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贵金属日评-20260305
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 01:20
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, the major changes unseen in a century and Sino - US competition will continue to drive up the gold price. Short - term Middle East geopolitical risks are positive for the gold price but are more phased, and the precious metals sector has high volatility. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a bullish mindset while strictly controlling positions [4]. - After the sharp drop in late January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed strong signs of stabilizing and rebounding in February. Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. But geopolitical conflicts usually drive short - term increases in precious metals, and investors are advised to control positions and maintain a bullish mindset. Long - hedgers can take the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz significantly pushed up international oil prices and inflation expectations. The market worried that inflation pressure would make it difficult for central banks such as the Fed to implement loose monetary policies, which pushed up the US dollar exchange rate and US bond yields and triggered a US dollar liquidity risk. Overnight, there was a risk - free sell - off of global financial assets. But after Europe and the US announced the protection of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, financial market volatility eased. London gold first fell below the $5000/oz mark and then rebounded above $5150/oz [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest and change in open interest of domestic precious metal futures indexes such as the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index and Guangzhou Palladium Index are provided [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: After the sharp drop in late January, the precious metals sector rebounded in February. The ruling of the US Federal Supreme Court on February 20 and the Middle East geopolitical risks increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. The precious metals sector is expected to rise along the upward trend line, but the impact of geopolitical conflicts is short - term [6]. 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - Multiple charts are presented, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Israel and the US attacked multiple targets in Iran, and Iran retaliated by attacking US embassies in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The US closed relevant embassies and ordered non - emergency government personnel and their families to evacuate most parts of the Middle East. A UK air - force base in Cyprus was attacked, prompting European allies to strengthen regional defense [17]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: New York Fed President Williams said it was too early to judge the impact of the war on US inflation and growth. The US economy is less dependent on imported oil and can withstand energy price shocks. If inflation pressure eases as expected, the Fed will further cut interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the Iran conflict increased the uncertainty of the US economic outlook and made the Fed's interest - rate policy more difficult to predict [17]. - **IMF View**: IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz said the impact of the Middle East war on the global economy depends on its duration and the damage to the region's infrastructure and industries, especially whether the rise in energy prices is short - term or long - term [17].
沪镍期货日报-20260305
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 01:19
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the nickel market, dated March 2, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The main nickel futures contract (NI.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a volatile upward trend. The opening price was 141,550 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 141,550 yuan/ton, the lowest price dropped to 138,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 140,890 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Spot Market Basis Analysis - On March 2, 2026, the average spot price of Chinese nickel plates (Grade 1) was 141,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price of imported nickel (Grade 1) was 20,157.32 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 140,890 yuan/ton, and the spot nickel plate price was 141,760 yuan/ton. The futures price was slightly lower than the spot price, with a basis of 870 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot market was slightly stronger than the futures market [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Upstream supply: The topic of production cuts in Southeast Asia remains a focus. Indonesia's largest nickel mine has been told to cut production, which may affect global nickel supply expectations [4] - Downstream demand: The new energy battery sector is active. Solid-state batteries are regarded as having an industrialization window period from 2025 - 2027, which may boost nickel demand in the long term [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the past month, nickel prices have shown a volatile upward trend since mid - February. Today's closing price held above the integer mark, and in the short term, it may continue to rebound with fluctuations. Fundamentally, there is a multi - empty game between the expected production cuts of Indonesian nickel mines and the growth of new energy battery demand. In the future, attention should be paid to stainless steel consumption data and new energy industry chain policy trends [6]
不锈钢期货日报-20260305
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless steel market is currently in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" with a bullish sentiment on the futures market, but the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 2, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract SS2604 was 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume significantly increased to 160,089 lots, a 24.6% increase from the previous day, while the open interest continued to shrink to 67,918 lots, a 6.4% decrease from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The stainless steel spot market showed a stable and differentiated pattern on the day. The leading price of Chinese stainless steel spot was 13,631 yuan/ton. In the Wuxi market, the price range of 304 cold - rolled/2B four - foot trimmed edges was 14,520 - 15,020 yuan/ton, with some agents' quotes down 100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes slightly increased to 13,920 yuan/ton. In the Foshan market, the 304 cold - rolled quotes remained stable at 15,005 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,955 yuan/ton. Overall, spot trading was light, downstream procurement was mainly for restocking by old customers, new orders were limited, market sentiment was still cautious, and traders' quotes were mainly stable, with some regions seeing small price increases due to cost support and peak - season expectations [3]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Level**: In March, the planned production of stainless steel crude steel reached 3.6335 million tons, a significant 32.69% increase from the previous month. Among them, the planned production of the 300 series was 1.8948 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 43.24%, indicating that the production rhythm in the traditional peak season has significantly accelerated. The price of ferronickel has been continuously strengthening, with the mainstream quotes ranging from 1,080 to 1,100 yuan/nickel, and some scattered orders reaching 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/nickel, providing strong cost support for stainless steel [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the day, the K - line of the SS2604 contract closed positive, with a long body, a very short upper shadow, and an obvious lower shadow, indicating that the support at 14,100 yuan/ton was effective. In the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA formed a golden cross near the zero axis, and the red bars began to expand, with the momentum changing from weak to strong. The RSI was reported at 58.3, in a neutral - to - strong range without over - buying. The Bollinger Bands' opening slightly narrowed, and the price was above the middle track, indicating that the short - term trend was bullish but the volatility was converging, and the game between long and short positions was approaching equilibrium [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook Under the impetus of cost support, increased production, and a slight reduction in inventory, the sentiment in the stainless steel market is bullish. However, the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. The market is still in a game stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2026年3月5日)-20260305
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 01:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to be weak in the short - term and remain in a mid - term oscillation. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term and also remain in a mid - term oscillation [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillation with a weak bias; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Reference view: oscillation with a weak bias [5][6] - **Core Logic**: International soybean import cost and potential freight increase expectations support the bottom of the soybean meal price. However, the domestic spot market is weak, with sufficient supply of soybeans and soybean meal, high inventory (although it has decreased month - on - month), and weak demand from downstream feed enterprises, leading to weak spot basis. In the long - term, the high inventory, weak demand, and the replenishment of the gap by far - month soybean purchases will suppress the price [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillation with a strong bias; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a strong bias; Reference view: oscillation with a strong bias [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The oil market is oscillating at a high level due to geopolitical risk premiums and fundamental factors. International crude oil prices support the oil market. The Malaysian palm oil market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with inventory expected to fall to a four - month low in late February. In China, the near - month arrival of palm oil is concentrated, inventory has increased significantly, and demand recovery is slow due to the off - season. The palm oil market is dominated by macro - sentiment and supply - demand differences and is overall oscillating with a strong bias [7]
宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-03-05-20260305
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 01:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased due to the US - Iran military conflict. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The inflation expectation has rebounded, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle may end early, leading to a tightening of liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Under these bearish factors, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillatory [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US - Iran military conflict in the Middle East has led to a rise in geopolitical risk and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, causing continuous strength in crude oil prices. The inflation expectation has rebounded, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle may end early, leading to a tightening of liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract had limited upward momentum on Wednesday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday [7].
原油继续大涨,持续关注能化板块投资机会:申万期货早间评论-20260305
Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments released guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules, aiming for a cumulative utilization of 250,000 tons by 2027 [1] - Key technological breakthroughs are needed in areas such as surface structure disassembly, efficient separation of laminates, and component extraction [1] - By 2030, the goal is to establish a comprehensive utilization capacity for retired photovoltaic modules to handle large-scale retirements [1] Group 2 - International news highlights the escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Israel and the U.S. attacking multiple targets, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Persian Gulf [5] - The conflict has caused Iraq to cut its oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, with potential for further reductions due to storage space constraints [2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [6] Group 3 - The average operating load of domestic coal-to-methanol (CTO) and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities remains stable at 80.88%, with a slight decrease in overall methanol production load to 78.24% [3] - Coastal methanol inventory has increased to 1.3987 million tons, up 1.07 million tons from February 12, reflecting a 0.77% increase and a 35.14% year-on-year rise [3] - The upcoming National People's Congress will focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with an emphasis on core technology independence [6]
原油、燃料油、集运欧线连续三天涨停!交易所公布新措施!
券商中国· 2026-03-04 15:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the tense situation in the Middle East on domestic futures markets, particularly highlighting the surge in prices for crude oil, fuel oil, and the shipping index, which have experienced consecutive limit-up trading days due to geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping index (European line) futures main contract EC2604 closed at 1909.5 points, hitting the limit-up with a 20% increase, leading the domestic futures market [2]. - Crude oil futures main contract SC2604 closed at 641.1 yuan per barrel, with a 13.99% increase, while fuel oil futures main contract FU2605 closed at 3888 yuan per ton, with a 13.98% increase, marking a rare three-day limit-up trend for these commodities [2][3]. Group 2: Analysis of Shipping Index - The shipping index (European line) continues to show strong bullish sentiment, with the main contract EC2604 experiencing high volatility and multiple limit-up touches during the trading session [4]. - The analysis indicates that the current shipping routes are limited to bypassing the Cape of Good Hope, as plans to return to the Suez Canal have been shelved due to geopolitical tensions [4][5]. Group 3: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - The crude oil market faces complex challenges, with domestic prices rising more than international prices due to the significant impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on Asian oil supplies [5][6]. - Major international banks have raised their oil price forecasts, with predictions suggesting that if the conflict lasts over four weeks, prices could reach between 100 to 150 dollars per barrel [5][6]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced new measures to adjust the price limits and margin requirements for crude oil, fuel oil, and shipping index contracts, reflecting the heightened volatility in the market [7][10]. - Specific adjustments include a 12% price limit for various crude oil contracts and a 20% limit for the shipping index contracts, with increased margin requirements to manage trading risks [8][12].
瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260304
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 14:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract was consolidating with a reduction in positions. The macro - situation involves the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which may affect steel exports. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is stable, with a capacity utilization rate around 79%. Terminal demand has recovered after the holiday, but inventory continues to increase. With the Two Sessions held, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut blast furnace production by 30% and sintering by 30% - 50%, and some have blast furnace maintenance plans. Technically, for the HC2605 contract, the 1 - hour MACD shows DIFF and DEA running below the 0 - axis with a stable red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,212 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract holding volume is 1,435,635 lots, down 16,252 lots; the net holding of the top 20 in the HC contract is 60,441 lots, up 3,414 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 444,294 tons, up 10,596 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 141 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou is 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The HC main contract basis is 38 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 750 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.9631 million tons, up 1.5398 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 625,900 tons, up 72,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 6.7506 million tons, down 135,200 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 2.1946 million tons, up 452,400 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 87.48%, up 1.05%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 3.0961 million tons, down 2,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 79.09%, down 0.05%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in sample steel mills is 947,800 tons, up 14,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.5737 million tons, up 169,000 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 6.818 million tons, down 169,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 2.4499 million vehicles, down 846,100 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 2.3465 million vehicles, down 925,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 380,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Recently, Hebei, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, Fujian, Shanghai, Guizhou, Tianjin, and Shanxi released the list of key construction projects in 2026, including 120 projects related to the iron and steel industry. Currently, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut blast furnace production by 30% and sintering by 30% - 50%, and some have blast furnace maintenance plans with a duration of 5 - 7 days. It is expected that the blast furnace hot metal in the Tangshan market will decline in early March and recover in mid - March, with a relatively limited overall impact [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260304
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 12:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market of rebar will continue to fluctuate within a range. With the convening of the Two Sessions, some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and geopolitical tensions continue to push up oil prices, which supports commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,071.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume is 1,839,511 lots, down 42,377 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 25,724 lots, up 7,572 lots; the spread between RB5 - 10 contracts is - 29 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 22,828 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 141 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) is 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,410.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 750.00 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - free) is 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.9631 million tons, up 1.5398 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 625,900 tons, up 72,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 6.7506 million tons, down 135,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 2.1946 million tons, up 452,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 87.48%, up 1.05% [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.651 million tons, down 52,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 36.19%, down 1.16%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.3284 million tons, up 117,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 5.6776 million tons, up 727,900 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 11.46%, down 10.42%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products is 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 17.20%, down 1.30%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 2.20%, down 1.10%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 659.89 million square meters, down 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58.77 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing is 40.236 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2]. Industry News - From February 23rd to March 1st, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival, and the cumulative transaction area since this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. As of February 28th, 16 cities have issued 21 policies to relax the housing market, including Shanghai's "Seven Measures", which lower the entry threshold for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, expand the home - purchase eligibility of the population with residence permits, and moderately relax the purchase restrictions within the outer ring [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]
瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20260304
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 12:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) mostly rose on Wednesday. The deteriorating situation between the US and Iran has increased shipping operating costs. The short - term supply - demand pattern has shifted from off - season looseness to tight balance, and shipping companies' bargaining power has been strengthened. If the US - Iran situation further deteriorates and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the freight index is expected to continue rising. In the medium term, if the blockade is lifted, the freight will gradually return to the off - season fundamentals but may remain higher than the pre - blockade level due to panic and risk - aversion sentiment. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2604, the main contract, hit the daily limit, and the far - month contracts had a decline ranging from - 1% to - 15%. The closing price of the EC main contract was 318.2, and the closing price of the second - main contract was 1909.5. The price of EC2604 - EC2606 spread was +217.50, and the EC2604 - EC2608 spread was - 319.40. The EC contract basis was - 446.10. The main contract's open interest was 38618, a decrease of 5456 [1] Spot Market - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1463.40, a decrease of 110.11 points from the previous week, a 7.0% week - on - week decline. The SCFI (composite index) decreased by 81.65 week - on - week. The CCFI (composite index) increased by 43.57 week - on - week, and the CCFI (European line) increased by 43.97 week - on - week. The Panama - type freight index decreased by 23.00, and the average charter price of Cape - size ships increased by 1726.00 [1] Industry News - The Middle - East conflict continues to spread. Iran is counter - attacking after suffering intensive air strikes, and Israel has launched a "large - scale strike" on Tehran. The new supreme leader election in Iran is in its final stage. US President Trump made a series of tough statements during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz. He also announced to cut off trade with Spain and provide insurance for maritime crude oil transportation. The first press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, stating that China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, and the long - term positive trend remains unchanged [1] Key Events to Watch - France's January industrial output monthly rate on March 5 at 15:45; Eurozone's January retail sales monthly rate on March 5 at 18:00; US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 (in ten thousand people) on March 5 at 21:30 [1]