Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents views on both the soybean and soybean meal markets. For soybean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The market is influenced by factors such as the US soybean's movement, China's soybean procurement, and South American soybean planting weather. The short - term outlook is for a weakening oscillation. For soybean A2605, it is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140, with the market affected by similar factors and also by the domestic soybean's rotation storage and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones [9][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780, and soybean A2605 between 4040 and 4140 [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high. South American soybean planting and growth weather is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price of soybean meal. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in December remained high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price of domestic soybeans [16]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From December 11th to 19th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 million tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From December 12th to 19th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable, with the spot price of soybean meal showing a slight downward trend [19]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From December 10th to 19th, the number of soybean No.1 warehouse receipts decreased from 16664 to 16673, the number of soybean No.2 warehouse receipts decreased from 7100 to 2900, and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 23830 to 24830 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 show the changes in factors such as planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal M2605 and soybean A2605, the short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - The inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [48]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in stocking demand [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the margin on the disk fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [61].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Intermediate People's Court sentenced 27 individuals involved in the smuggling of 166 tons of antimony ingots, a strategic resource restricted from export, with 96 tons successfully recovered [1] - The case highlights the attempts by foreign forces to illegally acquire China's strategic resources, reflecting the ongoing tensions in the US-China relationship [1] - Following the court ruling, the US announced a $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, prompting China to cancel a 132,000-ton order of US wheat as a countermeasure [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce approved export licenses for certain enterprises regarding rare earths, easing concerns for global supply chains, while maintaining a strict stance against smuggling [3] - In 2024, cases of rare metal smuggling in China increased by 47%, with 83% of these cases involving collusion with foreign forces [3] - The smuggling operation involved disguising antimony ingots as industrial waste and falsifying customs documents, with the seized 96 tons representing 12% of the US's annual demand for this critical metal [3] Group 3 - The US Department of Defense's arms sale to Taiwan included 64 Harpoon anti-ship missiles and 12 HIMARS rocket systems, with 87% of the equipment being offensive in nature, contradicting previous claims of providing only defensive weapons [4] - China's countermeasures have included imposing tariffs on US agricultural products in response to US tariffs, demonstrating its capability to respond effectively to actions that harm its core interests [4] - The US's agricultural exports to China have seen a 29% year-on-year decline, with major crops like soybeans, corn, and wheat hitting ten-year lows [4] Group 4 - The recovery of 96 tons of antimony and the cancellation of the wheat order symbolize a broader geopolitical struggle, with China asserting its determination to protect its sovereignty and strategic resources [5] - The ongoing strategic competition initiated by the US raises questions about its chances of success, especially as China prepares to respond decisively to any further provocations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone. The US job market is cooling, and CPI data is suspected of being distorted. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, causing the global bond market to decline. Domestically, fiscal and monetary policies remain positive, but domestic demand is weak and needs policy support [2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may "break 7" and depreciate moderately in 2026, supported by factors such as narrowing monetary policy differentials, strengthening domestic economic fundamentals, and inflows of international capital [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be volatile; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver prices are strong. In the short - term, silver should be cautiously chased due to rising price risks. In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's rate - cut rhythm, dollar index, and demand for gold by central banks should be considered [11][12]. - Copper prices may break through or return to a volatile pattern. Buying on dips is recommended [15]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - Zinc is expected to have a high - level wide - range shock in the short - term [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the market is affected by various factors. Tin prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [18][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a short - term correction but are expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance in the long - term. Buying on dips is recommended [21]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron ore prices are range - bound, with upper pressure from high supply and lower support from steel mill profits and expected iron - water recovery [26][27]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - Crude oil prices may rise due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela [34]. - LPG is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [38][39]. - MEG prices are under pressure from supply and demand and cost, and the upside is limited [41]. - Methanol is in a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - PP may have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [45]. - PE is affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [47]. - Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [50][51]. - Rubber is expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - Log prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - Propylene is expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - Oilseeds have a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - Oils are running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - Cotton prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - Sugar prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - Egg prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - Apple prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - Red date prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the State Council meeting, TikTok news, price rules, Hainan's customs - closure, Trump's policies, Fed news, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and international negotiations [1]. - The core logic is the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and the domestic economic policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose. Important news includes the US Treasury Secretary's statement and Trump's pharmaceutical agreement. The 2026 exchange rate is expected to be volatile and depreciate moderately [3][4]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index rose, but the trading volume was low. The short - term is expected to be volatile [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous week's bond market rebounded. The market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFI European line slightly declined, and futures prices were volatile at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [7][8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are strong. In the short - term, silver price risks are rising; in the long - term, multiple factors need to be considered [11][12]. - **Copper**: Prices may break through or be volatile. Buying on dips is recommended [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices have rebounded, affected by various factors [18]. - **Tin**: Prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May have a short - term correction, but long - term supply - demand is tight. Buying on dips is recommended [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are volatile, affected by cost support and demand weakness [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are range - bound, with supply pressure on the upside and demand support on the downside [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply, demand, and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices may rise due to the tense US - Venezuela situation [34]. - **LPG**: Supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - **PTA - PX**: In a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [36][38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Prices are under pressure from supply, demand, and cost, and the upside is limited [40][41]. - **Methanol**: In a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - **PP**: May have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [44][45]. - **PE**: Affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [49][51]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - **Urea**: Expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - **Log**: Prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - **Propylene**: Expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: May be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - **Oilseeds**: Near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - **Oils**: Running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - **Cotton**: Prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - **Sugar**: Prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - **Egg**: Prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - **Apple**: Prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - **Red Date**: Prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the global market enters the "Christmas mode", with stock markets in the US, Europe, and Hong Kong closed on Christmas Day. Key economic data from China, the US, and the UK will be released, and the selection of the Fed Chairman is highly anticipated. Gold and crude oil trends are in focus. Huawei and Leapmotor will hold product and anniversary press conferences respectively [7]. - The "zero - tariff" imported car policy in the Hainan Free Trade Port has been officially implemented, but it only applies to enterprises engaged in transportation and tourism in Hainan [7]. - The first L3 - level autonomous driving license in China was issued in Chongqing, marking that China may become the first country to scale - release L3 - level autonomous driving [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes innovation - driven development and the construction of a unified national market. The National Market Regulatory Administration has issued a compliance guide for the automotive industry's price behavior [8]. - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total trust asset scale of the Chinese trust industry exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third in the asset management market [8]. - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative oil and gas equivalent production in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, setting a new record [9]. - Fed's Harker tends to keep interest rates stable before spring and opposes recent rate cuts due to inflation concerns [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Coking Coal | 1,104.00 | 1,108.00 | -4.0 | -0.361% | | Coke | 1,735.50 | 1,597.50 | 138.0 | 8.638% | | Natural Rubber | 15,170.00 | 15,190.00 | -20.0 | -0.132% | | 20 - grade Rubber | 12,330.00 | 12,360.00 | -30.0 | -0.243% | | Plastic | 6,320.00 | 6,320.00 | 0 | 0% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,208.00 | 6,213.00 | -5.0 | -0.080% | | PTA | 4,980.00 | 4,882.00 | 98.0 | 2.007% | | PVC | 4,594.00 | 4,652.00 | -58.0 | -1.247% | | Asphalt | 2,940.00 | 2,909.00 | 31.0 | 1.066% | | Methanol | 2,167.00 | 2,148.00 | 19.0 | 0.885% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,746.00 | 3,738.00 | 8.0 | 0.214% | | Styrene | 6,443.00 | 6,402.00 | 41.0 | 0.640% | | Glass | 1,039.00 | 1,041.00 | -2.0 | -0.192% | | Crude Oil | 431.90 | 426.60 | 5.30 | 1.242% | | Fuel Oil | 2,415.00 | 2,390.00 | 25.0 | 1.046% | | Soda Ash | 1,174.00 | 1,176.00 | -2.0 | -0.170% | | Pulp | 5,610.00 | 5,506.00 | 104.0 | 1.889% | | LPG | 4,092.00 | 4,099.00 | -7.0 | -0.171% | | Caustic Soda | 2,164.00 | 2,164.00 | 0 | 0% | | ЬХ | 7,222.00 | 7,070.00 | 152.0 | 2.150% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Commodity | Price on 2025/12/22 (8:00) | Price on 2025/12/21 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | |---|---|---|---|---| | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,090.00 | 4,052.00 | 38.0 | 0.938% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,674.00 | 3,676.00 | -2.0 | -0.054% | | Bean Meal | 2,738.00 | 2,735.00 | 3.0 | 0.110% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,322.00 | 2,323.00 | -1.0 | -0.043% | | Egg | 7,718.00 | 7,712.00 | 6.0 | 0.078% | | Rapeseed Oil | 8,717.00 | 8,744.00 | -27.0 | -0.309% | | Palm Oil | 8,276.00 | 8,292.00 | -16.0 | -0.193% | | White Sugar | 5,109.00 | 5,088.00 | 21.0 | 0.413% | | Yellow Corn | 2,200.00 | 2,192.00 | 8.0 | 0.365% | | Corn Starch | 2,502.00 | 2,502.00 | 0 | 0% | | Cotton No.1 | 14,050.00 | 14,015.00 | 35.0 | 0.250% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,150.00 | 20,050.00 | 100.0 | 0.499% | [4] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 19, the sugar futures closed at 5088 yuan/ton, showing a weak trend. Supply pressure is the core driver. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view, paying attention to the price around the cost line. Resistance is at 5100 - 5110 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On December 19, the corn futures closed at 2192 yuan/ton, with prices oscillating at the bottom. Supply pressure is emerging, while demand is divided. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the support at 2180 yuan/ton and the resistance at 2200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures market is in a weak - reality and improving - expectation situation. There are weak rebound opportunities, and it is advisable to use the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price in Hebei was stable with a slight decline. The market is bearish, and it is recommended to hold the calendar - spread reverse arbitrage [12]. - **Cotton**: On December 19, the cotton futures closed at 14015 yuan/ton, showing a strong - oscillating trend. Supply pressure is short - term, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to build long positions at dips near the new support level of 13900 - 13950 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot market price is stable. Supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and demand support from compound fertilizer enterprises has weakened. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is stable, and the price is in a weak - stable adjustment. There is a short - term short - covering rebound [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and supply is relatively loose. Steel mills' maintenance has weakened the replenishment demand for coking coal and coke, which are expected to be in a weak - oscillating state [13]. - **Log**: The futures price is in a weak state. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions at high prices [14]. - **Pulp**: The market presents a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The price is high, and there is a risk of a high - level correction. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price is in a weak - oscillating state. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions at high prices near 3980 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and there is a short - term short - covering rebound [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamental pressure is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand drive for ferroalloys at the end of the year is weak. Prices follow the trend of the black - series market, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price has broken through the 110,000 - yuan mark. Supply may increase, but demand from the energy - storage sector is strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On December 19, the three major A - share indices rose. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility [20]. - **Stock Index**: On December 19, the three major indices closed higher. It is expected that the index will oscillate in a range at the end of the year. It is advisable to buy on dips and take profits on rallies, keeping a flexible position [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 26.75 to close at 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the May bean粕 contract fell 35 to close at 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the South China bean粕 spot price closed at 3060 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed粕 contract dropped 24 to close at 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the Guangxi rapeseed粕 spot price fell 30 to close at 2470 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.20% [3][6]. - Favorable weather conditions in South America have strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, increasing supply. The overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, heightening concerns about exports and potentially leading to a downward adjustment of export forecasts. As a result, US soybeans have been weakening, filling the gap from the sharp jump at the end of October. In China, the enthusiasm for imported soybean auctions has cooled, and combined with the decline in import costs, bean粕 prices have fallen this week [3][6]. - South American crops are expected to have a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, and export supply will increase in February. China's pace of purchasing US soybeans has slowed compared to earlier, and the overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, causing the outer - market prices to continue to decline. Last week, the imported soybean auction cooled. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction results. There is still supply in the spot market, and downstream buyers are mainly replenishing stocks on a rolling basis. However, the supply of imported soybeans will decrease in the first quarter, and with the expectation of holiday stocking, there is support for spot prices. It is expected that the main contract of Dalian bean粕 will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price dropped from 1086.25 to 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 474 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.27%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell from 491 to 476 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.05%; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market increased from - 110.17 to - 80.72 yuan per ton; the DCE bean粕 price dropped from 2770 to 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the CZCE rapeseed粕 price fell from 2347 to 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the price difference between bean粕 and rapeseed粕 decreased from 423 to 412 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of bean粕 dropped from 3080 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.65%; the South China spot price of bean粕 remained unchanged at 3060 yuan per ton; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 290 to 325 yuan per ton [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending November 27, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 110.6 million tons, down from 232.1 million tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 2183 million tons, with a sales progress of 49.1%, compared to 70.9% last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 50.9 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 301.5 million tons and an unshipped volume of 301.5 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean粕 at Illinois soybean processing plants was 311.2 dollars per short ton, down from 320.87 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.67 cents per pound, down from 50.37 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.77 dollars per bushel, down from 10.95 dollars per bushel the previous week [7]. - The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November was 216.041 million bushels, a 5.1% decrease from October and an 11.8% increase from the same period last year. As of November 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from the end of October and a 39.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 94.1%, up from 90.3% the previous week and lower than 96.8% last year. Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. As of the week ending December 17, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 67.3%, up from 58.6% the previous week and lower than 76.6% last year [8]. - The weather forecast for South American soybean - growing regions shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in the southern Brazilian soybean - growing regions will increase significantly, while precipitation in the central - western regions will be slightly lower than normal. Overall, the conditions for crop growth and development are good. Precipitation in the Argentine growing regions will be higher than the average [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, an increase of 239,600 tons from the previous week and 1.3807 million tons from the same period last year; the bean粕 inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 456,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 5.7202 million tons, a decrease of 600,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.2002 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.162 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3615 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean粕 nationwide was 121,260 tons, including 50,940 tons of spot trading and 70,320 tons of forward trading, down from 182,400 tons the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of bean粕 was 181,500 tons, down from 194,500 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean粕 in feed enterprises were 9.23 days, up from 9.13 days the previous week [9]. Industry News - The AgRural agency reported that as of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season had reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Most regions had good rainfall last week, and the weather forecast indicates more rainfall and favorable temperatures in the coming days [11]. - The Secex agency reported that Brazil exported 1.65022058 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 165,022.06 tons, a 73% increase from the average daily export volume in December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.0060892 million tons [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) showed that in October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of bean粕 and 900,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans at oil mills was 11.265 million tons, the ending inventory of bean粕 was 2.51 million tons, and the ending inventory of soybean oil was 490,000 tons [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of December 14, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.4 million tons, down from 1.5 million tons last year; soybean imports were 5.6 million tons, down from 6.5 million tons last year; bean粕 imports were 8.3 million tons, down from 9.2 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.7 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons last year [12]. - A commodity research estimated that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production would remain at 46.9 million tons, with an estimated range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the delayed sowing, decreasing soil moisture in the Pampas region, and long - term weather prospects require attention. The estimated planted area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's report of 17.6 million hectares [12]. - The Deral agency estimated that the 2025/26 soybean production in Paraná state would be 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate. If the estimate is correct, the state's soybean output will increase by 4% compared to the previous year. The agricultural department of Rio Grande do Sul state reported that the sowing rate of soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 89%, a 13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The rainfall ensured soil moisture and was beneficial to the sown crops. The sowing rate exceeded the historical average of 88% but was lower than 91% in the same period last year [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils showing a weak and volatile pattern, while other sectors maintain a volatile or slightly fluctuating market [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product options are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybeans (A2603) is 4,064, with a change of 3 and a trading volume of 2.36 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various options are analyzed, which are mainly used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean options is 0.97, and the open - interest PCR is 1.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option are determined from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean options is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option is analyzed, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean options is 10.035% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean Options**: The uncertainty of China's demand for US soybeans and the expected Brazilian harvest in early 2026 put pressure on the soybean market. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The price of soybean meal may maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern. A similar neutral call + put option selling strategy and long collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil Options**: High production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's inventory. A bear spread strategy for put options and a short - biased call + put option selling strategy are suggested, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut Options**: The peanut market shows a short - term upward and then rapid decline pattern. A spot long + put option buying + out - of - the - money call option selling strategy is recommended [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live Pig Options**: The live pig market is in a weak downward trend. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [10]. - **Egg Options**: The egg market is weak. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy is recommended [11]. - **Apple Options**: The apple market shows a warming - up and rising pattern. A long - biased call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [11]. - **Jujube Options**: The jujube market is in a weak and volatile pattern. A short wide - straddle option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar Options**: The sugar market is in a weak and bearish pattern. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [12]. - **Cotton Options**: The cotton market shows a short - term upward and then blocked pattern. A neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn Options**: The corn market shows a rebound and upward pattern. A neutral call + put option selling strategy is recommended [13].

Report Summary 1. Core Information - A private exporter reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Analysts estimated that US soybean export sales for the week ending December 4, 2025, would net increase by 80 - 200 million tons, with 80 - 200 million tons for the 2025 - 26 year and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 year. US soybean meal export sales were expected to net increase by 20 - 50 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales were expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons, all for the 2025 - 26 year with 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 year [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from December 1 - 20, 2025, were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from the 831,005 tons exported in the same period last month [1] - Indonesia launched a road test for B50 biodiesel (50% palm - oil content) two weeks ago, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [1] 2. Spot Price Information | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/15 | 3050 | 2510 | 8440 | 8530 | 9750 | | 2025/12/16 | 3050 | 2520 | 8380 | 8440 | 9540 | | 2025/12/17 | 3040 | 2500 | 8310 | 8370 | 9470 | | 2025/12/18 | 3020 | 2510 | 8270 | 8330 | 9420 | | 2025/12/19 | 3010 | 2490 | 8150 | 8250 | 9230 | [1][9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The corn spot market shows a differentiated trend this week, with port prices falling and production area prices rising. In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong, while in the long - term, there is a possibility of a phased decline [3] - The starch price is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing, and the weak spot market is driving the futures price down. In the short - term, the futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price; in the long - term, it may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - For cotton, the low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm. If the elimination accelerates, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [11] - For apples, the national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, less than last year. The spot market has a shortage of high - quality goods, and the futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] - For pigs, the spot price fell over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The improvement of long - term sentiment depends on further de - stocking in the short - term [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while some port prices declined. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [2] - **Analysis**: The short - term spot is strong, and the long - term price may decline due to potential supply pressure [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased. The import profit decreased by 107, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3000 [4] - **Analysis**: The short - term futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, and the long - term may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 35, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 154 [6] - **Analysis**: The demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price in Hubei increased by 0.06, and the basis increased by 51.00 [10] - **Analysis**: The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm, and accelerated elimination is beneficial to the second - quarter egg price [11] Apples - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained unchanged, and the national inventory decreased by 102.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 131.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 41.00 [14][15] - **Analysis**: The futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 100.00 [15] - **Analysis**: There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, and the long - term improvement depends on short - term de - stocking [15]

Group 1 - The "Ganwei" brand has been awarded the top position in the "2025 China Regional Agricultural Image Brand Influence Index TOP100," achieving a "five consecutive championships" status [1] - Five other brands, including "Jingning Apple," "Minqin Honey Melon," "Lanzhou Lily," "Qingyang Apple," and "Min County Angelica," have also made it to the top 100 list [1] - "Ganwei" is a provincial public brand meticulously developed by Gansu Province, encompassing a matrix system of 55 regional public brands and 750 enterprise trademarks [1] Group 2 - As of November this year, there are 100 authorized "Ganwei" stores nationwide [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the sales revenue of "Ganwei" agricultural products reached 29.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.76% [2] - Over 170 types of specialty agricultural products from Gansu are exported to more than 100 countries and regions, with export value achieving double-digit growth for two consecutive years [2]

Core Insights - The national exhibition industry is experiencing a robust year-end, with several key exhibitions scheduled that focus on industry frontiers and international cooperation, showcasing the sector's resilience and market potential for future growth Group 1: Upcoming Major Exhibitions - The 2025 Hainan International Health and Wellness Industry Expo will take place from December 26 to 28, focusing on innovation and cooperation in the health tourism sector under the free trade port policy [1] - The 2025 Asian Humanoid Robot Industry Development Conference and Exhibition will occur from December 26 to 28 in Shenzhen, featuring a comprehensive display of the entire industry chain's technology and products [2] - The 2025 Computing Power Internet Conference is set for December 24 to 25 in Chengdu, aiming to explore cutting-edge technologies and industry development paths [3] Group 2: Specific Themes and Objectives - The Shanghai International Tea Trade Expo will be held from December 25 to 28, emphasizing digital transformation in the tea industry with a focus on blockchain traceability and AI applications [6] - The 2025 Chengdu International Health Consumption Expo will take place from December 26 to 28, targeting comprehensive health needs across various demographics and sectors [7] - The inaugural MUSA Developer Conference by Moore Threads will be held from December 19 to 20 in Beijing, focusing on the full-function GPU ecosystem and the release of a new GPU architecture [8]