Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is significant as it is the first complete month unaffected by the government shutdown, with expectations for stable employment figures [1][9]. Employment Data - The expected change in non-farm employment for December is around 60,000, with a previous value of 64,000, indicating a stable outlook [1][9]. - The unemployment rate for December is anticipated to be 4.5%, slightly down from the previous 4.6%, reflecting a stable labor market [1][9]. Market Expectations - The stability in employment expectations is attributed to the absence of government shutdowns in December, unlike the previous months [1][9]. - The ADP employment data, which serves as a precursor to the non-farm payroll report, showed a positive shift from a previous value of -29,000 to a current value of 41,000, suggesting a potential positive trend in the upcoming non-farm report [3][9]. Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is showing signs of a potential breakout from its current mid-term consolidation range, having started a rebound since December 24 [6][12]. - The established trading range for the dollar index is between 96.34 and 100.23, with the latest upward movement facing resistance near the 100-point mark [7][12].

1月9日，人民币兑美元中间价上调69个基点，报7.0128。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月9日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.0128元，1欧元对人民币8.1556元，100日元对人民币4.4592元，1港元对人民币0.89973元，1 英镑对人民币9.3961元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6825元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0163元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.4456元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.7537元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0426元，人民币1元对1.1441澳门 元，人民币1元对0.58002马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.4963俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3607南非兰 特，人民币1元对207.92韩元，人民币1元对0.52534阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53638沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对47.2224匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51660波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9168丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3184瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4422挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.16627土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.5678墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.499 ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4429.35, with a change of -8.65 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 75.21, with a change of -3.78 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2298.00, with a change of -64.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00, with a change of -62.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.76, with a change of 1.77 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12820.00, with a change of -300.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.86, with a change of 0.12 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of Euro against US Dollar is 1.17, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of British Pound against US Dollar is 1.34, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of US Dollar against Japanese Yen is 156.87, with a change of 0.09 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 13762.65, with a change of -101.33 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 637.65, with a change of 84.22 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1067.13, with no change [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 16215.43, with a change of 115.60 [1] - The latest value of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory is not provided, and there is no change in the gold deferred - fee payment direction and a change of 0.00 in the silver deferred - fee payment direction [1]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate continues to rise, driven by market concerns over potential Venezuelan oil returning to the market, which could intensify competition for North American oil supplies, thereby putting pressure on the Canadian dollar [1] - Despite signs of improvement in Canadian economic data, the USD remains stable ahead of key U.S. employment data, supporting a short-term strong trend for USD/CAD [1] - The core driver of the exchange rate's upward movement is the market's reassessment of the global oil supply landscape, particularly after the U.S. signaled a potential restart of Venezuelan oil imports, raising concerns about increased global oil supply and competition for Canadian oil [1] Group 2 - Canada's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has shown a significant improvement, returning to the expansion zone, indicating a notable recovery in domestic business activity [2] - The market is cautiously awaiting Canada's trade balance data to further assess the impact of external demand on the economy [2] - The overall performance of the USD remains stable, with the U.S. economy showing some resilience, although weak employment indicators are leading to a cautious market stance ahead of key data releases [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/CAD exchange rate is in a bullish trend, consistently trading above key short- and medium-term moving averages, with strong buying momentum evident [2] - The recent price action has confirmed sustained buying interest, with the RSI indicator in a strong zone, suggesting that upward potential has not yet been fully realized [2] - Key resistance and support levels are identified, with a potential breakthrough of resistance opening new upward movement, while failure to hold support could halt the short-term bullish trend [2]

Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions are easing, with Ukraine's President Zelensky expressing hope for an end to the conflict in the first half of the year, which may put pressure on gold prices [2] - The recent ADP employment data showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, below the market expectation of 47,000, indicating potential volatility in gold prices ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll data [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the significant rise in gold prices at the end of last year was driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and challenges to its independence, but warns of potential price corrections in the short term [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with prices breaking below the 20-day moving average, suggesting a likelihood of continued weakness [2] Oil Market - The oil market remains in a state of oversupply, with the U.S. continuing to source oil from Venezuela, which is expected to provide an indefinite supply of 50 million barrels [3] - Economic data from the U.S. shows a weak job market and declining inflation, which may negatively impact oil demand [3] - Political tensions are easing, with reduced risks of supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel signaling no immediate action against Iran [4] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with prices remaining below the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, suggesting continued pressure on oil prices [4] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is expected to rebound in early January due to previous market expectations of Federal Reserve easing and political interventions affecting the Fed's independence [5] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is low, with a probability of 11.6% for a 25 basis point cut and 88.4% for maintaining current rates, indicating stability in the dollar index [6] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend, with the index maintaining above the 20-day moving average and potential for upward movement if it breaks above the 62-day moving average [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of weakness, with recent trading days closing lower, indicating potential further downside risk [7] - Despite the recent downturn, the index remains above the 20-day moving average, suggesting that a bearish outlook may be premature [7] Copper Market - The copper market has experienced a decline, with recent trading days closing lower and forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downside risk [8] - The 20-day moving average continues to trend upward, suggesting that the market may be more inclined towards a correction rather than a reversal [8] Market Overview - U.S. Treasury advisor Lavorgna suggests that the Federal Reserve should continue to cut rates [9] - The United Nations reports that global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.7% by 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025 [9] - President Trump states that Venezuela's oil revenue will only be used to purchase U.S.-made products [9] Upcoming Data/Events - Key upcoming data includes the Challenger job cuts report and initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 [10]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with all falling over 1%. Nickel led the drop with a 6.14% decrease, while copper, aluminum, and lead fell over 2% with copper down 2.76%, aluminum down 2.89%, and lead down 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate rose by 2.46%, while industrial silicon fell by 4.53%. Polycrystalline silicon hit a limit down with a 9% drop, priced at 53,610 yuan/ton [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel fell by 0.98% and iron ore by 0.37%, while other varieties saw slight increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising under 1% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.48% and silver down 2.27%. Domestic gold fell by 0.73% and silver by 5.9% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 99 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.70, with recent employment data indicating a drop in job vacancies, raising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Oil Market - Both domestic oil prices increased, with U.S. oil rising by 0.46% and Brent oil by 0.48%. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, supporting oil prices [10]

Group 1: Price Performance - London platinum's latest price is 2362.00 with a change of 116.00; London palladium's latest price is 1773.00 with a change of 51.00; LME copper's latest price is 13120.50 with a change of -251.50 [3] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.74 with a change of 0.14; the latest value of euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.78 with a change of 0.11 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver's latest inventory is 13863.98 with a change of -108.05; SHFE silver's latest inventory is 553.43 with a change of -28.01 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1067.13 with no change; silver ETF's latest holding is 16099.83 with a change of -18.33 [4] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE gold's latest data is 1 with a change of -1.00; the deferred fee payment direction of SGE silver's latest data is 2 with no change [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new historical record at the end of 2025, reflecting a robust gold market supported by structural factors. Although the growth rate may slow down in 2026, the overall upward trend is clear. Gold recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979 in 2025, and Moneta Markets expects a continuation of this bull market in 2026, with a target price range of $4,500 to $4,600 [1][2]. Market Trends - The next significant trend opportunity is leaning towards bullish, with a probability of gold prices increasing by 20% to 25% towards the $5,000 mark being much higher than a drop to $3,000. A solid structural support exists at the $3,600 to $3,700 level, providing a strong bottom for gold prices [3][4]. Debt and Inflation Impact - The global debt total has reached $340 trillion, with government debt accounting for over 30%, serving as a long-term driver for gold price increases. In an environment of persistent inflation and high long-term yields, gold's role as a core asset for hedging duration risk and currency depreciation is becoming increasingly irreplaceable [3][4]. Changes in Investment Strategies - The traditional "stock-bond hedge" model's failure has led to increased demand for gold. Investors are reassessing the 60/40 asset allocation ratio, significantly enhancing gold's strategic value in investment portfolios. In 2025, global gold ETF inflows exceeded 700 tons, with notable increases in SPDR Gold Shares holdings. Despite high gold prices, the proportion of global gold ETFs in total assets remains below 3%, far below the historical peak and the recommended allocation of 5% to 10%, indicating substantial room for institutional capital to increase [2][4]. Strategic Support Levels - Moneta Markets identifies $3,000 as a new strategic support level for gold prices. Despite potential short-term disturbances from a strong rebound in the U.S. economy that may boost the dollar and suppress Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, the extent of any price pullback will be limited due to heavy debt burdens and global fiscal pressures. The status of gold as a long-term safe-haven asset will be further solidified with the evolution of global trade patterns and monetary systems [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military action against Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, has significant implications for global oil supply, the dollar's performance, and the potential risks associated with safe-haven assets [1]. Oil Market - Venezuela possesses some of the largest oil reserves globally, but long-term sanctions and insufficient investment have limited its production and export capacity [3]. - The military action and shipping disruptions have heightened market concerns over supply uncertainty, leading to a temporary increase in oil prices [5]. - The price increase primarily reflects a risk premium rather than a change in demand, with short-term volatility expected in the heavy crude oil market due to Venezuela's unique supply characteristics [5]. - In the medium to long term, if stability returns and international capital re-enters to repair oil fields and port facilities, Venezuela's production and exports could recover, potentially increasing global supply and exerting downward pressure on oil prices [5]. Dollar Performance - In the short term, the dollar may strengthen due to increased market demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [7]. - Investors typically allocate funds to highly liquid and creditworthy assets, such as the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, during such events [7]. - However, the long-term drivers of the dollar's value remain tied to U.S. inflation levels, employment conditions, and monetary policy, with regional events unlikely to fundamentally alter the dollar's core status [7]. Gold Market - The impact on gold is more indirect; while it may receive some short-term support due to its safe-haven attributes, its price is also influenced by interest rate expectations, dollar performance, and asset allocation [9]. - The direct influence of military conflicts on gold prices is limited, with its performance more closely related to actual interest rates, dollar trends, and risk management needs in investment portfolios [9]. - Understanding gold's role in different market environments through systematic learning is more beneficial than reacting impulsively to news [9]. Summary - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to create short-term volatility in oil and gold markets while providing temporary support for the dollar, but these effects are largely driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [9].

周二亚洲交易时段，英镑/美元货币对呈现小幅走低态势，部分回吐前一交易日的上涨成果。 此前该货币对曾强势上行至1.3545-1.3550区间，创下2025年9月以来的阶段性高点。 最新公布的经济数据显示，英国零售协会周二发布报告指出，12月整体商店价格同比上涨0.7%，其中食品通胀表现尤为值得关注， 从11月的3.0%攀升至3.3%。这一通胀数据的变化，可能会促使市场重新评估英国央行的政策宽松预期，进而对英镑形成支撑，短期 内英镑/美元的空头力量或需保持谨慎态度。 对于后续市场走势而言，即将公布的经济数据将成为关键驱动力。 目前市场参与者正等待英国和美国最终服务业PMI数据的出炉，期望从中获取新的交易指引。不过需要注意的是，当前市场焦点仍 高度集中于周五即将公布的美国非农就业报告（NFP），在此之前，短期市场大概率将维持相对平淡的运行格局，波动空间或较为 有限。 除非农就业报告外，本月初即将公布的其他多项美国核心宏观经济数据，也将为市场判断美联储降息路径提供重要参考。这些数据 的表现将直接影响市场对美元的需求变化，进而推动英镑/美元汇率的短期走势。 数据显示，标普全球美国制造业PMI维持在51.8的水平，这一数 ...