1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pricing logic of agricultural products has shifted, with policy and geopolitics taking precedence, followed by cost, and supply - demand coming third due to complex international trade environments and increased trade conflicts [8][114]. - In 2026, the overall supply of agricultural products is expected to increase, but the growth rate will slow down. There are potential opportunities in specific sectors and stages, while market volatility will intensify [114]. - For different agricultural products, such as oilseeds, grains, livestock, and eggs, their supply - demand structures, market trends, and influencing factors vary, and corresponding investment strategies and risk points need to be considered. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated, with a wider spot price range than the futures price. The price of oils declined from a high level, with palm oil leading the market, and the soybean - palm oil price spread widened and adjusted [7][11][19]. 3.1.2 2026 Market Analysis - The pricing of oilseeds is mainly influenced by policy and geopolitics. The global supply - demand of oilseeds is approaching balance in 2025/26, but there are opportunities for phased market movements due to uncertain factors such as weather and policies [8][114]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase at a slower pace, with soybeans decreasing and rapeseed and sunflower seeds increasing. The consumption of oilseeds is expected to be strong, mainly driven by bio - diesel policies and feed demand [29][35]. - The production of palm oil may exceed expectations, driven by weather and technological factors. The biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are uncertain, which will affect the demand for oils [67][83]. - There are differences in the forecasts of global vegetable oil trade volume by different institutions. The inventory of vegetable oils is expected to decline slightly, and the market lacks a clear driving force [106][110]. 3.1.3 Price Outlook - If South American soybean production decreases by more than 10 million tons, the global soybean price center will move up. If South American production is stable and China actively purchases soybeans, the market will be relatively loose. If China purchases cautiously, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [114]. 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic and international corn futures prices first rose and then fell. The domestic market was mainly affected by policies, experiencing a roller - coaster ride from state - owned grain reserve purchases to imported corn auctions [120][123]. 3.2.2 2026 Market Analysis - Global corn production is expected to have a good harvest, with increased production in the US and China. The demand for feed and deep - processing is expected to decline slightly due to losses in the breeding industry [121][164]. - The inventory of corn is expected to increase, with an increase in trade - link inventory and expected imports of substitutes [121]. 3.2.3 Future Concerns - The relative changes between the expected high - yield and carry - over inventory will affect the corn price [186]. - The increase in Xinjiang's corn production will change the national corn trade pattern [191]. - The impact of bio - energy policies on US corn exports and the guidance of agricultural policies on the corn market [195][197]. 3.2.4 Price Outlook - In 2026, the international corn market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face pressure from a large harvest and increased imports. The price is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [206]. 3.3 Pork 3.3.1 2025 Market Review - The supply of pork increased in 2025, leading to a decline in prices. The market was affected by factors such as secondary fattening and policy regulation [208][212]. 3.3.2 2026 Market Analysis - The number of sows in stock decreased in October 2025, which will lead to a reduction in pig slaughter in the second half of 2026, resulting in a supply contraction [209][220]. - Pig prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, and industry profits are expected to recover. Policy guidance and supply - demand adjustment will interact to affect pig prices [209]. 3.3.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, the pig market is expected to experience a price reversal. After the Spring Festival, pig prices may decline seasonally, but they will rebound after May as supply decreases and demand recovers [266]. 3.4 Eggs 3.4.1 2025 Market Review - The spot price of eggs was under pressure from the supply side and showed a weak performance throughout the year, with obvious seasonal patterns [267][271]. 3.4.2 2026 Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The willingness of farmers to replenish the flock has decreased, and the willingness to cull old hens has increased, which will help alleviate over - capacity [283][285]. - Feed raw material prices are expected to be weak, reducing the cost support for egg prices. The terminal demand for eggs maintains normal seasonal patterns without new bright spots [268]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, egg prices are expected to follow seasonal patterns. With the expected slow decline in production capacity, egg prices are expected to improve, but uncertainties in farmers' replenishment and culling decisions need to be monitored [308][310].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the corn futures price showed a "rise - fall - rise" trend. Looking ahead to 2026, the corn futures price is expected to rise first and then fall, with the key points being the release rhythm and time of old grain and the expected difference in total quantity confirmation. The price of CBOT corn may gradually bottom out and rebound, which will support the domestic corn market sentimentally. The consumption side is expected to be in a slow de - capacity game stage, and the domestic corn yield in the next year is initially expected to remain stable, but the weather uncertainty makes the driving force unclear. The expected fluctuation ranges of corn contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2200 - 2350, 2170 - 2340, and 2230 - 2360 respectively. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [2]. - In 2025, the center of the corn starch futures price did not change significantly, and the fluctuation trend was basically the same as that of the cost corn futures price, showing a "rise - fall - rise" rhythm. In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to remain relatively balanced, and the profit game will still be the main theme. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost. The expected operating ranges of corn starch contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2480 - 2660, 2460 - 2670, and 2560 - 2700 respectively. It is also recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - **Long - term Historical Review**: The corn futures price trend can be divided into six stages since 2004. Each stage is affected by policies, economic situations, and supply - demand relationships. For example, from 2004 - 2008, without the temporary storage purchase policy, the corn price rose continuously; from 2008 - 2015, the corn market was supported by the temporary storage purchase policy; from 2015 - 2016, it entered the post - temporary storage policy era, and the price fell sharply [13][14][18]. - **2025 Futures Market Summary**: The futures price of the main corn contract in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating pattern, which can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to mid - October, and rebounding from late October to November. The price center at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year [22]. - **2025 Spot Market Summary**: The corn spot price in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating trend, and the operating range at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year. The price showed a "rise - fall - rebound" pattern, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather [24][26]. - **Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation**: In 2025, the trading activity of the corn futures market increased compared with the previous year. The cumulative trading volume from January to November was 163,009,844 lots, a year - on - year increase of 15.30%, and the cumulative trading volume was 36,872 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.33%. The overall position - holding level was slightly higher than that in 2024, showing a distribution characteristic of "high at both ends and low in the middle" [28]. 3.2 Corn Starch Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - **Long - term Historical Review**: The price trend of corn starch futures is highly correlated with that of corn futures. It can be divided into six stages since 2014, affected by factors such as corn price, supply - demand, and policies [35][36]. - **2025 Futures Market Summary**: The corn starch futures price in 2025 showed an oscillating trend, with limited change in the annual fluctuation center. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to October, and rebounding in November, which is basically consistent with the trend of the raw material corn price [40]. - **2025 Spot Market Summary**: The corn starch spot price in 2025 first rose and then fell, following the trend of the raw material corn price. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, consolidating narrowly from July to August, and falling from September to November [41]. - **Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative trading volume of corn starch futures was 33,603,107 lots, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%, but the cumulative trading volume was 8,711.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%. The overall position - holding scale remained relatively stable, and the position - holding volume at the end of November was 330,503 lots, slightly higher than that in the same period of 2024 [45]. 3.3 Global Corn Market Situation - **2025/26 Global Corn Yield Estimated to Increase Year - on - Year**: The global corn yield in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high of 1.286 billion tons, an increase of 55.49 million tons compared with the previous year. The United States is the core driving force for the increase, with an estimated yield of 425.525 million tons, an increase of 47.257 million tons year - on - year [52]. - **Increasing Disagreements on 2026/27 Global Corn Yield**: In the 2026/27 season, the global corn planting area is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend. The influence of weather factors on yield is expected to be more prominent [57][58]. - **Steady and Slight Increase in Global Corn Demand**: The global corn consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 1.284 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.74%. Feed consumption is the main support, and industrial consumption also shows a slow - growth expectation [62]. - **CBOT Corn Price Expected to Bottom Out and Rebound**: In 2026, the supply side of the global corn market is expected to be stable, and the demand side shows structural highlights. The price of CBOT corn is expected to show a trend of rising in the first half of the year and oscillating at a high level in the second half of the year [66][67]. 3.4 Domestic Corn Market Situation - **Supply Market Analysis** - **Increasing Yield Pattern Set, Quality Differentiation and Purchase - Sales Rhythm Become Focus**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn yield is expected to increase, but there is significant regional quality differentiation in North China. The selling rhythm of farmers and traders will affect the price rhythm in different periods [71][72]. - **Limited Change in 2026/27 Planting Area, Weather Still the Dominant Factor for Yield**: The corn planting area in 2026 is expected to be relatively stable, and the yield is initially estimated to be stable with a slight increase. However, weather is still the key variable affecting the final yield [78]. - **2025/26 Import Volume Expected to Remain at a Low Level**: From January to October 2025, China's corn import volume was only 129.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.1%. In 2026, the import volume is expected to recover slightly but still remain at a low level [81][82]. - **Demand Market Analysis** - **Limited Increment in Feed Consumption, Substitution as the Anchor**: In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be stable with limited increment. The breeding industry is expected to continue to reduce capacity slowly, and substitution by other grains will cause periodic disturbances [85][86]. - **2025/26 Industrial Consumption Expected to be Stable**: The domestic corn industrial consumption market is expected to maintain a "stable with a slight increase" pattern in the 2025/26 season. However, the starch and alcohol industries are affected by cost pressure and have weak support for corn consumption [108][109]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand is expected to remain relatively balanced. The supply side shows a stable year - on - year trend, and the demand side also maintains a stable expectation [116]. 3.5 Corn Starch Market Fundamentals - **Supply Market Analysis - Yield Expected to Decrease Slightly Year - on - Year under the Expectation of Profit Convergence**: In 2025, the corn starch industry was under the triple pressure of weak demand, high cost, and low profit, and the yield decreased significantly. In 2026, the industry is still expected to face the contradiction of rising cost and weak demand, and the yield is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [118]. - **Demand Market Analysis - Insufficient Incremental Drivers**: In 2026, the terminal consumption of corn starch is expected to continue the stable and weak trend, lacking growth highlights. The consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [121]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of corn starch in China are expected to decline. The industry is expected to show a relatively balanced state [124]. 3.6 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The spread between corn starch and corn is recommended to be treated with an interval - trading idea. Currently, the spreads in May and September are in the middle - low range, and there is limited downward space. In the short term, the spread is expected to continue to shrink, and there is a repair expectation in the medium term [129]. - **Corn Cross - Period Arbitrage**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the May - March contract spread and going short on the May - September contract spread of corn. The current fundamentals support the May contract the most [131]. 3.7 Seasonal Analysis - **Seasonal Analysis of Corn Index Price**: According to the seasonal chart of the corn futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [133]. - **Seasonal Analysis of Corn Starch Index Price**: According to the seasonal chart of the corn starch futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in January, February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [138]. 3.8 Corn and Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - **Corn Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions**: In 2026, the supply - side focuses on the release rhythm of grain sources, yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand - side focuses on the breeding and deep - processing markets. The overall consumption of corn is expected to be weak, but periodic disturbances are still the focus. The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [142][143][145]. - **Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions**: In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to be relatively balanced, and the profit game is still the main theme. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [149]. 3.9 Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategy - **Corn Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy**: Based on the judgment that the corn 2605 contract fluctuates in the range of 2200 - 2400, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [155]. - **Corn Starch Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy**: Based on the judgment that the corn starch 2603 contract fluctuates in the range of 2460 - 2670, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [162]. 3.10 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the stock price changes of several companies related to the corn industry in 2025, such as Muyuan Co., Ltd. with a rise of 29.77%, New Hope with a rise of 3.42%, and Zhengbang Technology with a fall of 13.82% [163].

Core Viewpoint - A significant "technical storm" driven by index rules is anticipated, primarily affecting gold and silver due to an upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) in January 2026, which is expected to exert substantial selling pressure on these precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Selling Pressure - The core driver of the anticipated selling pressure is the mean reversion effect, as gold and silver have outperformed other commodities over the past three years, leading to an inflated weight in the BCOM index [2]. - The forced selling operations are projected to occur between January 8 and 14, 2026, coinciding with the BCOM index roll period, potentially resulting in concentrated capital outflows from the market [2]. Group 2: Seasonal Factors vs. Technical Selling - January will present a battleground of bullish and bearish factors for gold investors, with historical data indicating an average price increase of 4.6% during the last ten trading days of the year and the first twenty trading days of the new year, with an 80% probability of price increases [3]. - However, the significant technical selling pressure from the index rebalancing may counteract this seasonal bullish trend, particularly with silver facing greater selling pressure than in previous years [3]. Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Impacts - The rebalancing will not only impact precious metals but will also create complex long and short dynamics across other commodities, as different indices will adjust their weights differently [4]. - The oil market outlook is cautious, with expectations of a growing oversupply in 2026 and 2027, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices [4]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Predictions - Silver is expected to face the heaviest selling pressure, with the anticipated sell-off amounting to approximately 9% of its total open interest in the futures market [5]. - Gold's projected selling pressure is estimated at about 3% of its total open interest, which, despite being lower than silver's, still represents a significant absolute value due to gold's large market size [5]. - Cocoa is predicted to be the biggest winner from the rebalancing, with expected buying pressure equivalent to 22% of its total open interest, significantly surpassing other agricultural products [6]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Key Observations - The rebalancing will also involve the S&P GSCI index, with both indices adjusting during the same period, which could amplify market volatility due to the large asset scale tracking BCOM exceeding $60 billion [8]. - Notably, there are significant directional discrepancies between the two indices, such as cocoa being a large buy in BCOM while facing substantial sell pressure in S&P GSCI, potentially leading to cross-index arbitrage activities and unusual market fluctuations [8].

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 15, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC No.: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows overall decline in production heat, marginal drop in property transactions, general downward trend in prices, and significant fall of the Baltic Dry Index. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][34] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.72 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 1.53 pct, and rebar output decreased by 10.53 tons. Inventory decreased by 1.88 tons [10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Operating rate decreased by 0.1 pct and remained at a low level [10] - Chemicals: PX and PTA operating rates remained flat [10] - Automobile Tires: All - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.57 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.65 pct [11] Demand - Real Estate: Property transaction area declined, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area continued to fall from a high level, and residential land transaction premium rate decreased [16] - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 720 million yuan compared to the previous week [16] - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 83,000 units, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 143,000 units [20] - Shipping Freight Rates: SCFI index increased by 7.79%, CCFI index increased by 0.29%, and BDI index dropped significantly by 19.14% [22] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price dropped by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, and coking coal futures price fell by 11.72% to 1,028.5 yuan per ton [24] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.96%, - 0.88%, and + 1.31% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price fell by 2.97% [25] - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.96%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.02%, + 0.67%, + 0.34%, and + 2.02% respectively compared to the previous week [27] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai [30] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decreased [32] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [32] Summary - Overall production heat declined, and commodity prices fell. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [34]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global soybean supply is expected to remain ample due to increased production in South America, despite a decrease in U.S. acreage. This situation, combined with a slowdown in global protein consumption growth, is likely to exert downward pressure on prices, particularly for U.S. soybeans, which will face export competition. The focus will be on the support levels between 1050-1080 [2][43]. Group 1: International Soybean Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oilseed supply is projected to increase in the 2025/26 year, with ending stocks expected to rise by approximately 2 million tons year-on-year [12]. - The increase in oilseed production will primarily come from canola, while soybean production is expected to decline slightly, although soybean crushing demand remains strong [12][13]. - The U.S. soybean export outlook for 2025/26 is pessimistic, with potential downward adjustments anticipated for export estimates and ending stocks [14]. Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Supply and Demand Outlook - China's soybean imports are expected to stabilize at around 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 year, with a significant portion coming from Brazil [29]. - The domestic soybean meal consumption outlook is concerning due to the livestock industry's losses entering a capacity reduction phase, which may lead to a downward shift in price levels [2][43]. - The domestic market is expected to experience a weak basis and lower price levels as the industry adjusts to changing supply dynamics [2][43]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The soybean meal market is anticipated to operate within a wide range of 2600-3200, influenced by near-term supply and long-term tightening expectations [4][45]. - Price fluctuations are expected in the first half of the year due to temporary supply-demand mismatches, followed by a stabilization period as supply pressures increase [4][45]. - The Brazilian soybean market is under pressure from high export volumes, which could lead to significant downward pressure on prices if weather conditions remain favorable [24].

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: Weak Expectations for US Soybean Export Demand, Decline in CBOT Soybean Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean price declined due to weak US soybean export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The US soybean export demand is expected to remain weak, while the US soybean crushing outlook is positive. The USDA December report maintained the forecast for the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels [9]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of December 12, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1076.25 cents per bushel, down 2.62% from the previous week. The decline was due to weak export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The USDA December report did not adjust the 25/26 US soybean production forecast, and the export demand forecast remained unchanged. The US soybean crushing expectation is still at a high level [9]. 2. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $302.0 per short - ton, down 1.76% from the previous week, affected by the weakening of CBOT soybean prices and sufficient supply expectations [13]. - **Domestic Market**: As of December 12, the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2770 yuan per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week, driven by a decline in soybean import costs and potential increases in soybean supply from state - reserve auctions. However, the slow pace of domestic US soybean purchases may support the price. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream soybean meal trading increased, and the spot basis strengthened [17]. 3. Soybean Oil - **External Market**: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 50.07 cents per pound, down 3.15% from the previous week, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices and related competing vegetable oil prices [21]. - **Domestic Market**: The DCE soybean oil main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the DCE soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8240 yuan per ton, down 0.31% from the previous week, and the 2605 contract closed at 7994 yuan per ton, down 1.06%. The decline was due to a drop in soybean import costs and high domestic oil mill soybean oil inventories. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills were at a high level, downstream trading demand was average, and the soybean oil spot basis remained volatile [24]. II. Growing Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Growing Area Weather - **Past Week (12.5 - 12.12)**: Rainfall in Goiás and Rio Grande do Sul was above normal, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. Temperatures in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area and parts of Paraná were below normal, and the rest of the areas had normal temperatures [26]. - **Next Week (12.14 - 12.21)**: Rainfall in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area is expected to be above normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal rainfall. Temperatures in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná are expected to be below normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal temperatures [27]. 2. Argentine Soybean Growing Area Weather - **Past Week (12.5 - 12.12)**: Rainfall in parts of Córdoba and Santa Fe was above normal, parts of Buenos Aires had less rainfall, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. The overall temperature in the main soybean - growing area was normal [33]. - **Next Week (12.14 - 12.21)**: Rainfall and temperature in the main soybean - growing area are expected to be normal [35]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report made minor adjustments to the 24/25 US soybean supply - demand balance sheet, keeping the 24/25 ending stocks forecast at 316 million bushels. The 25/26 balance sheet was unchanged, with the ending stocks forecast at 290 million bushels, in line with the November report and lower than the market expectation of 309 million bushels [43]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Illinois, the prices of downstream soybean oil and soybean meal all declined. The US soybean crushing volume in October was 7.11 million short - tons, up 9.86% year - on - year. As of October 2025, the cumulative crushing volume in the 25/26 season was 13.26 million short - tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.87%. The US crude soybean oil inventory was 1.353 billion pounds, up 20.25% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory was 346,300 short - tons, up 14.14% year - on - year [44][48]. - **Export Inspection & Export Sales**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week and met expectations, with the cumulative year - on - year decline slightly narrowing. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,018,127 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume so far in this crop year was 12,899,667 tons, a 45.24% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative year - on - year decline in 25/26 US soybean export sales continued to widen. As of the week of November 13, 25/26 cumulative export sales (including unshipped) were 18.4025 million tons, a 41.09% year - on - year decrease [52][53]. - **US Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $64.29 per ton, down from $66.54 on December 5 [57]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of December 12, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 104 cents, down 3.5 cents from December 5 [58]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - Brazilian Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report maintained the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast at 175 million tons, in line with market expectations. It also raised the 25/26 Brazilian soybean import forecast by 150,000 tons to 500,000 tons, and the ending stocks forecast was raised to 3.651 million tons [61]. - **Soybean Production Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production, with the USDA forecasting 175 million tons [64]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% according to CONAB, 94% according to AgRural. The sowing progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 76% as of December 11, and the sowing in Paraná was 100% complete as of December 9, with a good - rate of 89% [65]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in December to 3.33 million tons. As of the first week of December 2025, Brazil had exported 970,900 tons of soybeans that week, and the cumulative export volume was 105.78 million tons, an 8.53% year - on - year increase. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 95.17%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 28.56% [74]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [77]. - **Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit was $70.99 per ton, down from $77.68 on December 5 [79]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - Argentine Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report raised the 24/25 Argentine soybean crushing forecast by 100,000 tons to 4.322 million tons, and the 24/25 ending stocks forecast was lowered to 2.309 million tons. For 25/26, the production forecast was maintained at 4.85 million tons, and the ending stocks forecast was lowered by 100,000 tons to 2.284 million tons [83]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of the week of December 11, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 58% according to SAGyP and 58.6% according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The good - rate of sown soybeans was 58%, and the proportion of soil in good moisture condition in the main growing areas was 91% [84]. - **Farmer Sales**: As of the week of December 3, 2025, Argentine farmers' 24/25 soybean export sales increased week - on - week. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 84.7%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.4% [88][90]. - **Argentine Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the Argentine soybean crushing profit was $2.18 per ton, up from $1.57 on December 5 [93]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - **Chinese Imported Soybean Procurement Progress**: The weekly procurement progress of Chinese imported soybeans as of December 9, 2025, was provided by McDonald Pelz [95]. - **Port and Oil - Mill Soybean Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 206,000 tons, and the oil - mill soybean inventory in the 49th week was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% week - on - week decrease [97]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing**: In the 49th week, the domestic full - sample oil - mill soybean arrival was about 1.898 million tons. In the 50th week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0375 million tons, and the operating rate was 56.05% [100]. - **Soybean Oil Trading Volume**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the weekly trading volume of soybean oil was 82,600 tons, down from 136,900 tons in the previous week [102]. - **Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption**: In the 50th week, the soybean oil production of 125 major domestic oil mills was 376,900 tons, and the apparent consumption in the 49th week was 396,100 tons, both showing a decline [105]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.163 million tons, a 1.34% week - on - week decrease and an 18.40% year - on - year increase [108]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - **Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.6096 million tons, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease, and the apparent consumption as of the week of December 5 was 1.6654 million tons, a 1.42% week - on - week decrease [110]. - **Oil - Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed - Mill Physical Inventory Days**: As of December 5, 2025, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% week - on - week decrease. As of December 12, the feed - mill physical inventory days were 9.13 days, a 0.64 - day week - on - week increase [113]. - **Soybean Meal Trading and Pick - up**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal trading volume was 912,100 tons, a 30.04% week - on - week increase, and the pick - up volume was 972,640 tons, a 5.55% week - on - week increase [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in self - breeding and self - raising pig farming and purchased - piglet farming slightly improved. As of December 3, the national pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio both declined [118][120]. - **Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of December 12, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 23,830 lots [122]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Cross - Commodity Spread - **Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread**: Relevant data on the basis of Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, and Tianjin first - grade soybean oil against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil are presented [126][138]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread**: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Tianjin against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal are provided [136][141]. - **Cross - Commodity Spread**: Information on the 05 spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the 05 ratio of soybean oil/soybean meal, corn/soybean meal is given [143][145]. 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes for soybean oil, US soybean meal, Argentine soybean meal, and Brazilian soybean meal FOB are presented [147][148][154]. 3. CFTC Positioning - Data on the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds are provided [152][155].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, affected by the corn auction news, the market's bearish sentiment quickly rose, and both futures and spot prices weakened. Currently, the grain sales progress in the producing areas is faster than the same period last year, increasing the supply in the spot market. The expectation of overdue wheat auctions has further dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. However, recent snow and rain in the north have reduced the arrival of corn trucks in the North China producing areas, tightening the spot market supply and supporting prices. In the short term, corn prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [9][80]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (一)期货价格 - Last week, the corn futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of the night session on Friday, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,242 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, and C2603 closed at 2,234 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The CBOT corn futures main contract fluctuated, closing at 440.50 cents per bushel [6][13][17]. (二)现货价格 - Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2,321 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Corn prices in Northeast China declined slightly, those in North China first rose then fell, prices in the selling areas decreased slightly, and prices at the northern ports adjusted narrowly [8][22][24]. (三)基差 - As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - the main contract was 58 yuan/ton, 23 yuan/ton stronger than the previous week [28]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - The total sown area of 8 major field crops in the US in 2026 is expected to decrease slightly. Market expectations for the ending stocks of US wheat, corn, and soybeans in 2025/26 will be moderately adjusted. Analysts expect Brazil's total corn production to be 1.3196 billion tons, slightly higher than the November estimate. Brazil's corn exports in November increased compared to last year. Ukraine's grain exports from July to December 5 decreased compared to last year. Argentina's corn planting progress has accelerated. The US Department of Agriculture will release export sales reports, and analysts expect US corn export net sales to be between 1 - 2 million tons for the week ending November 6, 2025 [29][30][33]. - Many regions and institutions have released a series of information on corn production, exports, and policies, including the US, Brazil, Ukraine, Argentina, and others. For example, Brazil's corn export forecast for December has been raised, and the US government will provide a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan [34][35][40]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 1.饲料企业库存情况 - As of December 11, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from the previous week, up 3% month - on - month and down 2.51% year - on - year. Feed enterprise inventories continued to increase this period but remained at a low level in recent years [47]. 2.深加工企业玉米库存情况 - As of December 11, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.94 million tons, up 6.75% month - on - month and down 28.8% year - on - year [51]. 3.深加工企业玉米消耗情况 - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.09 million tons from the previous week. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [56]. 4.深加工企业开机情况 - Last week, the corn processing volume, starch output, and operating rate of corn starch enterprises all increased slightly. The total corn processing volume of major corn starch processing enterprises was 635,700 tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous week [61]. 5.深加工企业利润情况 - Recently, high corn prices have shrunk the profits of deep - processing enterprises. However, the profits of processing enterprises in Shandong have improved. As of last Friday, the hedging by - product profits of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang showed different trends [66]. 6.进出口情况 - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous month and 110,000 tons from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a decrease of 11.84 million tons from the same period last year [70]. 4.关联品情况 1.玉米淀粉 - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The prices in different regions showed different trends [75]. 2.生猪 - Last week, the hog price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The national average hog slaughter price was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week, down 0.27% month - on - month and 28.59% year - on - year [79]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - Short - term corn prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. For trading strategies, treat it as a fluctuating market for single - sided trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [9][80][81].

近强远弱格局 主力震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 豆粕周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约跌29收于1076.25美分/蒲式耳， 跌幅2.62%；豆粕01合约涨47收于3083元/吨，涨幅 1.55%；华南豆粕现货涨60收于3060元/吨，涨幅1.32%； 菜粕01合约涨14收于2411元/吨，涨幅0.58%；广西菜粕 现货涨20收于2500元/吨，涨幅0.81%。 ⚫ 12月USDA报告美豆平衡表未作调整，影响偏中性，阿根 廷小幅度下调大豆出口关税，情绪上带来偏空影响，市 场对美豆出口需求担忧 ...

Report Summary - The report is an early morning report on agricultural product options dated December 15, 2025 [1] - The overall market shows that oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products and soft commodities have mixed trends. The strategy suggests constructing an option portfolio mainly composed of sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Market Trends**: Oilseeds and oils are in a weakly volatile state, agricultural by - products and soft commodities maintain a volatile market, and grains show a slightly bullish and narrow - range consolidation [2] - **Strategies**: Construct an option portfolio mainly with sellers, and use spot hedging or covered strategies to increase returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various agricultural product options, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No. 1 (A2603) is 4,126, down 20 with a decline rate of 0.48%, and the trading volume is 1.25 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open Interest PCR - It provides information on the volume - to - open interest PCR (Put - to - Call Ratio) of different option varieties, which helps to analyze the strength and potential turning points of the option underlying markets. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No. 1 is 0.74 with a change of 0.06, and the open interest PCR is 1.08 with a change of - 0.01 [4] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are presented. For example, the pressure level of soybean No. 1 is 4,250, and the support level is 4,100 [5] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared to the annual average. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No. 1 is 11.62%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.72% with a change of 0.21% [6] 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No. 1**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, it suggests constructing a short neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: With the analysis of fundamentals and market trends, it recommends constructing a short neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: Considering the market situation, it proposes a bearish call spread strategy for direction, a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: Given the current situation, it suggests a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Live Hogs**: Based on the analysis, it recommends a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [10] - **Eggs**: It suggests a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] - **Apples**: It recommends a short bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujubes**: It suggests a short bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: It recommends a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: It suggests a short neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot [13] 3.3.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: It recommends a short neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [13] - **Starch**: Although not detailed in the summary part, relevant data and analysis are provided for it in the report [300 - 316] 3.3.5 Other Options - **Log**: The report provides relevant data and analysis, but specific strategy recommendations are not emphasized [317 - 336]

2025年12月15日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周五美股大幅走弱，市场讨论甲骨文和博通财报不及预期，风险偏好整体下行。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | | | 格局延续，周度 TC 继续小幅下滑。精铜依然担忧伦敦挤仓，伦敦注销占比维持在 40%。国内精废价差 | 4400 | | | | 元附近，废铜票点上行 1.5%。 | | | | | 交易策略：观望等待买点。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.91%，收于 22170 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-155 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2875 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | ...