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【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】二季度弱势震荡,科技仍可能有独立行情
申万宏源研究· 2025-03-31 02:36
Group 1 - The macro background for the A-share adjustment in Q2 includes a natural decline in Chinese exports and increased tariff threats from the US, leading to amplified macroeconomic expectations and a decrease in risk appetite [1][2] - The direct reason for the short-term market adjustment is the approaching "April Decision" period, which includes the verification of annual and quarterly reports, as well as economic data from China and the implementation of US tariffs [1][2] - The adjustment pressure from the April verification period is considered limited, with expectations for domestic AI computing power to potentially show strong differentiation and growth [1][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic issues persisting into Q2 include the natural decline in Chinese exports and the potential for further US tariff threats, which may lead to a weak and volatile A-share market [2][4] - The narrative of the current technology adjustment is similar to the Nasdaq adjustment from July to October 2023, characterized by slow application realization and concerns over excessive investment in computing power [2][3] - The adjustment in domestic AI computing power is seen as a shorter phase compared to the US, as the industry is still in a stage of basic breakthroughs with insufficient application layer development [3][4] Group 3 - Defensive thinking is favored in Q2 2025, with a focus on high dividend relative returns and the strengthening of pricing power for short-term allocation funds [4][5] - The technology structural bull market is expected to continue into 2025, with investment opportunities identified in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares is highlighted, particularly in the context of insurance capital's increasing influence on high dividend assets [5]
TMT科技行业每周评议-2025-03-10
Western Securities· 2025-03-10 01:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry and recommends a strategic focus on AI software applications and related sectors [1][2][3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation driven by AI technology, highlighting the resurgence of market interest in AI themes and the potential for investment in the AI software application sector [1] - It identifies opportunities in the domestic AI computing power supply chain, particularly in cloud service providers, computing power leasing, and various hardware components [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing sustained interest, with a trend of expanding from structural components to electronic components, indicating potential for collaborative development within the electronics industry [3] - The report also notes the value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, driven by advancements in large model technology and the open-source movement [3] - The consumer electronics panel supply-demand dynamics are improving, with signs of price increases due to rising demand and supply-side adjustments [6] Summary by Sections AI Industry - Continued optimism regarding the growth potential of the AI industry, particularly in software applications and computing power supply chains [1][2] - Key companies mentioned include: 用友网络, 金蝶国际, 汉得信息, and others [1] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expanding, with electronic architecture similar to that of intelligent driving systems [3] - Relevant companies include: 峰岹科技, 思瑞浦, and others [3] Internet Sector - The report highlights the ongoing value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly for Tencent Holdings due to its diverse AI application scenarios [3] Consumer Electronics - The report suggests investment opportunities in the panel industry, with companies like TCL 科技, 彩虹股份, and 京东方 being highlighted [6]