary to develop rental - type affordable housing and public rental housing; on the other hand, for young people with certain economic affordability, develop affordable housing for sale [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their monthly basis trends [5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [20][21][22][23][25][26].

Index Trends - On February 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to close at 4102.2 points with a trading volume of 1063.545 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% to close at 14156.27 points with a trading volume of 1417.426 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.02% with a trading volume of 516.215 billion yuan, opening at 8184.2, closing at 8207.12, with a high of 8216.2 and a low of 8101.2 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.15% with a trading volume of 501.887 billion yuan, opening at 8270.84, closing at 8299.06, with a high of 8309.86 and a low of 8179.35 [1] - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.83% with a trading volume of 636.019 billion yuan, opening at 4647.97, closing at 4698.68, with a high of 4701.48 and a low of 4641.84 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.14% with a trading volume of 169.882 billion yuan, opening at 3033.55, closing at 3069.24, with a high of 3070.17 and a low of 3030.34 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 rose -1.98 points from the previous close. Power equipment, public utilities, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly boosted the index, while media, electronics, and computer sectors pulled it down [2] - The CSI 500 rose 12.36 points from the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, coal, and automobile sectors significantly boosted the index, while computer, media, and electronics sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 300 rose 38.57 points from the previous close. Power equipment, food and beverage, and banking sectors significantly boosted the index, while communication and electronics sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 rose 34.66 points from the previous close. Food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking sectors significantly boosted the index, while the electronics sector pulled it down [2] Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Cost of Opening Positions - IM00 average daily basis was -5.88, IM01 was -37.83, IM02 was -194.47, IM03 was -346.69 [13] - IC00 average daily basis was -6.39, IC01 was -28.63, IC02 was -123.59, IC03 was -231.61 [13] - IF00 average daily basis was -4.7, IF01 was -11.25, IF02 was -37.8, IF03 was -89.59 [13] - IH00 average daily basis was -1.2, IH01 was -1.96, IH02 was -8.69, IH03 was -38.43 [13]

周三，此前市场挤出杠杆头寸后贵金属延续周二的震荡修复行情，当前市场处于技术性超跌后 的空头回补与头寸重建，此外就近两天回调幅度来看目前投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。 2026 年 1 月 ADP 数据显示，美国私营部门仅新增 2.2 万个就业岗位，增幅远低于预期，印证了 劳动力市场的持续放缓。ADP 报告明确指出，私营部门仅新增 2.2 万人，若非教育医疗行业贡 献 7.4 万人的增长形成支撑，整体就业数据将陷入负增长。从行业表现来看，制造业、专业/ 商业服务等非刚需行业持续处于收缩状态，大型企业裁员现象突出，这一态势充分凸显出美国 劳动力市场正在逐步放缓；不过，教育医疗等刚需行业仍保持较强韧性。 由于 1 月非农就业报告的延期发布，ADP 数据大幅不及预期无疑将强化对美国经济放缓的判断， 叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加快的预期。但另一方 面，教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑，加之 ISM 非制造业 PMI 也未出现显著恶 化，表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性，美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。 美国财政部季度再融资声明维持长期国债发行规模不变，且未释放削减长期债券供 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the space photovoltaic technology is in the early stage of exploration and verification, and it's too early to determine a clear technical direction. Currently, GaAs batteries are the mainstream choice for commercial aerospace and space stations, while HJT perovskite technology is still far from large - scale commercialization [1]. - In the service industry, the 2026 Credit Market Work Conference of the People's Bank of China required to accurately grasp the economic and financial situation changes in the 15th Five - Year Plan period, strengthen financial services in key areas, and develop various types of finance [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Upstream - **有色 (Non - ferrous metals)**: The price of electrolytic copper fluctuates, and the price of nickel continues to fall. The spot price of copper on February 4 is 104,786.7 yuan/ton, up 3.11% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc is 24,886.0 yuan/ton, down 1.39% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum is 23,780.0 yuan/ton, down 2.00% year - on - year; the spot price of another type of aluminum is 16,481.3 yuan/ton, down 2.26% year - on - year [3][36]. - **农业 (Agriculture)**: The price of eggs has a callback. On February 4, the spot price of eggs is 7.7 yuan/kg, down 10.08% year - on - year. The spot price of corn is 2,267.1 yuan/ton, down 0.19% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil is 9,074.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton is 16,016.3 yuan/ton, down 0.59% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork is 18.4 yuan/kg, down 0.92% year - on - year [3][36]. - **黑色 (Black commodities)**: Black commodities decline slightly. The spot price of螺纹钢 (rebar) on February 4 is 3,177.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% year - on - year; the spot price of铁矿石 (iron ore) is 805.6 yuan/ton, down 0.38% year - on - year; the spot price of线材 is 3,377.5 yuan/ton, down 0.88% year - on - year [3][36]. B. Midstream - **化工 (Chemical industry)**: The operating rates of PX and urea remain at high levels. On February 4, the spot price of PTA is 5,151.1 yuan/ton, down 3.08% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,930.0 yuan/ton, up 0.36% year - on - year; the spot price of urea is 1,777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.43% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash is 1,201.4 yuan/ton, down 0.12% year - on - year [3][36]. - **能源 (Energy)**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level. The coal price on February 4 is 800.0 yuan/ton, down 0.50% year - on - year; the spot price of WTI crude oil is 63.2 dollars/barrel, up 1.31% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 67.3 dollars/barrel, up 1.11% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3,728.0 yuan/ton, up 3.61% year - on - year [3][36]. - **农业 (Agriculture)**: The operating rate of pork products increases [3]. C. Downstream - **地产 (Real estate)**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decline seasonally [3]. - **服务 (Service)**: The number of domestic flights is at a high level [3].

转自：新华财经 •宝城期货：黄金市场进入一个"长期叙事未改，但短期估值承压"的复杂博弈阶段 •瑞达期货：贵金属市场或重回宏观和基本面主导的定价框架 •五矿期货：贵金属延续震荡修复行情 五矿期货表示，当前贵金属市场处于技术性超跌后的空头回补与头寸重建，就近两天回调幅度来看目前 投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。由于1月非农就业报告的延期发布，ADP数据大幅不及预期无疑将 强化对美国经济放缓的判断，叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加 快的预期。但另一方面，教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑，加之ISM非制造业PMI也未 出现显著恶化，表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性，美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。贵金属延续震 荡修复行情，在空头回补过程中市场风格偏谨慎。 彭博经济（Bloomberg Economics）高级市场策略师迈克·麦克格隆（Mike McGlone）在其最新的贵金属 报告中表示，虽然他不排除金价涨至每盎司6000美元的可能性，但更有可能的是，金价将测试每盎司 4000美元的支撑位。麦克格隆解释称，1月份金银价格的抛物线式上涨，不仅使金价进入明显超买区 域，而且金价的涨 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-02-05 待美生柴政策指引，盘面震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9138.00元/吨，环比变化+44元，幅度+0.48%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8140.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.67%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9243.00元/吨，环比变化+28.00元，幅度+0.30%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9070.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.44%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -4.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8420.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+280.00， 环比变化-14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9990.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.20%，现货基差 OI05+747.00，环比变化-8.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：政策周期与听证安排：美国国税局发布45Z生物税收抵免拟议规则，将进行为期60天的公众评 议，并定于2026年5月28日举行听证会。该政策适用期限至2029年12月31日截止。SAF生产限制：禁止使用棕榈脂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume and positions of various sectors in the market showed different changes. The trading volume of the stock index, basic metals, precious metals, energy - chemical, and agricultural product sectors decreased, while the trading volume of the national debt and black building materials sectors increased. The positions of the basic metals, precious metals, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors increased, while the positions of the stock index and national debt sectors decreased [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position volume, position amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5][6][8] II. Stock Index Plate - Figures display the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5][18][19] III. National Debt Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the national debt plate [5][24][26] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - Figures present the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5][31][34] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy - chemical plate [5][36][43] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - Figures display the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [5][50][52] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][55][65]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-05原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1. 美国总统特朗普对NBC新闻表示，伊朗最高领袖"应该非常担心"。特朗普发言后，美伊双方官员表示，双方已 同意于周五在阿曼举行会谈。然而双方仍存分歧：美国坚持将伊朗的导弹武器库纳入谈判范围，而伊朗则表示 只愿讨论其核计划。近几日，围绕会谈范围与地点的分歧引发外界质疑谈判能否如期举行，也让特朗普可能付 诸对伊朗动武威胁的可能性仍未排除。 2. 习近平周三同美国总统特朗普通电话。据新华社报道，习近平在通话中告诉特朗普，他愿在新的一年里同特朗 普"多办一些大事、好事"。习近平还强调，台湾问题是中美关系中最重要的问题。美方务必慎重处理对台军售 问题。习近平与普京视频会晤称：中俄要密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作习近平周三同俄罗斯总统普京举 行视频会晤。习近平表示，中俄双方要把握历史契机，密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作，以更深层次的战 略协作和更加积极有为的大国担当，确保中俄关系继续沿着正确轨道不断发展。俄 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatility of the two - level options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of the implied volatility of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile Data - Implied volatility quantile data is presented for various items such as 500E, 50E, 1000 ta za, 300 index, and rebar [7]