Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange situation in China has shown resilience amidst complex external challenges, with positive trends in foreign investment and a stable currency exchange rate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in equity reached $31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3]. - Net inflows of foreign securities investment were approximately $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend observed in the second half of the previous year [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, marking a turnaround from the net reduction seen over the past two years [4]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [2]. - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated [2][6]. Group 3: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has shown steady growth, maintaining a reasonable balance, while the non-reserve financial account has recorded a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3][6]. - In the first half of the year, net inflows of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend from the second half of the previous year [3]. Group 4: Foreign Asset Allocation - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with holdings exceeding $600 billion, reflecting a historically high level [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is currently between 3% and 4%, indicating potential for stable and sustainable growth in foreign asset allocation [4]. Group 5: Policy Environment and Market Resilience - The financial market's high-quality development has created a favorable policy environment for foreign investment in China [5]. - The Chinese economy's robust fundamentals and ongoing high-level opening-up policies are expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [6][7]. - The RMB's market-oriented formation mechanism has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external pressures and maintain supply-demand balance [7].

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

人民币汇率波动：解读2025年8月6日市场走势及换汇策略 2025年8月6日，美元兑人民币中间价报7.1366，较前一交易日小幅上涨，显示人民币略微走强。在岸市场汇率在7.1783附近小幅波动，离岸市场则徘徊在 7.1788左右，两市场汇差微小，反映出市场对人民币预期相对稳定。那么，这对于普通老百姓意味着什么？我们该如何解读这一汇率走势，并制定相应的换 汇策略呢？ 您的换汇策略该如何制定？ 是否现在适合换汇，取决于您的具体需求和资金用途： 短期换汇需求 (一至两个月内): 鉴于当前汇率相对稳定，建议分批换汇，无需盲目等待汇率最低点。 近期人民币汇率波动区间收窄，与以往剧烈波动形成鲜明对比。这背后蕴藏着多重信号： 市场信心增强: 汇率稳定反映了市场对中国经济未来发展抱有较强信心，机构和投资者保持理性预期。 跨境资金流动平稳: 外资进出相对平衡，未出现大规模资金涌入或流出，金融市场情绪趋于稳定。 有效宏观调控: 央行通过适时干预，引导汇率运行在合理区间，维护金融市场稳定。 汇率的平稳波动也为个人换汇提供了更稳定的环境，降低了因汇率剧烈 波动而蒙受损失的风险。 汇率波动对不同群体的差异化影响： 人民币升值并非绝对利 ...

美元指数小幅回落，欧元兑美元保持稳定，日元因日本央行对贸易摩擦缓解持开放态度而小幅走强。瑞士法郎表现稳健，瑞士正积极与美国谈判， 避免可能达到39%的高额进口关税，努力维护出口导向的经济稳定。 近期，美日双方就汽车关税达成了降低协议，美国将把日本汽车进口关税从此前的27.5%降至15%。Moneta外汇关注到，日本高级谈判代表计划亲 赴美国，敦促加快落实这一关税协议，推动相关行政命令尽快签署生效。这一举措不仅有助于缓解两国贸易紧张局势，也为汽车产业链带来更明确 的预期。 关税调整涉及汽车及汽车零部件，旨在消除此前"叠加征税"问题，确保已征收高于15%关税的商品免受额外负担。Moneta外汇表示，此举反映出双 方在贸易细节上的积极协调，期望通过稳定的政策环境促进双边贸易增长。 与此同时，美元走势受到多重因素影响呈现波动。美国最新发布的就业数据暴露劳动力市场疲软，迅速推动市场对美联储9月份降息的预期大幅上 升。目前市场预估美联储降息的概率接近95%，较一周前的63%显著提升。多位美联储官员也表达了对降息的支持，认为当前通胀压力减缓，经济 需要货币政策支持。 Moneta外汇认为，当前全球贸易环境仍充满不确定性，关 ...

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

周一（8月4日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元上涨，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:25分，澳元/美元 报价0.6481，上涨0.19%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6468。澳大利亚最新经济数据显示出令人鼓舞 的内需韧性，7月零售销售数据超预期增长，为澳元提供了坚实支撑。 从当前澳元兑美元日线图来看，汇价在触及阶段高点0.6624后出现明显调整，短线回调动能增强。RSI 指标当前报49.5615，接近中性区，暗示汇价尚未形成超买或超卖信号；短期若RSI跌破45，则需警惕下 行风险进一步释放。 与此同时，通胀压力的持续回落为澳洲联储提供了更大的货币政策灵活性，而稳健的就业市场则进一步 巩固了经济基本面。尽管短期内美元指数的强势反弹对澳元构成压制，但分析人士指出，澳洲经济展现 出的这些结构性优势将在市场波动平息后重新主导汇率走势。多数机构认为，随着美联储加息周期接近 尾声，而澳洲经济保持相对稳健，澳元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月获得持续上行动能。市场参与者正 密切关注即将公布的澳洲商业信心指数和就业数据，这些关键指标将进一步验证经济复苏的可持续性， 并为澳元走势提供新的指引。 ...

在亚市早盘交易中，美元指数走弱，原因是市场对美联储降息的预期不断上升，这降低了美国固定收益 资产的吸引力。美元指数下跌 0.3%，至 98.842。NAB 的雷·阿特里尔在一篇评论中表示，美元受到了一 系列因素的影响，包括美国非农就业报告表现不佳。美联储联邦基金 期货市场显示，美联储在 9 月降 息 25 个基点的可能性从非农就业报告公布前的约 40%提高到了 88%。外汇研究部门的负责人阿特里尔 还指出，美联储理事库格勒的辞职增加了美联储董事会更早采取行动降低利率的可能性。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report continues the previous analytical framework of "USD - mid - price - spot price" to judge the direction and rhythm of the USD/CNY exchange rate. With the "steep cooling" of the non - farm payrolls data, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY will have increased volatility and a slowdown in appreciation expectations. Whether the 7.20 level is "effectively broken" depends on the policy signals from the mid - price. Currently, the mid - price of USD/CNY shows a clear "stabilizing" orientation. In the context of sufficient policy tools and reduced external pressure, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD in the short term, with a short - term trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [1][14]. - The report is cautious about the view that the US economy can withstand the impact of tariffs. The seemingly strong US economic data are just short - term fluctuations, and problems such as slow domestic demand growth, persistent inflation pressure, and weak investment activities remain unsolved. The July non - farm payrolls report indicates that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability and transparency of official employment data are declining [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of 16:30 on August 1, the US Dollar Index continued to appreciate compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, Japanese Yen, Euro, and British Pound all remained under pressure against the US Dollar [3]. - Market quotes for various exchange rates are provided, including the USD/CNY mid - price, spot rates, and cross - exchange rates. For example, the USD/CNY mid - price increased by 0.108%, the USD/CNY spot rate rose by 0.596%, and the USD/CNH spot rate increased by 0.736% [4]. 3.2 USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate Weekly Review - Last week, the US Dollar Index continued to rebound, supported by the market's selling pressure on the Euro due to the agreement between the US and Europe and overall positive economic data. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate also rose steadily. However, the weak non - farm payrolls data on Friday caused a significant drop in the US Dollar Index [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The report is skeptical about the view that the US economy can resist tariff impacts. The seemingly good economic data are short - term fluctuations, and underlying problems in the US economy persist. The July non - farm payrolls report is a key evidence. It shows that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability of official employment data is decreasing [10][12][13]. - The report continues the previous analytical framework. With the poor non - farm payrolls data, the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will increase, and the appreciation expectation will slow down. The 7.20 level's "effective breakthrough" depends on the mid - price policy signals. In the short term, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD, with a trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [14]. 3.4 RMB Market Observation 3.4.1 Policy Tools Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the mid - price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1496, depreciating 77 basis points from the previous Friday [16]. 3.4.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In June 2025, banks settled 14900 billion RMB and sold 13083 billion RMB. From January to June 2025, cumulative settlements were 82135 billion RMB, and cumulative sales were 83950 billion RMB. In US dollars, June settlements were 2077 billion, and sales were 1823 billion. From January to June, cumulative settlements were 11432 billion, and cumulative sales were 11685 billion. Bank - customer foreign - related income and payments data are also provided [18]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between the off - shore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight increase in overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB against the USD [24]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH was 7.0269, up from the previous Friday. Most risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed a slight increase in the market's depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [26]. 3.4.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [30][31]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [33][35]. 3.5 Key Data and Events 3.5.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. The national childcare subsidy system was announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year. In June 2025, China had a trade surplus of 701 billion US dollars in goods and services. In 2024, the "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7%. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3% [39][40]. - **US**: The US Treasury increased the borrowing estimate to 1 trillion US dollars this quarter. The June goods trade deficit narrowed by 10.8%. The second - quarter GDP grew by 3% annually. The July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The US will resume "reciprocal tariffs" [41][42]. - **UK**: No key events were reported. - **Eurozone**: Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement was determined, details remained to be negotiated. The second - quarter GDP grew by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter and 1.4% year - on - year. Germany and Italy's economies contracted in the second quarter [43]. - **Japan**: No key events were reported. - **Other**: Australia's second - quarter CPI rose by 2.1% year - on - year. The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 2.75% [44][45]. 3.5.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Statements - **People's Bank of China**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange monitoring and management [45][46]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Trump made a series of tariff - related announcements. Fed理事Kugler will leave office early. New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [48][50]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the 2025 core CPI forecast [51]. - **European Central Bank**: ECB hawkish official Kazimir said the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [52]. - **Bank of England**: No statements were reported. - **Other**: The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes showed that most members considered further interest - rate cuts, and the bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% [54]. 3.5.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - A list of key data and events for this week is provided, including US Treasury bill auction rates, Eurozone PPI, US trade data, and China's CPI and PPI [55]. 3.6 International Related Quotes 3.6.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Quotes - Charts of exchange rates such as the US Dollar Index, Euro/USD, USD/KRW, and others are provided [58][60]. 3.6.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts of assets including the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Brent crude oil, London gold, and others are provided [80][81][83]. 3.6.3 Liquidity - Charts of central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are provided [90][91][92]. 3.6.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts of Sino - US interest rate spreads at different tenors, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields are provided [94][95]. 3.6.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - A chart of the three major RMB exchange rate indices is provided [97].

Core Insights - China's cross-border travel revenue increased by 42% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The service trade revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with cross-border travel being a significant contributor [1] - The service trade deficit decreased by 14% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing gap between service trade income and expenditure [1] Economic Performance - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations [1] - The current account has been stable, with an increase in the international competitiveness of productive service trades such as computer information services and business services [1] - The overall balance of international payments is expected to remain stable due to ongoing economic structural optimization and financial market opening [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].