1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

Group 1 - The chemical industry exhibits significant cyclical characteristics, with the soda ash sector currently in a bottom adjustment phase due to the downturn in downstream industries like real estate [1] - The company is implementing measures such as optimizing production organization, adjusting product structure, reducing production consumption, enhancing procurement management, innovating marketing models, and strictly controlling expenses to maximize operational performance and risk resistance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass is showing a strong upward trend with supply - side disturbances, while soda ash is in a weak downward trend. For the double - silicon products, the market sentiment is cautious, and the alloys are fluctuating [1][3] - The overall strategy is that glass and silicon products are in a fluctuating state, while soda ash is in a weak fluctuating state [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong upward trend yesterday, and the spot market prices remained stable with good sales by manufacturers [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market showed a weak downward trend yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. Although some production lines have been gradually shut down for maintenance, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of glass production line shutdowns [1] - Soda ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has rebounded. Considering the future new production projects of soda ash and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, it is necessary to suppress the production profits of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Fluctuating [2] - Soda ash: Weakly fluctuating [2] 3.2 Double - Silicon Products (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated yesterday. Before the festival, steel mills' inventory replenishment has gradually ended, and mainstream steel mills have not launched a new round of tenders. The prices are relatively firm. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market fluctuated yesterday. The spot market transactions were average, and downstream inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved. There is an expected increase in molten iron production in the future, and the demand for silicon manganese will improve marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. Recently, the South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, which may increase the cost of manganese ore in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of silicon iron and the power price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for soda ash is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1208.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1234.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.08% increase [1] - Soda ash production has increased to 111,400 tons per day, with an operating rate of 83.8%. However, demand from glass manufacturers is stabilizing, and inventory levels are rising [2] - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to oversupply pressures, with a recommendation for a short-selling strategy in the medium to long term, while short-term price support is expected due to winter storage demand [2][3] Group 2 - The float glass industry is experiencing a slight increase in operating rates, but demand remains weak, leading to stable soda ash prices. New orders are limited, and manufacturers are maintaining low inventory levels [2] - Southern soda ash producers are planning maintenance, which may lead to a decrease in operating rates. The overall supply is under pressure, and caution is advised in pursuing long positions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. Therefore, the loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. Meanwhile, the warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate in the bottom - range in February, and the oversupply situation will continue to deepen in the medium - term. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [4][24]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In January, there were few domestic device maintenance enterprises, and with the release of new capacities, the supply steadily recovered. In February, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply in February is expected to further increase. As of January 30, the overall operating rate of soda ash devices was 84.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%; the weekly output of soda ash was 78.31 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.14 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46 tons. The total output of soda ash in January was about 3.4138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 233,300 tons, with a growth rate of 7.34%. In February, Southern Alkali Industry has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans for the time being. However, there will still be enterprises resuming production after maintenance, and the load of new capacities will continue to increase, so the supply level of soda ash will increase again, and it is possible that the weekly output will exceed 800,000 tons [6]. - In January, the inventory of soda ash enterprises first increased and then decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of January 30, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.51%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 194,000 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival in February, downstream enterprises will shut down for holidays and logistics will stop, so there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the market will still face relatively high inventory pressure year - on - year after the Spring Festival [8][9]. - In January, the profit of the soda ash joint - alkali process slightly improved, while the profit of the ammonia - alkali process continued to decline, but the overall situation was still in a loss. As of January 30, the production cost of soda ash for ammonia - alkali manufacturers in North China was 1,380.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 160.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton; the production cost of soda ash for joint - alkali manufacturers in East China was 1,274.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of soda ash manufacturers was - 94.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. In February, the supply - demand situation may not improve, and it is expected that the industry profit will continue to be in a loss. In the medium - term, in the long - cycle of soda ash oversupply, low industry profit may become the norm, but continuous industry losses will support a partial reduction in phased supply [10]. Demand Side - In January, the supply of float glass continued to decline, and there is still an expectation of further decline in February. As of January 30, 2026, the production profit of float glass using coal as raw material was - 68.50 (- 3.39) yuan/ton, the production profit using petroleum coke as raw material was 1.07 (+ 2.85) yuan/ton, and the production profit using natural gas as raw material was - 155.12 (+ 3.57) yuan/ton. Except for the coal - based process, the process profits of petroleum coke and natural gas improved month - on - month, but the overall industry profit was still poor. In January, 1 float glass production line was ignited, 3 production lines were shut down for water release, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass, resulting in little change in the number of operating production lines. The weekly output decreased from 1.075125 million tons to 1.056965 million tons, and the industry operating rate decreased from 73.04% to 71.86%. After the Spring Festival, there are still plans to shut down production lines for cold repair, with a maximum daily melting volume of 2,500 tons per day. If implemented, the daily melting volume of float glass in production will drop to about 148,500 tons [13]. - In January, the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased. The ending inventory decreased from 56.866 million weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 7.57%, and it has now fallen to the historical median level. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation for glass factories. In addition, the inventory levels of middle - stream goods in core regions such as Hebei and Hubei are also at a high level, and the market will face double high - inventory pressures from manufacturers and traders after the Spring Festival [14]. - As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was - 17.20% (- 1.30%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate construction area was - 10.00% (- 0.40%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in newly started construction area was - 20.40% (+ 0.10%), the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate completion area was - 18.10% (- 0.10%), and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was - 8.70% (- 0.90%). In December 2025, the production and sales of automobiles decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of automobiles in December were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 and 157,000 respectively. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.4% in production and 9.4% in sales [15][17]. - As of December 2025, the monthly actual consumption of soda ash was 3.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.64%. In February, the domestic soda ash market is not optimistic, with prices fluctuating at the bottom and expectations of decreased transactions and consumption. In December 2025, China's soda ash imports were 3,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, with a growth rate of 1278%; exports were 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons, with a growth rate of 22.91%. From January to December, the cumulative imports were 25,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.41%; the cumulative exports were 2.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.75%. It is expected that in 2026, the high - level export of soda ash will continue, and the import window is almost non - existent [19]. Recent Macro - event Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jerome Powell, whose term will end in May 2026. Warsh is expected to support interest rate cuts but will not adopt the more radical policy - easing measures advocated by some other potential candidates, which has caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market, with a neutral - bearish rating [21]. - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Fed Chairman Powell said that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have both decreased, suggesting that there is no urgent need to further reduce borrowing costs. This is the first pause after a continuous interest - rate cut cycle, and this result was widely expected in the financial market, with a neutral rating [21]. - The Iranian President has ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the US, and the two sides are likely to hold high - level talks in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6, with a neutral rating [21]. Summary and Outlook - Overall, in January, the supply of soda ash increased, demand was weakly stable, and enterprise inventories slightly accumulated, with fundamental pressure still present. In February, the supply level still has room for improvement, and as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, the demand for soda ash will continue to shrink. The loose supply - demand situation of soda ash is expected to deepen, and the inventory pressure on enterprises before the Spring Festival will further increase. The warming of external macro - sentiment, important domestic meetings in early March, and the trends of coal and black varieties in the futures market all have a linkage effect on the futures price of soda ash. It is expected that the futures price of soda ash will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in February. In the medium - term, the oversupply situation will continue to deepen. If there are no unexpectedly positive factors in the macro and policy aspects, the futures and spot prices of soda ash will be under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the full - production time of new capacities, changes in enterprise inventories, purchasing power of the middle and lower reaches, downstream production capacities and operating conditions, macro - policies, and the overall sentiment of the commodity market [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has declined, leading to price drops. The core contradiction lies in the fact that steel mills' profits support high blast furnace operating rates, but terminal demand seasonally shrinks before the Spring Festival, resulting in light trading volume and increasing inventory. Cost provides support, and prices are unlikely to fall significantly under policy constraints, oscillating in the bottom range [3]. - The iron ore industry is in a supply - demand off - season with no prominent contradictions. Supported by steel mills' inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal production, the downside price space is limited [24]. - Affected by overseas supply disruptions, international coking coal prices are strong, and domestic Shanxi coal prices are also firm. The coking coal basis is at a relatively high level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be more volatile. In the long - term, the market will focus on the resumption of domestic coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [37]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. Silicon manganese is suppressed by high inventory, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better. In the short term, ferroalloys are expected to oscillate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [50]. - The temporary upsurge in commodity sentiment may drive up some undervalued varieties. If the futures prices rise, there is some room for mid - and downstream inventory replenishment, but demand is average with limited elasticity. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, photovoltaic glass inventory continues to accumulate, and the balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. High exports of soda ash alleviate domestic pressure to some extent, while high inventory in the upper and middle reaches restricts prices [64]. - Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual and expected demand are weak. In the context of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are still waiting for cold repair and ignition, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy may also disrupt supply. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3182 yuan/ton, 3099 yuan/ton, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3310 yuan/ton, 3265 yuan/ton, and 3286 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3311 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, 3140 yuan/ton respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3260 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton respectively [10][12]. Other Data - The 01 - 05 rebar spread was 82 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [4]. - The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 48 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [10][12]. - The 01 roll - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, and the roll - rebar spot spread in Shanghai was 30 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [17]. - The ratios of 01 rebar to 01 iron ore and 01 rebar to 01 coke were both 4 and 2 respectively on February 3, 2026 [21]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 749 yuan/ton, 777.5 yuan/ton, and 760 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Karara powder, and Rizhao Super Special powder were 786 yuan/ton, 886 yuan/ton, and 675 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Fundamental Data - On January 30, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 227.98 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons [31]. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the 09 - 01 coking coal spread was - 171.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 coke spread was - 93.5 yuan/ton [40]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1630 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [43]. Other Data - The on - site coking profit was - 24 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [40]. - The main coking coal to power coal ratio was 2.4035 on February 3, 2026 [43]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On February 3, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5450 yuan/ton [51]. Silicon Manganese - On February 3, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 194 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [52]. Other Data - The double - silicon spread was - 216 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [52]. Soda Ash Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1201 yuan/ton, 1265 yuan/ton, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively [65]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the heavy soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash market price was 1200 yuan/ton [65]. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of soda ash was - 64 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [65]. Glass Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1072 yuan/ton, 1176 yuan/ton, and 1230 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Spot Prices - Not provided in a comprehensive way in the given content. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of glass was - 104 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [89]. - On January 30, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 102%, and in Hubei was 75% [90].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jinjing Technology (sh600586) reached its daily limit with a price of 6.4 yuan, reflecting a 9.97% increase and a total market capitalization of 9.071 billion yuan, driven by factors such as share buybacks, governance optimization, and reduced financial burdens [1] Group 2 - The company completed a 100 million yuan share buyback for employee incentives, indicating management's confidence in future development [1] - Governance structure optimization was implemented, including the establishment of a strategic committee and streamlining the board of directors, which may enhance decision-making efficiency [1] - A decrease in borrowing rates has lowered financial expenses, alleviating the financial burden on the company [1] - The company reported positive operating cash flow in the third quarter, indicating a certain level of cash inflow capability, which helps ease market concerns about poor performance [1] Group 3 - In February 2026, the glass and soda ash industries showed some market activity, with capital inflow into the building materials sector, positively impacting Jinjing Technology's stock price [1] - Technical indicators, such as the MACD, showed a bullish trend after adjustments, suggesting a strengthening short-term upward trend [1] - On February 3, significant net inflow of large orders was observed, indicating that major funds' involvement contributed to the stock price hitting the daily limit [1]

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]