Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: なな女 - Methanol: ☆☆☆ - Styrene: ★☆☆ - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ - Plastic: ★☆☆ - PVC: ☆☆☆ - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ - PTA: ☆☆☆ - Ethylene Glycol: なな女 - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ - Glass: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are under downward pressure, while some have certain support factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, and raw material price fluctuations. [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined due to increased supply and weakened downstream buying sentiment, but inventory control provided some support [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell. Polyethylene had weak spot prices due to sufficient supply and low downstream demand. Polypropylene faced increased production and limited demand, resulting in an imbalanced supply - demand situation [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had low - level fluctuations, with falling spot prices and high port inventory, but future supply - demand pressure may ease. Consider long - short spreads on dips in the medium term [3]. - Styrene futures declined due to falling crude oil prices, weak pure benzene fundamentals, and expected increased supply [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA continued to fall due to lower oil prices. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5]. - Ethylene glycol had a slight rebound but still faced supply pressure, with long - term pressure from planned new production [5]. - Short fiber's load was high, with a slight inventory increase. Its long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand weakened, with a weak processing margin and over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fell, while the spot market was relatively stable. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to supply - demand factors [6]. - Urea futures were firm in a range. Although there was inventory reduction, high production and weakening market sentiment may lead to continued range - bound trading [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline due to weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate in a low - level range [7]. - Caustic soda was at a low level, with high inventory, increased production, and weak demand, leading to profit compression [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell below 1100 yuan due to cost and supply pressure, with a high - inventory situation. It is in a long - term supply - surplus pattern [8]. - Glass continued to decline. Although there was inventory reduction, recent sales weakened, and long - term cold - repair may be forced by low profits [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the decline of glass prices is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of 1030 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash continues to decline, breaking through the previous low - level support, and subsequent attention should be paid to the integer support level of 1000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the forward policy expectations have positive signals, and the "Three Major Projects" fund allocation is accelerating, which is expected to support the demand for infrastructure glass in Q1 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1094 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 964 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 130 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The positions of the soda ash and glass main contracts decreased by 79,430 hands and 54,739 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 soda ash decreased by 3,031, while that of glass increased by 5,254. The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash decreased by 724 tons, and those of glass increased by 303 tons. The basis of soda ash increased by 31 yuan/ton, and that of glass increased by 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the January and May glass contracts decreased by 6, and that of soda ash decreased by 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of North China heavy - soda ash and Central China heavy - soda ash remained unchanged at 1120 yuan/ton and 1300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China light - soda ash and Central China light - soda ash were stable at 1400 yuan/ton and 1165 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shahe glass sheets decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, and the price of Central China glass sheets remained at 1110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants increased by 0.66 percentage points to 80.74%, and the weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 73.63%. The weekly in - production capacity of glass decreased by 0.28 million tons/year to 15.44 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines decreased by 2 to 218. The weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises decreased by 3.61 million tons to 150.25 million tons, and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises decreased by 2.92 million heavy boxes to 59.442 million heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate completion area was 34,861 million square meters, an increase of 3,732 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Some soda ash plants had production adjustments, such as Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing production, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical maintaining stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan keeping stable output, Henan Haohua Junhua starting operation, Tangshan Sanyou reducing production to 70% load, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical resuming production, Shandong Haihua reducing load, Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang resuming load, Henan Jinshan reducing production for maintenance, and Chongqing Xiangyu Yanhua resuming production. For glass, the supply contraction trend will be more obvious next week, and the average daily melting volume in Q1 2026 is expected to drop to around 155,000 tons. The regional supply shows a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [2] 3.6 View Summary - The demand side is the core factor suppressing the current market. In the short - term, the decline in construction site start - up rates in the north, limited demand pull from the automotive industry and the export market, and weak terminal receiving willingness have a negative impact on the market. However, forward policy expectations are positive, and the "Three Major Projects" are expected to support infrastructure glass demand in Q1 2026 [2] 3.7 Prompt Attention - This week, the operating rate of soda ash plants declined. Although some plants such as Zhongyan Kunshan increased production and some completed maintenance, many other plants continued maintenance or reduced load. There is no large - scale maintenance plan for subsequent soda ash plants for now, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The demand from the glass industry, the largest downstream of soda ash, has decreased. If the cold - repair of glass production lines is implemented, the demand for heavy - soda ash will further decrease. Although the inventory of glass manufacturers has decreased to a low level, the short - term driving effect on soda ash demand is limited and there are downward risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is facing challenges due to oversupply and weak demand, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition through technological advancements and green manufacturing practices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - By 2025, the soda ash market is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, with high inventory levels indicating a cyclical adjustment phase [2]. - Domestic soda ash production capacity is projected to exceed 40 million tons by 2024, with a production increase of 493.1 million tons year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [2]. - The core downstream demand for soda ash comes from float glass, which accounts for 35%-40% of total demand, but new construction in the real estate sector has declined, limiting growth [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Starting from March 2024, soda ash inventory rose from 400,000 tons to a peak of 1.9 million tons, stabilizing above 1.4 million tons [3]. - As of November 27, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.409 million tons, with delivery warehouse inventory at 583,800 tons [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing intensified homogenization, with some companies resorting to price competition, which has compressed overall profit margins [4]. - The price of heavy soda ash peaked at 3,681 yuan per ton in October 2021, but has since fluctuated between 1,218.57 and 1,344.29 yuan in the third quarter of this year [4]. - Natural soda ash is gaining market share due to its cost advantages, increasing from 5% in 2022 to 17% in 2025, positioning it favorably against other production methods [4]. Group 4: Path to Value Competition - The industry must transition from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological and service upgrades to enhance competitiveness [5]. - There is a pressing need to develop high-value products for high-end sectors like renewable energy, which currently lack sufficient production capacity [5]. - Innovations in clean production methods and resource utilization are being prioritized, with companies exploring technologies such as using industrial waste salt for soda ash production [5]. Group 5: Collaborative Ecosystem and Global Expansion - Companies are shifting from independent operations to collaborative ecosystems, with industry leaders like China Salt Group leading initiatives to foster innovation through partnerships [6]. - Chinese soda ash production technology is being exported globally, exemplified by the launch of Indonesia's first soda ash project utilizing Chinese methods, contributing to the diversification of the global soda ash supply chain [6]. - The future of China's soda ash industry lies in enhancing high-end product supply, promoting green processes, and integrating value chains to establish a competitive edge in the global market [6].

陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-10 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3079 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 44 元/吨（-1.40%）。当日注册仓单 35821 吨, 环比减少 10455 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.3747 万手，环比增加 116170 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3252 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 39 元/吨（-1.18%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term outlook of "sideways" for the entire black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm. The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later period. The fundamentals are still under pressure after entering the off - season, and the steel futures market is running weakly. There is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, and there is an expectation of an increase in Mongolian coal imports. The iron ore and coking coal markets were weak during the day session and showed signs of stabilization at night. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are not good. Without any signals beyond expectations from the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the sector will still face downward adjustment pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are conducting annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the spot price has fallen, its cost - effectiveness has recovered. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported. It is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter restocking for raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment in the coking coal market. The downstream winter restocking that will start in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [2]. 3.3 Alloys - The firm cost supports the price, but the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient driving force for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the ferrosilicon manganese futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is relatively obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased. Although the overall supply - demand is still in surplus, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][12]. 3.5 Specific Products 3.5.1 Steel - The macro support is limited, and the futures market continues to be weak. The spot market transactions are generally weak. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance has increased, iron and steel production has declined from a high level, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the steel production will not decline significantly in the later period, and the futures market will run weakly [7]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The market sentiment is average, and the price fluctuates. The overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals have decreased significantly this period. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline seasonally, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrivals have increased slightly, and the price fluctuates. The supply has increased, and the demand from electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has changed. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate [9]. 3.5.4 Coke - The futures market has stabilized at a low level, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the spot market. The supply is affected by raw material prices and environmental protection, and the demand has declined seasonally. The inventory has slightly accumulated. The cost support has weakened, but there is an expectation of winter restocking. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal [10]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The auction transactions have improved slightly, and the futures market is still running weakly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the imports have recovered. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. The pessimistic sentiment needs time to reverse, and the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [11]. 3.5.6 Glass - The futures and spot transactions have improved, but the spot market is still weak. The supply is expected to decline in the long run but is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the high inventory of middle - stream enterprises suppresses the valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may have a downward pressure [12]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The industry is in the bottom - clearing stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. 3.5.8 Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost price is firm, and the decline of the futures price is limited. The cost support is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [14]. 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the futures price runs at a low level. The cost is at a high level, the demand from steel mills and metal magnesium is weak, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [16].

| 規格 | 市场 | 12月5日 | 12月8日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1220-1320 | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1200-1620 | 1200-1620 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1120-1370 | 1160-1370 | 40/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-1120 | -930-1120 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1220-1310 | 1220-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1350-1430 | 1350-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1340-1470 | 1340-1470 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1320 | 1170-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1260-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1220-1320- | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 890-1020 | 89 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-09 宏观⽀撑有限，盘⾯延续弱势 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以⼤幅下降，基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯弱 势运⾏。铁⽔仍有季节性⾛弱预期，蒙煤进⼝仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘⾯表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以大幅下降，基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面弱 势运行。铁水仍有季节性走弱预期，蒙煤进口仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘面表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 比增加，整体仍有累库压力。废钢基本面矛盾有限，现货 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering steel products, iron ore, glass, and soda ash, with data from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the medium to long - term, the steel industry's prosperity is declining, with weakening demand for rebar and downward pressure on iron ore futures prices. Glass and soda ash also face challenges, with limited upward momentum for glass and weak demand for soda ash [67][71] - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore are expected to trade in a range, while glass and soda ash are likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [68][72] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodities Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price rose from 3117 to 3157 (up 1%), with a spot price of 3290 and a basis of 133 [2] - **Hot - rolled coil (HC2605)**: Futures price increased from 3288 to 3320 (up 1%), spot price 3300, basis - 20 [2] - **Iron ore (I2601)**: Futures price dropped from 794 to 786 (down 1%), spot price 810, basis 25 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price rose from 1575 to 1585 (up 1%), spot price 1720, basis 135 [2] - **Coking coal (JM2605)**: Futures price decreased from 1152 to 1140 (down 1%), spot price 1510, basis 370 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price fell from 1053 to 994 (down 6%), spot price 1130, basis 136 [2] - **Soda ash (SA601)**: Futures price declined from 1177 to 1137 (down 3%), spot price 1258, basis 121 [2] 3.2 Rebar Analysis - **Profit**: On December 4, the blast - furnace profit for rebar was 31 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of December 5, the blast - furnace operating rate was 80.16% (down 0.93 percentage points), daily hot - metal output was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons), and weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons (down 16.77 tons) [12] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 10.96 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume of construction steel by major traders was 93,867 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, social rebar inventory was 361.13 tons (down 23.62 tons), and in - plant inventory was 142.68 tons (down 4.05 tons) [23] 3.3 Iron Ore Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, global iron - ore shipments were 3323.2 tons (up 44.8 tons), and arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2784 tons (down 155.5 tons) [28] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15991.11 tons (up 89.89 tons), and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 42.25 tons) [33] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 334.23 tons (down 9.83 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 126.6 tons [38] 3.4 Float Glass Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 218 (down 2), weekly output was 1085095 tons (down 18800 tons). As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate was 77.25%, and the operating rate was 73.4% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, in - plant float - glass inventory was 59.442 million weight - boxes (down 2.92 million tons), and the available inventory days were 26.8 days (down 0.7 days) [48] - **Demand**: In the week of December 1, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 10.1 days [52] 3.5 Soda Ash Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74% (down 0.66 percentage points), and production was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons) [55] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, in - plant soda - ash inventory was 153.86 tons (down 4.88 tons) [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of December 5, the soda - ash sales ratio was 106.93% (down 1.23 percentage points) [64] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Medium - to long - term outlook is bearish due to weakening demand and low winter - storage willingness. Short - term trading should be based on a range - bound strategy [67][68] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Medium - to long - term, glass has limited upward momentum, and soda - ash demand is weak. Short - term, they are expected to trade weakly and oscillate [71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs, with gradually improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and steel mills have actively carried out maintenance and production cuts. After the reduction in steel production, steel inventory has been destocked, and the contradictions in the industrial chain have been alleviated. The price of coking coal has generally declined, benefiting steel mills, and the profits of steel mills have recently increased. Steel mills now have the space and motivation for new production increases. Steel currently has low raw material inventory and has the demand for winter storage replenishment. With the approaching of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, macro - expectations provide support, and the short - term price decline space is limited [21]. - For coking coal, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and the production of hot metal has been continuously reduced. The supply and demand of coking coal have turned into a slight surplus. Coking enterprises are actively controlling the raw material procurement rhythm due to the expected price cuts, and the inventory pressure on upstream mines is becoming apparent. Short - term coal prices will still be under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal has decreased, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As the coking enterprises' production gradually resumes, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills. Considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, the spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price - cut pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may decline due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the supply side maintains the trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the price of finished steel has been relatively strong, and the market may pre - hype market expectations, driving the rebound of ferroalloys. However, due to the weak fundamentals of ferroalloys themselves, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [47]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is firm, the valuation has no upward elasticity without a trend - based production cut. The cold repair of glass has accelerated, and the expected rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The expectation of maintaining a high - level supply of soda ash in the medium and long term remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started inventory accumulation at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, and the balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In October, the export of soda ash exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - In December, the expectation of cold repair of glass production lines has resurfaced, and the implementation situation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot price in Hubei and the expectation of warehouse receipts. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold repair and the expected further decline in daily melting volume, but the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains at a high level, so there is still pressure on the spot price. The degree of inventory destocking in the mid - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3137, 3157, and 3192 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3320, and 3329 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed slight changes on December 5, 2025. For example, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3326 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [9][11]. - The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed compared with the previous day [4]. - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke remained unchanged at 4 and 2 respectively on December 5, 2025 [18]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil's futures prices, month - spreads, and basis were provided [5][6][7]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 785.5, 769, and 744 respectively, with daily changes of - 9, - 8, and - 9 respectively [22]. - The basis of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed certain changes [22]. - **Fundamentals** - On December 5, 2025, the daily average hot - metal production was 232.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.38 tons and a monthly decrease of 1.92 tons. The 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45 tons, a weekly decrease of 12.13 tons and a monthly decrease of 2.48 tons. Other indicators such as global shipping volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel - mill inventory also changed [25]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of iron ore's futures month - spreads and basis were provided [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - The month - spreads of coking coal and coke, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05, showed different degrees of changes on December 5, 2025. The immediate coking profit, main mine - coke ratio, main rebar - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio also changed [35]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and different types showed certain fluctuations on December 5, 2025 [38]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of coking coal and coke's futures month - spreads, basis, and coking profit were provided [40][41][42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, with a daily increase of 72. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions remained relatively stable, and indicators such as the price of semi - coke small materials and the price of thermal coal also showed certain changes [48]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, with a daily increase of 38. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions increased slightly, and the prices of different ores and the inventory of silicon manganese also changed [49][50]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese's production costs, profits, month - spreads, and basis were provided [51][52][53]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1213, 1275, and 1137 respectively, with daily changes of - 19, - 19, and - 25 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash also remained unchanged in most regions [62]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of soda ash's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, production capacity utilization, and production were provided [63][64][65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1115, 1176, and 994 respectively, with daily changes of - 16, - 12, and - 16 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also changed [85]. - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different degrees of fluctuations from November 28 to December 4, 2025 [86]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of glass's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, daily melting volume, and sales - to - production ratio were provided [87][88][89].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：供需格局未改，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，盘面成交活跃，持仓量下降。现货方面，区域有所分化，整体维持弱稳。 据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5944.2万重箱，环比减少4.68%。供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加， 带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依旧较大。库存有所去化，但仍处高位。后续 玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，整体价格持稳，以刚需采购为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱产销存 数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱 需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：建材消费数据尚可，合金期货有所反弹 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日钢联公布了本周钢材消费情况，整体看建材消费强劲，去 ...