1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a general rating of "oscillating weakly" for the soft commodity industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation pattern before the festival. The sugar market is at a cyclical bottom, with prices oscillating at a low level and no obvious short - term upward drive [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton - Supply side: The pressure of the previous high - yield has been basically digested. Although the output increased significantly, the increase in commercial inventory is much lower than the output increase. The market circulation supply is relatively tight, and the high spot basis continues to support cotton prices [1] - Demand side: It was resilient before, but affected by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference, imported cotton and yarn impact the domestic market. Since January, textile mills' profits have been continuously compressed, some inland mills' losses have expanded, and some enterprises plan to have an early holiday. There is no clear short - term demand trend [1] Sugar - International situation: Consultancy Stonex expects the 2026/27 sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region to be 40.7 million tons, 0.8 million tons less than the previous estimate, and the ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 0.4 billion liters more than the previous estimate. As of January 31, 2026, India's 2025/26 sugar production reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.024 million tons or 18.35%, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 to 515 [2] - Domestic situation: The domestic sugar futures price declined with the market, but it is approaching the southern sugar mills' production cost, so the downside is limited [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "partial shock" for the coke industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly restricted by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The overall supply - demand is weak during the seasonal inventory accumulation stage with the continued increase of coking coal and coke inventories. The pre - holiday restocking of downstream steel mills is nearing the end, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking is in continuous loss, so coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and there are still expectations for subsequent policies at the macro - level. Overall, the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted, while attention should be paid to the support near the previous low and the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 133,000 tons to 1.01235 million tons, reaching a 7.5 - month high with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] - This week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% week - on - week and 1.02% year - on - year. The profit rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% week - on - week. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig - iron output decreased by 12,000 tons to 227,980 tons week - on - week [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of upstream coking coal is expected to decline. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 72,000 tons to 267,200 tons, and the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 460,000 tons to 2.86434 million tons week - on - week, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to 8.57% [1] - Shanghai has launched the work of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, and Fujian has implemented phased subsidy policies such as universal housing purchase subsidies, subsidies for multi - child families, and subsidies for commercial and office buildings [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局不佳，钢矿承压走弱 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.51%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续季节性弱势， 淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运 行，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.34%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持高位，基本面弱势运行，一旦需求走弱则产业 矛盾易激化，预计钢价承压偏弱震荡运行， ...

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 焦煤：2 月 03 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1167.5 点，日内下跌 0.17%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 43.44 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+2532 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1190.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 4.0%。整体来看，焦煤基本面无明显变化，相对利好或有三方面：其一是 下游冬储仍在进行，对焦煤现货带来一定支撑；其二是春节临近，煤矿或 有提前停产放假的预期；其三是中东局势紧张，原油地缘溢价带动能源类 商品走强。不过，缺乏国内政策面和焦煤基本面支撑，焦煤期货依然缺乏 持续上涨的动能 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 豆粕：AgRural：截至上周四（1 月 29 日），2025/26 年度巴西大豆收获进 度为 10%，上周 4.9%，去年同期 3.9%。目前几乎所有产豆州的大豆收获都已经 开始，目前尚未有重大收割延误的报告，但市场关注的焦点开始转向巴西南部地 区和南马托格罗索州出现的高温干旱天气。最令人担忧的是南里奥格兰德州，该 州约有 15%的作物仍处于灌浆期。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 1 月 29 日的一周， 美国大豆出口检验量为 1,310,559 吨，去年同期为 1,140,431 吨。2025/26 年度 迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 21,991,461 吨，同比减少 35.7%，2025/26 年度 迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 51.3%。 机构大幅上调 2025/26 年度产量估值，收获进度优于去年，尽管局部天气仍 存变数，但市场对于南美丰产及供应宽松的一致性预期正得到进一步强化。不过 由于节后大豆抛储和到港仍然存在一定的不确定性，不建议过度看空，保守的建 议逢低点部分基差，期货盘面仍然以宽 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：外盘情绪影响下高位回落 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将 ...

格隆汇2月3日丨瑞达期货(002961.SZ)公布，为了满足全资子公司瑞达新控资本管理有限公司（简称"瑞 达新控"）业务发展的资金需求，公司拟使用自有资金15,000万元人民币向瑞达新控增资，增资完成 后，瑞达新控的注册资本由75,000万元人民币增加至90,000万元人民币，公司仍持有其100%股权。 ...

格隆汇2月3日丨瑞达期货(002961.SZ)公布，为了满足全资子公司瑞达新控资本管理有限公司（简称"瑞 达新控"）业务发展的资金需求，公司拟使用自有资金15,000万元人民币向瑞达新控增资，增资完成 后，瑞达新控的注册资本由75,000万元人民币增加至90,000万元人民币，公司仍持有其100%股权。 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1770 | -17 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 34 | 2 6320 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 231998 | -8287 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -14840 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 11181 | -75 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 17 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 394 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 422.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 14.4 | 1 企业库存(周,万吨) ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16180 | 200 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13135 | 210 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 130 | 0 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -40 | 5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3085 | 30 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 153505 | -2489 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 23350 | -4303 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -42056 | -1977 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -8395 | 30 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 110870 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50903 | -2016 | | | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 泰标STR20(日 ...