中信建投（601066）研报称，近期铜铝代表的有色，年底走势非常强劲，定价关键战略资源安全以及美 国超预期货币宽松。有色行情本质是定价全球新旧秩序更替，所以铜必将接力金银，铜的行情仍未结 束。13000美元并非本轮铜价终点，看好2026年铜价赔率。 NO.3信达证券（601059）：军工行业催化较多 信达证券研报指出，A股行情的基础依然坚实，年度上存在盈利改善和资金流入共振的可能性。战略 上，该机构认为春节前流动性环境大概率较好，市场可能继续偏强，1月可能会有一些波动。未来1年市 场短期的波动可能来自监管政策和供给放量速度。需要关注监管政策变化的情况，同时，如果股权融资 规模放量速度很快，股市供需格局再次转弱，那么市场也存在波动加大的可能。板块方面，科技板块在 春季行情中通常有明显的超额收益，行情可能围绕产业催化出现扩散。周期板块也是春季行情中的弹性 品种，政策和盈利均有预期。有色金属、储能等行业供需格局较好，价格持续上行。军工行业产业催化 较多，业绩空窗期主题活跃的阶段容易表现强。金融板块中，非银的弹性有望逐步增加。 ｜2026年1月12日星期一｜ NO.1华西证券：把握做多窗口牛市行情或将继续推进 华西证 ...

01 开年首周（1月5日至9日），卫星、半导体设备板块相关ETF涨幅一骑绝尘。中证卫星产业指数一周涨 幅近23%，跟踪该指数的卫星ETF易方达（563530）表现突出。同期，还有其他多只卫星产业类ETF涨 幅均超20%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 周涨幅 | 估算规模 (亿元) | 跟踪指数名称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 563530.SH | 卫星ETF易方达 | 22.46% | 13.57 | 卫星产业 | | 512630.SH | 卫星ETF广发 | 22.42% | 15.69 | 三星产业 | | 563230.SH | 卫星ETF | 22.19% | 33.67 | 三星产业 | | 159218.SZ | 卫星产业ETF | 22.13% | 34.20 | 卫星产业 | | 159206.SZ | 卫星ETF | 18.33% | 117.69 | 卫星通信 | | 563320.SH | 通用航空ETF | 17.72% | 2.96 | 通用航空 | | 159283.SZ | 通用航空ETF南方 | 17.69% | 2.47 | 通用航 ...

Group 1 - The satellite and semiconductor equipment sectors saw significant ETF gains in the first week of the year, with the China Securities Satellite Industry Index rising nearly 23% [1][3] - Multiple satellite industry ETFs, including E Fund's Satellite ETF (563530), outperformed with gains exceeding 20% [1][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector also performed strongly, with ETFs like E Fund's Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558) and Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590) seeing increases of over 17% [3] Group 2 - The first week of the year witnessed substantial capital inflows into various ETFs, particularly in the satellite, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductor sectors, with the E Fund's non-bank financial theme ETF leading with over 3.7 billion yuan in net inflows [1][6] - The total trading volume for ETFs tracking the China Securities A500 Index surpassed 300 billion yuan, indicating robust market activity [1][8] - The Hong Kong technology sector also attracted significant investment, with ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index collectively seeing over 5.6 billion yuan in net inflows [6][8] Group 3 - The performance of various thematic ETFs, including those in media, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, showed gains exceeding 13%, reflecting a broad recovery in market risk appetite [4][5] - The E Fund's Satellite ETF (563530) had an estimated scale of 1.357 billion yuan, while other satellite ETFs also reported substantial asset sizes [4] - The overall market sentiment is shifting positively, with expectations for continued growth in technology and core assets, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions [9]

雷志勇表示，2025年多起关键事件持续增强市场信心，DeepSeek的惊艳亮相引爆A股春季躁动，在美国 所谓的"对等关税"威胁下，市场短期迅速收复失地。此后，海外地缘政治中军工装备的实战表现超预 期，加之中美关系缓和等因素，不断推动市场情绪回暖。 投资操作上，雷志勇在2025年初配置了国产算力，受中美贸易摩擦影响，国内云厂商资本开支受限。雷 志勇指出，这一变化导致国内算力投资逻辑发生较大调整，不少此前预期的投资机会未能如期兑现，给 AI投资带来了一定挑战。不过通过积极调仓，他精准把握了2025年三季度的AI上涨行情。 针对市场热议的AI泡沫论调，雷志勇持相对乐观态度。他认为，科技浪潮中的阶段性泡沫对产业发展 具有积极意义——二级市场融资热将支持AI技术研发，行业的热潮也会吸引更多核心人才加盟以及吸 引更多学生报考。从中长期来看，当前AI行业整体仍处于从0到1的起步阶段，局部领域的过热无需过 度担忧。 凭借聚焦以AI为核心的TMT(科技、媒体和通信)板块，摩根士丹利基金投资总监、基金经理雷志勇拿下 2024年公募基金业绩冠军。时隔一年，雷志勇在2025年再度斩获85.95%的高回报。 若说2024年的业绩登顶尚 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide a specific industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Future investment strategy suggests balanced style allocation, emphasizing technology, non - banking, and consumption sectors. For stock funds, A - share market may have a spring "good start" with policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals improving. For bond funds, short - term negative factors are repaired, but mid - term structural optimization is incomplete. Money funds have no trend investment opportunities in the long - term low - interest environment [3][4]. - Last week, the A - share market continued its upward trend and had a good start, with satellite, AI application, and non - ferrous sectors performing well. The bond market declined, the US stock market reached a new high, and oil and gold prices rose due to geopolitical risks. Funds heavily invested in medical, semiconductor, and military sectors performed well [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: Continued the upward trend and had a good start during 20260105 - 20260111. Satellite, AI application, and non - ferrous sectors were strong. The satellite sector's popularity and IPO benefits drove the military sector; AI company listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange boosted the AI application sector; the US military action in Venezuela affected non - ferrous metal supply and pushed up the sector. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82% to 4120.43, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40% to 14120.15. The trading volume was 14.13 trillion yuan, with a daily average increase of about 1.56 trillion yuan compared to the previous week. Among industries, defense, media, non - ferrous, computer, and medical sectors led the increase [4][6][7]. - **Bond Market**: Declined as the strong A - share market suppressed it. The 1 - year Treasury yield dropped 5BP to 1.29%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 3BP to 1.88%. Credit spreads narrowed. The ChinaBond Aggregate Net Price Index fell 0.24%, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45% [4][8]. - **Overseas Market**: The US stock market reached a new high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.32%, the S&P 500 rising 1.57%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.88%. European and most Asian markets also rose, except for the Hang Seng Index which fell 0.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69%. Geopolitical risks from the US military action in Venezuela increased oil and gold prices [4][9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock Funds**: Rose 4.92%. Some funds heavily invested in medical, semiconductor, and military sectors performed well. Index funds related to satellite, semiconductor, and media themes did well [4][10][11]. - **Bond Funds**: Rose 0.29%. Partial - debt funds and convertible bond funds with semiconductor and computer in their equity allocation performed well. Among pure - debt funds, those mainly investing in high - grade credit bonds and medium - short - term bonds did better [4][10][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Equity QDII funds rose 2.62%, with funds mainly investing in medicine and semiconductor themes performing well. QDII bond funds rose 0.10% [4][10][12]. - **Money Funds**: Had an annualized yield of 1.58%. Different types of摊余成本法债 funds had different yields [11]. - **Gold ETF and Linked Funds**: Rose 2.85%. Commodity funds rose 2.64% [13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Stock Market**: Policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals are expected to improve, and the A - share market may have a spring "good start". Industries with good prospects are technology, non - banking, and consumption. It is recommended to have a balanced style allocation and focus on these sectors [4][14][15]. - **Bond Market**: Short - term negative factors are repaired, but mid - term structural optimization is incomplete. It is recommended to focus on interest - rate bonds with flexible durations and products that mainly invest in high - grade and highly liquid credit bonds [4][15]. - **Money Market**: There are no trend investment opportunities in the long - term low - interest environment [4][15]. - **Commodity Market**: It is advisable to appropriately allocate gold ETFs for long - term and hedging investments [15]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **QDII Quota**: Under the background of promoting inclusive finance, QDII quotas should be more used in public - offering products. Fund companies need to adjust the proportion of QDII quotas used in public - offering and private - placement products, reducing the private - placement quota ratio to within 20% by the end of 2027 and completing at least half of the adjustment by the end of 2026 [17]. - **Fund Sales Fee Regulations**: The official version of the regulations relaxes the redemption fee constraints for bond funds and fine - tunes the subscription and purchase fees. Bond ETFs may become important tools for liquidity management and trading by wealth management institutions. Wealth management funds may gradually increase their allocation to equity funds, with broad - based index funds and low - volatility "fixed - income +" products being more popular [18]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: 11 new funds were established last week, including 3 low - position ordinary FOF funds, 2 strong - equity hybrid funds, 2 stock ETFs, etc. The average subscription days were about 12 days, and the average raised share was 7.45 billion, with a total of 81.91 billion shares [19]. - **Upcoming Fund Dividends**: 99 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week. The most notable is the Chang Sheng Aerospace and Marine Equipment A, with a dividend of 2.764 yuan per 10 shares [20].

Group 1 - Global stock markets, commodities, and credit markets have shown strong performance in the first trading week of 2026, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.6% to reach a historical high and the Russell 2000 small-cap index surging 4.6% [2] - The A-share market has also performed exceptionally well, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a "16 consecutive days of gains," with a single-day trading volume reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, marking the fifth highest in history [2][5] - The commodities market has seen significant movements, with oil experiencing its largest single-day increase since October of the previous year, silver rising 10% over the week, and gold nearing historical highs [2] Group 2 - Short-term liquidity is identified as a key factor driving asset prices, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and fiscal account releases potentially bringing about approximately $600 billion in liquidity in the first quarter [3] - The market sentiment has shifted from defensive assets to cyclical stocks and high-risk varieties, supported by policies from the Trump administration [3] Group 3 - There is a noted disconnect between current optimistic sentiment and the underlying fundamentals, raising concerns about potential market volatility due to future expectation adjustments [4] - The A-share market's performance is characterized by a broad-based rally, with over 3900 stocks rising, indicating a healthier market structure compared to previous years [18] Group 4 - The significant increase in trading volume and financing balance suggests that new capital, particularly leveraged funds, is actively positioning for a new economic cycle rather than engaging in speculative behavior at market peaks [19][20] - The market is undergoing a healthy rotation of funds, with outflows concentrated in previously high-performing sectors while inflows are directed towards emerging sectors like media and home appliances [21][22] Group 5 - The current market environment is seen as a historical resonance point between "stock optimization" and "new capital entry," with domestic institutions actively reallocating assets while new capital is being attracted to the market [23] - The upcoming period is expected to maintain a favorable environment for bullish sentiment, supported by a friendly monetary environment and expectations of policy support ahead of important domestic meetings [26] Group 6 - Post-Spring Festival, the market is anticipated to transition into a highly structured value discovery process rather than a broad-based bull market, focusing on sectors that resonate with "global nominal growth" [27][28] - Key sectors include high-end manufacturing that can capture overseas capital expenditure needs, as well as traditional industries undergoing necessary adjustments that may present unexpected investment opportunities [30][32]

Market Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive factors such as stable prices and improved investment expectations, with overall liquidity remaining ample and trading activity active [3][4] - The CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, better than the previous value of 0.7%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 2.2% [15][19] - The recovery in PPI indicates price stabilization, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability and enhance market risk appetite [4][15] Industry Configuration - The military industry sector has reached a historical high in trading congestion, with the defense military trading congestion at 9.4%, the highest since 2000, and the aerospace equipment sector also hitting a record high of 2.3% [21][22] - The growth phase of the market is not yet at its end, as key indicators such as the simultaneous new highs of major growth sectors have not been met, particularly in the electric equipment, computer, and communication sectors [25][26] - The current growth style is showing signs of acceleration, but it does not fully meet the characteristics of a strong market, indicating that the growth phase may still be in its early stages [29][31] Investment Opportunities - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest mainline investment opportunity, with a focus on computing power, supporting components, and applications [34][35] - Other sectors to watch include storage and energy chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand driven by AI and geopolitical events [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is undergoing a profound paradigm shift due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of global supply chains, moving from a "just-in-time" model to a "just-in-case" inventory accumulation strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Transformation - Major economies are transitioning from a reliance on minimal commercial inventories to large-scale strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential wars, shipping disruptions, or geopolitical blockades [2]. - This shift is driven by an extreme desire for security, reshaping the supply-demand dynamics of various commodities, particularly energy and strategic metals [3][4]. Group 2: Price Volatility and Investment Opportunities - Prices of critical military metals like tungsten and cobalt have experienced significant volatility, with projected price increases of 229% and 120% respectively by 2025 [5][15]. - The new trading narrative for investors includes a focus on gold as a hedge against credit risk and a bullish outlook on metals driven by national security demands, especially as defense budgets rise significantly [6][15]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The low-trust global environment has shifted priorities from efficiency to survival, with countries now prioritizing physical ownership of commodities [9]. - The U.S. is reinforcing its energy security, with strategic actions reflecting a long-term focus on resource control to ensure absolute security [12][13]. Group 4: Gold and De-dollarization - The global de-dollarization process is fundamentally changing the pricing logic of gold, with central banks accelerating their shift from dollar reserves to gold [16]. - If the top 50 central banks increase their gold reserves by just 1%, it could potentially raise gold prices by approximately $1,000 [17]. Group 5: Market Implications - The macro narrative shift presents direct investment implications, with recommendations for investors to focus on capital market opportunities related to defense stocks and commodity ETFs [18]. - Mining stocks, particularly gold mining companies, are also positioned to benefit, as evidenced by record profits across tracked gold miners [20].

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between the net profit of YouRan Agriculture and the price of raw milk, indicating a significant correlation that impacts profitability [1][44]. - The analysis includes a detailed examination of how fluctuations in raw milk prices directly affect the financial performance of YouRan Agriculture, highlighting the importance of price stability for maintaining profit margins [1][44]. Group 2 - A deep report on Baipusais is scheduled, focusing on insights and analysis relevant to the pharmaceutical industry, which may reveal investment opportunities [2][8]. - The report will be presented by leading analysts in the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the importance of expert insights in navigating industry trends [2][8]. Group 3 - The article outlines a strategic focus on innovation within the pharmaceutical industry, projecting investment strategies leading up to 2026 [3][13]. - This strategy aims to identify key areas for growth and investment, reflecting the evolving landscape of the pharmaceutical market [3][13]. Group 4 - A comprehensive report on the military industry by Guokexun is set to provide in-depth analysis and insights, which could influence investment decisions in the defense sector [4][46]. - The report will be led by a military industry analyst, ensuring a thorough understanding of current trends and future prospects [4][46]. Group 5 - The article mentions a review and update of the industry allocation model, which is crucial for investors to understand market dynamics and make informed decisions [5][43]. - This session will provide insights into the performance of various sectors and how they align with investment strategies [5][43]. Group 6 - A report on the Sichuan-Chengyu region will be discussed, focusing on transportation and logistics, which are vital for regional economic development [6][26]. - The analysis will be presented by a transportation industry analyst, highlighting the significance of infrastructure in driving growth [6][26]. Group 7 - The article indicates a discussion on investment opportunities in the chemical industry leading up to 2026, suggesting potential areas for growth and development [7][32]. - This session will be led by prominent analysts in the chemical sector, providing valuable insights for investors [7][32]. Group 8 - An electronic industry perspective will be shared, focusing on current trends and future outlooks, which are essential for understanding market movements [8][47]. - The session will be conducted by leading analysts in the electronics field, ensuring a comprehensive overview of the industry [8][47].