Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因圣诞假期休市，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.74%，报收 14255 元/ 吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 20504 手至 83.51 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 15000 减落地是大概率事件。情绪推动下，郑棉主连最高触及 14265 元/吨。基本面来看， | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 90 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心震荡上行。我 | | | | 们认为，预期偏强是近期行情驱动的主要因素之一，近期市场上关于明年新疆地 | 偏强震 | | | 区植棉面积调控的声音较强，新疆维吾尔自治区棉花协会已经发布相关通告，调 | | | | | 荡 | | | 短期郑棉多空因素交织，后续关注点，一是消费表现能否持续，下游纺织企业春 | | | | 节前是否会有新一轮补库需求；二是明年一季度，宏观层面是否会降准降息，以 | | | | 及通常在 4 月 10 号左右公布的新一轮棉花目标价格补贴政策细则。我们认为，短 | | | | 期郑棉在情绪驱动下有一定支撑，中长期棉价上方空间大于下方空间。 ...

Core Insights - The overall price of essential goods in Qingdao remains stable, with sufficient reserves and no significant price fluctuations reported [1] Price Trends - Rice prices have decreased, with the average retail price for first-grade long-grain rice at 3.25 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.22% from the previous day [1] - Peanut oil (5-liter bottle) is priced at 133.20 yuan, and flour (special grade) remains at 2.35 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - Meat prices show slight fluctuations, with pork belly increasing by 1.30% to 13.83 yuan, and lean pork rising by 0.62% to 14.57 yuan. Beef has decreased by 2.11% to 37.59 yuan, while lamb remains stable at 41.14 yuan [1] Egg and Vegetable Prices - Egg prices are stable, averaging 3.62 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Vegetable prices are also stable, with a wholesale price of 2.50 yuan, and a 1.63% increase in transaction volume at wholesale markets compared to the previous day [1] Seafood Prices - Seafood prices are generally stable, with average prices for various products such as hairtail at 15 yuan, mackerel at 10.33 yuan, and shrimp at 34 yuan, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report mainly presents the warehouse receipt data of various agricultural products, including the historical trends and the latest values, week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year changes of warehouse receipt quantities for products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and corn [3][4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Warehouse Receipt Data Overview - The report shows the warehouse receipt quantities of multiple agricultural products over different time periods, with data sources from Guotai Junan Futures, Steel Union, Wind, and Flush [3][4][5]. Latest Warehouse Receipt Quantities and Changes - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean meal is 24,830.0 hands, with a 4% week-on-week increase, a -28.7% month-on-month decrease, and a 28% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0.0 pieces, with no valid percentage changes provided [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean oil is 28,264.0 hands, with an 8% week-on-week increase, a 14.8% month-on-month increase, and a 104% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,786.0 pieces, with a -5% week-on-week decrease, a -4.6% month-on-month decrease, and an 11% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of palm oil is 260.0 hands, with a -73% week-on-week decrease, an infinite month-on-month increase (inf%), and a -48% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of sugar is 5,038.0 pieces, with a 725% week-on-week increase, a -34.5% month-on-month decrease, and a -45% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of live pigs is 863.0 hands, with a 5% week-on-week increase, an infinite month-on-month increase (inf%), and a -1% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of No. 1 cotton is 4,626.0 pieces, with a 28% week-on-week increase, a 99.5% month-on-month increase, and a 79% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of corn is 51,450.0 hands, with a -3% week-on-week decrease, a -22.5% month-on-month decrease, and a -41% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity (in hands) is 119,117.0, with a 5% week-on-week increase, an -18.3% month-on-month decrease, and a -13% year-on-year decrease [6].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to show strength, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risk sentiment, with silver outperforming gold significantly [1][3][5] - Silver's unique dual attributes, serving both as a financial asset and having important industrial uses, are contributing to its price increase, particularly with rising demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [3] Group 2: Base Metals - The copper market remains on an upward trend, while aluminum is experiencing high-level fluctuations, and zinc has shown a pattern of rising and then retreating during the week [1] - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from the revival of certain lithium mines and a slowdown in demand during the December to February period, leading to a market correction [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Egg futures have rebounded after a period of decline, driven by optimistic expectations regarding future capacity reduction, despite ongoing weak spot prices [4] - Soybean meal prices are showing a strong oscillating trend, while corn prices are fluctuating, and live pig prices have seen a slight rebound [1][4]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits rose slightly, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas increasing by 3.5%, 2.6%, and 1.6% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight increase, with eggs and white-cut chicken both rising by 0.1% [1] - Meat wholesale prices remained stable with pork priced at 18.08 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.4%, while beef and lamb prices remained unchanged [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with flour increasing by 0.2%, while peanut oil and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly decreased, with grass carp, crucian carp, and large yellow croaker dropping by 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.99 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.7%, with cauliflower, broccoli, and lettuce decreasing by 13.4%, 11.6%, and 10.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline dropping by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices saw a slight decline, with coking coal, smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 1055 yuan, 1159 yuan, and 781 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals mainly fell, with aluminum and copper decreasing by 0.4% and 0.1%, while zinc increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices experienced slight fluctuations, with compound fertilizer rising by 0.2% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3358 yuan, 3547 yuan, and 3508 yuan per ton, all increasing by 0.1%, while ordinary medium plate, welded steel pipe, and channel steel decreased by 0.1% [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid and methanol increasing by 2.9% and 0.1%, while polypropylene and soda ash decreased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while other products such as agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains have their own specific trends. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered - call strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts, including soybeans (A2603, B2602), soybean meal (M2603), rapeseed meal (RM2603), palm oil (P2602), etc. For example, the latest price of A2603 is 4,096 with a price increase of 15 and a price change rate of 0.37% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open - Interest PCR**: The report presents the volume, volume change, open interest, open - interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open - interest PCR, and open - interest PCR change of various option varieties. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean option (A2603) is 0.69 with a change of 0.04, and the open - interest PCR is 0.95 with a change of - 0.11 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: It shows the strike prices at the money, pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call open interests, and maximum put open interests of various option varieties. For example, the pressure point of soybean option (A2603) is 4,200 and the support point is 4,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean option (A2603) is 10.42% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean (A2603)**: Due to the uncertainty of China's demand for US soybeans and the expected Brazilian harvest in early 2026, the soybean market is under pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2603)**: The price of soybean meal may maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern. A neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2602)**: High production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. A short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [9]. - **Peanut (PK2603)**: The peanut market shows a short - term bullish trend followed by a rapid decline. A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [10]. - **Agricultural By - Products Options**: - **Live Pig (LH2603)**: The live - pig spot market rebounds, while the futures market is complex. A short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot are recommended [10]. - **Egg (JD2602)**: The egg market shows a pattern of upward resistance and then a decline. A short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy is recommended [11]. - **Apple (AP2603)**: The apple market shows a continuous upward and high - volatility pattern. A long - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [11]. - **Jujube (CJ2603)**: The jujube market is weakly bearish. A short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [12]. - **Soft Commodities Options**: - **Sugar (SR2603)**: The sugar market is weakly bearish. A short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [12]. - **Cotton (CF2603)**: The cotton market shows a short - term bullish trend followed by an upward resistance and decline. A bull - spread strategy for call options, a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot are recommended [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn (C2603)**: The corn market shows a pattern of rebound and recovery. A neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy is recommended [13].

地名清晰、信息上网，只是第一步，创新乡村地名应用场景更关键。这就需要发挥"地名+"的作用，推 动地名的信息化服务与寄递物流下乡、工业品下乡、农村电商建设、在线旅游、智慧农业等相融合。垫 江借著名行动，推广东印红茶、黄沙白柚等本土名特优品，"地名+农产品"拓宽销售渠道、提升产业附 加值，带动当地群众累计增收450余万元。"地名赋能"，既彰显区域特色、文化韵味，又避免同质竞 争、千村一面，滋养公共品牌、深挖内在价值，便利城乡资源要素双向流动，把好地名变成"金名片"。 山水有名、乡村有名，这承载着乡村的集体记忆和乡亲的价值情愫。有的地方建设村情馆等地名文化展 示设施，寻访地名故事，传承地名背后的民间传说、民俗传统；有的推进地名文化进村居，融合文化旅 游、特色田园建设，提升地名文化可见度……突出对地名文化的珍视与活化，不只留住了乡愁，更留住 了乡村的"精气神"，通过繁荣地名文化使乡村文化活动活跃起来。以地名所载的民俗文化滋润人心、德 化人心、凝聚人心，定能激发出更多人共建家乡的强大合力。 山连绵、数百里、寻路难，本地人也闹过误会。重庆垫江的张东，爱"耍摩托"，之前听说山里有个鹞子 溪谷，但地名定位不清，不小心误到了北 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Most domestic futures main contracts rose at the 23:00 close, with fuel oil and rapeseed meal up nearly 2%, and PX and PTA up over 1.5%. Jiao coal, coke, LPG, and glass fell over 1% [5]. - At the 1:00 close, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and international copper main contracts rose, while the alumina main contract fell [5]. - At the 2:30 close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - China has lodged solemn representations with the US over its plan to impose 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products [9]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a good call with US representatives, emphasizing efforts to end the conflict [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased slightly, while domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory decreased [11]. - Russia's plan to produce 100 million tons of LNG annually has been postponed due to sanctions [11]. - Iraq has lost power - generation capacity due to the interruption of Iranian natural - gas supply [11]. - China will take measures to ensure the supply and price stability of fertilizers [13]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted trading rules for platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures contracts [15][16]. - Tianqi Lithium will change its spot - trading settlement price starting from January 1, 2026 [16]. - Wanrun New Energy will conduct production - line maintenance, reducing its lithium iron phosphate output [16]. - Four leading silicon - wafer companies have significantly raised their quotes [17][35]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026 [17]. Black - Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit for coke and coking coal futures contracts [19]. - China will strengthen the construction of infrastructure and energy reserves [19]. - The average profit per ton of independent coking plants varies by region [19]. - The output, inventory, and demand of rebar have changed in the week of December 25 [20]. - Coal - mine production in Zhaotong, Yunnan, has been temporarily suspended [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [24]. - Sugar - mill operations and inventory in Guangxi have changed [24]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be slightly lower due to drought risks [24]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% and achieving a 7 - day winning streak [26]. - A - share listed companies' private placements have been active this year [28]. - The net inflow of the CSI A500ETF in December has been significant [29]. - Most private multi - asset strategy products have achieved positive returns this year [29]. - Analysts are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026 [29]. - The IPO application of Dapu Micro has been approved [31]. Industry - China has cracked down on financial "black - gray industries" [32]. - New regulations have been issued for the information disclosure of bank and insurance asset - management products [32]. - China will regulate the e - cigarette market [32]. - The government will strengthen the supervision of entrusted food production [32]. - Many game version numbers have been approved in December [33]. - Silicon - wafer prices have increased [35]. - China has made a breakthrough in the super - high - speed maglev field [35]. - Mobile phone shipments in China have increased [35]. - Shanghai will support the construction of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor [35]. Overseas - Israel may have another military conflict with Iran [36]. - Hungary's Prime Minister believes the root of the Russia - Ukraine conflict lies in the decline of Western Europe [36]. - Japan's 2026 fiscal - year initial budget has reached a record high [36]. - Japan has raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year [38]. - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates [39]. - The Bank of Korea may cut interest rates in 2026 [40]. International Stock Markets - Japanese stocks rose slightly, while Vietnamese stocks tumbled [41]. - Morgan Stanley warns of three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026 [41]. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new - energy materials leading the gains [42]. - The trading rules of platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [42]. - Russia's oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [42]. Bonds - China's bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and Japanese 2 - year bond auctions were weak [43]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday [45]. 4. Upcoming Events - The People's Bank of China has 562 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing at 09:20 [47]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:30 [47]. - The 2025 Embodied Intelligence Development Frontier Conference and the 2025 Greater Bay Area Digital Chain Ecosystem Conference will be held on December 26 [47].

生猪： 周四，生猪主力2603合约震荡收十字星，生猪期价在长期均线支撑处企稳，期价呈现偏强表现。全国生 猪现货报价稳定为主，黑龙江市场生猪主流成交价格11.14元/公斤，较昨日价格持平；吉林市场主流成 交价格11.21元/公斤，较昨日价格持平；辽宁地区生猪出栏主流价格11.39元/公斤，较昨日价格下跌0.01 元/公斤；内蒙古市场主流成交价格为11.17元/公斤，较昨日价格下跌0.01元/公斤。现东北地区中大猪挺 价心理持续，价格暂无明显波动，今日中大猪价格低价11.2元/公斤，高价11.80元/公斤，标肥价差震荡 走扩。广东市场生猪出栏均价为11.98元/公斤 ，较昨日价格稳定，与赣桂湘均价价差0.78元/公斤， 规 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： 周四，CBOT大豆因节日休市，今日恢复交易。之前美豆小幅上涨，因空头获利平仓。市场谨慎看待中 国采购步伐。之前美国农业部周二发布的出口销售报告显示，截至12月11日，美豆单周净销售239.62万 吨，其中对中国净销售138.3万吨。国内方面，两粕震荡走高。豆粕现货成交环比减少，但依然高于上 周同期。成交集中在远期合约， ...