1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].

2025年6月23日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1710，上调（人民币贬值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.2509，下调94点； 港元/人民币报0.91352，上调1.9点； 英镑/人民币报9.6433，下调268点； 澳元/人民币报4.6276，下调253点； 加元/人民币报5.2250，下调142点； 100日元/人民币报4.9113，下调289点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9291，上调186点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2827，下调227点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59285，下调2.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7782，下调105点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5727，下调108点。 ...

证券分析师：张冬冬 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.20）：缩量下跌 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.19）：调整>>- -2025-06-19 <<策略日报（2025.06.18）：小幅收 涨>>--2025-06-18 <<策略日报（2025.06.17）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-18 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债全线上涨，长端涨幅大于短端。我们认为股市波动 率仍在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动率的抬升更 可能是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展 望：在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需求或 使得债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场缩量下跌，创业板指跌 0.84%。市场全天成交额 1.09 万 亿，较前一日缩量 0.19 万亿，个股呈普跌态势， 1465 只个股上涨，3455 只个股下跌。 ...

面对不可预测的美国政策以及全球贸易战带来的风险，交易员纷纷避开美元，欧元随之在全球外汇期权 市场中扮演起了更重要的角色。对比美国存管信托及清算公司(DTCC)今年头五个月与2024年最后五个 月的数据，可以看到约15%-30%与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约已变成欧元。此外，还有迹象表明，欧元 正被用作避险资产（传统上由美元扮演的角色），以及用于押注大幅波动。 ...

Group 1 - The White House indicated that President Trump will make a decision within two weeks, with a significant chance of resolving issues through negotiations, leading to a calming of market sentiment [1] - Oil prices fell approximately 2%, while U.S. oil rose about 0.7%, reflecting mixed reactions in the energy sector [1][9] - European stocks saw gains, with the German stock market rising about 1% and the French market increasing by approximately 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by about 0.6%, and silver fell by approximately 1%, indicating a decline in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose over 1%, suggesting a positive trend in the cryptocurrency market despite overall market caution [2] - Analysts warn of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly if the U.S. increases its involvement in ongoing conflicts, which could lead to oil prices soaring above $130 per barrel [2] Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices experienced a limited decline of about 0.2% across the board [2][3] - The British pound saw a slight increase of about 0.2% against the dollar following the release of disappointing retail sales data [6]

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/20 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3368.90 36.31 1304.00 1057.00 - 9621.50 变化 -22.60 -0.85 37.00 12.00 - -96.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 98.78 1.15 1.35 145.46 - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1242.99 | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 13.96 | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源： ...

XAU/USD（黄金） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 黄金周三维持窄幅震荡，凌晨受美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话影响，金价短暂下探3363后反弹，日线收带上下影线阴线。美联储虽维持年内降息50基点预 期，但放缓未来降息节奏，叠加中东局势升温，多空因素交织限制波动。当前1小时级别宽幅震荡进入第3日，方向突破在即，日内建议保持谨慎。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：3423、3400 支撑位：3363、3345 策略：日内观望为主，静待区间突破后顺势操作；激进者可结合M5模型于趋势线附近短线博弈。 三色线交易策略 H1三色线维持绿色，前期3403空单已盈利100点离场。今日以M5模型为主，关注H1趋势线阻力有效性。 EUR/USD（欧美） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 欧美周三震荡收跌，日线录得十字阴线。欧元区经济数据未超预期，美联储按兵不动但维持鹰派立场，美元受避险需求支撑。欧美日内波幅70点，尾盘收于 1.146附近，短期趋势仍偏弱。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：1.152、1.156 支撑位：1.139、1.134 策略：早盘已下破，建议反弹至1.149-1.150做空，止损1.155，目标30-5 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 陆家嘴论坛主题演讲解读 以高质量金融改革，应对外部不确定性 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 6 月 18 日，2025 陆家嘴论坛正式开幕。中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽、 中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清、国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新出席论坛并作主题演讲。 解读分析：坚定不移深化金融改革开放 中国人民银行行长潘功胜提出关于上海金融中心建设的八项重磅政策，国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽 提出九项金融开放举措，中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of macro policy adjustments to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market amidst external shocks, while also promoting reforms and modernization in foreign exchange management to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Directions - The PBOC aims to create a more convenient foreign exchange policy system that enhances services for the real economy, focusing on improving cross-border trade and investment facilitation [1]. - There is a commitment to high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and high-quality capital account openness [1][2]. - The PBOC plans to strengthen macro-prudential and micro-regulatory management to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market and national economic security [2]. Group 2: Technological Integration - The PBOC intends to leverage artificial intelligence and big data to enhance the digital and intelligent level of foreign exchange management, providing smarter and more efficient services [2]. Group 3: Supportive Measures for Trade and Investment - Multiple supportive policies will be introduced to aid foreign trade enterprises, including reforms in trade foreign exchange management and facilitating new trade business models [3]. - The PBOC will promote cross-border investment and financing facilitation, including policies to attract foreign investment and support international economic cooperation [3]. - A package of innovative foreign exchange policies will be implemented in free trade pilot zones to enhance international trade settlement and expand pilot programs for qualified foreign limited partners [3][4]. Group 4: Enhancing Shanghai's Financial Competitiveness - Recent approvals for upgrading the functions of free trade accounts in Shanghai and comprehensive reform pilot programs for offshore trade finance services indicate a focus on enhancing the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The production industry should focus on policies promoting the transformation of traditional manufacturing. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and the National Development and Reform Commission has raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices [1]. - The foreign exchange market in May 2025 was stable, with a net inflow of cross - border funds of 33 billion US dollars in the non - bank sector, including high - level net inflows from goods trade and increased foreign investment in domestic stocks [2]. - In the industry overview, international oil prices have rebounded significantly, PTA prices have continued to rise, and egg prices have continued to decline. The urea operating rate is at a high level. The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are at a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased. The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [3][4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promotes the high - end, intelligent, and green transformation of traditional industries, and encourages the use of digital technologies and relevant policies [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic gasoline prices by 260 yuan/ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan/ton on June 17 [1]. Service Industry - In May 2025, the non - bank sector had a net cross - border capital inflow of 33 billion US dollars, with stable net outflows in service trade, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded significantly [3]. - Chemical: PTA prices have continued to rise [3]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have continued to decline [3]. Mid - stream - Chemical: The urea operating rate is at a high level [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low [5]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased [5]. 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and biological, and agricultural industries have declined [6].