Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market showed a "front suppression and back rise" trend post-Spring Festival, with significant capital inflow into the technology growth sector, particularly in TMT, where transaction volume exceeded 50% [2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend in yields, influenced by the central bank's liquidity measures and geopolitical tensions, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.78% [4] - Commodity prices were affected by geopolitical events, with Brent crude oil stabilizing above $72 per barrel and gold prices rising significantly, reflecting a strong demand for safe-haven assets [6] - Macro policies indicated a focus on stimulating the silver economy and easing housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai, aiming to boost demand [8] - International markets faced increased volatility, with U.S. stock indices declining due to geopolitical tensions and fears surrounding AI's impact on traditional business models [10] Market Overview - The A-share market saw a notable performance with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4163, up 1.98% for the week and 22.87% year-on-year [13] - The bond market showed mixed results, with the overall bond index slightly down by 0.07% [13] - Commodity indices reflected varied performances, with the South China Commodity Index up 3.56% for the week [13] Sector Performance - The technology sector demonstrated strong performance, with significant capital inflow and high sensitivity to marginal positive news, while the media sector showed signs of profit-taking with a weekly decline of 5.10% [2] - The small metals sector experienced a remarkable weekly increase of 17.72%, indicating a revaluation of strategic resources under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Upcoming Focus - The upcoming Two Sessions will be critical for policy expectations, particularly regarding GDP growth targets and fiscal deficit rates, which could influence market sentiment [11] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on commodity prices and market stability [11] - The release of February's official PMI data will be significant for assessing the economic recovery's foundation, with potential implications for bond market support and cyclical sectors [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and inflation expectations [7][12][13] - Different industries and commodities show various trends and investment opportunities under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes Summary by Directory Macro Information - The 2026 National Two Sessions are about to start. The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th [7] - US President Trump made tough statements on multiple issues during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz, and announced insurance for maritime crude oil transportation and potential naval escort [7] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp decline in the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and the logistics of dry bulk and containers in the region has come to a standstill [7] - The conflict between the US and Iran has continued to spread, with the destruction of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility and threats from both sides. The election of Iran's new supreme leader is in the final stage [7] - Trump's actions have led to a new wave of stock selling and rising energy prices, increasing inflation concerns. The probability of the Fed's second interest - rate cut this year has dropped to 50% [7] - In February, the central bank's MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, SLF net investment was 0 yuan, and other structural monetary policy tools had a net investment of - 7.6 billion yuan. In open - market operations, the net investment of national debt trading was 50 billion yuan, 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net investment of - 120.5 billion yuan, and other - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 600 billion yuan [8] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [8] - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of power supply guarantee, energy transformation, and the construction of a unified national power market [8] - Alibaba's desktop Agent QoderWork is fully open, providing Mac and Windows versions [8] - Trump submitted a notice under the War Powers Act to Congress regarding the military operation against Iran on February 28th. Congress will vote on a bill to limit the president's war - making power this week [9] - India has 25 - day inventories of crude oil and refined fuels and is looking for alternative sources of imports [9] - Qatar's LNG export facilities were attacked and shut down, and the company suspended the production of multiple products. Goldman Sachs raised its natural gas price forecast [10] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is mainly for risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks have reduced risk appetite and pushed up inflation expectations, suppressing the performance of the equity market [12] Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks have reduced risk appetite and pushed up inflation expectations, which may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [13] Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The current order - receiving situation of steel is generally okay, but some steel mills face pressure. The downstream galvanized and cold - rolled processing fees are still inverted, and the inventory of steel, especially coils, is high, which suppresses steel prices [14] - The real - estate new - house sales data is still weak year - on - year, and the new construction starts have a large decline. Infrastructure projects have limited starts, but the funds in place have improved year - on - year. The demand for coils from downstream industries is okay [14] - The supply side has low - level profits for steel mills, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The raw material prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate. For iron ore, short - term high - position short orders can take profits, and long - term partial short orders can be held lightly [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price of coking coal and coke may fluctuate. After the Spring Festival, the supply has recovered significantly, while the demand from steel mills has a rigid support but is restricted by the uncertain recovery of terminal steel demand. International energy price increases may support the price [18] Ferroalloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The silicon - iron market is in a tight - balance pattern before large - scale resumption of production in Qinghai, and the demand from magnesium for silicon - iron is strong. Manganese - silicon has an oversupply situation, and the cost is relatively strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions in silicon - iron when the price surges and to wait and see for manganese - silicon [19] Soda Ash and Glass - The market has strong expectations for the future maintenance of soda - ash plants and potential cold - repair plans for glass production lines. The supply of soda ash remains high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The supply of glass has both cold - repair and ignition plans. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - Under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the potential balance - sheet reduction may put pressure on copper prices. The short - term copper price will fluctuate widely. The long - term supply of global copper mines is tight, which supports the copper price [22] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market has a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. In the short term, supply increases and demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. In the medium term, the supply may be restricted, and the demand is expected to increase, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - valuation repair. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is not significant, and the polysilicon market is under pressure due to shipping blockages [26] Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market should focus on the actual demand for resumption of production and the impact of external conflicts. The short - term trend will turn into a shock. The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the cotton price is expected to rise in the long term [30] Sugar - The sugar market has a situation of phased supply surplus, and the sugar price is under pressure. The global sugar surplus has been adjusted, and the production in some countries has been reduced. The Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the rise in oil prices. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [31] Eggs - The spot price of eggs in March is expected to rise, but the space is limited. The second - quarter futures contracts are supported by the expected rise in the spot price, but the premium is large, so the upper pressure is high. The far - month contracts are under pressure due to good replenishment data [34] Apples - High - quality apple products are expected to continue a strong trend, and the futures price may be strong. The prices of high - quality apples in some western regions are rising, while the prices in Shandong are stable [36] Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures price fluctuates. The corn faces phased pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [37] Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The price in the Cangzhou market is stable, and the consumption during the Spring Festival is generally flat. The market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [37] Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is likely to be weak. It is not recommended to short the near - month futures contracts in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the entry of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage [39] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude - oil price has risen and then fallen, and the extreme panic has eased. The geopolitical situation is still the main trading factor. The US - Iran conflict has a significant impact on global crude - oil supply. If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the global crude - oil price will soar. The OPEC+ may increase production to make up for the potential supply shortage [42] Fuel Oil - The short - term trading of fuel oil is mainly affected by the geopolitical - led oil price. The supply risk has not been eliminated, and the Strait of Hormuz is still the biggest risk factor for the oil price [44] Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the polyolefin price. The polyolefin supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, but the war in Iran has led to an increase in the oil price and a reduction in plastic production, making the market atmosphere strong [45] Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. It is possible to continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR spread and shorting the RU - BR spread. The overseas raw - material price is strong, and the domestic production area has a good opening - cut expectation [46] Synthetic Rubber - Based on the good fundamentals of butadiene in the first half of the year, it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber at low prices, but be cautious about the rapid decline in energy prices and high inventory. The price of synthetic rubber is rising due to cost - push factors [48] Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly, but the Middle - East situation is still uncertain. The local war in Iran may lead to a reduction in methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock thinking, but a shutdown of downstream MTO plants may cause a price callback [49] Caustic Soda - The chlor - alkali industry is gradually resuming production. The caustic - soda price is relatively weak due to the impact of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to have a wide - range shock thinking for caustic - soda futures [50] Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - winter - storage replenishment demand in March [51] PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the expectation of future capacity - reduction policies and the improvement of the fundamental situation caused by recent export rush. The short - term trend may be bullish - shock. The rise in the oil price will increase the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and use an interval - shock thinking [52] Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is dominated by the oil price and market sentiment, and it will continue to be strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [53] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Iran is an important LPG supplier to China. The future LPG supply is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation has increased volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [54] Pulp - The pulp market has a conflict between weak reality and macro factors, resulting in unstable multi - empty games. The port inventory has reached a new high, and the downstream has not started replenishing inventory. The price has support from the supply - side disturbance and foreign - market price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory and price - increase implementation [56] Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under cost support. The inventory data after the Spring Festival is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and the new delivery rules [57] Urea - The urea - futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies. The spot - market price is basically stable, and the futures price is supported by the rise in the overseas oil price but is also restricted by the policy guidance price [58]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23950，基差45，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨58646吨至355986吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向下运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 现货价格 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a mixed fundamental situation. Supply is disrupted with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The overall assessment is bullish [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 101,800 with a basis of -300, at a discount to the futures, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 0 to 257,675 tons on March 3, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, they will move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to events in the Middle East [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a decline in manufacturing PMI. Bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 101,800, basis - 300 (discount to futures), neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Copper inventory on March 3 increased by 0 to 257,675 tons, SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to last week, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price below 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average upward, neutral [2]. - **Main Positions**: Net long positions, long positions decreasing, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, high - level price fluctuations, short - term volatility, focus on Middle East events [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mine supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine production increase, and production cuts at the Freeport Indonesia mine [3][4]. - **利空Factors**: Repeated US tariffs and weak global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar market surplus of 122 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, down from the previous estimate of 163 million tons. Covrig Analytics expects the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season to shrink to 140 million tons, lower than the 470 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool anticipates a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season, less than the 274 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season [5]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 59 (for the 05 contract), with a premium over futures, showing a neutral situation. The industrial inventory as of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.99 million tons, also neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, tending to be bearish [5]. - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of emerging from the right - hand side of the market. Downstream enterprises began to replenish stocks after the festival, market demand started to recover, the crude oil price rose, and the price of sugar - made ethanol increased, indirectly supporting the sugar price. The center of sugar price has shifted upward, and a short - term bullish and volatile view is recommended [5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the fall of the foreign sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found 4. Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar - crushing seasons. For example, the ISO predicts a 122 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, and Green Pool predicts a 15.6 - million - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [5]. - In China, the sugar - cane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields per hectare, and sugar production, import, consumption, and export data from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are presented. For instance, in 2025/26, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, import is 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and export is 180,000 tons [33]. - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar after processing with a 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are provided. For example, on December 9, 2025, the cost was 5,132 yuan per ton, and the profit was 618 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - No relevant content found

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **For Coking Coal**: Although the overall start - up of coking enterprises has recovered, they still face the pressure of inventory accumulation and falling coke prices, and maintain a cautious attitude towards coking coal procurement. With an important meeting approaching and downstream production restrictions, the release of coking coal demand is limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [3]. - **For Coke**: Affected by the off - season market and profit, steel mills' enthusiasm for coke procurement has declined, mainly on a demand - based basis, leading to inventory accumulation in some coking enterprises. After the festival, supply has recovered faster than demand, the contradiction between supply and demand of coke has become prominent, and the cost - side support for coke has gradually weakened. The market expectation of price reduction has further increased. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [8]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coal mines in production areas are gradually resuming production, and coking coal supply is increasing. However, coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy, mainly purchasing coking coal as needed. After the festival, the market trading atmosphere is somewhat cold, and the trading sentiment is also cautious. The online auction market performs averagely, and the non - sale rate of some coal types has increased, with the transaction price continuing to decline from the pre - festival high [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 53, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 820,000 tons, port inventory is 2.58 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 8.93 million tons. The total sample inventory is 19.71 million tons, a decrease of 2.43 million tons compared with last week [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [4]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force of coking coal is net long, and the long position increases [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iron and steel production increases, and supply is difficult to increase [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Coking and steel enterprises slow down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [6]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the prices of some raw coal types have fluctuated downward, the cost of coking coal for coking enterprises has decreased, and profits have been repaired. The overall start - up level is okay, but affected by the decline in downstream procurement enthusiasm, coking enterprises face certain inventory - reduction pressure. At the same time, as the price of the coking coal auction market has declined, the support of the raw material end for the coke spot price has weakened [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 74, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 689,000 tons, port inventory is 199,000 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 56,000 tons. The total sample inventory is 944,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with last week [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [8]. - **Positive Factors**: Iron and steel production increases, and the blast furnace start - up rate rises simultaneously [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit space of steel mills is squeezed, and the restocking demand has been partially overdrawn [10]. Inventory Details - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.58 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 56,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared with last week [26]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 820,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 689,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons compared with last week [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] - The expected price ranges for different oils are: soybean oil Y2605 between 8200 - 8600, palm oil P2605 between 8900 - 9300, and rapeseed oil OI2605 between 9400 - 9800 [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Supply - **Soybean oil inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - **Soybean meal inventory**: Not detailed in the report - **Oil mill soybean crushing**: Not detailed in the report - **Palm oil inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed oil inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed inventory**: Not detailed in the report - **Total domestic oil and fat inventory**: Not detailed in the report Demand - **Soybean oil apparent consumption**: Not detailed in the report - **Soybean meal apparent consumption**: Not detailed in the report Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil tremor season [5] - **Negative**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 4, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macroeconomic situation shows that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalation of the Iran situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuations. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The macro situation is positive, and the Iran situation provides cost support. Downstream demand in the agricultural film sector is recovering slowly, while the packaging film has low - load rigid demand and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7050 (+330), with an overall positive fundamental situation [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 150, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.1%, which is negative [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 627,000 tons (+259,000), which is negative [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is positive [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is strong, with cost support from the Iran situation, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [4] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. Negative factors are oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand. Main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [6] PP - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is positive, and the Iran situation provides cost support. The rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north is recovering quickly but with limited growth, and the BOPP industry has a fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (+350), with an overall positive fundamental situation [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 123, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is negative [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 740,000 tons (+349,000), which is negative [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is positive [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is strong, with cost support from the Iran situation, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [7] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. Negative factors are oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand. Main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengzhou Cotton shows short - term concentrated bullish factors, and the market needs adjustment. In terms of fundamentals, the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are approaching, US tariffs are lowered, and Sino - US relations are easing, which is beneficial for textile exports. Cotton will fluctuate and adjust, with the main 05 contract oscillating in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA February report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, consumption is 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%; and imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The overall situation is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,591, and the basis is 1336 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China predicts an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons for the 2025/2026 season in February, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but still considered bullish [6]. - **Bullish Factors**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is under regulation, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenished stocks before the Spring Festival. Tariffs on exports to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations are easing. The traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are coming [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders are decreasing, and inventory is increasing. A large amount of new cotton is on the market. Currently, it is the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In February, the total global cotton output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% or 286,000 tons; consumption is 25.847 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0% or 49,000 tons; the ending inventory is 16.353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% or 295,000 tons [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the output is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 7.88 million tons, the sown area is 2.979 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.979 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 2229 kg/ha, the output is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/03/0 10-094 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: Wang Yi speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi by phone. (Xinhua). ...