Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with TMT leading the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index. The current index has stable support below but faces resistance above, and it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [2][3][4]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as economic data and capital conditions. Although the economic data in May is mixed, the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. The upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test will affect the bond market, and it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [6][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. - For various metals, copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate; zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly in the short term due to supply pressure and high inventory [18][22][25][28][30]. - For black metals, steel is affected by the Iran - Israel conflict but still has a downward trend; iron ore supply pressure will increase in the short term, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view; for coking coal and coke, although the futures have rebounded, the fundamentals are still weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies; silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [35][40][43][47][49][53]. - For agricultural products,粕类is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up; the pig price is expected to remain volatile with limited upward and downward space; corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level with insufficient upward momentum [56][59][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the A - share market opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.66%. TMT led the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3]. - **News**: The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for May, showing an increase in social consumer goods retail sales and a slowdown in fixed - asset investment. Overseas, there was a new round of military strikes between Iran and Israel [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 16, the A - share trading volume decreased by 250 billion yuan compared with the previous day, with a total turnover of 1.22 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.20%, and - 0.33% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider selling the July 5800 strike price put options to earn the premium [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market varied [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on June 16, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The short - term capital rate decreased, while the long - term capital rate remained stable [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The economic data in May is mixed, and the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test, it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital conditions [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals Gold - **Market Review**: International gold prices fell by 1.38% to close at $3384.54 per ounce, ending a three - day upward trend. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and the prices of gold and crude oil have declined [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. Silver - **Market Review**: International silver prices fluctuated slightly, closing at $36.301 per ounce, up 0.03%. The industrial attributes of silver make its trend relatively independent [10]. - **Outlook**: The improvement of trade relations and the expansion of fiscal and monetary policies in Europe have increased the optimism of the industrial manufacturing industry, which has a certain supporting effect on silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the flow of speculative funds and ETFs and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of June 16, the quotes of major shipping companies showed different price ranges [12]. - **Shipping Index**: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose by 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose by 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell by 6.79% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in May showed different trends [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market fluctuated downward, and it is expected that the price of the 06 contract will decline, driving other contracts to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 16, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved after the price decline, but they preferred to purchase after the contract change [14]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium has stagnated after rising to 10%, and there are different views on its future trend. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not had a significant impact on copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be limited, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased. It is expected to decline slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod processing enterprises showed different trends, and the terminal demand has certain resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 16, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was mainly among traders [18]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate changed little, and the production of zinc concentrate in May increased. The production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries of zinc increased, but the downstream consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes and consider shorting on rallies. The main contract is expected to find support between 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 16, the price of tin decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [22]. - **Supply**: The import volume of tin ore and tin ingots in April showed different trends, and the supply of tin ore is expected to be tight [23]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of solder in April increased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE decreased slightly, while the social inventory increased [23]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Due to the tight supply of tin ore, tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data [24]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import premium also decreased [25]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to decline slightly in June [25]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [25]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social inventory has a slight downward trend [26]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel market is affected by macro and industrial factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The main contract is expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [27]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of stainless steel remained stable, and the trading was light [28]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore is still tight, and the price of nickel iron is weak, while the price of ferrochrome is relatively stable [28]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in May decreased, and it is expected to decrease slightly in June [29]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, and futures inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 12, the price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the trading in the spot market was still relatively light [30]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June. The supply is still relatively high [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but it may face pressure in the off - season [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, and the whole - chain inventory has been increasing in recent weeks [32]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the market sentiment is still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [33]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel weakened again, and the basis showed signs of stabilizing and strengthening [35]. - **Supply**: The steel production declined from a high level, with a significant reduction in finished steel products [35]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to decline, and it is affected by factors such as tariffs and the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies on demand [35]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, with the plate inventory increasing [36]. - **Viewpoint**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has a certain impact on the steel market, but it does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly, and the 09 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated [38]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate also declined [38]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the future [39][40]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory also increased [40]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. In the short term, there is pressure on the iron ore price, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the 09 contract, with the price range expected to be between 720 - 670 yuan [40]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The coking coal futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot [43]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal production decreased slightly due to environmental inspections, and the import coal price continued to decline [43]. - **Demand**: The coking production and downstream pig iron production declined, but the demand still has certain resilience [43]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to accumulate, and the port inventory was at a historical high, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 800 - 850 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [45]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The coke futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The third - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [47]. - **Supply**: The coking production decreased due to environmental factors [47]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the downstream pig iron production continued to decline [47]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory decreased, with the coking plant, steel mill, and port inventories all showing a downward trend [47]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 1380 - 1430 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47]. Silicon Iron - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of silicon iron increased, and the 09 contract of silicon iron futures rose by 1.93% [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [48]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased slightly this week [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron from five major steel products decreased, and the non - steel demand is also weak [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [49]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of manganese silicon increased, and the 09 contract of manganese silicon futures rose by 1.97% [50]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [50]. - **Supply**: The manganese silicon production increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel products decreased [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The manganese silicon market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume also increased [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The US EPA proposed to increase the biofuel blending volume in 2026 and 2027, which affected the price of soybean oil. The soybean processing profit in Brazil decreased, and the EU's soybean import volume increased [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The current operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybean crop has a fast planting progress and a high excellent rate, which puts pressure on the price. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate,

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 17, 2025 [1] Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is $94.60, with a daily change of -$0.35 and a weekly change of -$1.50. Among Australian mainstream ores, Newman powder is priced at 709 yuan, up 1 yuan daily and down 1 yuan weekly; PB powder is 720 yuan, up 1 yuan daily and down 3 yuan weekly. Brazilian mainstream ores like Bar mix are priced at 751 yuan, up 1 yuan daily and 10 yuan weekly. Non - mainstream ores such as 61% Indian powder are at 645 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 14 yuan. The price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 901 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 13 yuan [2] - **Import Profits**: Import profits vary. For example, Newman powder has an import profit of - 28.32 yuan, while Macfayden powder has a profit of 2.01 yuan [2] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: The latest price of i2601 is 675.0, up 2.5 daily and 8.5 weekly; i2605 is 655.5, up 2.0 daily and 8.0 weekly; i2509 is 704.5, up 1.5 daily and 1.5 weekly [2] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is at 91.80, down 0.16 daily and 0.34 weekly; FE05 is 90.37, down 0.05 daily and 0.08 weekly; FE09 is 93.30, down 0.30 daily and 0.86 weekly [2] Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of i2601 is 76.7, down 2.5 daily and 6.6 weekly; i2605 is 96.2, down 2.0 daily and 6.1 weekly; i2509 is 47.2, down 1.5 daily and up 0.4 weekly [2] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between i2601 and i2605 is 29.5, and between i2605 and i2509 is 19.5, while i2509 and i2601 has a spread of - 49.0 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Middle - East situation is tense as on June 14, two refineries in Iran's southern Bushehr province were attacked by Israel, the first direct strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by Israel. The supply and demand situation shows that the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore have declined this period, while domestic port inventories have increased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and the daily average hot metal output have continued to decline, weakening the support for iron ore demand. However, the tense Middle - East situation makes the market worry that Iran's iron ore production may be affected, which supports the short - term market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 704.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the position volume is 685,492 hands, down 10,148 hands. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 37,842 hands, down 7,590 hands. The DCE warehouse receipt is 2,700 hands, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 94.2 dollars/ton, up 0.04 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 782 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 677 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 56 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 94.60 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.56, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 782 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,352.70 million tons, down 157.70 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,517.50 million tons, down 156.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 13,933.14 million tons, up 106.45 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,798.68 million tons, up 108.50 million tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of iron ore is 9,813.10 million tons, down 500.90 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 38.98 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 61.42%, up 0.23%. The inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines is 58.33 million tons, down 4.46 million tons. The BDI index is 1,968.00, up 64.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 26.26 dollars/ton, up 1.45 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.97 dollars/ton, up 1.26 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.39%, down 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.56%, down 0.07%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.96%, down 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.33%, up 1.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.51% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,352.7 million tons, down 157.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,842.1 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume of 2,059.3 million tons, down 110.6 million tons (1,797.1 million tons to China, down 94.9 million tons) and Brazil's shipment volume of 782.8 million tons, up 33.2 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,517.5 million tons, down 156.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,384.5 million tons, down 224.8 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,219.0 million tons, down 164.6 million tons [2].

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-06-16): Supply-Demand Structure Weakens, Black Market in Weak Oscillation [1] Research Team - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The supply-demand structure of steel products continues to weaken this week, and it is expected that the black market will remain in a weak operation overall. Maintain a bearish view and cash in some profits when a new low is reached [7]. - Last week, the supply of iron ore improved, demand continued to slow down, and the supply-demand pattern weakened overall. This week, it may still trade on the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off-season, and ore prices will remain in a weak operation. Maintain a shorting strategy, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar was still operating at a low level below 3000, and the market sentiment remained weak. The 10 - contract fell 6 to close at 2969. The spot price oscillated, with rebar in East China reported at 3080 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week [12]. 1.2 Supply - The output of blast furnaces decreased slightly, and electric furnaces continued to cut production. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased for five consecutive weeks. The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. Short - process steel mills still face large - scale losses, and production cuts are expected to continue. Rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.7 tons week - on - week [18][21][25]. 1.3 Demand - Building material demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic demand for plates also weakened. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased, and the actual demand for building materials decreased significantly due to the off - season and bad weather. The domestic demand for hot - rolled coils may decline faster in the consumption off - season, and the manufacturing industry faces increasing downward pressure [28][32]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of long - process steel remained at a high level, while the profit of electric furnaces continued to decline. The profit of long - process building materials was around 70 - 100, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was around 150 - 200. As of the 13th, the national average profit of short - process was - 124 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [36]. 1.5 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed of building materials was average, and the inventory of plates continued to accumulate. Rebar social and steel mill inventories decreased, while hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories increased [39][43]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar narrowed significantly. The current rebar 10 basis is 101, narrowing 54 from last week. Continue to hold reverse arbitrage positions and pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity around 80 [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread narrowed by 3 to 1, and the inverted situation was completely reversed. The near - month contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - month contract also faces trade conflict interference. The price difference is expected to fluctuate around par [52]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has no obvious driving force to continue narrowing. The current futures spread is 113, narrowing 4 from last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining the same as last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and no operation is recommended [55]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated downward, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. Last week, iron ore oscillated weakly, the 09 contract fell 4.5 to close at 703, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 13 to 720 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and the arrivals continued to increase. The global iron ore shipments in the current period were 3510.4 tons, up 79 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports increased, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past three years [63][69]. 2.3 Demand - The rigid demand decreased as blast furnace output declined, and the speculative demand also decreased as port transactions declined. The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 241.61 tons/day, down 0.19 tons/day week - on - week. The daily average port transaction volume was 94.9 tons, down 2 tons week - on - week [72][75]. 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased, and downstream inventory also increased. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 103 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills increased by 130.63 tons [78][81]. 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to China increased. The freight from Western Australia to China was 10.3 dollars/ton, remaining basically the same, while the freight from Brazil to China was 26.3 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [84]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly, and the basis also decreased. The 9 - 1 spread was 33, narrowing 3 from last week, and the 09 contract discount was 35, narrowing 6 from last week [86].

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the iron ore price is weak, but there is still some support at the bottom due to the relatively high profitability of steel enterprises. Nearly 60% of steel enterprises are still profitable, which may slow down the pace of steel production cuts [10][11]. - In the long - term, real estate investment is falling at a rate of about 10%, and infrastructure investment cannot make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the US, the uncertainty of steel exports will gradually emerge, and the high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the increasing supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "declining terminal demand - narrowing steel enterprise profits - steel enterprise production cuts - trend decline in ore prices" may appear in the second half of the year [11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1 Market Review - On June 13, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower, rebounded slightly after a small decline, and then weakened again, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on June 13. For example, the RB2510 contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with a trading volume of 2,168,544 lots and an open interest of 2,135,661 lots, a decrease of 84,364 lots [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on June 13. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions held 433,829 lots, a decrease of 17,165 lots, and the top 20 short positions held 459,805 lots, a decrease of 5,793 lots, with a deviation of - 2.55% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot market: On June 13, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were also flat [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily KDJ indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend. The K and D values continued to rise, while the J value turned down. The daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross [9]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - Short - term: The current fundamentals show that the iron - water production has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the downstream building - material demand is seasonally weak due to the rainy season. The supply has increased by more than 10% in the past four weeks compared with the previous four weeks, and overseas mines are in the end - of - quarter rush - to - volume stage. Overall, the supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is gradually falling, resulting in a weakening pattern for the ore price. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the short - term ore price is weak but has some support [10][11]. - Long - term: Real estate investment is falling at a rate of about 10%, and infrastructure investment cannot make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the US, the uncertainty of steel exports will gradually emerge, and the high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the increasing supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "declining terminal demand - narrowing steel enterprise profits - steel enterprise production cuts - trend decline in ore prices" may appear in the second half of the year [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [12]. - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Different components of social financing scale had different changes, such as an increase of 10.38 trillion yuan in RMB loans to the real economy, a decrease of 963 billion yuan in foreign - currency loans to the real economy, etc. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the number of days of iron ore inventory available for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and dredging volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free iron - water cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average iron - water production, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly production of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products at steel mills [16][18][24][27][28][35][40][45].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows that the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season have increased recently, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production. With the steel demand entering the off - season, the molten iron output is decreasing while the supply is strong [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2969 yuan/ton, a decline of 6 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.20%. The total trading volume was 8652225 lots, and the total open interest was 3086173 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a decline of 10 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 2922804 lots, and the total open interest was 1566756 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 704.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.5 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.49%. The total trading volume was 1262009 lots, and the total open interest was 716699 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 774.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.51%. The total trading volume was 6009851 lots, and the total open interest was 695773 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1349.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 158036 lots, and the total open interest was 56573 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a fluctuating trend. The molten iron output decreased slightly. The positive news from the Sino - US negotiations had limited boost to the market. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 719 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 613 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - grade PB powder and low - grade Super Special powder was 106 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season increased. The molten iron output continued to decline. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.66 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 2169.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 249.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1892.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 392.2 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 749.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 198.7 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.25 tons, a decrease of 13.81 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto Group and Baowu Resources was officially put into operation. The project can produce up to 25 million tons of iron ore per year, with a total production capacity of 130 million tons and an average iron grade of about 62% [9]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, exchanged in - depth views on economic and trade issues of concern, reached a principle consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [9]. - On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Air Force launched air strikes on dozens of targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities in Iran and named the operation "Lion's Strength". The Israeli military said that Iran had enough enriched uranium to manufacture multiple bombs within a few days, so action was needed to address this "imminent threat" [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes a series of charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects [8][10][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月16日08时20分 山金期货黑色板块日报 报告导读： 消息面上，以色列袭击伊朗，原油价格大幅拉升，带动全球商品价格回升，黑色商品也受到影响。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹 产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，表 观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 ，但价 格也有可能充分的反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价探底后回升，出现企稳信号 操作建议： 轻仓做多，如果后市期价有效跌破近期低点 ，多单可及时止损离场。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2969 | 1 | 0.03% | -6 | -0.20% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | ...

周内（6月9日至6月13日），国内大宗商品期货涨跌不一，国际地缘政治风险加剧，能源化工与黑色系 板块领涨。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.48%、原油上涨6.64%、碳酸锂下跌1.38%；黑 色系板块，焦炭周上涨0.52%、焦煤上涨1.81%、铁矿石上涨0.28%；基本金属板块，沪锡周上涨 0.51%、沪金上涨0.64%、沪铅下跌0.18%；农产品板块，生猪周上涨0.99%、棕榈油上涨3.49%；航运板 块，集运欧线周上涨2.76%。 交易行情热点 热点一：以伊冲突推高油价，警惕供应风险 随着以伊冲突持续爆发，原油价格出现大幅溢价。布伦特原油本周上涨7.58%，收73.63美元/桶；美原 油上涨7.34%，收71.53美元/桶。 从供应端来看，2024年伊朗石油产量全球占比约3.2%，若冲突影响伊朗产量，将对中国沙特等国家造 成一定供应冲击，近年来美国页岩油产量增速的提升能部分填补缺口，但远期合约价格仍将推高。 根据摩根大通首席大宗商品策略师最新发布的研报，当前油价已至少部分反映了地缘政治风险溢价—— 目前原油价格略高于70美元。这意味着市场已对"最坏情境"给出了7%的概率定价，该情境下 ...

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Iron Ore Morning Report" and was released on June 16, 2025, by the Black Team of the Research Center [1] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is 94.95, with a daily change of -0.80 and a weekly change of -0.70 [2] - Newman powder is priced at 708, down 3 for the day and 16 for the week, with a converted futures price of 756.3 and an import profit of -32.68 [2] - PB powder is at 719, down 3 daily and 10 weekly, with a converted futures price of 760.2 and an import profit of -4.70 [2] 2.2 Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian Blend is priced at 750, up 10 for the day and down 1 for the week, with a converted futures price of 759.5 and an import profit of 9.68 [2] - Brazilian Coarse IOC6 is at 692, down 3 daily and 10 weekly [2] 2.3 Non - mainstream Iron Ore - Ukrainian Concentrate is priced at 794, unchanged for the day and down 4 for the week, with a converted futures price of 859.3 [2] - 61% Indian Iron Ore Powder is at 645, down 2 daily and 20 weekly [2] 2.4 Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan Iron Concentrate is priced at 901, down 6 for the day and 13 for the week, with a converted futures price of 788.0 [2] 3. Futures Market 3.1 Dalian Commodity Exchange - The i2601 contract is priced at 672.5, up 1.5 for the day and 1.0 for the week, with a monthly spread of 30.5 and a basis of 79.2 [2] - The i2605 contract is at 653.5, up 3.0 for the day and 1.0 for the week, with a monthly spread of 19.0 and a basis of 98.2 [2] - The i2509 contract is at 703.0, down 1.0 for the day and 4.5 for the week, with a monthly spread of - 49.5 and a basis of 48.7 [2] 3.2 Singapore Exchange - The FE01 contract is priced at 91.96, down 0.42 for the day and up 0.32 for the week, with a basis of -74.1 [2] - The FE05 contract is at 90.42, down 0.36 for the day and up 0.46 for the week, with a monthly spread of 1.54 and a basis of -80.6 [2] - The FE09 contract is at 93.60, down 0.48 for the day and unchanged for the week [2]