Core Insights - The Canton Fair, known as "China's first exhibition," is thriving despite the global economic downturn, attracting a diverse range of international buyers [1][2]. Group 1: International Buyer Diversity - As of October 27, nearly 240,000 overseas buyers attended the fair, representing a 6.8% increase from the previous session, with participants from 223 countries and regions [2]. - The growth in international participation reflects China's strong market appeal and its expanding trade relationships, particularly with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, which saw a 6.2% increase in trade [2][3]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on emerging markets and innovating their products to remain competitive in traditional markets [4]. - For instance, a company has shifted its strategy to cater to the growing purchasing power in global southern countries, adapting products to local preferences, which has led to significant order growth [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements in Manufacturing - The transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China" is evident, with a notable increase in the technological and innovative content of export products [6][7]. - The fair showcased over 1 million new products, with a significant portion featuring independent intellectual property rights, highlighting the shift towards high-tech and innovative manufacturing [7][8]. Group 4: E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce has emerged as a new growth engine, with an estimated import and export volume of approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, marking a 6.4% increase [5][6]. - Companies are leveraging platforms like Amazon and TikTok to expand their online marketing networks, indicating a shift in sales strategies amidst fluctuating traditional trade conditions [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire industry is "Swing" [8][9][10][11][14][16][17][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the industry has marginal weakening, the contradictions are limited. Recently, the macro has continuously released positive news, strengthening the lower support for the prices of sector varieties, which is consistent with the previous judgment of weakened industrial chain logic and strengthened macro - expectations. As long as the hot metal output does not decline more than expected, the macro level will continue to support the prices of sector varieties [8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The daily consumption of sintered powder ore by steel enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term downward expectation of hot metal. But the strengthening of the macro - atmosphere continued to push up the prices of sector varieties. The macro - positives included the release of the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] 2. Different Element and Product Analyses Iron Element - For iron ore, the fundamentals have marginal weakening, but the overall contradictions are not prominent. The macro - expectation dominates in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate with support. For scrap steel, the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products due to warming macro - sentiment and slightly improved finished product data [3] Carbon Element - For coke, environmental protection restrictions have limited impact, and the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. With rising costs, coke has started a third round of price increases, but steel mills' profits are under pressure, so the price is expected to oscillate. For coking coal, supply is hard to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy due to low upstream inventory. The third - round price increase boosts the market, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3] Alloys - For manganese silicon, short - term cost stability and high steel output support the price, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is insufficient. For ferrosilicon, high finished product output and stable costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward space is limited [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the recent strengthening of the futures price has driven a positive futures - spot feedback, but the replenishment space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction through marketization is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward. For soda ash, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro, with the long - term price center moving down to promote capacity reduction [3][8] 3. Individual Product Analyses Steel - Spot market transactions are average, but speculative sentiment has improved. Steel production shows a downward sign, while demand continues to recover, and inventory is decreasing. Short - term the futures price has a rebound drive, but the upward space is limited due to high inventory [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions increased, and the spot price was strong. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume has a rebound expectation. Demand - side iron water output declined marginally, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term with macro - expectations dominant [9][10] Scrap Steel - Supply has decreased slightly, and electric furnace profits have increased. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to follow the finished products [11] Coke - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to increase due to cost and environmental factors. Demand may decline slightly, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with continued game between steel and coke enterprises [12] Coking Coal - The futures price oscillated strongly. Supply is hard to improve due to production disturbances in mines. Import resources are tight, and inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [13] Glass - The price oscillated. Supply may be affected by gas - related changes, but short - term output decline is limited. Demand is weakening, and the replenishment ability is limited. The price rebound space is limited, and it may oscillate downward in the long - term [14] Soda Ash - The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Supply is stable, and demand is okay. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price has strong bottom support but lacks upward driving force in the short - term. In the long - term, the price center will move down [16] Manganese Silicon - The futures price oscillated strongly following the upward trend of the black sector. Cost increases are limited, and demand support is weakening due to expected steel production decline. Supply is at a high level, and the price increase driving force is insufficient [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price rebounded after a decline. Cost has increased, and supply pressure is accumulating. Demand may decline due to expected steel production decline. The price has support but limited upward space [18] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - The commodity index was 2263.37, up 0.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2558.20, up 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2266.37, up 1.23% [98] Section Index - The steel industry chain index was 2059.83 on October 29, 2025, with a daily increase of 1.85%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 1.03%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.30% [100]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, in the long - term, steel prices' upward logic remains unchanged under the increasingly loose macro - environment. However, in the short - term, the actual demand for steel is still weak and unlikely to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - For the iron ore market, the price is expected to fluctuate. Although the supply is increasing and the demand is weakening with the decline of iron - making water production, the positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the expected interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve have an impact on the market [5]. - For the black metal sector, the outlook is not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after price corrections rather than short - selling. The downward momentum of the black metal sector has significantly weakened after nearly four years of decline [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment in the short - term, and the cost provides some support [14]. - For polysilicon, the supply pressure may be marginally relieved, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The price is affected by policy expectations and industry news, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation [16]. - For glass, the futures price rebounded due to short - position exits, and the market's bearish sentiment eased. Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends and the operation of production lines in the Shahe area [19]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term due to the combination of cost support and high inventory [21]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (1.358%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1221 tons to 124,540 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 36,350 lots to 1.894 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3345 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.210%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3402 tons to 104,773 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 12,738 lots to 1.461 million lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Strategic Views** - Macroscopically, real - estate investment will shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement", and the new construction area is unlikely to increase significantly. Fundamentally, rebar's supply and demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline; the output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, demand improved marginally, and inventory reduction accelerated [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.51% (+12.00). The open interest decreased by 6094 lots to 542,900 lots, and the weighted open interest was 916,500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 805 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.06 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.08% [4]. - **Strategic Views** - The supply of iron ore is increasing, with the overseas shipment volume at a high level. The demand is weakening as the daily average iron - making water production has dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, positive macro - signals may affect the market [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On October 29, affected by the market atmosphere and other factors, the price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon rebounded. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 1.07% at 5852 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 58 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.54% at 5594 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 56 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategic Views** - The supply of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may be restricted in the future. Currently, steel mills are facing difficulties due to high supply and low demand, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". The outlook for the black metal sector is not pessimistic, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black metal sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9170 yuan/ton, up 2.40% (+215). The weighted open interest decreased by 693 lots to 432,693 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton for the main contract [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 1.17% (+635). The weighted open interest decreased by 5722 lots to 250,114 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg to 51 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategic Views** - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment in the short - term, and the cost provides some support [14]. - For polysilicon, the supply pressure may be marginally relieved, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The price is affected by policy expectations and industry news, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1113 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 1.64% (+18). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (3.64%) to 66.613 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 4570 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,408 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 0.56% (-7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (3.64%) to 1.7021 million tons, with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 0.62 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 0.78 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 6034 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 36,087 short positions [20]. - **Strategic Views** - The glass futures price rebounded due to short - position exits, and the market's bearish sentiment eased. Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends and the operation of production lines in the Shahe area [19]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term due to the combination of cost support and high inventory [21].

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market has experienced a "first decline then rise" trend since October, with ongoing battles between "weak reality" and "strong expectations" impacting market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - After the National Day holiday, the main glass futures contract (2601) fell from a high of 1233 yuan/ton to 1072 yuan/ton by October 22, a decline of 15.02%, reflecting strong pessimism in the market [1] - Following the low point on October 22, the glass futures market entered a phase of bottom consolidation, with the contract closing at 1127 yuan/ton on October 29, a 5.13% increase from the previous low [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Post-holiday, glass production and sales data remained weak, with inventory accumulation exceeding market expectations, leading to pressure on the spot market [1] - Recent improvements in glass production and sales data, with sales rates exceeding 100% on October 28, have provided fundamental support for the futures market rebound [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors - The rebound in glass prices is driven by a combination of real market factors, policy expectations, and cost support, with recent price reductions stimulating demand and improving sales rates [2] - The upcoming glass industry symposium has heightened expectations for policy support, while the "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the competitiveness of traditional industries, further boosting market confidence [2] Group 4: Price Outlook - Analysts express differing views on whether glass prices have bottomed out, with some suggesting that the current market dynamics are still characterized by "weak reality" and "strong expectations" [3] - The potential for a year-end rush in demand and the effectiveness of capacity exit driven by policy or market forces are critical factors to monitor for future price movements [4]

Report Core View - Glass bottom was likely formed in June, and currently it's difficult for the market to break the previous low due to policy and cost changes [4] - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the market has shifted to trading strong expectation at low valuations [3] - There is significant uncertainty on the supply side, and the follow - up supply - side policies and production line switching need continuous attention [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Summary by Related Questions How to view the decline of glass futures after National Day and the subsequent rebound - Before National Day, supply - side news stimulated downstream stockpiling; after National Day, the expectation was not fulfilled, leading to a decline in futures prices. Then, due to low valuation, cost support, and possible supply - side disturbances, the futures price rebounded [2] How to view the current dominant factors and trading logic of the glass market - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. With the low valuation, the market trades the strong expectation. The cost has increased, and it's difficult for the price to break the previous low. The fuel switch in Shahe may be a market focus [3] Whether the bottom of the glass market has appeared and the firmness of the bottom - The bottom of glass was considered to have appeared in June. Currently, due to policy and cost changes, it's hard for the market to break the previous low [4] Uncertainties in the glass market, variables in the fourth quarter, and how to grasp the later trend - Supply - side has great uncertainty, including the impact of anti - involution policies and the fuel switch in Shahe. Strategies include going long on glass at low positions, multi - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage, and holding short glass out - of - the - money put options [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for glass is experiencing a slight upward trend, but the overall demand remains weak due to challenges in the real estate sector [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Glass futures main contract closed at 1127.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.62% increase [1] - There has been no change in glass production lines, with operating rates and weekly supply remaining stable, leading to a continued rise in manufacturer inventory [1] - Year-on-year decline in glass production is narrowing, indicating a stabilization in supply [1] Demand Analysis - The real estate industry, the largest downstream demand sector for glass, is still in a sluggish state, posing significant pressure on future demand for glass [1] - Recent feedback from the terminal market shows a strong wait-and-see sentiment among homebuyers, difficulties in cash flow for real estate companies, and a decrease in new project starts, which weakens the demand pull for glass [1] Inventory Insights - Weekly inventory for float glass sample enterprises reached 66.613 million boxes, an increase of 2.3374 million boxes (3.64%) compared to the previous week [2] - Supply is slightly increasing, with a daily融 (融指) of 160,000 tons showing a slight loosening; expectations for improved demand in the fourth quarter are present, but the inventory reduction drive remains [2] - Short-term downstream orders are generally average, with demand resilience being moderate, and the improvement in order reception is still weak, leading to a slightly strong short-term fluctuation while waiting for demand validation [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, there is an expectation of crude steel production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate subsequently [3]. - The current iron ore market has a loose supply - demand balance, and prices are supported by macro - expectations. After the impact of macro events subsides, iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [23]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and the spot market is tight. Coke prices may be strong in the short term, but potential negative feedback risks from the steel industry will limit the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. There is a large de - stocking pressure, and the black negative feedback risk is increasing [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. With high - level supply expectations and high inventories, the upside potential is limited, but there is cost support at the bottom [62]. - After the price cut of glass, sales have improved, but the high inventory of the middle - stream is being depleted slowly. If there is no real production cut, the price of the 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, while there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, most steel futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up from 3091 yuan/ton on October 28 [4]. - **Spot prices and basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. The basis of some contracts decreased, such as the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai, which decreased from 129 yuan/ton on October 28 to 107 yuan/ton on October 29 [9]. - **Other ratios**: Ratios such as the volume - rebar difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio remained relatively stable [16][20]. Iron Ore - **Price data**: On October 29, 2025, iron ore futures contract prices increased compared with the previous day, while the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract closing price was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental data**: The average daily hot - metal production decreased slightly, the 45 - port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 14423.59 tons, and the global shipping volume increased slightly [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk prices and spreads**: Coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.5 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [40]. - **Spot prices and profits**: Coking coal and coke spot prices in different regions increased, and some import and production profits changed. The immediate coking profit increased from - 55 yuan/ton on October 28 to - 10 yuan/ton on October 29 [41]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron data**: Silicon - iron basis, spreads, and spot prices changed. The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 30 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [53]. - **Silicon - manganese data**: Silicon - manganese basis, spreads, and spot prices also changed. The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 62 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [55]. Soda Ash - **Disk prices and spreads**: Soda ash contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads changed. The soda ash 01 contract increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.61% [63]. - **Spot prices**: Soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on October 29, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash varied by region [66]. Glass - **Disk prices and spreads**: Glass contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads and basis changed. The glass 01 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.26% [91]. - **Sales data**: The sales in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the sales in Shahe on October 28 were 159 [92].

Group 1 - Company Guolian Co., Ltd. (SH 603613) announced its ninth board meeting on October 29, 2025, to review the third quarter report for 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Guolian's revenue composition is as follows: Petrochemical accounts for 56.12%, Grain and Oil Trade 16.11%, Sanitary Products 13.36%, Fertilizer 7.1%, and Glass 5.6% [1] - As of the report date, Guolian's market capitalization is 20.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has surpassed 4000 points, marking a significant resurgence after ten years of stagnation, with technology leading the market's transformation [1] - A new "slow bull" market pattern is emerging, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosts market confidence, and most varieties in the black sector showed an upward trend in the day and night sessions. Although policy implementation is long - term, market sentiment may be further boosted later. However, as the off - season approaches, the weakening of fundamentals is likely to limit the upward space of sector prices [1][2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - **Market Sentiment**: The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has a positive impact on market sentiment, and there is potential for further improvement [1][2][6] - **Industry Outlook**: In the medium term, the industry is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals may weaken as the off - season begins, restricting price increases [6] 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The marginal weakening expectation of the fundamentals remains. Due to Tangshan's production restrictions and seasonal maintenance, the decline in hot metal output is expected. The arrival of domestic ores will be stable, and inventory will increase marginally. However, considering the decrease in the weight of fundamental pricing and the warming of macro - expectations, there is still support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of ore prices [2] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and its price is expected to follow the trend of finished products in the short term [2][11] 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Environmental protection production restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited in Hebei. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and subsequent increments are limited. The middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low. With the positive macro - environment, there is support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of coal prices [2] 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost reduction is limited, and high steel production supports the price. However, the market has a pessimistic supply - demand expectation, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [3] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [3] 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, market expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound of the disk price. However, considering the inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, the restocking space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][15] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down to promote capacity reduction [3] 6. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The macro - environment is warm, but the actual steel inventory is high year - on - year, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant domestic policies and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [8] - **Iron Ore**: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and the disk price is strengthening. The fundamentals are slightly weakening, but overall contradictions are not significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume remains low, and the electric furnace profit is recovering. The price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [11] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are weakening, and the disk is oscillating. The impact of environmental protection production restrictions is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is low. The price is expected to oscillate with support for periodic upward movement [14] - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound, but the rebound space is limited. In the long - term, the price may oscillate downward [15] - **Soda Ash**: The output is increasing month - on - month, and the market is operating stably. It is expected to oscillate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term price is supported, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure [18] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is limited [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]