1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are mostly positive, with some expected to be "oscillating strongly" and others "oscillating". 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic sentiment in the base metals market has eased, and the base metals have stopped falling and stabilized [2]. - In the short term, the panic has been significantly released. With the stop - falling of precious metals and active downstream buying, there are opportunities for short - term low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. - In the medium term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply - side disturbances, metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. - In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply - side issues, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to tighten, and their prices are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to consider including copper concentrates in the strategic reserve [8]. - **Logic**: The previous risk - aversion sentiment in the market has recovered, and the strategic reserve value of copper is prominent. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly [8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On January 29, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons [8]. - **Logic**: The current spot average price has declined significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price has pressure above, so it is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment has recovered, and aluminum prices have stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. On February 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: The US January interest - rate meeting was neutral, and the short - term risk appetite decreased. But the macro - outlook is expected to be positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [8][9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium term [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On February 3, ADC12 was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short and medium terms [12]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of the non - ferrous sector has stabilized, and the decline of zinc prices has slowed down. - **Analysis**: On February 3, Shanghai 0 zinc had a discount of - 5 yuan/ton to the main contract, Guangdong 0 zinc had a discount of - 35 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc had a discount of - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons [12][13]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, but the macro - outlook was volatile. The supply of zinc mines is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. The short - term export of zinc ingots will continue, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. In the long term, the supply of zinc ingots will increase, and the demand growth is limited [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The decline of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, but the warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the lead price oscillates downward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,425 - 16,525 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,475 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. On February 2, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 39,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 33,439 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,021 tons [14][15]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has increased slightly, the original - recycled spread has decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead has decreased. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened, while those for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices are oscillating upward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,606 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 tons, unchanged month - on - month. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [16][17]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. However, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the 2026 nickel ore quota, which has adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel prices have recovered, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 had a premium of 415 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [17]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively firm, and the cost of stainless steel has support. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [18]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 10 tons to 7,105 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 427 tons to 8,097 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 3,262 lots to 92,297 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin ingots was 392,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply in Wa State may improve, while the supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt. However, the short - term price may fluctuate due to the strong US dollar, stable ore supply, and weakened bullish power [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the medium to long term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be vigilant [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2,374.28, a decrease of 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,707.14, a decrease of 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2,290.30, a decrease of 0.97% [145]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 3, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.15%, a decline of 7.34% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.65% in the past month, and a decline of 0.29% since the beginning of the year [147].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-4 ⾦银价格⼤幅反弹，警惕短线震荡⻛险 万得数据显⽰，贵⾦属价格在经历两⽇⼤幅下挫后迎来拉升⾏情，这⼀⾛ 势或主要受益于急跌后的低价买盘⼊场。同时，当前市场处于关键经济数 据真空期，也在⼀定程度上推升了避险情绪，进⼀步⽀撑贵⾦属价格。据 央视新闻报道，受美国联邦政府部分"停摆"影响，美国劳⼯统计局已明 确表⽰，原定于2⽉6⽇发布的1⽉⾮农报告将推迟公布。短线来看，贵⾦ 属⼤概率维持⾼波动格局，操作上建议保持谨慎。⼀⽅⾯，1⽉2⽇公布的 美国1⽉制造业PMI升⾄近四年新⾼，或对美元短期跌幅形成制约；另⼀ ⽅⾯，芝商所、上海⻩⾦交易所、及上期所近期相继宣布调整贵⾦属期货 交易保证⾦和涨跌停板等，叠加美伊核计划紧张局势有所缓和、⽇内美印 正式达成贸易协议等消息影响，可能会限制短期上涨空间、加⼤波动⻛ 险。 黄金观点：短线进入过热后的调整阶段，大概率呈现宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内COMEX金价涨超6%、重回4950美元/盎 司，沪金涨超4%、站上1100元/克；此轮拉升主要源于黄金在连续两 日急跌后的低价买盘入场 ...

腾讯"元宝分10亿"活动2月1日0点正式开启，用户最高可领万元现金红 包，官方攻略发布 亚马逊官宣裁撤1.6万个职位 纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格当地时间3日重回每盎司5000美元。 来源：新华社 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 ...

早盘速递 2026/2/4 热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。此前，美国国会众议院投票通过联邦政府多个部门本财年剩余 时间拨款法案，从1月31日开始的联邦政府部分"停摆"僵局得以化解。 第 2 页，共 3 页 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 股市风险偏好 主要大宗商品走势 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI) CRB现货指数:综合:右轴 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价 伦敦现货白银:以美元计价：右轴 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 期货官方价:L ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 4 / 7 / 7 / 4 | | 卒」卒4日听刊 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | に | 橡胶 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 红枣 | 自糖 | 燃油 | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | 三十债 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | РУС | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 塑料 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 原油 | 玉米 | 五债 | | | | 液化石油气 | 乙二醇 | 沥青 | | | ...

Group 1 - The central government's new policy document aims to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing targeted assistance, and ensuring stable income growth for farmers [1] - The document outlines six key areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, advancing rural construction tailored to local conditions, strengthening institutional innovation, and enhancing the Party's leadership over agricultural work [1] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced a rebound influenced by two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which boosted the dollar index, and a significant short-term increase in precious metals prices, particularly silver, leading to profit-taking and increased market volatility [2][20] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, and it is expected to return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments, while silver prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the short term [21] Group 3 - The crude oil market saw a 1.78% increase, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and concerns over increased Venezuelan oil exports exacerbating supply surplus fears [3][15] - The domestic retail prices for refined oil have increased, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [10] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with significant fluctuations in the military and banking sectors, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to seasonal trends and policy support [4][12] - The financing balance decreased by 6.009 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [12] Group 5 - The international shipping index for European routes increased by 5.22%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on spot freight rates leading up to the holiday season [34]

内盘方面，沪金、沪银期货主力合约夜盘大涨。截至收盘，沪金期货主力合约上涨3.49%、沪银期货主力合约上涨 5.93%。 早上好，金银行情又"反转"了。 3日晚，纽约期金和纽约期银主力合约暴涨，伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格也大幅上涨。 截至发稿，纽约期金、纽约期银主力合约分别上涨6.83%、10.27%，伦敦金现货、伦敦银现货价格分别上涨3.57%、 2.90%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月3日，一名美国官员表示，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落了一架接近"亚伯拉 罕·林肯"号航空母舰的伊朗无人机。 据悉，一架伊朗无人机当时正飞向航母，随后被美军F-35战斗机击落。 伊朗方面一名消息人士表示，伊方一架无人机当天在公海执行常规合法侦察任务过程中失联，但已成功传回其拍摄 的图片。 就美军称当天在阿拉伯海击落一架伊朗无人机一事，这名消息人士回应说，伊方一架"目击者-129"型无人机当天在 公海执行侦察、监视、拍照等常规合法任务，并将相关图片传回指挥中心，但随后失联。他说，失联原因正在调查 中，一旦确认，将予公布。 美国总统特朗普当地时间2月3日在白宫签署政府拨款法案时表示，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续，伊朗方面有意愿采 ...

3日晚，纽约期金和纽约期银主力合约暴涨，伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格也大幅上涨。 内盘方面，沪金、沪银期货主力合约夜盘大涨。截至收盘，沪金期货主力合约上涨3.49%、沪银期货主力合约上涨5.93%。 截至发稿，纽约期金、纽约期银主力合约分别上涨6.83%、10.27%，伦敦金现货、伦敦银现货价格分别上涨3.57%、2.90%。 交易所密集出手 2月3日，上海黄金交易所连发两则通知，对黄金、白银部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。 具体来看，上海黄金交易所拟对黄金部分合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行上调：自2026年2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu （T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调整为16%； CAu99.99合约保证金每手120000元调整至每手150000元。 与此同时，上海黄金交易所对白银延期合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行下调：2026年2月3日（星期二）自收盘清算时起，Ag(T+D)合约的保证金水 平从26%调整为23%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent fluctuations in the tin market, particularly the significant drop in Shanghai tin futures, which fell by 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton, followed by a recovery of 6.64% in the night session [2] - A 6.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, a major tin producer, raising concerns about potential impacts on tin mining operations, although the effects remain uncertain [2] - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to profit-taking after reaching historical highs, concerns over AI market bubbles following disappointing earnings from tech giants, and a shift in market sentiment towards a more hawkish Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The current tin market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with increased imports of tin concentrate in recent months alleviating previous supply shortages [4] - Demand from traditional sectors like consumer electronics is weak, but long-term growth expectations from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and AI servers are providing support for tin prices [4] - The downstream operating rates are stable, and as Myanmar's tin production increases, the supply-demand situation is expected to improve, potentially putting further downward pressure on tin prices [4]