研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/03 | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/11/26 | 5615 | 5470 | 5480 | 236 | 268 | 448 | 7876 | | 2025/11/27 | 3086 | 5470 | 5455 | -2317 | - | - | 258 | | 2025/11/28 | 5615 | 5470 | 5455 | 215 | 248 | 428 | 183 | | 2025/12/01 | 5585 | 5470 | 5425 | 180 | 349 | 529 | 183 | | 2025/12/02 | 5565 | 5470 | 5415 | 183 | 267 | 446 | - | | 变化 | -20 | 0 | -10 | 3 | -82 | -83 | - | 【行情分析】： 白糖：短期郑糖受进口配额 ...

02 现货行情 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕11月产量环比减0.19% USDA美豆当周出口检验920194吨符合预期 20251202 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月2日 07:47 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4064.00 | -0. 51 | -0. 71 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 63. 33 | 1.62 | 0. 03 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 59.51 | 1.76 | 0.08 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1127.25 | -0. 88 | -0. 79 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 314. 50 | -1.29 | -0.66 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52. 32 | 0. 46 | 0. 10 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99. 40 | -0. 03 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8044 | -4 | -0.05% | 30,412 | 67.54% | 24,949 | 3.30% | | PK510 | 8226 | -12 | -0.15% | 85 | 30.77% | 722 | 6.96% | | PK601 | 8108 | -44 | -0.54% | 80,559 | -3.35% | 108,135 | -12.42% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 800 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a weakening bullish trend in hot-rolled coil (热卷) commodities, with over 50 stock indices ceasing tracking [2][3] - The quantitative indicators for hot-rolled coil show a trend score of 1.15, with a market valuation of 1.02, historical low volatility at 32.39, and a turnover rate of 0.27 [4] - The supply of hot-rolled coil is at a weekly production of 3.19 million tons, which is higher than the same period in previous years, with total inventory at 4.01 million tons, significantly above historical levels [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 156.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, achieving a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [7] - As of December 2, two steel mills have announced winter storage policies [8] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide increased by 1.5715 million tons to 15.91569 million tons compared to the previous week [9] Group 3 - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a fluctuating market with bullish emotions, showing a trend degree of 24% for bullish and 6% for bearish [20] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases include BR rubber at 3.99%, pulp at 2.62%, and silver at 2.46% [21] - The top three commodities with the largest increase in positions are asphalt with 14,100 contracts, lithium carbonate with 8,606 contracts, and silicon iron with 8,382 contracts [21]

行业游说组织称，乌克兰主要农产品出口量11月较10月增长12%。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant rise in the commodity market, particularly in precious and base metals, driven by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the probability of a cut rising from approximately 30%-40% to 80% [4] - Silver has shown the most remarkable increase, with Comex silver reaching a new high of $58.6 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 90% [4] - The core support for this price movement stems from a supply-demand gap, with industrial demand remaining resilient despite technological advancements reducing marginal energy consumption [6] Group 2 - Silver demand from the photovoltaic sector remains high, with India's import volume rebounding to an annual scale of 5,500-6,000 tons, contributing to industrial demand resilience [6] - Silver inventories have dropped significantly, with Shanghai Futures Exchange silver stocks falling to around 710 tons (the lowest in nearly a decade) and Comex deliverable stocks decreasing to 4,300 tons [6] - The article notes that the speculative demand driven by rising gold prices has indirectly opened up upward potential for silver [6] Group 3 - The Silver Institute projects global silver production to be 32,115 tons and 31,881 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a potential decline in demand from solar equipment production due to rising prices [9] - The article highlights that the market is currently in an overbought phase, with a need for caution regarding potential high-level corrections [9] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand follow-through, as the current commodity bull narrative is not driven by traditional demand factors [14] Group 4 - Recent economic data indicates a weak recovery, with the manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.2 and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5, suggesting ongoing weak recovery dynamics [14] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises showed a slight overall increase but a month-on-month decline, indicating uneven economic recovery [15] - The article suggests that while there are some positive signals in policy demand, such as energy storage planning, the overall demand remains weak [16] Group 5 - The article warns of potential risks in the commodity market, particularly in oil prices, which are under pressure due to high inventories and weak demand [17] - It also highlights the importance of identifying marginal changes in supply, with specific attention to the palm oil market, where production has significantly decreased [17] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are noted as critical events that could impact risk assets and market sentiment [21]

（来源：东北新闻网） 11月，全省重要农产品市场供应充足，其中粮油价格微幅下降，猪肉和鸡蛋价格小幅下降，蔬菜价格小 幅上涨。 一、重要民生商品价格运行情况 （一）猪肉价格小幅下降。供应上，养殖企业为冲年度目标提前出栏生猪，二次育肥大猪集中上市，再 加上进口猪肉和冻肉库存充足，市场猪肉供过于求。需求端偏弱，11月禽肉等替代品价格较低分流了部 分猪肉消费，餐饮和家庭采购不多，消化不了过剩供应，猪肉价格随之小幅下降。11月28日，生猪（每 500克，下同）平均价格6.04元，月环比下降5.18%，同比下降28.01%；猪肉（去骨后腿肉）10.63元， 月环比下降2.03%，同比下降18.79%。 来源：滚动播报 据国家对36个大中城市监测，鸡蛋平均价格4.59元，月环比下降0.43%，同比下降18.9%。 （三）蔬菜价格小幅上涨。供应上，本地大地菜基本退市，大棚菜受降温影响种植、运输成本上涨，农 户存在涨价获利预期选择惜售，供应更显紧张。需求端，天冷后居民爱买蔬菜炖煮，家庭和餐饮的蔬菜 采购量上涨，供需缺口拉大，导致近期蔬菜价格小幅上涨。11月28日，重点监测的16种蔬菜平均价格为 3.77元，月环比上涨1.41% ...

在11月28日，中储粮再度发布的两份公告中，收购入库价格均较上旬均有所抬升，除蛋白含量（干基） ≥39%净粮以外，其他蛋白含量的收购价格均环比上调0.025元／斤。公告发布后，市场信心明显提升， 尤其是东北产区，贸易商反馈出货价格在12月均有所上调，因目前农户手中余粮较少，后期收货价格预 计同样提升。 综上，国储大豆收购价格的上调，有利于提振市场情绪，卓创资讯预计12月国产大豆价格震荡上涨，东 北产区40%蛋白净粮价格或至2.18元／斤。 （作者：王文深，卓创资讯分析师） 受11月28日国储收购价格上调的消息提振，东北产区国产大豆价格纷纷上调，预计12月份国产大豆价格 将震荡上涨。 进入11月后，市场重点关注国储大豆拍卖情况，以及国储大豆收购情况。从11月的国储大豆拍卖情况 看，11月份的拍卖成交均价为3902元／吨，较10月份均价下跌0.13%；成交率均值为40.82%，较10月均 值38.27%增加2.55%。从量价走势看，价格走弱带动成交率的增加，但部分需求转向2022/23年度为主的 低价货源。出现这一局面的原因在于：一方面市场有一定刚需存在，另一方面下游认为目前市场价格偏 高，接受度下滑。 从国储大 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex situation of "declining prices and increasing volatility" [2] - The market dynamics for energy, metals, and agricultural products are diverging, challenging traditional supply-demand logic and requiring companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness [2] - The upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures is highlighted as a potential game-changer for the industry and global markets [2] Event Details - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) is hosting a commodity seminar in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, on December 4, 2025, focusing on the impact of the "14th Five-Year Plan" on the copper market and exclusive data releases related to gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [3][4] - The agenda includes presentations from various experts, including Kian Pang Tan on palm oil market outlook and Fu Xiaoyan on opportunities in the copper market [3][4] Expert Profiles - Kian Pang Tan, with over ten years of experience in agricultural research, specializes in palm oil and sugar market analysis, utilizing weather and satellite data for yield predictions [6] - Fu Xiaoyan, a senior director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, has extensive experience in the futures industry and focuses on copper market research [7][8] - Chen Xiaoyan, the agricultural research director at Dadi Futures, has a background in information consulting and commodity trading [9] LSEG's Commodity Trading Solutions - LSEG offers comprehensive data and analytical solutions for energy, metals, and agricultural trading, enhancing decision-making processes for clients [14][16][19] - The company emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization, combining fundamental, supply-demand, and alternative data sources to provide competitive advantages in trading [13][22] - LSEG's platforms, such as Eikon and RDMS, allow clients to access leading trading insights across various commodity markets [17][18]

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 玉米现货报价偏强运行，周末东北玉米价格偏强运行为主，东北深加工玉米收购 价格上涨对行情仍有一定的支撑，基层农户惜售情绪较为明显。 周末山东玉米 供应市场，短期市场情绪看涨预期较强，预计随着本地粮源供应量逐渐增加，华 | 震荡上涨 | | | 周一，玉米近月 2601 和 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价当日下探后尾盘收复部分失地。 | | | | 价格整体维持稳定，部分企业玉米价格有涨有跌，调整范围有限。东北粮源持续 | | | | 北玉米供应紧张的局面有望得到缓解。 周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口 | | | | 贸易商报价保持高位，但市场整体购销活跃度一般，高价成交偏少。下游饲料厂 | | | | 观望心态为主，维持 30-40 天安全头寸滚动补库。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强 | | | | 势表现，期价震荡调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动 | | | | 态止盈。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收跌，因市场关注出口销售数据。USDA 检验报告显示，美豆 口销售报告显示，截至 10 月 2 ...