Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: July 15, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13820 with a 5-point increase, volume of 59,553 hands (up 21286), and open interest of 215,751 (up 1145) [3] - CF05 closed at 13785 with a 5-point decrease, volume of 1,874 hands (up 958), and open interest of 10,369 (up 132) [3] - CF09 closed at 13850 with a 25-point decrease, volume of 207,411 hands (up 68734), and open interest of 546,688 (down 11044) [3] - CY01 closed at 20035 with a 35-point decrease, volume of 21 hands (down 15), and open interest of 92 (up 1) [3] - CY05 closed at 0 with no change, volume of 0 hands, and open interest of 2 (no change) [3] - CY09 closed at 20050 with a 70-point decrease, volume of 7077 hands (up 1693), and open interest of 21168 (down 1042) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 15302 yuan/ton, up 36 [3] - Cot A was at 78.05 cents/pound, down 0.40 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was at 76.62, down 0.30 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12600 yuan/ton, no change [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 35 (up 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 65 (up 20), 9 - 1 spread was 30 (down 30) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20035 (down 35), 5 - 9 spread was - 20050 (up 70), 9 - 1 spread was 15 (down 35) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6215 (down 40), CY05 - CF05 was (13785) (up 5), CY09 - CF09 was 6200 (down 45) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1508 (up 77), sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 822 (up 53), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1589 (down 14) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending July 12, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 13.6% (up 6.3 percentage points week - on - week, 3.1 percentage points slower than last year) [6] - As of July 13, the budding rate of US cotton in 15 major planting states was 61% (1 percentage point slower than last year and the five - year average), the boll - setting rate was 23% (3 percentage points slower than last year, 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 54% (9 percentage points higher than last year, 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average) [6] - CONAB's July 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production forecast was 393.8 million tons (up 2.5 million tons from the previous month), with planted area at 2.0838 million hectares and yield at 126 kg/mu [6] Trading Logic - US cotton may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential upside due to possible trade negotiations and weather factors [7] - Zhengzhou cotton may face limited upside due to average downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas, despite low current supply [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish and range - bound in the short term [8] - Arbitrage: Hold off [9] - Options: Sell put options [9][15] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton greige fabric market has been sluggish, with low sales, high inventory, few orders, and low loom operation rates [11] - The pure - cotton yarn market has seen little change, with stable prices, low downstream purchases, and continued production cuts by inland spinning mills [11] Group 4: Options Option Data - CF509C13800.CZC closed at 180.00 (down 41.9%), with an implied volatility of 9.3% [13] - CF509P13600.CZC closed at 62.00 (down 50.8%), with an implied volatility of 9.7% [13] - CF509P13000.CZC closed at 16.00 (up 23.1%), with an implied volatility of 14.3% [13] Volatility - The 10 - day HV of Zhengzhou cotton was 3.2429, slightly lower than the previous day [13] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9770, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7034, with increased trading volume for both calls and puts and a rise in bearish sentiment [14] - Recommend selling put options [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have limited changes, with reduced market volatility. The soybean meal futures price is driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures price is affected by the uncertainty of future supply. The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly concentrated in South America. The domestic spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. The report provides trading strategies, including suggesting to exit long positions and positive spreads, and to wait and see for options [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong trend. After the monthly supply - demand report showed negative news, the market rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean market and market information, while the rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of future supply. The inter - month spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends [2]. Fundamentals - The adjustment of the US soybean new - crop balance sheet was negative, with lower exports and higher crushing, and a slight increase in ending stocks. As of July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The export inspection volume of old - crop US soybeans was 389,400 tons as of July 3. The May US soybean crushing data was good, with a 1.37% month - on - month increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers was slow, and the recent selling progress continued to slow down, with price pressure emerging. Brazilian soybean crushing decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. Argentina's domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the international soybean supply pressure is concentrated in South America [3]. - The domestic spot market was relatively loose. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons (a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons (a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and although the supply is uncertain, the demand is also weakening, so it is expected to be in a volatile state [5]. Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear information, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainty. The domestic soybean meal futures had some support, but the rebound space was limited. The US soybean futures were expected to have limited deep - decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads of the futures may face some pressure but also have limited deep - decline space. The rapeseed meal market was mainly affected by supply uncertainty, and it was difficult to show a strong trend. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen, and the inter - month spread of rapeseed meal futures may also face pressure [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 positive spread and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7].

Report Overview - The report is a corn starch daily report dated July 15, 2025, focusing on corn and corn starch markets, including data, market analysis, trading strategies, and option strategies [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The US corn planting is completed, and the US corn market is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price continues to decline, and weather factors may become a future market driver. In China, the import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has declined, and the supply in North China is expected to be tight. The corn starch inventory has increased, and the price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. In the short - term, the 09 corn will oscillate, and the basis will strengthen, with potential for a rebound. The 09 starch's decline space is limited [4][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, C2509 and corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, CS2509 all showed price declines on July 15, 2025. For example, C2601 closed at 2236, down 2 (-0.09%), and CS2601 closed at 2605, down 5 (-0.19%). The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the open interest of some contracts increased [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions had different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang decreased by 10 to 2230, while that in Shouguang increased by 10 to 2454. Corn starch spot prices remained stable. The basis of corn and corn starch showed different values in various regions [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - term spreads, corn starch inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads all had price changes. For example, C01 - C05 spread was - 36, down 2, and CS09 - C09 spread was 346, up 1 [2] 3.2 Second Part: Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is affected by planting completion, tariff reduction, and potential weather speculation. In China, the import profit of foreign corn is high, the northern port price is stable, the Northeast spot price has declined, the North China supply is tight, and the domestic breeding demand is weak. The 09 corn futures continue to decline, but there is potential for a rebound due to tight supply in North China [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased, with a monthly increase of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 26.97%. The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The 09 starch futures are weakly oscillating, and the decline space is limited [7] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Domestic 09 corn will have narrow - range oscillations, and a light - position short - term long position in 09 corn can be considered. Arbitrage: Close the position of buying spot and shorting 09 corn, and widen the spread between 09 corn and starch at low levels for oscillating operations [8][9] 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options - Option Strategy: Spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [12] 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [14][16][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA July report was bearish, raising the U.S. soybean inventory digestion rate to 7.1% and the global soybean inventory digestion rate to 20.57%. Despite this, the short - term weather in the U.S. soybean - growing areas is normal for growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, domestic soybean crushing in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September. The buying of soybeans from October to January is slow. On the demand side, the short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, and the high cost - performance of soybean meal increases its proportion in feed, with high - level提货. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices. Overall, the soybean meal inventory continues to rise, but the accumulation speed has slowed down slightly. The short - term inventory pressure is expected to keep the spot basis oscillating at a low level. The M01 contract is recommended to be bought on dips as the import cost is expected to support it [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Basis Data - For the soybean meal main - contract basis (Zhangjiagang), the Dalian value was - 52 with a change of - 36 on July 14. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 162 with a change of - 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 119 with a change of - 6 [6]. b. Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - 1 being - 29, M9 - RM9 being 10, RM9 - 1 being 355, the spot spread (Guangdong) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal being 333, and the盘面 spread (main) being 260 [7]. c. International Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, the U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, and the盘面 profit of imported soybeans are shown. For example, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is 74.00 (in cents per bushel), the exchange rate is 7.1693, and the盘面 profit of imported soybeans is 268 yuan/ton [7]. d. Inventory Data - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are provided, showing trends from 2020 - 2025. Currently, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal is in an inventory - accumulation cycle, with the feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days increasing [7][8]. e.开机 and压榨情况 - Data on the major oil - mill soybean crushing volume and开机 rate from 2020 - 2025 are presented, indicating the开机 and crushing situation in the industry [7]. f. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA July report was bearish, but short - term weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas is favorable. Brazilian soybean arrivals will lead to high - volume domestic crushing in July and August, with inventory - accumulation pressure until September and slow buying from October to January. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, high cost - performance of soybean meal increases its proportion in feed, but wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recent low - price trading volume of soybean meal has increased [7][8].

油料日报 | 2025-07-15 油料市场情绪稳定，价格持续震荡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4131.00元/吨，较前日变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.73%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+169，较前日变化-30，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙 江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，东北地区大豆价格整体持稳，未来短期内供需状况难有改善，需重点关注储备豆的 拍卖可能给市场带来的变化。但近期地方储备拍卖停滞，因此市场相对安静，价格短期内难涨难跌。关内大豆价 格稳中有降，粮贸企业库存偏紧。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-15 现货购销冷清，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2992元/吨，较前日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.54%；菜粕2509合约2659元/吨，较前 日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.99%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-82， 较前日变动-16；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-182，较前日变动-16；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-192，较前日变动-16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2660 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM09+1，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部发布7月供需报告，将2025/26年度美国大豆产量下调500万蒲至43亿蒲，维持大豆单产 52.5蒲/英亩不变；大豆压榨量上调5000万蒲至25.4亿蒲；大豆出口量下调7000万蒲至17.5亿蒲；大豆期末库存上调 1500万蒲至3.1亿蒲。2025/26年度全球大豆产量为4.2768亿吨，较上月调高86万吨，比上一年度增加 ...

2025年07月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆优良率高于预期，或调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅波动 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏明显驱动，期价震荡 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季反弹预期兑现，淘汰情绪下降 | 11 | | 生猪：维持震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,748 | 0.76% | 8 ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 CBOT农产品晚间分析：夜盘美豆期货价格持续下挫，受到哪些因素影响？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation.内外基本面偏空，短期供应充足，看多追多操作需谨慎 [1][2][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation.虽有高关税和低进口支撑，但豆粕替代作用增强，缺乏明显驱动，短期区间行情对待 [1][4][5][7] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish bias.多空因素交织，6月马棕榈油库存意外累库，继续追多看多操作需谨慎 [1][8][9] - **Cotton**: Rebound under pressure.USDA报告多空交织，国内新棉生长好但需求弱，棉价万四位置承压 [1][10][11][12][13] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies.新季枣树生长良好，库存高需求弱，关注中下旬逢高沽空机会 [1][14][15] - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation.养殖端出栏节奏和二育入场影响短期行情，中长期产能过剩，猪价反弹空间有限 [1][16][17][18] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2976元/吨，涨0.74%；全国现货均价2914.86元/吨，涨0.90% [2] - **Supply**: 7月美豆种植天气基本顺利，南美丰产定局；国内港口及油厂大豆、豆粕进入累库阶段，饲料企业库存高于去年同期，补库积极性减缓 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国港口大豆库存788万吨，环比减20.80万吨；125家油厂大豆库存636.4万吨，环比减29.47万吨，豆粕库存82.24万吨，环比增13.08万吨 [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2633元/吨，涨0.84%；全国现货均价2613.16元/吨，涨0.73% [4] - **Supply**: 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，加籽种植面积同比下降；国内7 - 9月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加100%加菜粕进口关税 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，沿海地区主要油厂菜籽库存16.2万吨，环比减2.6万吨；菜粕库存0.46万吨，环比减0.64万吨 [7] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘8682元/吨，涨0.51%；全国均价8840元/吨，涨0.28% [8] - **Supply**: 东南亚棕榈油累库周期开启，美国威胁对印尼征32%进口关税，印尼出口或下滑，马来西亚关税较低 [9] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存53.51万吨，环比减0.23万吨 [9] Cotton - **Market Situation**: 期货主力CF2509收13885元/吨，涨0.14%；国内现货15282元/吨，涨0.53% [10][11] - **Supply**: 美棉播种基本完成，优良率提升，出口增加，但USDA调增新季产量及期末库存；国内新棉生长良好，实播面积增加，5月进口棉减少 [1][11][12][13] - **Demand**: 下游订单走弱，企业开机率低于去年同期，终端市场成交放缓 [1][13] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: 主力合约CJ2601收10600元/吨，增仓上行0.95% [15] - **Supply**: 新季枣树生长良好，产区预估产量正常或略减，库存高于同期 [15] - **Demand**: 需求淡季，下游采购积极性一般，后市干果需求难显著走强 [15] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: 期货主力Ih2509收14345元/吨，跌0.21%；全国外三元现货14910元/吨 [16] - **Supply**: 短期出栏量减少，规模场挺价；中长期产能过剩，预计下半年出栏量仍有增长空间 [17][18] - **Demand**: 消费淡季，需求稳中趋弱 [17]

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]