Market Overview - On March 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.45%, the STAR 50 climbed by 1.36%, the CSI 1000 went up by 0.96%, the ChiNext Index surged by 2.02%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 0.61% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on March 18 were telecommunications (+5.23%), computers (+2.46%), electronics (+2.41%), comprehensive (+2.36%), and defense industry (+1.82%). The worst-performing sectors were petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.47%), real estate (-1.05%), food and beverage (-0.91%), steel (-0.76%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.67%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on March 18 was 20,610.28 billion, with a net inflow of 1.217 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that the economic data for January and February 2026 is better than the market's previously cautious expectations, showing a strong production, improved investment, and a slow recovery in consumption [5] - The market's initial view was that the "opening red" would not be significant, but the report anticipates a clear "opening red" [5] - The driving factors for the economic performance include industrial output, exports, and policy support, while the self-driven recovery of domestic demand still needs further consolidation [5]

Group 1 - The company, Vanke Overseas (01036.HK), announced that it will hold a board meeting in Hong Kong on March 31, 2026, to approve the annual performance announcement for the year ending December 31, 2025, and to discuss the proposed final dividend declaration, if any [1]

Group 1 - The company, Country Garden (碧桂园), announced the issuance of 5.4054 million shares related to zero-coupon mandatory convertible bonds maturing in 78 months from June 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Country Garden (碧桂园) announced the issuance of 5.4054 million shares related to zero-interest mandatory convertible bonds, which will mature in 78 months starting from June 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company will issue 5.4054 million shares as part of the convertible bond arrangement [1] - The bonds are set to mature on March 18, 2026, with a term of 78 months [1] - The bonds will have no interest, indicating a unique financing structure for the company [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data at the beginning of 2026 improved, but the overall situation remained weak. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales from January to February was +2.8%, up 1.9 percentage points from December 2025 but down 0.89 percentage points from the whole year of 2025. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was +1.8%, up 5.6 percentage points from the whole year of 2025. The year-on-year decline of real estate development investment narrowed but remained in a large negative growth range, and real estate sales accelerated their decline, which might suppress post-cycle consumption such as furniture and home appliances. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was +6.3%, 1.1 percentage points faster than that in December 2025. Under the interweaving of internal and external factors, market expectations were frequently disturbed, and residents' consumption willingness and enterprises' investment confidence still needed to be restored. The supply pressure of the bond market was better than expected, and there might be certain pressure on economic growth. The risk of long-term bonds was low, and the yield was expected to decline. It was recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of long-duration bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Social Retail Sales - The growth rate of social retail sales rebounded but remained under pressure. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was +2.8%, 1.9 percentage points faster than that in December 2025, which might be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. The cumulative growth rate from January to February decreased by 0.89 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2025. The retail sales of grain, oil, food, and clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles above the quota increased by 10.2% and 10.4% respectively. The retail sales of communication equipment and household appliances and audio-visual equipment above the quota increased by 17.8% and 3.3% respectively. In the future, due to the high year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in the first half of 2025 and the decline in the support of consumption policies in 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in the first half of 2026 might be under pressure [2]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment turned from decline to growth, with infrastructure leading the recovery and real estate still under pressure. The pressure of fixed asset investment was alleviated stage by stage. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate ended four consecutive months of negative growth and turned from decline to growth from January to February. The year-on-year decline of real estate development investment narrowed but remained in a deep negative growth range. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was +1.8%, up 5.6 percentage points from the whole year of 2025, mainly driven by strong infrastructure investment (contributing about 3 percentage points) and accelerated growth of manufacturing investment (pulling 0.8 percentage points), while the drag effect of real estate investment weakened [2]. Real Estate - Real estate sales accelerated their decline, and the decline of private investment narrowed but remained under pressure. From January to February, the sales area of new commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, and the sales volume was 818.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. The sales area and volume of residential housing decreased by 15.9% and 21.8% respectively, which might suppress post-cycle consumption such as furniture and home appliances. The "sales - investment" negative feedback mechanism of real estate might still continue. At the end of February, the unsold area of commercial housing was 799.98 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, indicating potential inventory pressure. From January to February, private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, 3.8 percentage points narrower than that in the whole year of 2025, ending the trend of expanding negative growth for six consecutive months but still not turning positive [2]. Industrial Added Value - The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size accelerated, and the leading role of new kinetic energy increased. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was +6.3%, reaching a recent high, 1.1 percentage points faster than that in December 2025. The industrial production accelerated significantly and continued to recover. Among the three major categories, the mining industry, manufacturing industry, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 6.1%, 6.6%, and 4.7% respectively year-on-year, 0.7, 0.9, and 3.9 percentage points higher than that in December 2025. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above designated size increased by 13.1% and 9.3% respectively year-on-year, faster than the overall industrial added value above designated size. With the gradual improvement of demand and the continuous release of policy effects, the industrial economy was expected to maintain a stable growth trend [2][3]. Economic Growth - Economic growth might still face certain pressure. In January - February 2026, China's foreign trade achieved a "good start", but domestic demand remained under pressure. The support of consumption policies declined, the growth rate of social retail sales rebounded but was overall weak, real estate sales accelerated their decline, and private investment remained in the negative growth range, which might restrict economic recovery. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, the market lowered the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and overseas trade frictions disturbed, so the resilience of future foreign trade growth needed to be observed. In terms of prices, in February 2026, the year-on-year increase of CPI rose significantly to 1.3% (a three - year high), and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to -0.9%, with five consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth. The war between the US and Iran might further narrow the decline [3]. Bond Investment - The adjustment of long-term bonds might be an opportunity, and it was recommended to seize the band operation opportunities. Recently, the RMB appreciated significantly, which was beneficial to the Chinese bond market. Currently, the long-term bond positions of trading desks were still small, and the year-on-year recovery of PPI was a general market expectation, so the risk of long-term bonds might be low. The deposit interest rate was low, and insurance premiums were expected to grow rapidly. In March, the allocation of ultra-long bonds by insurance funds might increase, and the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond was expected to fall below 2.20%. It was expected that the low point of the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the first quarter might reach 1.75%, and the low point in the second quarter was expected to reach 1.70%. It was expected that the 10-year Treasury bond yield in 2026 would fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. Currently, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of old 30Y Treasury bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and long-duration sinking capital bonds [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is experiencing a recovery in first-tier cities, while third-tier cities remain sluggish. The overall performance of the real estate sector in 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, signaling a narrowing of price declines and the emergence of structural opportunities rather than a complete market reversal. Historical data from the US, Japan, and Hong Kong suggest that stock prices may stabilize approximately 4-6 months before housing prices, leading to a positive outlook for real estate stocks in the second half of the year, with a focus on China Resources Land [4] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 161.83 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 1,373.51 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 101.19 million square meters, down 41% year-on-year but up 14% month-on-month. Specifically, first-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 26.56 million square meters, down 47% year-on-year but up 36.5% month-on-month [5][13] Second-hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the past week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 237.88 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,016.41 million square meters, down 7.1% year-on-year. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 142.67 million square meters, down 43.3% year-on-year but up 17.5% month-on-month [6][18] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 31 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 16 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land transactions was 8,348 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 8.21%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.11 percentage points [26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.53%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.19%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.72 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 2.08%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 1.06 percentage points [29][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is experiencing a "small spring" in 2026, with better performance compared to 2025. However, it emphasizes that this is more about a reduction in price declines and the emergence of structural opportunities rather than a turning point between bull and bear markets. It suggests that stock prices may stabilize approximately 4-6 months ahead of housing prices, with a positive outlook for real estate stocks in the second half of the year, particularly recommending China Resources Land [4] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 161.83 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 1,373.51 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 101.19 million square meters, down 41% year-on-year but up 14% month-on-month. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a 47% year-on-year decline but a 36.5% month-on-month increase in average transaction area [5][13] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the past week, the second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities was 237.88 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 2,016.41 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 142.67 million square meters, down 43.3% year-on-year but up 17.5% month-on-month [6][18] Land Market Transactions - Last week, 100 major cities saw 31 new residential land supplies and 16 residential land transactions. The average transaction price for residential land was 8,348 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 8.21%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.11 percentage points [6][26] Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.53%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.19%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.72 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index dropped by 2.08% [29][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is in a phase of volume - shrinking adjustment with relatively limited overall selling pressure. Due to the lack of clear driving factors, it may continue the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short term, waiting for new catalytic signals [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: The National Development and Reform Commission is organizing the application for national - level iconic major application scenario projects with a list to be released to the public. Eligible projects will be given priority support in existing funding channels. Around 100 iconic scenario projects will be determined nationwide, covering scenarios like multi - provincial clean energy corridors, full - space unmanned systems, and elderly care services in aging - prone areas [2] - **Geopolitical Aspect**: US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with NATO as his invitation for allies to participate in escorting in the Strait of Hormuz was cold - shouldered. He said that whether the US should withdraw from NATO is "something we should consider", as most NATO allies are reluctant to get involved in US military operations against Iran [2] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.85% to close at 4049.91 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.29%. Most sector indices declined, with only non - bank finance, banking, food and beverage, and real estate sectors closing in the green. Communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, and machinery sectors led the decline. The daily market turnover was 2.2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.47% to 22479.53 points [2] - **Basis Convergence**: In the futures market, with the Friday delivery of the current - month contract, the basis tended to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF and IM increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The market is in a volume - shrinking adjustment phase. With limited selling pressure but lacking clear driving factors, it may continue to oscillate within a range in the short term, awaiting new catalysts [3] Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4049.91 on March 17, 2026, down 0.85% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14039.73, down 1.87%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3280.06, down 2.29%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4637.44, down 0.73%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2963.58, up 0.32%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 8016.03, down 2.07%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 8019.86, down 2.33% [13] - **Other Charts**: There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF was 146045, an increase of 21683; the open interest was 280450, an increase of 6776. The trading volume of IH was 69141, an increase of 8837; the open interest was 106613, a decrease of 3547. The trading volume of IC was 170339, an increase of 560; the open interest was 281417, a decrease of 7462. The trading volume of IM was 235540, an increase of 16761; the open interest was 382072, an increase of 508 [17] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts (current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter) and their changes are presented [40] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) of IH, IF, IC, and IM and their changes are provided [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be volatile. The global stock market continues to fluctuate, with the A - share market opening higher and closing lower. The ChiNext Index fell more than 2% in the afternoon, and over 4,500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets declined. The trading volume on the day was 2.22 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.29% [1]. - The bond market is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The central bank conducted 510 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 115 billion yuan. However, due to geopolitical conflicts, the oil price has risen significantly, and the domestic inflation data is expected to pick up faster, which is negative for the bond market, especially long - term bonds. In the context of weak interest - rate cut expectations, the bond market should be viewed with a bearish mindset [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The global stock market is volatile, and the A - share market shows a weak trend. Factors such as the prolonged US - Iran conflict leading to increased oil prices, a significant decrease in the US February non - farm payrolls, and concerns about AI squeezing out the traditional economy have all contributed to the market decline [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's open - market operations led to a net injection of funds. Although the treasury bond futures closed up, short - term inflation expectations may have a negative impact on the bond market [1][2]. 3.2 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 17, 2026, IH rose 0.34%, IF fell 0.73%, IC fell 2.18%, and IM fell 2.11% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.32%, the CSI 300 fell 0.73%, the CSI 500 fell 2.07%, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.33% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.02%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market opened higher and closed lower, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2% in the afternoon. Over 4,500 stocks declined, and the trading volume was 2.22 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all closed down [4]. - **Industry Sectors**: Sectors such as steel, real estate, large - finance, and precious metals strengthened against the trend, while sectors such as computing power hardware, oil and gas, semiconductor chips, and power grids led the decline [4]. - **Popular Concepts**: Stocks in the steel, real estate, and large - finance sectors had some strong performers. Computing power hardware stocks such as CPO adjusted significantly [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - term treasury bond futures, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads. There is also a chart of capital interest rates [12][13][14][15][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and exchange rates between major international currencies [20][21][22][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's public land prices have seen a significant increase, with a national average rise of 2.8% in 2026, marking the highest growth since the economic bubble burst in 1992, driven by strong demand for office spaces and substantial investment inflows [2][7]. Group 1: National Trends - The national average public land price has increased for five consecutive years, reaching a growth rate of 2.8% in 2026, the highest since the bubble economy period [2]. - The Tokyo area experienced a public land price increase of 5.7%, while the Osaka area saw a rise of 3.8% [4]. - The average price for commercial land in Tokyo's Chuo Ward is 67.1 million yen per square meter (approximately 2.9 million RMB), reflecting a 10.9% increase from the previous year [4]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - Real estate investments exceeding 10 billion yen increased by 31% in 2025, reaching 6.5 trillion yen, surpassing the previous record set in 2007 [5][6]. - Overseas investors contributed significantly, with a record purchase amount of 2.4 trillion yen, including major transactions by Blackstone Group [7]. - Approximately 40% of Japan's domestic real estate investment in 2025 was attributed to office buildings, indicating strong demand driven by corporate performance [7]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The rental prices for office buildings in Tokyo's central five districts rose by 7.3% year-on-year, with a vacancy rate of around 2%, well below the 5% equilibrium standard [7]. - The ongoing tight supply-demand situation for office spaces in central Tokyo is expected to persist until around 2030, influenced by rising construction costs and labor shortages [8]. - The low interest rate environment in Japan, despite a slight increase in policy rates, continues to support real estate investments [9].