1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with overall supply expected to be abundant. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1193 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 yuan, showing that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, while the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans in 2025. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1222 | 1160 | - 62 | | Current Value | 1193 | 1140 | - 53 | | Change Rate | - 2.37% | - 1.72% | - 14.52% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 40 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly production of soda ash is 75.36 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 40.45 tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No detailed data provided in the given content. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market has experienced a significant decline after a previous surge, primarily due to weakening supply-demand fundamentals, soft downstream demand, and rising inventory levels [1][15]. Supply Side Pressure - Recent soda ash production has shown a notable increase, reaching 775,300 tons for the week ending January 15, up from 753,600 tons the previous week, marking a 2.88% week-on-week growth [4][17]. - The capacity utilization rate has also improved, rising from 84.39% on January 9 to 86.82%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points [4][17]. - In East China, a major production area, soda ash output is projected to reach 1,779,500 tons in Q4 2025, reflecting a 1.89% increase from Q3, indicating ample regional supply [4][17]. Demand Side Weakness - The downstream glass industry has seen a decline in soda ash demand, with daily melting volume for float glass decreasing from 151,865 tons at the end of last year to 150,745 tons [6][19]. - The glass sector is facing significant supply-demand imbalances and rising cost pressures, leading to reduced procurement willingness for soda ash, with many companies adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy [6][19]. - The supply-demand gap for dense soda ash has widened, with daily demand from float and photovoltaic glass at 47,600 tons, while daily production reached 58,800 tons, resulting in a surplus of 11,200 tons [6][19]. Inventory Levels - Inventory levels have reversed a previous downward trend, showing a clear accumulation. As of January 15, soda ash inventory stood at 1,575,000 tons, a slight increase from 1,572,700 tons on January 9 [9][22]. - The inventory of dense soda ash rose from 736,200 tons on January 9 to 738,000 tons [9][22]. - The number of available inventory days increased from 11.68 days on January 2 to 13.06 days on January 16, indicating growing inventory pressure [9][22]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the soda ash market is facing a "strong expectation versus weak reality" scenario, with supply expected to remain high and production anticipated to exceed 770,000 tons next week, maintaining an operating rate above 86% [12][25]. - Demand is constrained by the weak glass industry, with no significant improvement expected [12][25]. - The increase in inventory and decline in sales rates suggest that the weak fundamental landscape is unlikely to change soon. Current prices have fallen below 1,200 yuan per ton, with limited further downside expected [12][25].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is leading the market with the basic chemical sector showing the highest increase among 30 CITIC primary industries, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 0.99% [1][5][12] - Key stocks in the sector include rubber additives and phosphate chemicals, with notable gains from Tongcheng New Materials hitting the daily limit, and Hongda Co., Ltd. increasing by over 5% [1][6][12] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, while the other 50% covers leading stocks in phosphate, fluorine, and nitrogen sectors [3][9] Group 2 - Major lithium battery manufacturers are starting large-scale equipment bidding, with some equipment manufacturers reporting hundreds of GWh in orders, and the market expects further orders of similar scale [8][9] - It is estimated that new lithium battery production capacity will exceed 1 TWh by 2026, with most lithium equipment manufacturers expected to achieve record high new orders in 2026 [8][9] - The chemical industry is at a new starting point of supply-demand rebalancing, with policies aimed at "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" expected to help the economy recover and confirm the bottom of corporate profits [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the trends and statistics in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) industry, indicating a slight decline in production in November 2025 while showing an overall growth in cumulative production for the year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's soda ash production reached 3.24 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of soda ash in China was 36.256 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 4.7% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include Yuanxing Energy (000683), Sanyou Chemical (600409), Shandong Haohua (000822), Shuanghuan Technology (000707), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), Jinjing Technology (600586), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntu Holdings (002539), and Hebang Biotechnology (603077) [1]. Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and strategic analysis [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is average, with steel prices fluctuating. The glass - soda ash market shows cautious sentiment and is running weakly, while the double - silicon market has futures fluctuating weakly and the spot market mostly in a wait - and - see state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main contract continued its weak operation yesterday, with a decline of 2.06%. On the spot side, manufacturers' quotes stabilized, production and sales were average, and the spot - futures trading was dull [1] - Soda Ash: The main contract mainly fluctuated yesterday, closing slightly down. On the spot side, quotes fluctuated with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made replenishment based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The cold - repair of production lines continues, and there is still an expectation of production suspension before the Spring Festival, so the supply contraction pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, in the context of the traditional off - season, it is weak, and downstream enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed. The trading volume has declined, but the open interest has increased month - on - month, putting further pressure on the futures price [1] - Soda Ash: The operating rate has increased, and the inventory remains at a high level, with continuous supply pressure. The subsequent release of new production capacity needs attention. The downstream cold - repair expectation is increasing, and enterprises' willingness to make rigid - demand purchases is insufficient. The glass demand is weak, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of soda ash remains relatively loose [1] Strategy - Glass: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuating weakly [2] Double Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the black market returns to fundamentals, the trend of silicon manganese fluctuates weakly. On the spot side, the silicon manganese market is running weakly, with the price of 6517 in the northern market at 5630 - 5750 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Silicon iron futures fluctuated and consolidated. On the spot side, the silicon iron market did not change much, and the market was filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton in cash and tax - included, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff disturbance of South African manganese ore may increase the cost of manganese ore in the later stage [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced the production load. However, the slowdown in downstream purchases has led to an increase in factory inventory. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected the market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon iron, the actual impact is relatively limited [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series products still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - policy is in a window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The supply of iron ore is expected to gradually enter the off - season, and after the recovery of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory replenishment of steel mills and the rhythm of molten iron production [5] - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, attention should be paid to the short - term high - volatility risks. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations [8][9] - The positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of coal production capacity reduction have driven the upward movement of coking coal prices. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] - Industrial silicon is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [17][20] - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash market is still weak due to continuous supply pressure and weak demand [23][25] 3. Summary of Each Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.126%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57,766 tons, a net increase of 1,833 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.6915 million lots, an increase of 3,518 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,210 yuan/ton and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [1] - The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.090%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173,103 tons, with no change. The open interest of the main contract was 1.4489 million lots, an increase of 8,625 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,280 yuan/ton and 3,290 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shanghai price up 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. Rebar production increased counter - seasonally, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series products oscillated at the bottom and were sensitive to news. Attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil destocking and "dual - carbon" policies [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 821.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 9,381 lots to 662,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 1.002 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.50 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.76% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline. The shipments from Brazil decreased significantly, and those from Rio Tinto and BHP among the major mines decreased. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. The daily molten iron production was 229.5 tons, and the utilization rate of blast furnaces increased. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory replenishment and molten iron production [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 14, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) closed up 0.07% at 5,920 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5,940 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5,690 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton [7] - The manganese silicon price has been oscillating after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 6,000 yuan/ton and 6,250 yuan/ton and the support at 5,800 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price has returned to range - bound trading. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 5,850 yuan/ton and 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at 5,500 yuan/ton [7] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has led to the upward movement of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future market trends are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 14, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) oscillated and closed up 0.46% at 1,196.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanxi low - sulfur and medium - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Meng 5 refined coal all increased to varying degrees, with premiums on the futures market. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.37% at 1,738.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke decreased and remained unchanged respectively, with discounts on the futures market [11] - The coking coal price is in a rebound cycle, with resistance at around 1,260 yuan/ton and support at 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/ton. The coke price is approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks through, the resistance is at around 1,850 yuan/ton, and the support is at 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton [12] Strategy Views - The strong coking coal price was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of coal production capacity reduction. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, up 1.39% (+120). The weighted open interest decreased by 10,310 lots to 368,426 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 445 yuan/ton and 95 yuan/ton respectively [16] - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (-60). The weighted open interest decreased by 930 lots to 87,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 5,805 yuan/ton [18] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon production in December remained stable, and the supply - side improvement was limited. The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was expected to be weak. If the production cut or shutdown plan of a polysilicon leading enterprise is implemented, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon will deteriorate. The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure [17] - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustments have affected the polysilicon price. The spot price has increased, but downstream观望 sentiment is strong. If the production cut or shutdown plan is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The polysilicon futures price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main glass contract closed at 1,096 yuan/ton on Wednesday, with no change. The prices of large - size glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 134,800,000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55,518,000 boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 25,090 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 8,485 lots [22] - The main soda ash contract closed at 1,222 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 0.83% (+10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164,400 tons (+2.37%) to 1,572,700 tons, with increases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3,272 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 4,260 lots [24] Strategy Views - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual spot transactions, and it is recommended to wait and see [23] - The soda ash supply is stable, but the demand from the photovoltaic and float glass industries has decreased. The enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [25]

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic natural rubber price for full latex increased to 15,850 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai mixed rubber price reached 15,150 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons, or 1.9% [4][21] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 835,000 tons, up by 2.5% [4][21] - The market is expected to see high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices in the short term due to seasonal factors and inventory dynamics [5][22] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 90.9%, while Asia's load also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 81.2% [6][23] - The demand for PX is expected to rise as downstream PTA facilities restart, leading to a narrowing of PX inventory accumulation in January [6][23] - Despite geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, the polyester industry remains supported, although seasonal demand weakness is anticipated [6][23] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 0.1 percentage points to 78.2%, remaining at a historically low level [7][24] - New order sentiment is weak, with a decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [7][24] - PTA inventory is expected to face accumulation pressure in January due to seasonal demand decline and maintenance schedules [7][24][25] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.2%, with significant room for further improvement [10][27] - Despite rising shipping costs and potential import reductions, domestic supply remains ample, leading to significant supply pressure [10][27] - January is expected to see inventory accumulation, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure in the first half of the year [10][27] Group 5: PF Market - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels [11][28] - Demand from downstream yarn enterprises is cautious as they prepare for the holiday season, leading to a decline in purchasing [11][28] - Short-term demand weakness is expected to continue to suppress prices, although cost support remains [11][28] Group 6: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 74.8%, but remains at historically low levels [11][28] - Demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited production recovery expected in January [11][28] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices [12][29] - Recent production increased by 57,000 tons to 754,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [12][29] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels showing mixed trends [12][29] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][30] - Recent production decreased, while downstream purchasing activity has improved, leading to a reduction in inventory [13][30] - Seasonal demand weakness is anticipated, with short-term price fluctuations expected [13][30] Group 9: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda prices have seen slight declines, with high supply levels maintained [14][31] - Downstream demand remains weak, impacting market prices [14][31] Group 10: PVC Market - PVC futures declined by 10 CNY/ton to 4,878 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [15][32] - The supply side remains in an upward trend, while demand is expected to improve only slightly [15][32] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to remain volatile, with a focus on price fluctuations [15][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "sideways" for the black building materials industry [6] Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between reality and expectation, with prices mainly moving sideways. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, coal mines are resuming production in January, and Mongolian coal imports have rebounded to a high level, so there is still high supply pressure, and the futures prices are expected to move sideways. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak. As steel mills gradually resume production, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, and fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have relatively high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [2]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [3]. 3. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the pressure of upstream inventory reduction is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity removal [3]. 5. Specific Varieties Analysis - Steel: The spot market trading is average. With the end of some steel mill overhauls, iron and steel production continues to increase. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. But with the resumption of steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will move in a wide sideways range [8]. - Iron ore: The spot price is moving sideways. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals have increased. The fundamentals on both the supply and demand sides still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term [8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [9]. - Coke: The cost side of coke has strong support, and the spot price has started to rise. The demand for coke is well - supported by the resumption of steel mills, and the inventory of steel mills is steadily increasing. The supply - demand structure is expected to tighten, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [12]. - Coking coal: The supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [12]. - Glass: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply and demand are in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly [13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. The futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level in the medium term [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [17].

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber price is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 568,200 tons, an increase of 1,980 tons, or 3.62% from the previous period [4][17] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the pricing framework is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in rubber prices [5][18] Group 2: PX Market - The PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 90.9%, while the Asian industry load also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 81.2%, indicating stable supply and demand [6][19] - The demand side is supported by the restart of downstream PTA facilities, which is expected to boost PX demand [19] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain high in January, with inventory accumulation expected to narrow [19] Group 3: PTA Market - The PTA industry load increased by 0.1 percentage points to 78.2%, remaining at a low level compared to previous years [7][20] - New order sentiment is weak, and the operating rate of terminal factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is declining [20] - PTA inventory is expected to face accumulation pressure in January due to seasonal demand weakness [20] Group 4: EG Market - The domestic ethylene glycol (EG) industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.2%, indicating stable supply and demand [21] - Despite rising shipping costs and potential import reductions, domestic supply remains ample, leading to significant supply pressure [21] - January is expected to see inventory accumulation, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure in the first half of the year [21] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 57,000 tons to 754,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [24] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest inventory at 156,500 tons, down 800 tons from the previous week [24] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with short-term soda ash prices expected to fluctuate [24] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a significant decline, while spot prices remained stable [25] - Recent production has decreased, and downstream purchasing activity has improved, leading to a reduction in inventory [25] - The latest glass inventory decreased by 67,000 tons to 2,776,000 tons, indicating a seasonal demand weakness [25]