Oil Market - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing down $1.26 at $59.36 per barrel, a decline of 2.08% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.18 at $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [2] - EIA report indicated an increase in crude oil inventory by 3.6 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [2] - Gasoline inventory reached its highest level since 2021, with exports dropping by over 500,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the drone attack on a major Russian oil terminal, continue to impact oil prices [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 1.89% to 2592 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.65% to 3135 yuan/ton [3] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels (8.22%) week-on-week, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 13,600 barrels (1.35%) [3] - The market structure for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply from Venezuela [3][4] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.45% to 3157 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments increasing by 15.1% week-on-week [5] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers decreased by 0.5% week-on-week but increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] - The market is currently balancing weak demand with strong cost expectations, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 105 yuan/ton to 15850 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [6] - China's rubber tire production is projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year, while synthetic rubber production is expected to decline by 20.2% [6] - The rise in butadiene rubber prices is attributed to supply shortages and increased demand from tire manufacturers [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5298 yuan/ton, up 2.79%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 4.28% [7] - PX futures closed at 7390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase [7] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 73.04%, down 1.39% week-on-week [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2238 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $260 to $264 per ton [8] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [8] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to pressure from port inventory [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - HDPE and LDPE prices have increased compared to last week, indicating a recovery in demand [9] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday [9] PVC - PVC prices have increased across various regions, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4530 to 4630 yuan/ton [10] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing down, leading to a bearish outlook [10] - The market is expected to experience bottoming trends due to changes in export tax policies [10] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [11] - Demand is expected to remain strong due to pre-spring planting preparations, although market acceptance of prices will be crucial [11] - Urea inventory has decreased by 4.07%, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased to 1185 yuan/ton, with stable pricing in the market [12] - Recent production rates have shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease in output [12] - The market is expected to face pressure from rising supply and stable demand [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1057 yuan/ton, with stable demand observed [14] - The industry is preparing for potential production increases, but seasonal demand may decline as the holiday approaches [14] - Overall supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of inventory accumulation [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, there have been accidents in some steel mills, and environmental protection and production restrictions still exist, causing disturbances on the supply side. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment, the prices of furnace materials have stabilized, and there is support at the cost end. However, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more apparent, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside space of the market is limited. The prices of glass and soda ash have risen from low levels, but the oversupply situation continues to suppress the market prices [1][2]. - In general, the fundamentals during the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the replenishment intensity of downstream enterprises. At the same time, the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the prices of furnace materials still have the expectation of a rebound from low levels. Pay attention to the disturbances of macro - policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The current supply and demand on both sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - For coke, the cost end still has room for a rebound, and there are still expectations of steel mill production resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. For coking coal, the winter storage on the demand side is still ongoing, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited after the trading logic changes, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure above; however, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited. It is expected that the price will mainly operate at a low level around the cost valuation. For ferrosilicon, the current supply and demand in the market are both weak, the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the sector in the short term [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, there are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]. 3.5 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills continues to improve. The iron and steel production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weak, the inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season is obvious, and the fundamental contradictions are slowly accumulating. The supply side is disturbed, the cost side has support, but the upside of the market is under pressure. Pay attention to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [8]. 3.6 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have also declined. The supply side may be disturbed due to weather. The iron and steel production has increased slightly month - on - month, the steel mills' replenishment is in progress, but the enthusiasm is still weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are increasing, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the price. The current supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - The supply has recovered significantly, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [10]. 3.8 Coke - The supply has slightly increased, the demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory has increased steadily. The cost end still has room for a small rebound, the supply - demand structure may tighten, the spot price increase will be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12]. 3.9 Coking Coal - The domestic supply is stable, and the imported Mongolian coal has increased. The winter storage of coking enterprises is in progress, and the upstream inventory is being digested. The downstream inventory is gradually in place, and the spot market sentiment has cooled. The demand side's winter storage is still ongoing, the supply is expected to decline, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, the spot price still has a small upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.10 Glass - The macro is neutral. The supply is expected to decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the valuation. The supply may be disturbed, the current supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The macro is neutral. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [14][16]. 3.12 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The black sector is trending warmer, and the futures price of the main contract is moving stronger. The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the price is under pressure above. However, the current price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation. Pay attention to the adjustment of raw material prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15][16][18]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and the futures price of the main contract is following the sector to oscillate stronger. The cost is at a relatively high level and supports the price bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, the market trading activity is poor, and the futures price is expected to follow the black sector in the short term. Pay attention to the adjustment of blue carbon prices and settlement electricity prices and the production control trends in the main production areas [16][17]. 3.14 Commodity Index - On January 22, 2026, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.03% in the past month, and increased by 0.05% since the beginning of the year [103][104].

Group 1: Cement Industry - National cement production in December 2025 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year to 144 million tons, with an average national cement shipment rate of 41% [1] - December cement prices showed resilience, with a nationwide average price of 354 RMB per ton, up by 5 RMB month-on-month, leading to a recovery in industry profitability with a gross profit of 63 RMB per ton, an increase of 11 RMB [1] - The industry is expected to continue capacity replacement policies in 2026, which may lead to ongoing supply clearance; recommended companies include Conch Cement (600585.SH), Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) [1] Group 2: Glass Industry - The glass price continued to decline, with the average price of float glass at 1124 RMB per box as of January 15, 2026; companies are facing profitability pressure, leading to an accelerated cold repair process [2] - The housing completion area in 2025 decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 603 million square meters, and the processing days for glass in December decreased by 17% to 9 days [2] - Recommended companies in the glass sector include Qibin Group (601636.SH) and Xinyi Glass (00868) [2] Group 3: Steel Industry - In December, crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, down by 10.3% year-on-year, with apparent domestic crude steel consumption at approximately 61.15 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% [3] - The steel industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, with daily molten iron production dropping below 2.3 million tons, leading to fluctuations in black series spot prices [3] - The industry is expected to focus on structural opportunities in 2026, with recommendations for Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) for its differentiated production management and Tiangong International (00826) for its high-growth potential in specialty steel [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The resumption of production lines in the glass and soda ash sectors has led to a decline in their futures prices. The double - silicon market is suppressed by inventory, and the alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Group 3: Glass Market - Market performance: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in both futures and spot markets was cold [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has improved slightly, but the terminal rigid demand for float glass is difficult to break through in the off - season. In the short term, the glass futures maintain a premium. The glass industry still needs to reduce prices to further cut production due to high inventory. Future focus is on cold - repair and speculative activities [1] Group 4: Soda Ash Market - Market performance: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. The spot market was cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is increasing. New production capacity and the resumption of some devices have increased production, keeping the supply at a high level. The rigid demand from downstream float glass is average, and the demand improvement in photovoltaic glass is limited. If the weak fundamentals continue, soda ash will face further downward pressure. Future focus is on float glass production line changes and new soda ash production projects [1] Group 5: Silicomanganese Market - Market performance: The main contract of silicomanganese continued its weak oscillation yesterday, with limited price fluctuations and small trading volume changes. The 6517 silicomanganese price is 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but inventory pressure is still large, and new production capacity is being added. The supply - demand situation is still loose. There is an expected increase in pig iron production and pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills, which may improve demand. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Future focus is on manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Market - Market performance: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated yesterday. As the January steel procurement is coming to an end, the ferrosilicon market has adjusted slightly, with reduced enthusiasm from traders. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamental contradictions in the ferrosilicon market are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, demand is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected market sentiment, but the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity in the ferrosilicon industry will suppress price increases. Future focus is on inventory reduction and electricity price policies in production areas [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the significant potential of aerospace-grade UTG glass, which is expected to see increased demand due to its application in flexible solar wings for low-orbit satellites, driven by satellite functionality upgrades and cost reduction needs [2]. - The report notes that the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in relending and rediscount rates effective January 19, 2026, and lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%, indicating further room for interest rate cuts and expectations for lower mortgage rates within the year [2]. - The supply of low CTE fiberglass is currently tight, with Apple seeking alternative sources, while the special electronic fabric market is expected to remain robust due to the global shift towards AI led by Nvidia [2]. Group 2: Industry Overview - The aerospace-grade UTG glass is characterized by high technical barriers and a favorable competitive landscape, indicating a strong market position for companies involved in its production [2]. - The report emphasizes that the special electronic fabric industry is likely to maintain high prosperity levels, driven by ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from AI-related applications [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shortage of AI electronic cloth, particularly Low CTE electronic cloth, driven by increased demand from companies like Apple and Qualcomm for chip substrates and printed circuit boards. The only supplier, Nitto Denko, has not increased production capacity, creating opportunities for domestic companies like China National Materials and Honghe Technology to fill the gap and accelerate domestic substitution [5][6] - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to see an upward trend in prices from 2025 to 2026, following a period of price stabilization. The price of ordinary electronic cloth has risen from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [6] - Cement shipments have slightly increased due to seasonal demand recovery, while glass inventory has decreased. The average shipment rate for key domestic cement companies is around 40%, with a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [7][24] Summary by Sections Cement - In mid-January, cement demand has shown signs of recovery due to warmer temperatures in southern regions and pre-holiday construction rushes, with an average shipment rate of 40% for key cement companies, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month and 7.7 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - The national average cement price is 352.58 CNY/ton, down 4.68 CNY/ton month-on-month and down 55.97 CNY/ton year-on-year [24] - Cement inventory stands at 57.44%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points month-on-month [24] Glass - The national average price for glass is 62.61 CNY/weight box, up 0.63 CNY/weight box month-on-month but down 12.34 CNY/weight box year-on-year [37] - The total inventory of glass in key monitored provinces is 4,986 million weight boxes, a decrease of 209 million weight boxes month-on-month [36][37] Industry Outlook for 2026 - The report identifies three main lines for investment: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand in housing expected to drive industry demand back to historical highs [8] - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement recommended for their potential in overseas markets [8] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic cloth, with a focus on Low-Dk products and the significant opportunity for domestic substitution in Low CTE supply [8]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱，现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转，但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下，玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务，因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加，供应维持高位，高供应持续压 制纯碱价格；需求端，下游浮法玻璃刚需一般，光伏玻璃需求改善有限，刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局，叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导，纯碱将面临进一步下行压力，关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the production recovery of finished products is slowing down, the apparent consumption of rebar is rising, inventory is turning to destocking but may accumulate later, and the destocking of hot-rolled coils is accelerating but the increase in warehouse receipts is significant. The fundamentals are neutral, lacking drivers, and supported by the cost side, with limited downside space [3]. - For iron ore, the current dominant factor of its price is not its fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have the rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range shock [22]. - For coking coal and coke, the accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the disk and support steel prices. In the follow - up, the result of the incident should be concerned. If the incident leads to stricter supervision and production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot metal resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, the change in macro sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival should be focused on. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro sentiment", the long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [32]. - For ferroalloys, the ferroalloys are supported by the cost side at the bottom. In the short - term, after the correction, they may show a bottom - shock trend [47]. - For soda ash, the previous warming of commodity sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the disk price increased. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as the new production capacity gradually releases production, the daily output of soda ash reaches a new high, and the surplus expectation is also intensifying. At present, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate inventory, and the number of kiln blockages begins to increase. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In November, the export of soda ash was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle - streams restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - For glass, there are rumors that some production lines have the expectation of ignition, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, the actual demand and expectation are also weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. On the supply side, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired and ignited before the Spring Festival, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. In addition, the policy disturbance to the supply cannot be excluded. At present, the high inventory of the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, the terminal is in the off - season, and the spot pressure still exists [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3191 yuan/ton, down from 3215 yuan/ton on January 19; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down from 3344 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3329 yuan/ton, down from 3336 yuan/ton on January 19; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down from 3280 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 89 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was - 45 yuan/ton, up from - 64 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 - 05 rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton, down from 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of 01 contract was 757 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from January 19 and 73 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from January 19 and 32 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 basis was 48.5 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from January 19 and 84.5 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Fundamental Data**: - The daily average hot metal output on January 16, 2026, was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week and up 1.46 tons month - on - month [27]. - The 45 - port desilting volume on January 16, 2026, was 319.89 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week and up 6.44 tons month - on - month [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 162, down 1.5 from January 19; the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 111.5, down 28.5 from January 19 [34]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [37]. - **Profit**: The on - the - spot coking profit on January 20, 2026, was - 57 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from January 19 and 38 yuan from January 13 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 48 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from January 19; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [48]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 124, down 66 from January 19 [48]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan from January 19; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from January 19 [49]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 126, up 14 from January 19 [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1177 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.26% [62]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the light - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the Shahe heavy - soda basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 61, unchanged from January 19 [62]. Glass - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1056 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.31% [87]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 contract basis (Shahe) was - 234 yuan/ton, down 1234 yuan from January 19 [87]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 109, up 1 from January 19 [87]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of Shahe was 135, the sales - to - production ratio of Hubei was 90, the sales - to - production ratio of East China was 91, and the sales - to - production ratio of South China was 105 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].