Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation and accumulation of momentum. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and the bullish view is treated as a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Considering the possible improvement of China - Canada relations, caution is needed when chasing long positions [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. It is expected to maintain a bullish trend this week, but short - selling opportunities after the rebound should be noted due to the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle [1]. - **Cotton**: Weak operation. It is expected to fluctuate weakly below 70 cents in the international market, and the upward driving force of domestic cotton prices is weak in the near future [1]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term weakening. The market is expected to be weak this week, and attention should be paid to weather - related premium disturbances [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating at the bottom. The strategy is to sell high and short, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. There is sufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and the rainfall outlook for June is normal according to CPC [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and there is a need for replenishment. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 30, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 5.8288 million tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.11% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 1.55% to 2929.14 yuan/ton. There were changes in various spreads such as basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply Situation**: Currently, oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have no pressure, but commercial rapeseed meal inventories are high, which is bearish for the July contract. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada. However, the possible improvement of China - Canada relations may affect the supply situation [1][4]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.03% to 2557 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 0.36% to 2616.32 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 30, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 364,000 tons, a 7.47% increase from last week. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May. India also lowered the import tariff on edible oils starting from May 30 [9][10]. - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The futures price of the main contract increased by 1.69% to 8196 yuan/ton, and the national average price increased by 2.00% to 8690 yuan/ton. The proportion of market participants looking up increased, while the proportions of those looking flat and down decreased [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of June 1, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas were affected by drought. The new - crop good - quality rate was 49%. The 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and the new - season production is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased for four consecutive times, and the domestic textile industry is in the off - season with limited order rebounds [13]. - **Price and Related Data**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 0.11% to 13260 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.15% to 14558 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - term spreads, and other data [11]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The main contract decreased by 0.23% to 8625 yuan/ton. The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal, and the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 85 tons this week, still higher than the same period last year [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: The market supply in the sales area is continuous, and merchants mainly replenish for刚需. With the rise in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [16]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: The main contract decreased by 0.81% to 13510 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has not significantly improved, and both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline after the festival [18][19]. - **Price and Related Data**: The national average spot price increased by 0.07% to 14650 yuan/ton. There were changes in inventory, slaughter volume, and other data [18].

Report Investment Ratings - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise encouragement, but early drought in Guangxi limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand gap is basically stable with an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term: wait - and - see [1] - Cotton: The cotton target price subsidy policy in Xinjiang is stable, increasing farmers' planting enthusiasm and slightly expanding the planting area, while the inland area has a decreasing planting area. The climate during sowing and emergence was good, with an expected yield per hectare of 2172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. Total production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Cotton consumption is expected to be weak due to US tariffs, with an expected consumption of 7.4 million tons (200,000 tons less than last year) and an import volume of 1.4 million tons (100,000 tons less) [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Changes - **External Quotes**: US sugar rose 0.47% from $16.87 to $16.95; US cotton fell 0.30% from $66.18 to $65.98 [3] - **Spot Prices**: Sugar in Nanning fell 0.41% from 6115 to 6090; in Kunming, it rose 0.08% from 5945 to 5950. The cotton index 328 fell 0.11% from 3281 to 3280; cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14450 [3] - **Spreads**: Sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of decline, except for CF09 - 01 which remained unchanged. Sugar and cotton basis had various changes, with sugar basis generally rising [3] Other Data - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1513 [3] - **Options**: Implied and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased 0.93% from 31020 to 30731; cotton decreased 0.36% from 11102 to 11062 [3] Company Introduction - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million RMB, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All strategies for cotton, sugar, and pulp are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Views - The cotton market is affected by multiple factors including US policies, global supply - demand balance, and domestic production and demand. The price is expected to be volatile with a potential for a second dip [2][3] - The sugar market is facing a shift from global supply shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and its price is influenced by Brazilian production and domestic import [6][7] - The pulp market is affected by macro - factors, supply - demand relationship, and tariff uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,445 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,553 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 1st, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, the same as last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 11 points lower than last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The US tariff policy is uncertain, and the domestic economic stimulus effect needs to be observed [2] - The USDA has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season, but there are still many uncertainties. The new - season US cotton planting area has decreased, and the sowing progress is slow, but the drought in the main producing areas has improved [2] - In China, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the new - season planting area is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is in the off - season with insufficient new orders [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The key lies in the time when downstream demand decline is transmitted to the upstream [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,732 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - India's sugar inventory at the end of the 2024 - 25 season is estimated to be about 4865,000 tons, and the 2025 - 26 season is expected to see a strong production recovery with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. The raw sugar price has stopped falling, but the new - season Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the global supply in the 25/26 season is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [6] - In China, the drought in Guangxi has been basically relieved, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable. However, the weak external market and expected increase in long - term import pressure limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5,304 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-2.03%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,375 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [8] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some price adjustments in individual varieties [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price fluctuated and declined. The macro - environment has a significant impact on the pulp market, and the tariff risk has been temporarily alleviated [9] - The cost support of pulp has weakened, the supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the off - season is coming [9] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to macro - uncertainties and weak demand [10]

两粕大跌、白糖续跌 一、农产品板块综述 两粕大跌,受美豆持续下行带动,国内进口大豆集中到港,油厂 开机率提升,端午期间现货豆粕价格普遍下跌,豆粕库存增加,期价 承压下行,而菜粕空头大量平仓退场,推动菜粕大幅下行,走势转弱。 白糖持续下跌,受到外盘原糖跌势的拖累,国内白糖产量增产,且市 场对后市进口放量预期增强,压制白糖跌势持续。农副产品生猪和鸡 蛋皆走跌,因供应充足,端午后需求淡季,压制期价走低。油脂走势 分化,棕油领涨,菜油下跌,棕油产地出口需求增加支撑马来西亚棕 油走高,带动连棕油上升,继续关注产地产量及需求变化。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)豆粕、菜粕:大幅下跌 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约端午节后低开低走,受到美豆持续走 低的带动,菜粕2509 合约亦随之大跌: 1. 端午假期期间,CBOT 大豆期价持续下跌,因美豆播种进度 偏快,加之美国关税扰动,市场担心美国油籽需求受到影响,美豆期 价连续收阴。大连豆粕期价当日开盘低开低走,国内进口大豆集中到 港,油厂开机率显著回升,豆粕供应增加,库存回升,中国粮油商务 网数据显示,截至第21周国内豆粕库存20.8 万吨,环比增加 59.75%。 豆粕价格承压下行。菜 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种策 略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需 求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国关税政策，美豆油库存， 生柴需求，国内原料供应节 奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound for Multiple Products**: The report predicts short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil. For soybean meal, it's due to factors like uncertain US - China trade impact and domestic inventory conditions; rapeseed meal has a better fundamental outlook with expected lower long - term imports; palm oil is influenced by low domestic inventory and potential policy support [1]. - **Weak Performance for Cotton and Jujube**: Cotton is expected to be weak both internationally and domestically due to improved supply and lackluster demand. Jujube is likely to be weak in the short - term because of high old - crop inventory and weakening demand [1]. - **Oscillation and Bottom - Grinding for Hogs**: The hog market is in an oscillation and bottom - grinding phase. There is increasing de - stocking pressure on the spot side, and post - holiday demand is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with favorable rainfall in the next 15 days and normal rainfall expected in June according to CPC weather outlook [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will ease and enter a stocking cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. May - July monthly imports are estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 23, 2025, port soybean inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year, while oil mill soybean inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased significantly week - on - week [1][4]. - **Price Outlook**: It's expected to open slightly lower and continue to trade above 2930 yuan. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, and the short - term rebound is technical. The 3000 - 3070 yuan range is a strong short - term resistance [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Supply**: As of May 23, coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are in a good state. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than the past two years. However, May - July rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada [1][6]. - **Price Outlook**: It shows a short - term stop - falling and rebound trend, with the main contract trading in the [2585, 2650] range [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 23, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil exports in May showed good performance. The market is concerned about the potential policy of Malaysia increasing the biodiesel blend from B10 to B20 [1][8]. - **Price Outlook**: It's in a short - term rebound and consolidation phase. The domestic low - inventory situation eases supply pressure, but the Southeast Asian inventory cycle may cause the price to move down. The main contract is expected to trade in the [7950, 8200] range [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, the cotton planting and budding rates are at certain levels, and soil moisture has improved, which is bearish for the US cotton market. In Brazil, the 2024/25 cotton production is expected to increase [1][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are budding, and the new cotton growth is good. There are increasing production expectations, and the new - season production is estimated to be 720 - 740 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased, and the domestic textile industry is in a off - season with limited order recovery [1][11]. - **Price Outlook**: Internationally, it's expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Domestically, it may be weak due to factors like potential high - temperature disturbances in June and limited demand growth [1][12]. Jujube - **Production and Inventory**: Xinjiang's jujube trees are growing well. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises has increased, and it's higher than the same period. The sales area has continuous supply, but the demand is weakening seasonally [1][14]. - **Price Outlook**: It's expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the [8600, 8850] range, and attention should be paid to weather - related price impacts [1]. Hogs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the second - fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter will slow down from April to June 2025. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig slaughter in the third quarter is extending. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows in April 2025 is not significant. There may be a short - term increase in demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, but post - holiday demand is likely to fall [1][17]. - **Price Outlook**: The market is in an oscillation and bottom - grinding phase. The strategy is to short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and consider the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity. The main contract is expected to trade in the [13400, 13750] range [1][18].

·芝加哥主要农产品期价6月2日涨跌不一。 ·国际油价6月2日显著上涨，美油、布油分别上涨2.85%和2.95%。 ·纽约金价6月2日上涨2.70%，收于每盎司3404.90美元。 ·伦敦金属交易所基本金属价格6月2日收盘时全线上涨。 【农产品】 芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价2日涨跌不一。当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃 的7月合约收于每蒲式耳4.38美元，比前一交易日下跌5.75美分，跌幅为1.3%；小麦7月合约收于每蒲式 耳5.39美元，比前一交易日上涨5美分，涨幅为0.94%；大豆7月合约收于每蒲式耳10.34美元，比前一交 易日下跌8.25美分，跌幅为0.79%。 加拿大、欧洲、俄罗斯西南部出现干旱天气。在世界小麦供应面临适度威胁的情况下，小麦出现空头回 补。在美国出口需求放缓、贸易协议缺乏的情况下，芝加哥期货交易所整个谷物结构看跌。市场分析机 构警告，不要在美国中部天气有利的情况下追逐反弹。玉米也处于看跌位置，预计6月中旬玉米12月合 约将测试4.25美元至4.30 美元支撑价位。 北半球有利的天气条件，以及临近的巴西玉米收割继续打压农作物期价上涨。市场分析机构建议反弹卖 出。 美国农 ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.45%, closing at 30.5799 points, after reaching a high of 31.1312 points earlier [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.30%, settling at $4.3825 per bushel, having peaked at $4.51 [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 0.70%, reaching $5.3775 per bushel [2] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.70%, priced at $10.5450 per bushel, with soybean meal futures down by 0.43% and soybean oil futures down by 1.39% [3] - ICE raw sugar futures dropped by 1.06%, while ICE white sugar futures fell by 1.20% [4] - ICE Arabica coffee futures rose by 0.29%, and coffee "C" futures increased by 0.39%, whereas Robusta coffee futures decreased by 1.11% [5] Group 3 - New York cocoa futures fell by 2.93%, priced at $9504 per ton, with London cocoa futures also declining by 2.57% [5] - ICE cotton futures increased by 1.72% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy has announced the removal of various barriers to domestic biofuel production, which is expected to benefit farmers in the alternative fuel market [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The recent action will allow ethanol and natural gas producers to qualify for biofuel tax credits [1] Group 2: Market Impact - CBOT corn futures are down 0.45%, wheat futures down 0.09%, soybean futures down 1.05%, while soybean meal is up 0.37% and soybean oil is down 3.78% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures have increased by 0.65% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with most oil - related products falling, sugar being weak, while corn is stabilizing and rising. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as international market trends, domestic supply and demand, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 fell sharply, dragged down by the decline of soybean oil. The Malaysian production area is in the production - increasing season, and the domestic spot trading is cold. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for an opportunity to short - sell, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to decline and expanded its decline, driven by the continuous fall of US soybean oil futures. Domestic supply pressure increased due to large - scale imports of soybeans and high - level oil - mill压榨. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7700 [3]. (3) Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall and was weakly running. Domestic production increased and there were concerns about increased imports. The strategy is to maintain a light short position, with support at 5750 and resistance at 5800 [5]. (4) Peanut - The peanut main contract 2510 reversed and fell sharply after a sharp rise, dragged down by the overall decline of the oil sector. Although there are some factors supporting the price, the demand is limited. The strategy is to reduce long positions, with support at 8368 and resistance at 8528 [8]. (5) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 oscillated at a high level. The supply increased due to the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in oil - mill operation rate. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2940 and resistance at 2984 [10]. (6) Corn - The corn main contract 2507 stabilized and rose. The reduction of remaining grain in the production area and the decline of port inventory supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2330 and resistance at 2342 [11][13]. (7) Live Pig - The live pig main contract 2509 rebounded first and then declined, with limited rebound. The market is back to the influence of fundamental supply - demand. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13750 [14][16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 oscillated downward. The textile industry is in a seasonal demand trough, and the demand for cotton is weak. The strategy is to wait patiently for a breakthrough and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13235 and resistance at 13370 [17]. (9) Egg - The egg main contract 2507 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend has not reversed. The supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The strategy is for short - sellers to take profits, with support at 2869 and resistance at 2980 [19]. (10) Apple - The apple main contract 2510 continued to rebound. The low inventory and the expected reduction in the new season supported the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 7645 and resistance at 7710 [21].