研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,099.00 | +1↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1805126 | +21029↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -37645 | +195↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -52 | -5↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37931 | +2090↑ HC ...

本报讯(记者王宁)近日，中粮期货在江西省赣州市落地的蛋鸡养殖饲料价格险项目收官。据悉，此次项 目突破传统"保险+期货"聚焦农产品成品价格的常规模式，转向养殖上游原料端风险防控，为当地龙头 养殖企业量身打造玉米、豆粕价格保障方案，到期后产生理赔收益，有效抵御饲料原料涨价风险，为企 业稳定生产经营、保障养殖农户收益注入金融动能。 此外，项目成功构建"政府引导+企业主体+金融赋能"的闭环服务体系，实现多方共赢：既为养殖企业 规避了成本上涨风险，更提升了农户生产积极性，为赣州地区蛋鸡养殖产业的规模化、稳定化发展提供 了坚实保障。 中粮期货相关人士表示，作为最早实践"保险+期货"模式的期货公司之一，中粮期货相关业务已覆盖国 内19个主要省(自治区)，服务农户超20万户。未来，本公司将持续深化金融服务模式创新，进一步拓 展"保险+期货"的覆盖范围与服务深度，为更多涉农主体筑牢风险"防护网"，为推进乡村全面振兴注入 更多金融"活水"。 本次合作企业为赣州某蛋鸡养殖龙头企业。在蛋鸡养殖中，饲料成本占比达60%-70%，玉米、豆粕作为 核心原料，其价格波动直接决定企业利润空间。针对饲料原料价格波动这一核心痛点，中粮期货为企业 ...

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 103032 | 3 | "沃什交易"短期或被放大，恐慌情绪释放后市场有望回归理性。沃什的提名难以对贵金属造成趋势性利 空，缩表带来的长端利率抬升，以及对基本面的负向冲击是经济"不可承受之重"，且可能加剧2025年四 季度以来美国货币市场流动性偏紧的现状，增加"钱荒"风险，落地较为困难，美债也对此反应平平。1 月上旬Polymarket曾显示沃什胜率一度跃升至最高，但市场反应有限，进一步佐证本次大跌更多是市场 情绪过热下，踩踏效应的放大。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（2月3日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计103032千克，今日仓单 较上一日增加3千克。 沪金主力盘内大幅回调，周二（2月3日）黄金期货开盘价1068.46元/克，截至目前最高1098.30元/克， 最低1033.50元/克。截止发稿报1093.78元/克，涨幅0.63%，成交量为726056手，持仓为179295手，日持 仓增加894手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has led to significant shifts in the gold and precious metals market, with expectations of tighter monetary policy impacting prices [1][3]. Market Data - On February 3, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 1093.78 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.63% with a trading volume of 726,056 lots and an open interest of 179,295 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1097.00 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 3.22 yuan per gram over the futures price [1]. Political Context - Trump's nomination of Warsh has faced resistance within the Republican Party, with Senator Thom Tillis stating opposition to any Fed nominee until the investigation into Powell is resolved [2]. - Senator Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has indicated a desire for a careful and timely confirmation process for Warsh [2]. - Senator Warren has criticized the nomination as part of Trump's broader strategy to exert control over the Federal Reserve [2]. Market Reaction - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, with a notable shift in market sentiment driven by macroeconomic expectations and technical corrections [3]. - Warsh is known for his "hawkish" stance, advocating for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, which has heightened expectations for tighter monetary policy and strengthened the dollar [3]. - The rapid price decline in precious metals was exacerbated by leveraged positions being liquidated and algorithmic trading, prompting exchanges to raise margin requirements as a risk management measure [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, structural factors supporting the long-term outlook for precious metals remain intact, suggesting a complex consolidation phase ahead [3].

每经AI快讯，广州期货交易所公告称上海久斯资管公司等3名客户和安徽硕铜国贸公司等4名客户在参 与多晶硅2512合约交易中违反持仓管理规定，对上述7名客户分别采取公开谴责、暂停开仓6至12个月， 没收上海久斯资产管理有限公司等1组3名客户违规所得415.63万元等纪律处分，并将上述纪律处分记入 资本市场诚信档案。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman has caused a huge shock in the market, its direct impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited. The intensified volatility of the equity market may push the short - term risk preference to decline, reducing the capital diversion pressure on the bond market. Coupled with the fact that the PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating that the weak economic recovery trend continues. In the context of limited external shocks and the interweaving of internal sentiment and fundamentals, the bond market may return to a volatile pattern after a short - term recovery [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.260，环比上涨0.02%，成交量72474，环比减少6023；TF主力收盘价105.905，环比上涨0.06%，成交量60771，环比增加3421；TS主力收盘价102.414，环比上涨0.03%，成交量32791，环比减少883；TL主力收盘价111.960，环比下跌0.1%，成交量94907，环比减少21790 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.14，环比上涨0.00；T03 - TL03价差为 - 3.70，环比上涨0.11；T2603 - 2606价差为0.01，环比下跌0.03；TF03 - T03价差为 - 2.36，环比上涨0.03；TF2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.03，环比上涨0.01；TS03 - T03价差为 - 5.85，环比上涨0.01 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量253976，环比下跌0.01；T前20名多头241088，环比下跌0.02；T前20名空头238457，环比增加1819；T前20名净空仓2219，环比增加2574；TF主力持仓量134147，环比增加3608；TF前20名多头142860，环比增加3929；TF前20名空头136970，环比增加5885；TF前20名净空仓 - 5890，环比减少1956；TS主力持仓量61998，环比减少1616；TS前20名多头59586，环比增加96；TS前20名空头52590，环比增加94；TS前20名净空仓 - 6996，环比增加2；TL主力持仓量127313，环比减少2868；TL前20名多头142289，环比增加839；TL前20名空头140314，环比减少2272；TL前20名净空仓 - 1975，环比增加3111 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 250018.IB(6y）净价100.6082，环比上涨0.0216；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，环比上涨0.0323；250014.IB(4y）净价100.1151，环比上涨0.0173；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比上涨0.0205；250017.IB(2y)净价100.1168，环比上涨0.0239；240022.IB(2y)净价100.156，环比上涨0.0046；210005.IB(17y)净价126.3679，环比下跌0.1100；210014.IB(18y)净价123.215，环比下跌0.1100 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.2950%，环比上涨0.50bp；3y收益率1.3950%，环比持平；5y收益率1.5725%，环比持平；7y收益率1.6875%，环比上涨1.05bp；10y收益率1.8100%，环比上涨0.90bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3228%，环比下跌4.16bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3170%，环比下跌4.80bp；银质押7天利率1.4833%，环比下跌0.59bp；Shibor7天利率1.4880%，环比上涨0.30bp；银质押14天利率1.5600%，环比上涨3.10bp；Shibor14天利率1.5110%，环比上涨0.20bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y LPR利率3.00%，环比持平；5y LPR利率3.5%，环比持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1055亿，到期规模4020亿，净回笼2965亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 商务部等九单位启动2026“乐购新春”春节特别活动，时间为2月15至23日；1月北京、上海二手房成交量同比增幅均超20%，深圳二手房成交环比增长16%，同比增长7%，杭州二手房成交环同比明显增长，重点城市新房市场表现相对平淡；中共中央、国务院批复同意《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035年）》 [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - 2/2 23:00关注美国1月ISM制造业指数；2/5 21:15关注欧洲央行利率决议 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rebounded collectively. The macro and commodity sentiment improved, driving up the futures prices. However, after the trading sentiment stabilized, the increase brought by the news was reversed, and the futures prices declined due to the weakening support on the spot side [1]. - China's export competitiveness is continuously strengthening, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm, and control risks [1]. - The current spot price is supported by the slight price increase of multiple shipping companies and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy on contracts after April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - EC2604, the main contract, closed up 5.22%, and the far - month contracts closed up between 1 - 3%. The EC2604 - EC2606 spread was +32.70, and the EC2604 - EC2608 spread was - 360.00. The EC contract basis was - 53.30. The main contract's holding volume increased by 423 to 34,229 lots [1]. Spot Market - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1,792.14, down 67.17 points from the previous week, a 3.6% month - on - month decline. The SCFI (composite index) decreased by 141.11 points week - on - week, and the CCFI (composite index) decreased by 33.16 points week - on - week. Maersk's cabin opening price for weeks 7 - 9 decreased by $100 compared to week 6, while other shipping companies such as COSCO and CMA also continued to lower their prices [1]. Industry News - Iran may start high - level nuclear negotiations with the United States in the next few days. It is expected that the US envoy and the Iranian foreign minister will meet in Istanbul on February 6 to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement" [1]. - The Fed's Bostic said that no interest rate cuts are expected in 2026, and it is too early to claim that the inflation target has been achieved. The policy rate needs to be maintained at a moderately restrictive level [1]. - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" special event from February 15 to 23, aiming to create a comprehensive and enjoyable Spring Festival consumption feast [1]. - Starting from April 1, 2026, all listed photovoltaic products will no longer enjoy the VAT export tax - refund preferential policy, which may lead to a rush to ship and boost long - term contract cargo volume [1]. Geopolitical and Economic Outlook - Trump said that the US "expects" to reach an agreement with Iran and end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved [1]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone, and inflation is close to the target level, which supports the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [1]. Key Data to Watch - Eurozone January CPI annual rate preliminary value at 18:00 on February 4. - Eurozone December PPI monthly rate at 18:00 on February 4. - US January ADP employment data (in ten thousands) at 21:15 on February 4 [1].

贵金属期货日报 2026/2/3 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1093.780 | 85.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 21446 | -3386.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 179,295.00 | +894.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 11,084.00 | -782.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 726,056.00 | -167261 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9215 | 79 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2249 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 80 | 8 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -38 | -17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 285363 | 1028 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 922401 | 9439 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -14551 | -2962 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -229177 | -22631 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 645.4 | -2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 6007 | 32 | | ...

股指期货全景日报 2026/2/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4653.0 | 环比 数据指标 +59.0↑ IF次主力合约（2602） | 最新 4657.6 | 环比 +53.0↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 3033.0 8282.0 | +27.4↑ IH次主力合约（2602） +305.0↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 3032.8 8295.8 | +26.0↑ +280.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8183.0 | +228.2↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8213.0 | +223.0↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1624.8 | +46.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3638.2 | +269.4↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -82.8 | -41.8↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5263.0 | +315.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 3555.4 ...