农产品早报 2025-12-16 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收跌，市场继续交易美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期。周一国内豆粕现货小幅回落 10 元/ 吨，豆粕成交一般、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上升 0.64 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，同比仍处高位。 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，重点关注其 1 到 3 月天 气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to maintain reasonable prices for important agricultural products, particularly in the context of projected increases in grain production by 168 billion pounds in 2025 compared to 2024 [1] Group 1: Price Regulation and Market Dynamics - The concept of a "reasonable level" for prices is dynamic and should balance the interests of producers and consumers, avoiding both excessively low prices that harm producers and excessively high prices that burden consumers [1][2] - Recent trends show a downward movement in agricultural prices since the second half of 2023, prompting authorities to enhance market regulation for key agricultural products [2] - The shift in regulatory focus has moved from merely addressing rapid price increases to also considering the risks of excessive price declines [2] Group 2: Considerations for Price Stability - Ensuring supply security is crucial, as China is the largest buyer in the global agricultural market, necessitating a focus on domestic production capacity [2] - Protecting farmers' livelihoods is essential, as over 30% of farmers' income comes from agricultural activities, particularly in major production areas [2] - Maintaining the achievements of poverty alleviation is vital, as low agricultural prices could lead to a return to poverty for previously lifted communities [2] Group 3: Agricultural Transformation and Support - Reasonable pricing can provide financial support for agricultural upgrades, fostering technological and industrial innovation [2] - The use of market-based risk management tools, such as futures and insurance, is encouraged to stabilize farmers' incomes [3] - Improving agricultural production conditions and enhancing the efficiency of supply chains are necessary for better market integration [3] Group 4: Focus on Key Agricultural Products - Important agricultural products include grains, cotton, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits, vegetables, tea, and fish, with a priority on grains and pork due to their significant impact on national food security and overall price levels [4] - Monitoring and regulating the prices of 28 essential vegetables and various meats is also critical, while not neglecting fruits and dairy products [4] - A strategic approach to imports is necessary to mitigate the impact of excessive foreign supply on domestic markets, requiring careful monitoring and timely responses [4]

Macro: Supply and Demand Gap Widening - In November, supply growth slightly decreased year-on-year, with industrial added value and service production indices at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively, compared to 4.9% and 4.2% in October [5] - The demand structure showed marginal improvement in export delivery value, while domestic demand growth declined, primarily driven by the decrease in industrial added value growth [5] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the main factor for the overall investment decline [7] Consumer Sector: Consumption Growth Slows - In November, total retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023 [6] - The decline in consumption was attributed to weakened support from trade-in programs and high base effects from the previous year, particularly in categories like home appliances (-19.4%) and automotive (-8.3%) [6] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival caused a shift in consumption patterns, pulling forward sales from November, which contributed to the slowdown in retail sales growth [6] Investment: Fixed Asset Investment Decline - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment expanded to 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the primary contributor [7] - The November fixed asset investment saw a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 1.03%, a slight narrowing from October's 1.51% [7] - The government is expected to push for investment stabilization, with additional funding support anticipated to improve investment data by 2026 [7] Real Estate: Continued Weakness - The real estate market remains weak, with new housing sales area declining by 17.3% year-on-year in November, a slight improvement from October's 18.8% decline [10] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, indicating a cautious approach from developers amid weak market demand [10] - The overall investment environment remains pressured, with the government emphasizing the need for stabilization measures [10] Financial Sector: Credit Demand Weakness - In November, new social financing increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, but new RMB loans decreased by 390 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand [25][26] - The decline in credit demand is attributed to slow recovery in the real economy and weakened demand in the real estate sector [26] - The government bonds and corporate bonds have been the main contributors to social financing, indicating a reliance on these instruments for economic support [26] Commodity Sector: Demand Needs Boost - In November, domestic crude oil production was 4.3 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while net imports were 12.43 million barrels per day, up 4.8% [15] - The steel sector faced a decline in production, with crude steel output down 10.9% year-on-year in November, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels [17] - The copper market showed a year-on-year increase in production by 9.7% in November, but demand remained subdued due to seasonal factors [19]

保持重要农产品价格合理水平有多方面考量，比如保障供给安全、确保农民生计、巩固脱贫成果、农业 转型升级等。合理水平，意味着要平衡生产者和消费者利益，但也不是非此即彼的关系，是可以双赢 的。 中央经济工作会议提出，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理水平。国家统计局日前发布，2025年全 国粮食总产量14298亿斤，比2024年增加168亿斤。在粮食增产的背景下，如何保持重要农产品价格合理 水平是个重要课题。 合理水平，意味着要平衡生产者和消费者利益，但也不是非此即彼的关系，是可以双赢的。这是因为， 除了价格手段之外，还有其他手段。灵活应用期货、保险等市场化风险管理工具，推广"保险+期货"模 式，保障种粮农民收益稳定。将化肥、种子等关键农资纳入补贴联动机制，必要时给予阶段性补贴，减 轻成本上行对农民收益的挤压。强化对农业生产的基础性支持保护，改善农田基础生产条件、发展农业 社会化服务、完善仓储保鲜设施，尤其要注重产销顺畅衔接、流通模式改进。此外，要正确引导经营主 体预期，让生产者对未来有基本判断。 在我国，重要农产品包括粮棉油肉蛋奶果菜茶鱼等。在食物消费多元化的今天，调控不可能也没必要盯 住所有农产品。同样是重要农 ...

美国农业部称，10 月农产品收购价格同比上涨 6.9%。 ...

Core Insights - Zhejiang's total import and export value reached 5.06 trillion yuan from January to November, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Exports amounted to 3.83 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1%, while imports were 1.23 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - Zhejiang's import and export, export, and import values accounted for 12.3%, 15.7%, and 7.4% of the national totals, ranking third, second, and sixth respectively [1] Trade Market Performance - ASEAN solidified its position as Zhejiang's largest trading market with a total trade value of 786.81 billion yuan, growing by 15.4%, contributing 40.9% to the province's overall import and export growth [1] - The EU is the second-largest trading market for Zhejiang, with a trade value of 770.14 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3%, including imports and exports with France reaching 83.84 billion yuan, up by 7.3% [1] - Exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa grew by 16.1%, 10.0%, 12.0%, and 15.4% respectively [1] - Total trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 2.90 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5%, accounting for 57.3% of the province's total import and export value [1] Private Sector Performance - Private enterprises' import and export values reached 4.16 trillion yuan, growing by 7.0%, and accounted for 82.1% of the province's total, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Exports from private enterprises were 3.30 trillion yuan, up by 8.4%, while imports were 858.61 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises reported an import and export value of 619.78 billion yuan, increasing by 2.8%, with exports at 394.41 billion yuan, up by 2.3%, and imports at 225.37 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% [2] Export Product Trends - The export of electromechanical products reached 1.79 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8%, with "new three samples" products exporting 120.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 23.3% [2] - Solar products, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries have seen continuous growth for 4, 12, and 20 months respectively [2] - Labor-intensive products exported amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9%, capturing 30.5% of the national market share [2] - High-tech product exports reached 324.35 billion yuan, increasing by 10.7%, with high-end equipment exports at 129.73 billion yuan, growing by 16.8% [2] Import Product Trends - Electromechanical product imports grew significantly, reaching 218.42 billion yuan, an increase of 21.8%, with aircraft and other aviation equipment, as well as computers and components, growing by 122.9% and 43.1% respectively [2] - Consumer goods imports totaled 143.46 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, while agricultural product imports reached 112.04 billion yuan, increasing by 10.6% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In normal circumstances, the price of soybean meal futures is expected to rise steadily in 2026. If there is adverse weather, the price may enter an upward cycle [2]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily due to the tight supply - demand balance sheet. The Brazilian soybean premium is neutral, and the price of soybean meal is affected by US soybean prices, Brazilian premiums, and weather factors [2][118][119]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - From January to April 8, 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose. The reasons included the bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [6]. - From April 9 to November 28, 2025, the price entered an "interval operation" pattern, mainly trading "Sino - US trade sentiment", with five trading bands affected by trade news and market sentiment [7]. 2. 2026 Soybean Meal Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Raw Material Soybean Supply and Demand: Tight US Supply, Neutral South American Supply - **US Soybean Balance Sheet: Tight Supply - Demand in the Inventory Reduction Cycle** - In 2025/26, US soybean supply decreased due to reduced planting, while demand decreased due to trade frictions. Supply decline was greater than demand, leading to a tight balance sheet [15]. - In 2026/27, the US soybean balance sheet is expected to remain tight. Planting area may increase slightly, supply and demand will both expand, but supply growth will be lower than demand, and ending stocks will decline [29][30]. - **South American Soybean Balance Sheet: Neutral, First Contracting, Then Loosening** - In 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet slightly contracted, and it is expected to be loose in 2026/27. The Argentine balance sheet slightly contracted in 2025/26 and is expected to be slightly loose in 2026/27 [32][33][48]. - **Weather's Impact on the Balance Sheet** - Abnormal weather can lead to a tight balance sheet and price increases. Currently, La Nina weather is expected to last until February 2026 and turn ENSO neutral from January to March 2026, which may affect South American soybean production [51]. 2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Import Profits - In 2025, China's soybean imports and soybean meal production were high, but the operating rate was low due to low profits and temporary shortages. In 2026, soybean imports may be stable or slightly decrease due to poor import profits, which may affect soybean meal supply [55][73]. 2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Breeding Profits - In 2025, soybean meal demand was good, with stable growth in livestock and poultry breeding, increased feed production, and a rising proportion of soybean meal addition. In 2026, demand may be stable or slightly decrease due to declining breeding profits, a possible decline in the scale of livestock and poultry breeding, and a slight decrease in the proportion of soybean meal use [96][97]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily, the Brazilian soybean premium is neutral. In normal weather, the balance sheets of Brazil and Argentina have minor contradictions. Adverse weather may tighten the balance sheets and drive up prices. Domestic soybean meal supply and demand may slightly contract, and the spot price may be slightly stronger [118][119][120][121][122]. - Investment strategy: Focus on the "buying on dips and trading in bands" strategy. Pay attention to possible driving events such as trade policies, adverse weather, and USDA reports [123].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed overall strength on December 15, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1512.37 points, up 0.64 points or 0.04% from the previous trading day [1] - The commodity futures index closed at 2089.21 points, with a slight increase of 0.06 points, reflecting a stable market [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum prices surged to a limit-up, marking a 7.00% increase and reaching a historical high, driven by supply shortages and strong demand from the hydrogen energy sector [2] - Palladium also saw a significant rise of over 4%, benefiting from the bullish trend in platinum [2] - Gold's strong performance laid the foundation for the overall strength in the precious metals sector, despite silver experiencing volatility [2] Group 3: Silicon Market Dynamics - The main contract for polysilicon rose by 3.61%, nearing its historical high from earlier in the month, primarily due to the announcement of a capacity integration acquisition platform [3] - However, the supply-demand dynamics for polysilicon remain weak, with inventory levels reaching 293,000 tons, sufficient for nearly two months of production [3] - Production cuts in the silicon wafer segment were noted, with a significant reduction of over 10% in November and a further expected decrease in December [3] Group 4: Agricultural Products and Copper - The new season apples faced downward pressure, dropping over 3% due to an oversupply in the market and weak demand ahead of the holidays [4] - Copper prices experienced a decline of over 1% after reaching historical highs, influenced by increased inventories and expectations of weakened demand [5] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories rose to 177,200 tons, indicating a supply surplus that may pressure prices further [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the corn industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the 2025/26 crop year, the bottom of the corn price is expected to rise, and investors should focus on trading opportunities in price fluctuations. The domestic corn supply will increase due to the growth in both planting area and yield in 2025, while the demand is expected to decline. As a result, the supply - demand situation will be marginally looser, and the overall policy - related substitutes still have room, which restricts the upside of the corn price [2][81][82]. - Before the Spring Festival, the selling pressure on corn may not be significant. After the resolution of the temporary supply - demand mismatch, traders will enter the market to build inventories, and the price correction will be limited. Subsequently, the corn price may fall again due to traders' selling and policy auctions, but the overall price center is expected to move up. Additionally, the situation of the new - season corn should be monitored [2][82]. - In 2026, the corn price is expected to fluctuate between 2000 - 2450 yuan/ton, with a core range of 2100 - 2400 yuan/ton [3][83]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Corn Market Review - In 2025, the corn futures price fluctuated within a large range, and the spot price moved up compared to the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the price rose due to factors such as policy - driven stockpiling, tariff counter - measures, wheat drought, and tight supply - demand. After reaching a high, the price declined due to factors like imported corn auctions and high warehouse receipts. After the new grain was on the market, the price rebounded. The overall price center continued to move down compared to the previous year, and the futures were mainly in a negative basis situation, with a "strong expectation, weak reality" tone [6]. 3.2 International Grains: Loose Supply - Demand Remains Unchanged - **Global Grains**: In the 2025/26 crop year, the global grain supply - demand remains loose. The global grain planting area increased due to better planting profit compared to soybeans, with production rising by 3.2% year - on - year to 2.946 billion tons. Demand increased by 2.3% year - on - year to 2.947 billion tons, mainly from the feed and industrial sectors. The ending inventory is expected to be 769 million tons, a 0.16% year - on - year decrease [11]. - **International Corn**: - **USA**: In the 2025/26 crop year, the US corn production reached a record high due to the increase in both area and yield. The domestic demand and export demand increased. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, but the price center is expected to move up due to strong export demand and the possible reduction in the 2026 planting area [12][15]. - **Brazil**: The Brazilian corn production is expected to decline. The planting area increased by 4%, but the yield per hectare decreased by 5.4% due to factors such as high - temperature drought and delayed soybean harvest affecting the second - season corn [17]. - **Ukraine**: The Ukrainian corn production increased, and the export is expected to recover. The production increased by 5.2 million tons year - on - year, and the export is expected to reach 24.5 million tons in the 2025/26 crop year [19]. 3.3 Domestic Corn - **Production Increase in 2025/26**: In 2025, the national corn planting area increased by 940,000 mu (0.15%) to 60.912 million mu. The yield increased due to favorable climate conditions and the promotion of planting techniques. The national corn output was 282.45 million tons, a 4.1% year - on - year increase [21][22]. - **Feed Demand Expected to Decline Slowly**: - **2025/26 Feed Demand Forecast**: The overall feed demand is expected to decline. For pigs, the inventory of sows is expected to decrease, driving the decline in commercial pig inventory after the second quarter of 2026. For poultry, the feed demand for meat - type poultry is expected to increase slightly, while that for egg - laying poultry is expected to decline [24][29][39]. - **Structural Demand for Corn**: The structural demand for corn in feed is expected to decline slightly. The substitution of corn in feed depends on cost - effectiveness and policy. Currently, the substitution of wheat for corn has decreased, and the overall substitution situation is uncertain [41][42]. - **Deep - processing Demand Expected to Increase Slightly**: The deep - processing demand for corn is expected to be relatively rigid, with consumption remaining flat or increasing slightly compared to the previous year. In 2024/25, the consumption of deep - processing enterprises decreased by 5%, mainly in the starch and alcohol industries. Currently, the consumption is showing signs of recovery [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance: Annual Inventory Accumulation**: In the 2025/26 crop year, the domestic corn market is expected to accumulate inventory. Supply will increase due to higher production and possible import growth, while demand will decline, resulting in a marginally looser supply - demand pattern [52]. 3.4 Range - bound with a Rising Price Floor - **Limited Price Decline and Weak Selling Pressure Before the Spring Festival**: Since November 2025, the corn price has been rising against the season due to factors such as restocking demand, farmers' reluctance to sell, and logistics bottlenecks. The outflow of corn from Northeast China is expected to decrease in the future, the downstream restocking enthusiasm will weaken, and the port inventory will gradually accumulate. After the resolution of the supply - demand mismatch, traders will build inventories, and the selling pressure on farmers may not be significant, with limited price correction [53][55][56]. - **After Grain Sales: Focus on Traders' Selling, Substitutes, and New - season Corn Planting**: - **Domestic Policy Substitutes - Wheat Substitution Limited**: The wheat - corn price spread is currently high, and the substitution volume is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly. The probability of a large - scale substitution of wheat for corn before the first quarter of 2026 is low. Attention should be paid to the new - season wheat production and the possible auction of overdue wheat [68][69]. - **Domestic Policy Substitutes - Possible Rice Auction**: There is still a surplus of brown rice, and attention should be paid to the policy regarding its release time, quantity, and base price [71]. - **Imported Grains May Increase Marginally**: The import of corn is expected to increase slightly, mainly depending on policy and import profit. The import of sorghum and barley is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to cost - effectiveness and import policies [73][75]. - **Traders' Selling and New - season Corn**: After the Spring Festival, the corn price may fall due to traders' selling and the influence of substitutes. The planting cost of new - season corn may increase, and the price may rise in the third quarter due to inventory reduction and restocking demand [80].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicates that the Indian economy is performing well, supported by improving domestic conditions, with a projected growth rate of 6.5% for FY2024-2025 and 7.8% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 FY2025-2026, despite facing significant short-term risks [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - For FY2025-2026, India's actual GDP is expected to grow by 6.6%, with inflation projected to decrease to 2.8% [2] - By FY2026-2027, GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 6.2%, with inflation rebounding to 4% [2] Trade and External Debt - Commodity trade exports are projected to reach $416.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, while imports are expected to rise to $746.6 billion, a growth of 2.4% [2] - External debt is forecasted to increase to $791 billion, accounting for 19.2% of GDP [2] Structural Reforms - The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on September 22, 2025, is expected to simplify the tax structure, stimulate domestic consumption, and mitigate the adverse effects of high tariffs [2][3] - Continuous structural reforms and fiscal consolidation are deemed crucial for achieving fiscal deficit targets and enhancing economic resilience [3] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights significant short-term risks, including potential tightening of financial conditions due to geopolitical fragmentation and unpredictable climate change impacts on agriculture, which could elevate inflation pressures [3] - The need for ongoing financial structural reforms and careful monitoring of non-bank financial institutions is emphasized to mitigate associated risks [3] Recommendations for Sustainable Growth - The Indian government is advised to enhance human capital accumulation, increase female labor participation, and optimize the business environment to attract foreign direct investment [4] - There is a call for increased R&D investment and innovation to support green economic transformation and ensure sustainable growth [4]