交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1215元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为45元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/6/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Group 1 - The short drama market is experiencing increased competition with players from multiple countries, including the US, China, and South Korea, entering the global scene [2] - China's foreign trade is showing resilience in a complex environment, with a more diverse network of partnerships, and there are discussions on how to further enhance exports [3] - The pool robot industry is shifting focus from "growth first" to "efficiency first," indicating a potential change in market dynamics as capital enthusiasm wanes [3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the IPO of JST Group Corporation Limited, allowing the company to issue up to 137,184,600 shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors being CICC and GF Securities [5] - Zhonglian International Investment (Hainan) Co., Ltd. has completed a 3 million yuan angel round financing to expand its cross-border digital cultural and e-commerce business in Southeast Asia [5] Group 3 - AfterShip has launched an all-in-one e-commerce solution, "AfterShip One," which serves over 20,000 paying e-commerce clients globally [8] - The People's Bank of China is innovating structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai, including pilot programs for cross-border trade financing [10] - Alibaba Cloud has launched multiple AI products in Europe to meet the growing demand for AI applications [7] Group 4 - SoftBank has raised approximately $4.8 billion from the sale of T-Mobile shares to fund its ambitious AI plans, including a potential investment of up to $30 billion in OpenAI [7] - Elon Musk's xAI is in talks to raise $4.3 billion through equity financing [7] - Sequoia China has open-sourced its AI benchmark testing tool, xbench, to support the development of large models and AI agents [7]

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-18 需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月二手房价格继续下行，需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购 以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差回 归有所建树，后续将继续主导交易，但是反弹高度和力度均有限。操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维 持逢高空思维。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1170 | 环比 数据指标 11 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 980 | 环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-18 每日观点 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位下滑，终端需求改善有限，库存处于同期高位，行业供需错配格局尚未有效 改善。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1159元/吨，基差为51元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内 ...

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1096 1096 1087 980 953 974 993 1032 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/17） 昨日(6/16） 一周前(6/10） 一月前(5/19） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400 500 玻璃厂库 ...

| CTECHER | 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 业分格号:F02517 | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 股指 | 地缘冲突加剧,结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | 看零 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | | 局势略有缓和,金价短期或重返震荡;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实 | 賃金 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | T 自银 | 短期料进入震荡走势。 | 農汤 | 近期市场风险偏好有所下滑,而下游需求进入淡季,铜价走高后 | | | | | | | 价格存在回调风险。 | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑,挤仓风险仍存,铝价维持偏强运 | 看多 | | | | | | | | 门。 | 氧化铝现货价格相对稳定,而期货价格偏弱运行,期货贴水明 | | | | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 显 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short position at 14,000 and monitor the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - In June, industrial silicon still faces a weak fundamental situation of oversupply, and the price remains under pressure. Recently, the rebound in coal prices brings an expectation of rising raw material prices, which supports the price, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [4]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the atmosphere at the Shanghai PV exhibition is bearish. However, due to the low price, hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the pressure level around 35,000 yuan/ton. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the excess pattern is obvious, and there will be further profit - reduction. After the photovoltaic rush - installation, the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down, and the overall demand has not increased significantly. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. - For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure in the future, and the industry needs capacity clearance. The 09 contract fluctuates around 1000 points, and a short - term bearish strategy can be considered [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 13,900 yuan/ton. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 140%. The Thai standard mixed rubber quote remained at 13,750 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 28%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.40 Thai baht/kg to 47.45 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85%. The FOB mid - price of glue in the international market remained at 56.75 yuan/ton. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 400 yuan/ton to 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan remained at 12,400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price of imported rubber raw materials in Hainan remained at 9,000 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.8%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 72 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.18%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 435,000 tons to 1.057 million tons, a decline of 29.16%. Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, a decline of 7.26%. India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, a decline of 14.34%. China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 4.12 percentage points to 77.98%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points to 61.24%. In April, the domestic tire production decreased by 5.444 million pieces to 102.002 million pieces, a decline of 5.07%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in April decreased by 490,000 pieces to 5.739 million pieces, a decline of 7.87%. The total import volume of natural rubber in April decreased by 70,900 tons to 523,200 tons, a decline of 11.93%. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in May decreased by 83,000 tons to 607,000 tons, a decline of 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) decreased by 4,100 tons to 1,011,111 tons, a decline of 0.67%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 13,003 tons to 34,876 tons, an increase of 59.45%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points to 3.34%, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points to 4.83%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao increased by 0.82 percentage points to 7.76%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 7.18% [2]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 8,150 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.83%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SI4210) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.72%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 7,600 yuan/ton, and the basis (in Xinjiang) increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1,055 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.64% [4]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 7,260 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.84%. The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.29%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 50%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 175%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.09% [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6,900 tons to 307,700 tons, an increase of 2.29%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 4,400 tons to 163,100 tons, a decline of 2.6%. Yunnan's production decreased by 3,400 tons to 10,000 tons, a decline of 25.43%. Sichuan's production increased by 12,400 tons to 23,700 tons, an increase of 109.47%. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 2,100 tons to 46,100 tons, an increase of 4.78%. Ningxia's production increased by 3,500 tons to 23,500 tons, an increase of 17.5%. The production of 97 - grade silicon decreased by 7,200 tons to 4,800 tons, a decline of 60%. The production of recycled silicon increased by 500 tons to 16,500 tons, an increase of 3.12%. The production of silicone DMC in May increased by 11,200 tons to 184,000 tons, an increase of 6.48%. The production of polysilicon in May increased by 700 tons to 96,100 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy in May decreased by 400 tons to 60,600 tons, a decline of 0.66%. The export volume of industrial silicon in April increased by 100 tons to 6,050 tons, an increase of 1.64% [4]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 410 tons to 18,670 tons, a decline of 2.15%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 70 tons to 2,580 tons, an increase of 2.79%. The inventory in Sichuan increased by 10 tons to 2,310 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 57,200 tons, a decline of 2.56%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 550 tons to 28,410 tons, a decline of 1.89%. The non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 950 tons to 28,790 tons, a decline of 3.2% [4]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained at 35,500 yuan/ton, the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained at 29,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 33,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 34.63%. The cauliflower material basis (average price) decreased by 625 yuan/ton to 7,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.01%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm remained at 1.27 yuan/piece, the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210R remained at 1.06 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal Topcon battery wafers of 210R remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of single - crystal PERC battery wafers of 182mm remained at 0.268 yuan/piece, the average price of Topcon components of 210mm (distributed) remained at 0.699 yuan/watt, and the average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained at 0.686 yuan/watt [5]. - The PS2506 contract price increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 720 yuan/ton to 1,690 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.88%. The PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 290 yuan/ton to 1,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.35%. The PS2508 - PS2509 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2509 - PS2510 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 265 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46%. The PS2510 - PS2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.46%. The PS2511 - PS2512 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 1,605 yuan/ton, a decline of 18.46% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.06 GW to 13.1 GW, an increase of 0.46%. The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 tons to 2.38 tons, an increase of 8.18%. The monthly polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The polysilicon import volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.29 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The polysilicon export volume in April decreased by 0.02 tons to 0.2 tons, a decline of 10.4%. The net export volume of polysilicon in April remained at - 0.09 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 27.5 tons, an increase of 2.23%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.68 GW to 19.34 GW, a decline of 3.4%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 2,600 tons [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - The glass price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,130 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The price in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,230 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%. The price in Central China remained at 1,070 yuan/ton. The price in South China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,290 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,077 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. The glass 2509 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.17% [6]. - The soda ash price in North China remained at 1,400 yuan/ton, the price in East China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, the price in Central China remained at 1,350 yuan/ton, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,030 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,204 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%. The soda ash 2509 contract price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,156 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%. The 05 basis increased by 8 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.26% [6]. Supply and Demand Data - The soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.9%, and the weekly production increased by 5,510 tons to 74,010 tons, an increase of 8.04%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 100 tons to 15,570 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, a decline of 1%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 1 yuan to 20 yuan, a decline of 4.76% [6]. Inventory Changes - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 weight - boxes to 6,968,500 weight - boxes, an increase of 2.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 62,000 tons to 168,630 tons, an increase of 3.82%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 32,710 tons, a decline of 5.87%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.9 days to 21 days, an increase of 15.91% [6]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%, the year - on - year growth rate of completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%, and the year

| 規格 | 市场 | 6月13日 | 6月16日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1290-1380 | 1290-1380 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1240-1520 | 1240-1490 | 0/-30 | | | 华中市场 | 1200-1340 | 1200-1340 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1020-1160 | -1020-1160 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1250-1360 | 1250-1360 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1490-1540 | 1420-1540 | -70/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1350-1440 | 1350-1440 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1300-1440 | 1300-1440 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1320-1420 | 1320-1420 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1290-1370 | 1280-1360 | -10/-10 | | | 西北市场 | 1000- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游浮法玻璃冷修高位，日熔量持续减少，对纯碱需求偏弱。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1210元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1174元/吨，基差为36元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、 ...