Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Multiple strong metal varieties experienced a sharp decline, with palladium and platinum hitting the limit down, and lithium carbonate also reaching the limit down [1] - NYMEX palladium dropped over 16%, platinum fell over 14%, COMEX gold decreased over 4%, and COMEX silver dropped over 7% [2] - The rapid decline in precious metals followed a period of short-term surges, attributed to technical indicator adjustments, profit-taking by investors, and increased margin requirements by exchanges [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Shanghai silver saw a peak increase of over 10%, reaching nearly 20,000 yuan/kg, with an annual increase exceeding 140% [5] - Shanghai gold reached new highs, surpassing 1,000 yuan/g, with an annual increase of over 60% [5] - The investment demand for precious metals remains strong, with global central bank gold purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is expected to grow, with projections indicating that global photovoltaic silver usage will exceed 5,200 tons by 2025 [6] - Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to 715 tons, the lowest level since July 2016, indicating tight supply [6] - Precious metals like silver and platinum have been at historically low prices, contributing to their recent price increases [6] Group 4: Energy Metals Market Overview - Lithium carbonate futures reached a peak of 130,000 yuan/ton before closing below 120,000 yuan/ton, marking a significant increase from under 60,000 yuan/ton earlier in the year [9] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, reaching 443,500 yuan/ton, with an annual increase exceeding 160% [9] - The surge in energy metal prices is driven by a rebound from historical lows and an explosion in downstream energy storage demand [9][10] Group 5: Supply Constraints in Energy Metals - New regulations on lithium mining in China are expected to tighten supply, with significant reductions in mining rights in key regions [10] - Cobalt imports have declined due to new export quota policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to low domestic inventory levels [10] Group 6: Industrial Metals Price Trends - Tungsten prices have surged dramatically, with prices increasing from 210,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 680,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 220% [15] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with Shanghai copper futures surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton [16] - The pricing logic for copper has shifted, with increasing demand driven by the transition to electric-driven energy systems [16] Group 7: Key Stocks in Precious and Energy Metals - Key stocks in precious metals include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with significant annual increases [6][8] - Energy metal stocks include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Jiangte Electric, reflecting the strong performance in the sector [10][11] - Industrial metal stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Jiangxi Copper have also shown notable price increases [17][19]

Group 1 - The CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for metal futures, including gold, silver, platinum, and lithium, effective after the market close on Monday [1] - Gold futures margin increased by 10%, silver by approximately 13.6%, and platinum by about 23%, leading to a decline in international metal futures prices [1] - The increase in margin requirements is a response to significant price increases in silver and platinum futures, which saw maximum gains exceeding 40% within a month [1] Group 2 - Since 2018, there has been an ongoing process of de-dollarization, with a structural reorganization of the global currency system accelerating [2] - The rise in prices of precious metals and copper reflects not only competition for upstream raw materials but also a growing fear regarding the diminishing role of the dollar as a stable anchor [2] - The future of the global monetary system is expected to diversify, leading to the emergence of a new monetary order, although achieving this vision will not be immediate [2]

来源：第一财经 原油反弹超2%。 *三大股指回落，道指跌超200点； *中长期美债收益率回落，2年期美债报3.46%； *特斯拉跌超3%，消息称凯茜·伍德旗下的ARK Invest基金继续减持。 摩根士丹利旗下亿创理财交易与投资主管拉金（Chris Larkin）表示："本周经济数据发布较为清淡，市 场走势的核心驱动力或将来自板块内部动能。若想让美股以强势收官，实现又一个两位数涨幅的年份， 科技板块大概率需要扛起大旗。" Haverford Trust哈弗福德信托公司董事兼投资策略主管史密斯（Hank Smith）表示："这并非科技股主导 地位终结的开端，最终会成为一次逢低买入的良机。一个重要原因在于，除特斯拉外，头部科技公司的 估值相较于其增长率和自身构筑的商业护城河而言，并不算高。" 受科技板块走弱拖累，美股在周一全线下跌。截至收盘，道指跌249.04点，跌幅0.51%，报48461.93 点，纳指跌0.50%，报23474.35点，标普500指数跌0.35%，报6905.74点。 【热门股表现】 个股方面，特斯拉跌3.2%。据报道，凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）旗下的ARK Invest基金继续减 ...

周一，贵金属市场上演惊天反转行情。白银期货价格在隔夜交易中首次突破每盎司80美元后，收盘重挫 7%逼近70美元关口，与此同时，国际金价跌超4%，连续失守4500美元、4400美元两大关口。铂系金属 也未能幸免，伦敦金属交易所LME铂金期货跌13.8%，钯金期货跌幅一度接近17%。 市场分析认为，技术指标修复、投资者获利了结，交易所政策打压等因素是引发市场调整的主要原因。 多因素引发市场巨震 在上周五大涨10%后，白银期货周一亚市早盘连续突破 80、83美元关口，然而调整随后到来。从最高 点到最低点白银价格暴跌15%，创下了自2020年8月以来的最大日内波幅 ——当时白银曾单日暴跌 16.85%。 BK asset management策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，从技术指标 看，近期特别是上周的走势让价格进一步严重偏离均线，这与市场流动性有关，短期有修复需求，只是 缺乏催化剂。同时可以看到，可能存在部分资金在某些价位实施了程序性卖出指令，引发了踩踏。 第一财经记者汇总发现，机构和投资者依然普遍看好明年的市场行情。 摩根大通预测，到2026年底，现货黄金价格将升 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance at midday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.03%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.32% [1] - Over 3,400 stocks declined across the two markets, with a total trading volume of 1.4 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical commercial sector opened low and continued to decline, down by 2.54% at midday, with notable drops including Shuyou Pingmin down by 17.07% and several other stocks like Renmin Tongtai and Dajia Weikang down over 5% [3] - The consumer sector also faced setbacks, particularly in retail and dairy, with Baida Group hitting the daily limit down and Huangshi Group experiencing significant declines [3] - The carbon fiber sector showed strong performance, rising by 3.62% at midday, with stocks like Heshun Technology and Jilin Carbon Valley hitting the daily limit up [3] - The commercial aerospace concept continued its strong trend, with Shenjian Co. achieving an 8-day consecutive limit up, and over 10 stocks including Goldwind Technology and Leike Defense also hitting the daily limit up [3] - The robotics sector remained active, with Fenglong Co. achieving a 4-day consecutive limit up, and other stocks like Wuzhou Xinchun and Mould Technology also hitting the daily limit up [3] - The precious metals sector continued to strengthen, with both silver and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit up [3] News Impact - Guangdong's average transaction price for 2026 is set at 372.14 cents per kilowatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 19.72 cents per kilowatt-hour, approaching the lower limit of the benchmark price [3] - Early trading saw net inflows into precious metals, diversified finance, and oil and petrochemicals, while there were net outflows from the electric new industry, telecommunications, and computing sectors [3] - Jiantao's laminated board issued a price increase notice, citing soaring copper prices and tight supply of glass cloth, leading to a 10% price increase across all materials effective immediately [3]

◎记者 费天元 12月29日，A股三大股指走势分化，银行、石油石化等权重板块领涨，带动沪指延续强势。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青向上海证券报记者表示，近期上期所发布风险提示并多次调整相 关合约风控参数，主要原因在于贵金属与有色金属短期大幅上涨，市场波动加剧，市场风险显著增加。 从基本面来看，短期贵金属与有色金属的影响因素并无显著变化，市场虽有"去美元化"等长线利多因素 存在，但短期且快速的上涨显然过分交易了长期的利多因素。投资者应理性参与相关品种。 人形机器人概念昨日也掀涨停潮，零部件、PEEK材料等细分方向涨幅居前，步科股份、天奇股份、模 塑科技、五洲新春等多股涨停。 消息面上，12月26日，工业和信息化部人形机器人与具身智能标准化技术委员会成立会议在北京举行。 昨日，此前处于高位的贵金属板块宽幅震荡。截至收盘，申万贵金属指数下跌1.80%，板块内个股分化 剧烈：湖南白银盘中一度涨停，收盘上涨7.22%；晓程科技大跌6.55%，山东黄金、中金黄金等跌超 2%。 商业航天板块指数日K线图 张大伟 制图 上海期货交易所白银期货价格昨日巨震，主力合约AG2602早盘一度涨超10%，最高触及19998元/千 ...

Economic Growth and AI - The AI trade is a significant driver of GDP growth in recent quarters, and this trend is expected to continue, particularly benefiting the top 10% of wage earners, which may lead to a "K-shaped" economy narrative in 2026 [2] Interest Rates and Investment Strategies - Interest rates are anticipated to decrease more rapidly than many economists predict, which will be a crucial factor for investors to monitor [3] - As interest rates decline, bond prices are expected to rise due to their inverse correlation, making bonds an attractive investment option [8][9] Bonds as a Safe Investment - Bonds, particularly Treasury-focused ETFs, offer diversification and lower risk, making them suitable for investors looking to protect their portfolios amid potential economic downturns [5][6] - Investing in a diversified portfolio of bonds can yield significant returns in a down or sideways market, especially as rates decrease [8][9]

最近白银期货价格波动剧烈，主要原因在于库存紧张和海外资金利率大幅上升。 伦敦白银在 12 月份交割月出现库存紧张问题，导致逼仓现象。而国内情况相 对较好，虽然 10-11 月份交易所库存有所下降，但 12 月份略有回升。全球范 围内，10-12 月份白银 ETF 持仓增加了约 4%，这部分持仓减少了库存流通效 率。 目前来看，白银价格涨幅居前，但整体紧缺问题并非简单的基本面供需错 位，而是全球库存区域流转不均衡加上投机推动所致。2025 年，美国关键放 产清单相关品种的加税预期也对市场产生影响。在短期内，我们认为随着交割 压力缓解，白银价格可能会有回落风险。目前比价超过 63 以上，而过去均值 为 80-85，美国加税预期对交易所库存影响可能在未来 12 个月内继续冲击市 电解铝供应约束反映的是工业体系的稀缺性，是外生因素，而铜的供应 受矿端资本开支不足影响，是内生因素。电解铝的供应问题可能更加持 久且难以解决。 空调行业"以铝代铜"趋势显著，受下游产业趋势驱动，而非短期比价 因素。技术可行性和利润提升空间推动"以铝代铜"加速发展，并有望 被消费者接受。 铜铝比价均值偏离及其背后的驱动因素是什么？ 铜铝比价均 ...

这篇主要来分析金铜齐涨背后的玄机，美元信用缩水遇上资源争夺升温，全球经济格局正悄悄改写。 2025年的全球市场，最让人意外的不是股市涨跌，而是黄金、铜这些"老物件"成了香饽饽。现货黄金一年涨了1870多美元，突破4500美元/盎司，伦铜也创 下每吨1.2万美元的新高，白银、铂金等更是翻倍上涨。 华尔街去年预测的黄金目标价，连现在的一半都不到，彻底被市场打脸。 变局的引信：美元信任的动摇 这波金铜狂潮背后，首先牵扯到的，就是美元的"江湖地位"和各国对它的信任危机。 一直以来，美元都是全球金融体系的基石，是国际贸易结算的主要货币，也是各国央行储备的首选。黄金的价格，也常常和美元走势呈现负相关，美元强， 黄金就弱。可现在，这个"铁律"似乎失灵了。美元指数不弱，黄金却依然高歌猛进，这是为什么？ | 0 | | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅▶ | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4509.530 | 0.57% | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 伦敦银现 | 71.614 | 0.23% | | SPTAGUSDOZ IDC | | | | COMEX黄金 | ...

全线下跌。 当地时间12月29日，美股三大股指全线低开，截至发稿，道指跌0.35%，标普500指数跌0.31%，纳指跌0.41%。 | 0 △ ■ 0 | 价格 专 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 48539.45 | -0.35% | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6908.30 | -0.31% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 23496.63 | -0.41% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7597.16 | -1.19% | | .HXC | | | 对于明年走势，华尔街普遍预计，美股将延续牛市行情。不过，也有极少数机构对美股未来走势持谨慎看法。 Sanctuary Wealth首席投资策略师Mary Ann Bartels预测，科技股将继续引领市场走高，直到2030年。 她预计，到2030年，标普500指 数将收于1万点至1.3万点之间。 "这就是为什么我们把2026年称为'无所畏惧之年'，因为这个市场仍然有很大的上行空间，尤其是在科技领 域。"她说。 瑞银策略师预计，人工智能 ...